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Big Ten · 2026

Oregon Ducks

Head coach Dan Lanning · Autzen Stadium
5-33-2 in conference
TDC Rank
#11
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
+19.2
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
+9.6
13th in FBS
Defense
+9.6
9th in FBS
Schedule so far
+6.5
11th toughest
Projected
7.7-4.3
bowl-eligible >99%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

+19.2 now, +21.4 preseason · down 6 spots since preseason
0+10+20FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8Wk 9#11

Final record odds

7.7-4.3 expected · most likely 8-4 (52%)
6%6-628%7-552%8-414%9-3

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Dylan Raiola
QB · JR · 113th in FBS
1097yds
9 TD · 2 INT
Rushing
Jordon Davison
RB · SO · 110th in FBS
439yds
91 car · 7 TD
Receiving
Dakorien Moore
WR · SO · 55th in FBS
545yds
41 rec · 6 TD
Tackles
Koi Perich
DB · JR · 162nd in FBS
53tkl
0.5 TFL
Sacks
Matayo Uiagalelei
LB · 26th in FBS
5.5sacks
6 hurries
Interceptions
Koi Perich
DB · JR · 49th in FBS
2INT
1 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 5vs36Boise StateW 34–27 ›+12.3—CBS
2Sep 12@35Oklahoma StateL 31–39 ›+4.9—ESPNEWS
3Sep 18vsPortland State FCSW 84–0 ›+4.6—BTN
4Sep 26@23USCCONFW 41–27 ›+31.2—NBC
5—Bye
6Oct 10vs17UCLACONFL 15–17 ›+9.8—CBS
7Oct 17vs20NebraskaCONFW 17–14 ›+14.2—Fox
8Oct 24@42IllinoisCONFL 10–21 ›0.0—BTN
9Oct 31vs24NorthwesternCONFW 34–26 ›+17.1—Peacock
10Nov 7@2Ohio StateCONFOhio State −10.9 · o/u 52.3—23%CBS
11Nov 14vs37MichiganCONFOregon −14.6 · o/u 43.8—84%FS1
12Nov 20@66Michigan StateCONFOregon −13.5 · o/u 50.4—82%Fox
13Nov 28vs43WashingtonCONFOregon −15.6 · o/u 50.0—85%

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.10784th+0.03840th
Success rate40.9%90th38.0%32nd
Explosiveness1.31734th1.25877th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate41.4%87th37.8%28th
Rushing success rate43.4%72nd38.2%31st
Passing success rate39.9%89th37.4%32nd
Explosive run rate12.7%91st10.8%37th
Explosive pass rate12.1%36th10.5%83rd
Line yards / carry2.88111th2.8545th
Opportunity rate36.8%100th34.7%40th
Stuff rate21.2%120th17.5%76th
Sack rate2.6%14th6.3%55th
3rd-down conversion35.1%114th33.3%20th
Red-zone TD rate65.4%49th45.8%18th
Havoc rate14.1%89th15.8%30th
Box score · season totals
Points / game33.338th21.447th
Yards / game425.436th341.852nd
Yards / play6.0244th4.9945th
Pass yards / game285.014th208.061st
Yards / pass att.7.9045th6.7148th
Completion %65.5%41st55.2%14th
Rush yards / game140.492nd133.858th
Yards / carry4.3074th3.8151st
3rd-down conv. %36.0%100th31.4%22nd
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)1.62113th1.5032nd
Sacks / game (allowed · made)1.3831st2.3844th
Penalty yards / game48.338th42.4125th

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
7.9
106th of 138
YAC per catch
6.3
27th of 138
Deep shots (20+)
14%
76th of 138
Shotgun
92%
98th of 138
No-huddle
41%
87th of 138
QB pressured
9%
124th of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
19%
7th of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
5.1
76th of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws278 throws charted

65% comp7.9 avg. depth6.3 YAC/catch14% 20+ air yds18–3 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 24 throws (9%), 18 caught (75%), 83 yds, 3.5 per throw2475% · 83yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 13 throws (5%), 7 caught (54%), 83 yds, 6.4 per throw1354% · 83yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 19 throws (7%), 14 caught (74%), 116 yds, 6.1 per throw1974% · 116yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 5 caught (71%), 56 yds, 8.0 per throw771% · 56yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 11 throws (4%), 5 caught (45%), 103 yds, 9.4 per throw1145% · 103yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 9 throws (3%), 2 caught (22%), 51 yds, 5.7 per throw922% · 51yLeft, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (1%), 1 caught (25%), 36 yds, 9.0 per throw425% · 36yMiddle, Behind air yards: 5 throws (2%), 5 caught (100%), 79 yds, 15.8 per throw5100% · 79yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 14 throws (5%), 11 caught (79%), 73 yds, 5.2 per throw1479% · 73yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 15 throws (5%), 9 caught (60%), 150 yds, 10.0 per throw1560% · 150yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 1 caught (20%), 12 yds, 2.4 per throw520% · 12yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 6 caught (60%), 149 yds, 14.9 per throw1060% · 149yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 4 caught (57%), 157 yds, 22.4 per throw757% · 157yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (1%), 2 caught (67%), 83 yds, 27.7 per throw367% · 83yRight, Behind air yards: 31 throws (11%), 29 caught (94%), 185 yds, 6.0 per throw3194% · 185yRight, 0–4 air yards: 39 throws (14%), 31 caught (79%), 220 yds, 5.6 per throw3979% · 220yRight, 5–9 air yards: 27 throws (10%), 15 caught (56%), 115 yds, 4.3 per throw2756% · 115yRight, 10–14 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 4 caught (40%), 60 yds, 6.0 per throw1040% · 60yRight, 15–19 air yards: 9 throws (3%), 6 caught (67%), 123 yds, 13.7 per throw967% · 123yRight, 20–29 air yards: 8 throws (3%), 4 caught (50%), 89 yds, 11.1 per throw850% · 89yRight, 30+ air yards: 8 throws (3%), 3 caught (38%), 125 yds, 15.6 per throw838% · 125y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on237 throws charted

55% comp8.0 avg. depth5.1 YAC/catch11% 20+ air yds12–10 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 19 throws (8%), 17 caught (89%), 94 yds, 4.9 per throw1989% · 94yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 25 throws (11%), 12 caught (48%), 51 yds, 2.0 per throw2548% · 51yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 15 throws (6%), 10 caught (67%), 116 yds, 7.7 per throw1567% · 116yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 9 throws (4%), 3 caught (33%), 36 yds, 4.0 per throw933% · 36yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 11 throws (5%), 2 caught (18%), 40 yds, 3.6 per throw1118% · 40yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 4 caught (80%), 119 yds, 23.8 per throw580% · 119yLeft, 30+ air yards: 1 throws (0%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0yMiddle, Behind air yards: 3 throws (1%), 1 caught (33%), 4 yds, 1.3 per throw333% · 4yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 11 throws (5%), 4 caught (36%), 18 yds, 1.6 per throw1136% · 18yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 9 throws (4%), 5 caught (56%), 41 yds, 4.6 per throw956% · 41yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 18 throws (8%), 11 caught (61%), 219 yds, 12.2 per throw1861% · 219yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 5 caught (83%), 107 yds, 17.8 per throw683% · 107yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw20% · 0yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (2%), 4 caught (80%), 209 yds, 41.8 per throw580% · 209yRight, Behind air yards: 16 throws (7%), 11 caught (69%), 47 yds, 2.9 per throw1669% · 47yRight, 0–4 air yards: 33 throws (14%), 18 caught (55%), 126 yds, 3.8 per throw3355% · 126yRight, 5–9 air yards: 18 throws (8%), 11 caught (61%), 83 yds, 4.6 per throw1861% · 83yRight, 10–14 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 6 caught (60%), 67 yds, 6.7 per throw1060% · 67yRight, 15–19 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 6 caught (60%), 116 yds, 11.6 per throw1060% · 116yRight, 20–29 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 3 caught (43%), 84 yds, 12.0 per throw743% · 84yRight, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (2%), 1 caught (25%), 39 yds, 9.8 per throw425% · 39y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction238 carries

Left
19%
4.8 YPC · 46% succ.
Middle
58%
4.9 YPC · 45% succ.
Right
23%
5.3 YPC · 48% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced255 carries

Left
17%
5.3 YPC · 44% succ.
Middle
59%
3.8 YPC · 30% succ.
Right
24%
6.8 YPC · 56% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Dan Lanning

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
5Dante MooreQBSR6' 3"220Detroit, MI
8Dylan RaiolaQBJR6' 3"232Buford, GA
11Akili Smith Jr.QBSO6' 5"245San Diego, CA
12Brock ThomasQBSR5' 11"182Eugene, OR
14Ryder HayesQBJR6' 2"202Grandview, TX
16TC ManumaleunaQBFR6' 0"188Salem, OR
0Jordon DavisonRBSO6' 0"225Santa Ana, CA
4Tradarian BallRBFR5' 10"192Texarkana, TX
6Dierre Hill Jr.RBSO5' 11"205Centralia, IL
21Da'Jaun RiggsRBJR6' 0"205Washington, DC
22Simeon PriceRBSR6' 0"225Pensacola, FL
26Brandon SmithRBFR6' 0"203Fresno, CA
27Killian SombeRBFR5' 10"208Portland, OR
40Zander QuinnRBSR5' 7"179Hilo, HI
1Dakorien MooreWRSO5' 11"195Duncanville, TX
2Iverson HooksWRSR5' 10"170Pike Road, AL
3Jeremiah McClellanWRJR6' 0"190St. Louis, MO
7Evan StewartWRSR6' 0"178Memphis, TN
10Jalen LottWRFR6' 0"180Frisco, TX
13Gatlin BairWRFR6' 2"204Burley, ID
15Messiah HamptonWRFR6' 1"190Rochester, NY
30Aaron BidwellWRSO6' 4"193Eugene, OR
80Dillon GreshamWRJR6' 0"190Hemet, CA
82Nathan McCoy IIWRSO5' 10"185Dallas, TX
83Hudson LewisWRFR5' 10"175Boise, ID
84Jovon McRae IIWRSO6' 2"223Camden, NJ
88Jack ResslerWRJR5' 10"204Irvine, CA
89Brady BidwellWRJR6' 3"214Eugene, OR
9Jamari JohnsonTESR6' 5"255Inglewood, CA
17Markus DixonTESR6' 4"255Philadelphia, PA
18Kendre HarrisonTEFR6' 7"250Reidsville, NC
19Andrew OleshTESO6' 5"235Center Valley, PA
81Dayton RaiolaTEFR6' 1"244Buford, GA
85Cole NewtonTEFR6' 4"216Tualatin, OR
87A.J. PuglianoTEJR6' 3"245Medford, OR
50Demetri ManningOLSO6' 6"345Bellevue, WA
53Devin BrooksOLJR6' 4"285Clackamas, OR
54Aiden LeweyOLFR6' 4"281Eugene, OR
56Trent FergusonOLJR6' 7"322Salem, OR
57Zac StascauskyOLSO6' 6"310Portland, OR
58Ziyare AddisonOLSO6' 5"311Tampa, FL
59Fox CraderOLJR6' 6"311Vancouver, WA
65Solomon KroekerOLFR6' 6"297Lake Oswego, OR
66Bryce BoultonOLSR6' 2"295Palm Desert, CA
67Beau CressAllenOLSR6' 4"303Portland, OR
68Auston MimsOLSR6' 2"303Akron, OH
70Koloi KeliOLFR6' 3"310Honolulu, HI
72Iapani LalouluOLSR6' 2"325Honolulu, HI
73Kawika RogersOLSR6' 5"325Kapaa, HI
74Dave IuliOLSR6' 3"335Puyallup, WA
75Michael Bennett IIIOLSR6' 5"320Atlanta, GA
79Immanuel IheanachoOLFR6' 6"365Baltimore, MD
0D'Antre RobinsonDLJR6' 4"307Orlando, FL
1Bear AlexanderDLSR6' 3"316Terrell, TX
28Anthony Jones Jr.DLFR6' 3"301Mobile, AL
32Tony CumberlandDLFR6' 4"284Columbus, OH
42Aydin BrelandDLJR6' 5"315Santa Ana, CA
47Elijah RushingDLJR6' 6"290Tucson, AZ
55Matthew JohnsonDLSO6' 5"319Concord, CA
90Anthony JonesDLFR6' 4"323Irvine, CA
91Derrick Brown Jr.DLSR6' 5"300Fort Washington, MD
99Jerome SimmonsDLSR6' 4"330Bamberg, SC
6Jerry MixonLBSR6' 2"241San Francisco, CA
9Devon JacksonLBSR6' 2"242Omaha, NE
13Gavin NixLBSO6' 0"232Bradenton, FL
19Braylon HodgeLBFR6' 3"211Englewood, CO
23Brayden PlattLBJR6' 2"230Yelm, WA
25Tristan PhillipsLBFR6' 3"220Ventura, CA
27Bleu DantzlerLBSO6' 2"248Chandler, AZ
34Cruz RushingLBSR6' 1"233Tucson, AZ
35Brody ThomasLBSO6' 2"224Eugene, OR
38Will StratonLBSR6' 0"214Honolulu, HI
39Cole ThomasLBFR6' 1"212Portland, OR
41Dutch HoriskLBFR6' 2"250Bellflower, CA
45Hudson CoeLBFR6' 3"244Portland, OR
51Prince TavizonLBFR6' 3"264San Diego, CA
2Na'eem OffordDBSO6' 1"195Birmingham, AL
3Koi PerichDBJR6' 1"202Esko, MN
4Brandon Finney Jr.DBSO6' 2"205Owings Mills, MD
5Davon BenjaminDBFR5' 11"196Westlake Village, CA
7Ify ObidegwuDBJR6' 1"201Baltimore, MD
8Trey McNuttDBSO6' 0"193Cleveland, OH
14Aaron Scott Jr.DBJR6' 0"196Springfield, OH
16Azel BanagDBFR5' 11"180Columbia, SC
18Dorian BrewDBSO6' 0"190Conroe, TX
20Xavier LherisseDBFR5' 10"191Melbourne, FL
21Aaron FlowersDBJR6' 0"208Forney, TX
22Devin JacksonDBFR6' 2"198Winter Garden, FL
29Arlo HendersonDBJR5' 10"200Yelm, WA
30Xavier BarksdaleDBSR6' 2"182San Diego, CA
33Zach GrishamDBSR5' 11"204Portland, OR
37Braxton SingletonDBFR6' 2"207Salem, OR
25Rocco GrazianoPKSO6' 2"211Eugene, OR
35Keaton EmmettPKJR6' 0"179Lake Oswego, OR
97Gage HurychPKJR6' 1"191West Linn, OR
36Michael SbuttoniPFR5' 9"192Ballston Lake, NY
39Bailey EttridgePSO5' 11"216Lara, Australia
49Jack NicoliPFR6' 2"204Salem, OR
64Thomas DonkerbrookLSFR6' 3"200Phoenix, AZ
71RJ ToddLSSR6' 1"222Rockford, MI

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2014 (+19.7, #1) · worst: 2016 (-1.0, #69)
0+10+20FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#5
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far5-33-2#11+19.2+9.6+9.6
202513-28-1#5+17.7+9.8+7.9
202413-19-0#6+15.7+9.4+6.3
202312-28-1#3+18.2+9.2+8.9
202210-37-2#14+9.1+8.1+1.0
202110-47-2#48+4.3+3.8+0.5
20204-33-2#29+5.8+3.1+2.7
201912-28-1#12+13.3+5.0+8.4
20189-45-4#42+4.2+3.7+0.5
20177-64-5#48+3.6+4.3-0.8
20164-82-7#69-1.0+8.6-9.6
20159-47-2#25+8.6+14.7-6.1
201413-28-1#1+19.7+13.5+6.2

Oregon's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Nov 3, 12:25 PM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →