FBS Power Rankings

RK▲	Team	Conf	W-L	Conf	Rating	Off	Def	SOS	Preseason	Δ	Off EPA	Def EPA	Off SR	Def SR
1	Notre Dame	Independent	7-1	—	+26.9	+12.8	+14.2	+0.5	+22.5	+4.4	0.367	-0.032	51.5%	36.7%
2	Ohio State	Big Ten	6-2	4-1	+26.4	+12.7	+13.7	+4.6	+25.7	+0.7	0.249	-0.027	49.4%	35.7%
3	Miami	ACC	8-0	6-0	+24.8	+17.4	+7.3	-1.8	+20.6	+4.2	0.445	0.101	53.5%	42.1%
4	LSU	SEC	6-2	3-2	+24.8	+13.6	+11.2	+5.0	+15.9	+8.9	0.281	-0.050	52.0%	32.9%
5	Georgia	SEC	7-1	5-1	+24.0	+12.6	+11.4	+2.8	+16.0	+8.0	0.279	-0.004	52.1%	35.0%
6	Indiana	Big Ten	8-1	5-1	+23.7	+8.9	+14.8	+2.3	+28.4	-4.7	0.279	-0.040	43.9%	33.1%
7	Alabama	SEC	6-2	4-2	+22.8	+13.0	+9.8	+10.9	+13.4	+9.4	0.257	-0.011	47.1%	37.7%
8	Utah	Big 12	8-0	5-0	+22.7	+13.2	+9.5	-0.4	+20.5	+2.2	0.324	0.001	52.2%	36.7%
9	Texas	SEC	6-2	3-2	+22.4	+8.3	+14.0	+12.8	+20.2	+2.2	0.059	-0.030	41.8%	33.5%
10	Ole Miss	SEC	6-2	4-2	+21.8	+13.8	+8.1	+10.6	+20.1	+1.7	0.257	0.158	49.0%	42.2%
11	Oregon	Big Ten	5-3	3-2	+19.2	+9.6	+9.6	+6.5	+21.4	-2.2	0.107	0.038	40.9%	38.0%
12	Texas Tech	Big 12	7-1	4-1	+17.8	+10.7	+7.1	-1.1	+23.1	-5.3	0.152	-0.018	46.2%	37.3%
13	Tennessee	SEC	6-2	3-2	+16.9	+7.9	+9.1	+3.3	+14.0	+2.9	0.138	-0.096	43.8%	37.6%
14	Wake Forest	ACC	7-1	5-1	+16.2	+7.7	+8.5	+1.5	+0.7	+15.5	0.367	0.048	49.6%	39.4%
15	Louisville	ACC	5-3	4-2	+16.2	+12.6	+3.6	+2.7	+12.6	+3.6	0.334	0.085	49.8%	40.7%
16	Iowa	Big Ten	6-2	3-2	+16.0	+4.3	+11.8	+1.4	+8.7	+7.3	0.143	0.014	45.5%	34.3%
17	UCLA	Big Ten	8-0	5-0	+15.5	+6.4	+9.2	+0.5	+6.1	+9.4	0.163	-0.206	46.4%	32.1%
18	Missouri	SEC	6-2	3-2	+15.0	+5.4	+9.6	+3.1	+10.2	+4.8	0.178	-0.013	41.3%	35.7%
19	Florida	SEC	5-3	3-3	+15.0	+9.7	+5.3	+8.5	+13.3	+1.7	0.218	0.092	44.8%	44.2%
20	Nebraska	Big Ten	5-3	2-3	+14.9	+5.9	+8.9	-0.5	+10.1	+4.8	0.195	-0.062	43.9%	33.4%
21	BYU	Big 12	7-1	4-1	+14.3	+6.1	+8.3	+2.1	+13.1	+1.2	0.240	0.032	46.2%	39.0%
22	Arizona	Big 12	6-2	3-2	+14.0	+6.5	+7.5	-2.2	+10.2	+3.8	0.249	-0.024	47.2%	35.9%
23	USC	Big Ten	7-2	4-2	+13.5	+9.1	+4.4	+5.2	+13.3	+0.2	0.247	0.122	50.1%	40.9%
24	Northwestern	Big Ten	6-2	3-2	+12.8	+7.0	+5.8	+0.3	+3.0	+9.8	0.337	0.061	50.2%	41.9%
25	Texas A&M	SEC	4-4	1-4	+12.8	+4.7	+8.2	+4.5	+16.0	-3.2	0.089	0.046	42.5%	39.4%
26	Penn State	Big Ten	4-4	1-4	+12.3	+4.3	+8.0	+0.8	+17.4	-5.1	0.140	0.068	41.3%	38.5%
27	Auburn	SEC	4-4	2-4	+12.3	+6.0	+6.3	+12.4	+19.0	-6.7	0.108	0.114	39.8%	43.5%
28	South Carolina	SEC	5-3	3-3	+12.1	+8.1	+4.0	+4.0	+8.5	+3.6	0.198	0.121	44.4%	41.1%
29	SMU	ACC	6-2	4-2	+11.9	+7.1	+4.8	-2.9	+12.9	-1.0	0.246	0.085	49.3%	38.6%
30	Kentucky	SEC	7-1	5-1	+11.9	+6.0	+5.9	+5.8	+0.7	+11.2	0.208	0.054	48.6%	44.2%
31	Oklahoma	SEC	4-4	2-3	+11.9	+2.7	+9.3	+8.2	+19.0	-7.1	-0.020	-0.058	36.2%	34.9%
32	Houston	Big 12	6-2	3-2	+11.8	+6.4	+5.4	+3.3	+0.3	+11.5	0.289	0.155	51.9%	43.6%
33	Wisconsin	Big Ten	5-3	3-2	+11.5	+1.9	+9.5	+5.1	+11.7	-0.2	0.092	-0.032	37.8%	39.4%
34	Baylor	Big 12	5-3	3-2	+10.2	+3.5	+6.6	+0.8	-0.8	+11.0	0.111	-0.080	38.7%	34.8%
35	Oklahoma State	Big 12	5-3	3-2	+9.2	+10.8	-1.6	+0.7	-0.4	+9.6	0.228	0.142	50.2%	42.5%
36	Boise State	Pac-12	7-1	4-0	+9.0	+6.8	+2.2	-2.9	+2.3	+6.7	0.308	0.056	47.5%	36.7%
37	Michigan	Big Ten	5-3	2-3	+8.4	-0.6	+8.9	+4.0	+9.7	-1.3	0.081	-0.077	41.3%	33.8%
38	Pittsburgh	ACC	6-3	3-3	+7.9	+2.8	+5.1	-0.3	+2.8	+5.1	0.145	0.021	43.5%	34.5%
39	Duke	ACC	6-2	3-2	+7.8	+2.8	+4.9	-4.2	+2.2	+5.6	0.235	0.015	42.5%	39.4%
40	Kansas	Big 12	3-5	1-4	+7.6	+4.4	+3.3	+2.0	+7.4	+0.2	0.084	0.055	40.1%	38.0%
41	Florida State	ACC	3-5	1-4	+7.3	+5.6	+1.7	+5.1	+9.4	-2.1	0.196	0.221	43.3%	42.9%
42	Illinois	Big Ten	5-3	3-2	+7.3	+4.7	+2.6	+1.3	+10.5	-3.2	0.218	0.249	46.6%	45.2%
43	Washington	Big Ten	5-3	2-3	+7.3	+2.0	+5.3	+0.8	+11.2	-3.9	0.111	-0.013	41.9%	40.0%
44	Kansas State	Big 12	4-4	1-4	+7.1	+4.7	+2.4	-1.6	+9.6	-2.5	0.164	0.149	45.1%	37.3%
45	Mississippi State	SEC	4-4	2-4	+6.7	+5.2	+1.5	+11.2	-0.7	+7.4	0.099	0.146	43.3%	43.7%
46	TCU	Big 12	4-4	2-3	+6.3	-2.6	+9.0	+0.1	+4.4	+1.9	0.080	-0.065	41.0%	34.2%
47	Virginia	ACC	4-5	2-4	+5.9	+0.5	+5.5	+0.9	+11.9	-6.0	0.151	0.124	43.0%	41.2%
48	New Mexico	Mountain West	7-1	4-0	+5.8	+1.7	+4.1	-12.8	-3.0	+8.8	0.110	-0.181	42.7%	30.0%
49	Virginia Tech	ACC	6-2	3-2	+5.6	+4.5	+1.1	-5.7	+5.6	0.0	0.202	0.073	44.7%	38.6%
50	North Carolina	ACC	4-4	2-3	+5.0	+2.2	+2.8	+6.3	-7.1	+12.1	0.145	0.075	47.7%	44.3%
51	Iowa State	Big 12	4-4	2-3	+4.9	+3.2	+1.7	+3.6	+5.7	-0.8	0.139	0.175	39.1%	44.3%
52	Minnesota	Big Ten	5-3	3-2	+4.8	-0.4	+5.2	+1.5	+6.8	-2.0	0.001	0.012	36.7%	39.4%
53	Arizona State	Big 12	4-4	2-3	+4.7	+3.6	+1.2	+3.6	+5.0	-0.3	0.047	0.058	41.9%	39.6%
54	Clemson	ACC	5-3	3-2	+4.6	-1.9	+6.5	+3.1	+7.3	-2.7	-0.015	0.024	36.3%	40.7%
55	Cincinnati	Big 12	5-3	2-3	+4.6	+4.6	+0.1	+2.6	+2.9	+1.7	0.275	0.198	46.6%	46.4%
56	North Texas	American	6-2	4-0	+3.7	+9.6	-5.9	-6.7	-1.5	+5.2	0.364	0.133	49.5%	44.0%
57	UCF	Big 12	4-4	2-3	+3.6	+0.8	+2.8	+2.3	+1.2	+2.4	0.065	0.063	41.1%	41.1%
58	Memphis	American	7-2	4-1	+3.4	+4.5	-1.1	-9.6	-0.2	+3.6	0.236	0.093	50.3%	37.8%
59	James Madison	Sun Belt	7-2	4-2	+3.1	+2.8	+0.3	-11.2	-1.8	+4.9	0.180	-0.014	43.3%	37.6%
60	Texas State	Pac-12	4-4	2-2	+2.9	+6.4	-3.5	-2.9	-1.8	+4.7	0.268	0.169	49.3%	44.4%
61	Liberty	CUSA	7-1	4-0	+2.8	+0.7	+2.2	-14.3	-10.9	+13.7	0.226	-0.076	49.7%	33.1%
62	Oregon State	Pac-12	5-3	3-1	+2.4	+3.1	-0.7	-7.3	-15.0	+17.4	0.267	0.108	48.8%	40.2%
63	Colorado	Big 12	3-5	1-4	+2.2	-1.1	+3.2	+5.9	+5.7	-3.5	0.065	0.080	39.9%	40.5%
64	Vanderbilt	SEC	3-5	0-5	+2.2	+0.5	+1.8	+4.2	+11.9	-9.7	0.077	0.163	40.2%	44.7%
65	Syracuse	ACC	4-4	2-4	+2.0	+1.9	+0.2	+0.9	-3.4	+5.4	0.072	0.121	42.3%	43.6%
66	Michigan State	Big Ten	2-6	0-5	+2.0	-0.4	+2.5	+8.9	+2.7	-0.7	-0.031	0.171	41.8%	44.7%
67	NC State	ACC	4-4	2-3	+1.9	+3.2	-1.3	-2.0	+1.9	0.0	0.202	0.169	44.9%	42.6%
68	Arkansas	SEC	3-5	1-4	+1.3	+0.2	+1.1	+7.2	+4.1	-2.8	0.025	0.196	42.9%	43.0%
69	West Virginia	Big 12	5-3	2-3	+0.5	+6.2	-5.8	+0.5	-1.6	+2.1	0.181	0.257	42.8%	47.2%
70	UTSA	American	7-1	4-0	+0.4	+2.9	-2.4	-5.7	-4.0	+4.4	0.214	0.106	46.8%	40.6%
71	Purdue	Big Ten	3-5	2-3	+0.4	+3.1	-2.7	+7.6	-5.4	+5.8	0.181	0.258	43.2%	46.9%
72	North Dakota State	Mountain West	7-2	4-2	+0.1	-3.2	+3.3	-13.4	-1.4	+1.5	0.105	-0.134	40.1%	35.1%
73	Louisiana Tech	Sun Belt	6-2	4-0	-0.7	-1.4	+0.7	-6.4	-8.1	+7.4	0.177	0.000	42.7%	37.9%
74	South Florida	American	6-2	2-2	-1.5	-2.8	+1.3	-13.9	+3.1	-4.6	0.107	0.008	45.5%	40.4%
75	Fresno State	Pac-12	5-3	2-2	-1.6	-1.8	+0.2	-6.2	-5.2	+3.6	0.113	0.038	40.0%	42.3%
76	Army	American	5-3	4-2	-2.1	+1.2	-3.3	-7.7	-6.2	+4.1	0.297	0.269	49.1%	47.6%
77	Toledo	MAC	6-2	3-1	-2.1	+0.3	-2.5	-13.2	-6.3	+4.2	0.237	-0.016	45.0%	33.8%
78	Georgia Tech	ACC	2-6	1-4	-2.3	+0.6	-2.9	-0.4	+4.6	-6.9	0.124	0.212	42.5%	44.1%
79	Maryland	Big Ten	2-6	0-5	-2.3	-0.7	-1.6	+3.7	+0.8	-3.1	0.041	0.169	39.3%	44.4%
80	UConn	Independent	4-4	—	-2.9	+0.6	-3.5	-11.0	-6.5	+3.6	0.229	0.088	44.8%	43.1%
81	Boston College	ACC	4-4	2-3	-3.8	-3.3	-0.5	-0.2	-4.9	+1.1	0.038	0.049	41.1%	40.9%
82	Western Michigan	MAC	6-3	4-1	-3.9	-3.7	-0.2	-11.6	-3.9	0.0	0.109	0.071	41.1%	42.3%
83	East Carolina	American	4-4	2-2	-4.5	-4.4	0.0	-8.1	-0.6	-3.9	0.053	0.018	39.3%	36.6%
84	Navy	American	2-6	1-4	-5.2	-2.3	-2.9	-4.2	-7.9	+2.7	0.199	0.207	47.4%	42.2%
85	Air Force	Mountain West	6-2	3-2	-5.4	-2.8	-2.6	-11.3	-9.1	+3.7	0.208	0.103	49.4%	40.8%
86	Utah State	Pac-12	3-5	2-2	-5.5	-7.6	+2.0	-2.5	-4.7	-0.8	0.017	0.038	37.9%	39.9%
87	Ohio	MAC	6-2	4-0	-5.8	-3.5	-2.3	-14.4	-8.9	+3.1	0.211	0.102	48.1%	40.1%
88	UNLV	Mountain West	5-3	3-1	-5.9	-4.0	-1.9	-7.4	-3.6	-2.3	0.114	0.083	39.7%	41.0%
89	Louisiana	Sun Belt	5-3	2-2	-5.9	-4.0	-1.8	-11.3	-15.0	+9.1	0.096	-0.031	42.4%	41.6%
90	Tulane	American	4-4	2-2	-6.3	-6.5	+0.2	-4.1	-0.5	-5.8	0.111	0.114	35.8%	42.4%
91	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	4-4	3-1	-6.3	-5.0	-1.4	-6.6	-15.5	+9.2	0.152	0.054	44.1%	38.9%
92	Tulsa	American	4-4	1-3	-6.5	-3.6	-3.0	-7.0	-13.9	+7.4	0.183	0.075	39.9%	40.9%
93	California	ACC	3-6	2-4	-6.7	-2.0	-4.7	+2.5	+0.8	-7.5	-0.039	0.175	36.8%	41.0%
94	Rutgers	Big Ten	2-6	1-4	-7.1	+0.5	-7.6	+0.5	-3.3	-3.8	0.110	0.292	42.7%	48.9%
95	Jacksonville State	CUSA	6-2	4-0	-7.1	-3.1	-4.1	-13.1	-10.4	+3.3	0.182	0.081	47.3%	41.4%
96	Washington State	Pac-12	1-8	0-5	-7.6	-6.6	-1.0	-0.7	-3.7	-3.9	-0.050	0.149	36.2%	41.2%
97	Miami (OH)	MAC	5-3	3-1	-8.1	-4.5	-3.6	-11.7	-8.8	+0.7	0.153	0.099	41.0%	40.9%
98	San Diego State	Pac-12	4-5	3-2	-9.6	-3.8	-5.8	-3.4	-0.7	-8.9	0.040	0.138	37.4%	48.9%
99	Florida Atlantic	American	5-3	2-2	-9.8	+0.9	-10.6	-8.9	-11.9	+2.1	0.229	0.274	46.9%	44.4%
100	Stanford	ACC	4-5	2-4	-9.9	-5.0	-4.8	+5.6	-5.1	-4.8	0.153	0.329	38.9%	48.5%
101	Delaware	CUSA	4-4	2-2	-9.9	-2.4	-7.5	-9.8	-11.4	+1.5	0.194	0.140	43.5%	45.1%
102	Temple	American	2-6	1-3	-10.2	-4.7	-5.5	-6.7	-11.5	+1.3	0.175	0.188	43.1%	46.1%
103	Nevada	Mountain West	3-5	2-2	-10.2	-8.2	-2.0	-11.8	-15.2	+5.0	0.016	0.096	38.9%	37.3%
104	App State	Sun Belt	5-3	2-2	-10.2	-5.8	-4.4	-10.5	-18.2	+8.0	0.096	0.087	40.9%	41.6%
105	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	4-4	2-2	-10.7	-3.5	-7.2	-9.6	-14.2	+3.5	0.159	0.160	46.6%	45.0%
106	South Alabama	Sun Belt	4-4	2-2	-10.8	-0.5	-10.3	-9.6	-13.7	+2.9	0.154	0.237	42.4%	49.2%
107	Troy	Sun Belt	4-4	2-2	-11.0	-7.0	-4.1	-10.2	-13.3	+2.3	0.024	0.027	38.7%	39.7%
108	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	3-5	2-2	-11.3	-5.4	-5.9	-9.6	-14.7	+3.4	0.127	0.137	40.6%	44.8%
109	Hawai'i	Mountain West	2-6	1-4	-11.5	-7.2	-4.3	-9.2	-9.4	-2.1	0.069	0.184	41.2%	43.6%
110	Marshall	Sun Belt	5-3	2-2	-11.8	-4.4	-7.4	-10.6	-5.4	-6.4	0.113	0.192	43.9%	42.8%
111	Georgia State	Sun Belt	4-4	1-3	-11.8	-2.5	-9.3	-11.6	-24.2	+12.4	0.204	0.093	45.3%	39.6%
112	Kennesaw State	CUSA	2-6	1-3	-12.5	-8.5	-4.0	-9.3	-13.7	+1.2	0.067	0.103	42.1%	42.7%
113	UAB	American	4-4	2-2	-13.2	-7.4	-5.8	-7.5	-17.0	+3.8	0.028	0.009	39.7%	42.5%
114	Old Dominion	Sun Belt	2-7	1-5	-13.5	-11.3	-2.3	-7.4	-2.3	-11.2	-0.153	0.005	31.8%	38.7%
115	Western Kentucky	CUSA	3-5	2-2	-13.7	-6.8	-6.9	-6.4	-8.7	-5.0	0.017	0.148	38.3%	41.4%
116	Colorado State	Pac-12	3-5	1-3	-13.7	+0.5	-14.2	-5.0	-13.5	-0.2	0.270	0.358	46.7%	53.8%
117	Rice	American	1-7	0-4	-14.1	-7.8	-6.3	-3.6	-16.1	+2.0	0.027	0.153	40.6%	42.7%
118	Missouri State	CUSA	3-5	2-2	-14.5	-6.1	-8.4	-9.0	-14.5	0.0	0.092	0.225	41.2%	46.9%
119	Florida International	CUSA	3-5	1-3	-14.6	-11.2	-3.4	-12.4	-13.2	-1.4	0.009	0.052	39.0%	40.0%
120	Wyoming	Mountain West	5-3	4-1	-14.9	-10.7	-4.2	-14.2	-14.8	-0.1	0.134	0.129	46.1%	44.9%
121	Southern Miss	Sun Belt	3-5	2-2	-15.6	-6.9	-8.7	-9.8	-20.2	+4.6	0.024	0.135	40.4%	42.5%
122	Central Michigan	MAC	3-5	1-3	-15.7	-9.7	-6.0	-6.6	-13.9	-1.8	0.049	0.186	39.4%	46.8%
123	San José State	Mountain West	4-5	2-3	-15.7	-10.4	-5.3	-10.0	-21.5	+5.8	0.060	0.042	36.8%	43.4%
124	Eastern Michigan	MAC	4-5	3-2	-15.8	-9.0	-6.8	-11.8	-14.3	-1.5	0.028	0.133	39.0%	43.0%
125	New Mexico State	CUSA	3-5	2-2	-15.9	-9.8	-6.2	-10.3	-17.9	+2.0	-0.036	0.060	38.6%	40.0%
126	Buffalo	MAC	5-3	3-1	-18.2	-10.7	-7.6	-13.1	-19.5	+1.3	0.038	0.090	35.8%	39.1%
127	Bowling Green	MAC	2-7	2-3	-18.3	-12.0	-6.3	-10.0	-15.8	-2.5	-0.009	0.138	39.9%	44.4%
128	Massachusetts	MAC	4-4	1-3	-18.4	-11.0	-7.5	-17.4	-32.6	+14.2	0.127	0.005	41.1%	39.1%
129	Sam Houston	CUSA	1-7	0-4	-18.9	-12.2	-6.7	-8.9	-21.7	+2.8	-0.048	0.084	36.5%	39.3%
130	Middle Tennessee	CUSA	4-4	2-2	-20.0	-9.1	-10.9	-11.0	-23.2	+3.2	0.094	0.143	40.3%	45.3%
131	Ball State	MAC	3-5	2-2	-20.4	-9.0	-11.4	-7.4	-25.2	+4.8	0.110	0.238	39.6%	42.3%
132	Akron	MAC	1-7	0-4	-20.5	-9.1	-11.4	-9.7	-18.8	-1.7	0.055	0.231	40.8%	43.8%
133	Northern Illinois	Mountain West	0-8	0-4	-21.9	-9.8	-12.1	-6.2	-17.2	-4.7	-0.007	0.333	38.5%	52.4%
134	Charlotte	American	1-7	1-3	-23.2	-9.6	-13.6	-4.2	-21.5	-1.7	0.019	0.255	38.3%	49.1%
135	Kent State	MAC	3-6	2-3	-23.6	-13.8	-9.7	-7.9	-23.4	-0.2	-0.073	0.088	33.7%	43.5%
136	UL Monroe	Sun Belt	1-7	1-3	-23.8	-12.6	-11.2	-10.5	-21.4	-2.4	-0.052	0.201	40.7%	44.1%
137	UTEP	Mountain West	1-7	0-4	-25.5	-12.4	-13.1	-3.4	-23.9	-1.6	-0.098	0.264	33.1%	47.9%
138	Sacramento State	MAC	2-7	1-5	-27.4	-15.0	-12.5	-14.8	-19.5	-7.9	-0.101	0.086	35.9%	39.0%

How the rating works. Each game's points are modelled as offense against the opposing defense, with 3.7 points of home field solved from the data. A game counts 70% on the final score and 30% on the score its play-by-play says it should have been (success rate, yards per play, explosive plays, turnovers; garbage time dropped), which takes some of the luck out. Every FCS opponent gets its own rating from its own games. The preseason rating projects each team from its last two seasons, how much production returns (the quarterback most of all) and what transfers bring in, and it fades as games are played. Tested week by week on every game since 2019, predicting each week from only the games before it, the spread misses the final margin by 12.6 points on average. The closing betting line misses by 12.2.