The TDC Rating after every week of the season
Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result / TDC line | Game score | Win chance | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | vs 116Rice | W 14–7 | -6.1 | — | CBSSN |
| 2 | Sep 7 | @ 11Michigan | L 21–24 | +13.0 | — | FOX |
| 3 | Sep 14 | @ 123UTSA | W 31–13 | +6.4 | — | NFL Net |
| 4 | Sep 21 | vs Morgan State FCS | W 52–21 | +4.1 | — | CBSSN |
| 5 | — | Bye | ||||
| 6 | Oct 5 | vs 43Tulane | L 33–42 | -8.2 | — | CBSSN |
| 7 | Oct 12 | @ 68Western Kentucky | L 8–17 | -7.3 | — | |
| 8 | Oct 19 | @ 108Georgia State | L 21–28 | -11.6 | — | ESPN+ |
| 9 | Oct 26 | vs 104San José St | L 29–34 | -14.0 | — | CBSSN |
| 10 | Nov 2 | @ 25Air Force | L 13–17 | +7.0 | — | CBSSN |
| 11 | Nov 9 | vs 130Massachusetts | W 63–7 | +4.3 | — | CBSSN |
| 12 | Nov 16 | vs VMI FCS | W 47–6 | +7.6 | — | CBSSN |
| 13 | — | Bye | ||||
| 14 | Nov 30 | @ 77Hawai'i | L 31–52 | -20.2 | — | CBSSN |
| 15 | — | Bye | ||||
| 16 | Dec 14 | vs 23NavyNEUTRAL | L 7–31 | -15.5 | — | CBS |
Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted
| Stat | Offense | FBS rank | Defense (allowed) | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play) | ||||
| Success rate | 48.8% | 14th | 43.9% | 77th |
| Rushing success rate | 51.8% | 8th | 45.5% | 90th |
| Passing success rate | 34.6% | 114th | 41.9% | 72nd |
| Explosive run rate | 14.0% | 77th | 15.9% | 87th |
| Explosive pass rate | 13.7% | 21st | 11.4% | 73rd |
| Line yards / carry | 3.44 | 9th | 3.22 | 106th |
| Opportunity rate | 37.2% | 89th | 41.0% | 99th |
| Stuff rate | 9.8% | 1st | 15.2% | 113th |
| Sack rate | 8.8% | 113th | 5.8% | 72nd |
| 3rd-down conversion | 45.8% | 29th | 48.4% | 120th |
| Red-zone TD rate | 80.0% | 6th | 73.5% | 115th |
| Havoc rate | 7.4% | 3rd | 9.5% | 126th |
| Box score · season totals | ||||
| Points / game | 28.5 | 69th | 23.0 | 35th |
| Yards / game | 379.1 | 89th | — | — |
| Yards / play | 5.57 | 74th | — | — |
| Pass yards / game | 82.0 | 129th | — | — |
| Yards / pass att. | 8.46 | 20th | — | — |
| Completion % | 46.8% | 129th | — | — |
| Rush yards / game | 297.1 | 3rd | — | — |
| Yards / carry | 5.20 | 18th | — | — |
| 3rd-down conv. % | 45.0% | 24th | — | — |
| Turnovers / game (lost · forced) | 1.38 | 58th | — | — |
| Sacks / game (allowed · made) | 1.23 | 11th | — | — |
| Penalty yards / game | 38.1 | 8th | — | — |
70 players who recorded a stat in 2019 (from box scores)
Final ratings for 2019, built with the same model as the current season. ESPN’s 2019 box scores are missing most defensive stats, so players’ tackles, TFL, sacks and breakups are rebuilt from the play-by-play (they run about 10% below official totals). Ratings are in points on a neutral field. All 2019 power rankings →