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Pac-12 · 2026

Boise State Broncos

Head coach Spencer Danielson · Albertsons Stadium
7-14-0 in conference
TDC Rank
#36
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
+9.0
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
+6.8
23rd in FBS
Defense
+2.2
52nd in FBS
Schedule so far
-2.9
68th toughest
Projected
9.6-1.4
bowl-eligible >99%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

+9.0 now, +2.3 preseason · up 16 spots since preseason
0+5+10FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8Wk 9#36

Final record odds

9.6-1.4 expected · most likely 10-1 (63%)
8-332%9-263%10-1

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Maddux Madsen
QB · SR · 54th in FBS
1681yds
15 TD · 1 INT
Rushing
Dylan Riley
RB · JR · 1st in FBS
1049yds
165 car · 9 TD
Receiving
Rasean Jones
WR · FR · 55th in FBS
545yds
37 rec · 4 TD
Tackles
Boen Phelps
LB · JR · 213th in FBS
49tkl
3.5 TFL
Sacks
Lopez Sanusi
DL · SO · 110th in FBS
3.5sacks
4 hurries
Interceptions
Travis Anderson
DB · SO · 16th in FBS
3INT
1 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 5@11OregonL 27–34 ›+15.9—CBS
2Sep 12vs58MemphisW 38–20 ›+17.7—USA Net
3Sep 19vsSouth Dakota FCSW 38–24 ›+1.2—CBSSN
4Sep 26@82Western MichiganW 32–7 ›+24.1—ESPN2
5Oct 3vs86Utah StateCONFW 37–18 ›+9.7—CBSSN
6Oct 10@75Fresno StateCONFW 38–31 ›+9.1—CW
7—Bye
8Oct 24@96Washington StateCONFW 31–10 ›+17.1—USA Net
9Oct 31vs60Texas StateCONFW 46–45 ›+0.2—CW
10Nov 7@116Colorado StateCONFBoise State −19.0 · o/u 72.5—90%USA Net
11Nov 14vs62Oregon StateCONFBoise State −10.3 · o/u 61.5—76%USA Net
12Nov 21vs98San Diego StateCONFBoise State −22.3 · o/u 59.8—93%USA Net

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.3088th+0.05651st
Success rate47.5%25th36.7%21st
Explosiveness1.27955th1.592138th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate47.6%27th37.1%24th
Rushing success rate47.5%31st35.8%22nd
Passing success rate47.7%26th37.9%37th
Explosive run rate13.0%86th11.4%43rd
Explosive pass rate9.9%78th11.6%106th
Line yards / carry3.3826th2.7020th
Opportunity rate43.4%16th34.1%33rd
Stuff rate13.0%16th25.6%8th
Sack rate2.5%12th7.1%32nd
3rd-down conversion50.5%17th32.2%16th
Red-zone TD rate69.7%28th50.0%29th
Havoc rate8.6%4th16.4%24th
Box score · season totals
Points / game35.921st23.660th
Yards / game449.321st360.369th
Yards / play6.2232nd6.00119th
Pass yards / game226.570th260.8127th
Yards / pass att.7.7055th8.02121st
Completion %66.1%35th57.7%32nd
Rush yards / game222.810th99.519th
Yards / carry5.3015th3.9666th
3rd-down conv. %52.3%6th30.9%14th
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)0.627th1.0097th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)0.757th2.3844th
Penalty yards / game53.656th49.5103rd

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
7.6
113th of 138
YAC per catch
5.0
95th of 138
Deep shots (20+)
9%
135th of 138
Shotgun
56%
137th of 138
No-huddle
4%
135th of 138
QB pressured
11%
98th of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
15%
53rd of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
6.7
6th of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws230 throws charted

66% comp7.6 avg. depth5.0 YAC/catch9% 20+ air yds19–1 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 7 throws (3%), 6 caught (86%), 47 yds, 6.7 per throw786% · 47yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 20 throws (9%), 17 caught (85%), 86 yds, 4.3 per throw2085% · 86yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 17 throws (7%), 12 caught (71%), 130 yds, 7.6 per throw1771% · 130yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 8 throws (3%), 3 caught (38%), 69 yds, 8.6 per throw838% · 69yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 8 throws (3%), 4 caught (50%), 84 yds, 10.5 per throw850% · 84yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw20% · 0yLeft, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw30% · 0yMiddle, Behind air yards: 4 throws (2%), 4 caught (100%), 23 yds, 5.8 per throw4100% · 23yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 4 caught (67%), 64 yds, 10.7 per throw667% · 64yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 13 throws (6%), 10 caught (77%), 74 yds, 5.7 per throw1377% · 74yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 5 caught (50%), 79 yds, 7.9 per throw1050% · 79yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 8 throws (3%), 6 caught (75%), 125 yds, 15.6 per throw875% · 125yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 3 caught (75%), 86 yds, 21.5 per throw475% · 86yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 44 yds, 22.0 per throw250% · 44yRight, Behind air yards: 15 throws (7%), 12 caught (80%), 71 yds, 4.7 per throw1580% · 71yRight, 0–4 air yards: 48 throws (21%), 29 caught (60%), 185 yds, 3.9 per throw4860% · 185yRight, 5–9 air yards: 23 throws (10%), 15 caught (65%), 116 yds, 5.0 per throw2365% · 116yRight, 10–14 air yards: 17 throws (7%), 12 caught (71%), 184 yds, 10.8 per throw1771% · 184yRight, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 4 caught (67%), 94 yds, 15.7 per throw667% · 94yRight, 20–29 air yards: 8 throws (3%), 5 caught (63%), 179 yds, 22.4 per throw863% · 179yRight, 30+ air yards: 1 throws (0%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on247 throws charted

58% comp9.5 avg. depth6.7 YAC/catch16% 20+ air yds16–7 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 14 throws (6%), 12 caught (86%), 95 yds, 6.8 per throw1486% · 95yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 29 throws (12%), 22 caught (76%), 223 yds, 7.7 per throw2976% · 223yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 16 throws (6%), 12 caught (75%), 93 yds, 5.8 per throw1675% · 93yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 11 throws (4%), 4 caught (36%), 54 yds, 4.9 per throw1136% · 54yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 3 caught (60%), 63 yds, 12.6 per throw560% · 63yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 1 caught (20%), 31 yds, 6.2 per throw520% · 31yLeft, 30+ air yards: 7 throws (3%), 3 caught (43%), 122 yds, 17.4 per throw743% · 122yMiddle, Behind air yards: 3 throws (1%), 2 caught (67%), -9 yds, -3.0 per throw367% · -9yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 8 throws (3%), 7 caught (88%), 57 yds, 7.1 per throw888% · 57yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 9 throws (4%), 5 caught (56%), 46 yds, 5.1 per throw956% · 46yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 12 throws (5%), 6 caught (50%), 140 yds, 11.7 per throw1250% · 140yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 6 caught (60%), 188 yds, 18.8 per throw1060% · 188yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 62 yds, 31.0 per throw250% · 62yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw20% · 0yRight, Behind air yards: 24 throws (10%), 20 caught (83%), 131 yds, 5.5 per throw2483% · 131yRight, 0–4 air yards: 26 throws (11%), 17 caught (65%), 86 yds, 3.3 per throw2665% · 86yRight, 5–9 air yards: 25 throws (10%), 11 caught (44%), 120 yds, 4.8 per throw2544% · 120yRight, 10–14 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 4 caught (40%), 52 yds, 5.2 per throw1040% · 52yRight, 15–19 air yards: 9 throws (4%), 3 caught (33%), 48 yds, 5.3 per throw933% · 48yRight, 20–29 air yards: 12 throws (5%), 1 caught (8%), 22 yds, 1.8 per throw128% · 22yRight, 30+ air yards: 8 throws (3%), 5 caught (63%), 263 yds, 32.9 per throw863% · 263y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction314 carries

Left
17%
7.9 YPC · 62% succ.
Middle
67%
5.4 YPC · 46% succ.
Right
16%
5.0 YPC · 45% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced178 carries

Left
19%
6.7 YPC · 45% succ.
Middle
58%
4.0 YPC · 33% succ.
Right
24%
4.7 YPC · 45% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Spencer Danielson

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
4Maddux MadsenQBSR5' 10"207Lehi, UT
10Cash HerreraQBFR6' 2"202La Jolla, CA
14Max CutforthQBJR6' 2"208Nampa, ID
16Jackson TaylorQBFR6' 1"196Thousand Oaks, CA
0Dylan RileyRBJR5' 10"192Moreno Valley, CA
15Zeke MartinezRBFR6' 0"215Meridian, ID
22Juelz GoffRBSO5' 9"195York, PA
23Keilan ChaviesRBFR5' 9"183Hutto, TX
26Sire GainesRBSO6' 0"217Perris, CA
27Harry Stewart IIIRBSO5' 10"220Frisco, TX
30Mariyon SloanRBFR5' 10"190Shafter, CA
3Cam BatesWRJR5' 10"180Mansfield, TX
13Darren MorrisWRSR6' 1"183Baton Rouge, LA
17AJ JonesWRFR6' 1"180Murrieta, CA
19Rasean JonesWRFR6' 2"199Baker City, OR
24AJ MaesWRJR6' 3"197Palos Verdes, CA
25Quinton BrownWRSO5' 8"165Argyle, TX
29Lincoln DunnWRFR5' 11"175Melissa, TX
34Jeremyah LaneWRJR5' 6"140Louisville, GA
80Romeo CarterWRFR6' 3"190San Diego, CA
81Kamryn JonesWRFR6' 2"210Moreno Valley, CA
82Ben FordWRSR5' 10"187Eagle, ID
84Gavin PackerWRFR5' 10"180Vancouver, WA
85Terrious FavorsWRFR5' 9"163Atlanta, GA
89AJ LoganWRFR5' 9"190Spring Valley, CA
Carson MonaganWRFR5' 10"183San Marcos, CA
45Troy GrizzleTESO6' 3"246Meridian, ID
46Carter KuchenbuchTEFR6' 5"238Okanogan, WA
47Kaden AndersonTESO6' 3"232Chandler, AZ
48Ryan BrekkeTEFR6' 2"216Meridian, ID
49Beckham HoflandTEFR6' 3"230Los Alamitos, CA
87Keawe BrowneTEFR6' 5"222Corona, CA
52Stewart TaufaOLFR6' 1"302St. George, UT
55Sua FaleagafuaOLFR6' 5"259Spring Valley, CA
59Jameson PerryOLFR6' 5"290Meridian, ID
62Roger CarreonOLSR6' 5"310Jal, NM
63Connor LagrowOLFR6' 6"293Tualatin, OR
64Carson RasmussenOLJR6' 5"300Meridian, ID
65Hakeim SmallsOLFR6' 3"286Everett, WA
67Jason SteeleOLJR6' 4"313Temecula, CA
69Zander EstyOLJR6' 4"300Auburn, CA
70Kyle CoxOLJR6' 6"300Eatonville, WA
71Ashton KershnerOLJR6' 4"327Martin, TN
72Daniil StarykhOLFR6' 3"296Berlin, Germany
73Parker PerkinsOLSO6' 2"300Middleton, ID
74Alma TaleniOLSO6' 7"297Coomera, Australia
75Daylon MetoyerOLSR6' 4"321Hesperia, CA
76Greg BienvenueOLSO6' 4"303Mesa, AZ
77Kole CroninOLFR6' 5"263Reno, NV
78Tyler EthridgeOLSR6' 3"308Midlothian, TX
54Adonte MedleyDLSO6' 1"300Palmdale, CA
56Rowan RuppDLFR6' 0"252Meridian, ID
58Deuce AlailefaleulaDLFR6' 0"303Anchorage, AK
90Andrew Rheubottom Jr.DLSR6' 0"277Baltimore, MD
92David LatuDLSR6' 4"325Rose Park, UT
93Ryder SwansonDLFR6' 3"290Oregon City, OR
94Paz St. JohnDLFR6' 2"268Peoria, AZ
96Lopez SanusiDLSO6' 3"307Dublin, Ireland
97Mikaio EdwardDLJR6' 1"285Kent, WA
98Bethel ImasuenDLFR6' 4"290Reading, England
99Michael MadrieDLJR6' 4"290Argyle, TX
1Boen PhelpsLBJR6' 1"215Spokane, WA
13Sterling Lane IILBSR6' 3"238St. Louis, MO
17Logan BrantleyLBJR6' 0"229Denver, CO
18Sam BrooksLBSR6' 1"200Duval County, FL
30Adam AustonLBFR6' 1"228Lawton, OK
41Rocky DunnLBFR6' 1"218Melissa, TX
42Zyhaire LewisLBJR6' 0"215Fontana, CA
43Jake RippLBSR6' 3"240Los Gatos, CA
44Syncere Brackett-LambeyLBSO6' 2"233Compton, CA
45Markell BowensLBFR6' 5"240Pocatello, ID
51Roman CaywoodLBSO6' 3"240Draper, UT
53Ty TannerLBSO6' 1"225Meridian, ID
57Gustaf Henriks RasLBFR6' 4"228Stockholm, Sweden
91Bol BolLBSO6' 4"240Brooks, Canada
95Max StegeLBSR6' 4"269Cologne, Germany
4Travis AndersonDBSO5' 11"190Mission Viejo, CA
7Jaden MickeyDBSR6' 0"182Eastvale, CA
8Sherrod SmithDBJR6' 1"185East Palo Alto, CA
9Derek Ganter Jr.DBJR6' 0"212Pasadena, CA
10Madden SoliaiDBFR5' 9"179Laie, HI
14Demetrius Freeney Jr.DBSR6' 0"187San Leandro, CA
16Franklyn Johnson Jr.DBJR5' 10"172Little Elm, TX
20Kyle HallDBJR6' 2"205Sacramento, CA
23Davin HillDBFR5' 10"179Arlington, TX
24Tahj CrutchfieldDBFR5' 11"180Eastvale, CA
28Cam JamersonDBFR6' 0"188Pearland, TX
29Arthur de BoachieDBSO6' 0"192Amsterdam, Netherlands
31Cole MillerDBJR6' 0"186Boise, ID
32Taebron Bennie-PowellDBSO6' 1"177Cincinnati, OH
33Josiah AlanisDBFR6' 1"186Vancouver, WA
34Dom CalhounDBFR5' 11"185Pittsburg, CA
36Jacob Arbuckle IIDBFR5' 10"165Hemet, CA
39Timothy MitchellDBSO5' 10"182Portland, OR
35Colton BoomerPKSR5' 10"175Lake Mary, FL
48Canaan MoorePKFR5' 11"170Vancouver, WA
37Oscar DoylePSR6' 3"214Brisbane, Australia
38Bradan ScottPFR6' 3"185Solana Beach, CA
60Tyler HimebauchLSFR6' 2"205Monument, CO
61Caden KellowLSSR5' 11"223Brentwood, TN

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2024 (+9.4, #17) · worst: 2025 (+3.7, #46)
0+5+10FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#46
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far7-14-0#36+9.0+6.8+2.2
20259-56-2#46+3.7+2.3+1.4
202412-27-0#17+9.4+7.0+2.3
20238-66-2#38+4.3+3.4+1.0
202210-48-0#39+4.2+1.1+3.1
20217-55-3#14+8.7+2.5+6.2
20205-25-0#24+6.5+5.5+1.0
201912-28-0#28+7.7+3.8+3.9
201810-37-1#23+8.8+5.4+3.4
201711-37-1#24+7.8+5.2+2.7
201610-36-2#29+6.6+2.2+4.5
20159-45-3#26+8.3+4.5+3.8
201412-27-1#25+8.9+9.2-0.3

Boise State's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Nov 3, 12:25 PM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →