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Pac-12 · 2026

San Diego State Aztecs

Head coach Sean Lewis · Snapdragon Stadium
4-53-2 in conference
TDC Rank
#98
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
-9.6
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
-3.8
96th in FBS
Defense
-5.8
106th in FBS
Schedule so far
-3.4
71st toughest
Projected
4.6-6.4
bowl-eligible 4%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

-9.6 now, -0.7 preseason · down 33 spots since preseason
-10-50FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8Wk 9#98

Final record odds

4.6-6.4 expected · most likely 5-6 (49%)
47%4-749%5-66-5

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Jayden Denegal
QB · SR · 125th in FBS
896yds
7 TD · 5 INT
Rushing
Javion Kinnard
RB · SO · 46th in FBS
613yds
108 car · 5 TD
Receiving
Jaylon Hawkins
WR · FR · 177th in FBS
357yds
21 rec · 3 TD
Tackles
Sione Hala
LB · SR · 7th in FBS
80tkl
4 TFL
Sacks
Djibril Rahman
LB · JR · 59th in FBS
4.5sacks
6 hurries
Interceptions
Mike Lindsay
CB · SO · 16th in FBS
3INT
3 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 5vsPortland State FCSW 53–20 ›-13.3—USA Net
2Sep 12@17UCLAL 10–28 ›+1.2—BTN
3Sep 19vs59James MadisonL 13–26 ›-13.7—CW
4Sep 26@77ToledoL 16–41 ›-22.8—CBSSN
5Oct 3vs60Texas StateCONFW 31–29 ›+1.2—CW
6Oct 10@62Oregon StateCONFL 14–66 ›-27.7—USA Net
7Oct 17vs75Fresno StateCONFW 26–23 ›-2.3—CBSSN
8Oct 24@116Colorado StateCONFL 49–56 ›-17.0—CW
9Oct 31vs96Washington StateCONFW 26–20 ›-5.3—CBSSN
10—Bye
11Nov 14vs86Utah StateCONFUtah State −0.3 · o/u 45.7—49%USA Net
12Nov 21@36Boise StateCONFBoise State −22.3 · o/u 59.8—7%USA Net

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.040110th+0.13894th
Success rate37.4%125th48.9%133rd
Explosiveness1.34617th1.0896th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate37.5%124th49.4%135th
Rushing success rate39.4%108th50.7%133rd
Passing success rate35.1%125th48.1%127th
Explosive run rate12.6%94th7.2%5th
Explosive pass rate9.9%78th12.0%117th
Line yards / carry3.0877th3.49133rd
Opportunity rate38.3%79th41.5%118th
Stuff rate20.4%110th10.8%137th
Sack rate3.8%35th6.1%61st
3rd-down conversion38.6%94th47.8%126th
Red-zone TD rate62.5%70th68.8%114th
Havoc rate15.2%111th11.0%126th
Box score · season totals
Points / game26.485th34.3130th
Yards / game324.6123rd451.0133rd
Yards / play5.17106th5.68100th
Pass yards / game168.3127th285.3136th
Yards / pass att.6.40116th8.20130th
Completion %57.8%115th67.4%131st
Rush yards / game156.271st165.7101st
Yards / carry4.4067th3.8960th
3rd-down conv. %34.5%112th48.5%132nd
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)1.44100th1.2276th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)1.1117th2.1172nd
Penalty yards / game41.116th52.886th

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
9.8
32nd of 138
YAC per catch
5.1
91st of 138
Deep shots (20+)
17%
32nd of 138
Shotgun
97%
50th of 138
No-huddle
87%
27th of 138
QB pressured
12%
85th of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
14%
84th of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
6.2
16th of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws226 throws charted

57% comp9.8 avg. depth5.1 YAC/catch17% 20+ air yds12–9 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 21 throws (9%), 16 caught (76%), 67 yds, 3.2 per throw2176% · 67yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 17 throws (8%), 16 caught (94%), 129 yds, 7.6 per throw1794% · 129yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 27 throws (12%), 14 caught (52%), 166 yds, 6.1 per throw2752% · 166yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 14 throws (6%), 11 caught (79%), 165 yds, 11.8 per throw1479% · 165yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 1 throws (0%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 1 caught (25%), 24 yds, 6.0 per throw425% · 24yLeft, 30+ air yards: 12 throws (5%), 3 caught (25%), 119 yds, 9.9 per throw1225% · 119yMiddle, Behind air yards: 4 throws (2%), 4 caught (100%), 41 yds, 10.3 per throw4100% · 41yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 3 throws (1%), 2 caught (67%), 3 yds, 1.0 per throw367% · 3yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 13 throws (6%), 6 caught (46%), 123 yds, 9.5 per throw1346% · 123yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 2 caught (33%), 25 yds, 4.2 per throw633% · 25yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 4 caught (57%), 92 yds, 13.1 per throw757% · 92yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 1 throws (0%), 1 caught (100%), 29 yds, 29.0 per throw1100% · 29yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (2%), 1 caught (25%), 43 yds, 10.8 per throw425% · 43yRight, Behind air yards: 24 throws (11%), 20 caught (83%), 46 yds, 1.9 per throw2483% · 46yRight, 0–4 air yards: 14 throws (6%), 9 caught (64%), 38 yds, 2.7 per throw1464% · 38yRight, 5–9 air yards: 14 throws (6%), 9 caught (64%), 70 yds, 5.0 per throw1464% · 70yRight, 10–14 air yards: 14 throws (6%), 8 caught (57%), 101 yds, 7.2 per throw1457% · 101yRight, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 2 caught (29%), 34 yds, 4.9 per throw729% · 34yRight, 20–29 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 3 caught (30%), 54 yds, 5.4 per throw1030% · 54yRight, 30+ air yards: 9 throws (4%), 3 caught (33%), 136 yds, 15.1 per throw933% · 136y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on300 throws charted

67% comp8.3 avg. depth6.2 YAC/catch16% 20+ air yds18–6 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 32 throws (11%), 31 caught (97%), 188 yds, 5.9 per throw3297% · 188yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 21 throws (7%), 18 caught (86%), 121 yds, 5.8 per throw2186% · 121yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 28 throws (9%), 20 caught (71%), 225 yds, 8.0 per throw2871% · 225yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 9 throws (3%), 5 caught (56%), 85 yds, 9.4 per throw956% · 85yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (2%), 6 caught (86%), 136 yds, 19.4 per throw786% · 136yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 10 throws (3%), 4 caught (40%), 113 yds, 11.3 per throw1040% · 113yLeft, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (1%), 1 caught (33%), 54 yds, 18.0 per throw333% · 54yMiddle, Behind air yards: 7 throws (2%), 7 caught (100%), 28 yds, 4.0 per throw7100% · 28yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 12 throws (4%), 8 caught (67%), 65 yds, 5.4 per throw1267% · 65yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 9 throws (3%), 6 caught (67%), 64 yds, 7.1 per throw967% · 64yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 8 throws (3%), 4 caught (50%), 55 yds, 6.9 per throw850% · 55yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 8 throws (3%), 4 caught (50%), 79 yds, 9.9 per throw850% · 79yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 6 throws (2%), 4 caught (67%), 134 yds, 22.3 per throw667% · 134yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (2%), 1 caught (20%), 78 yds, 15.6 per throw520% · 78yRight, Behind air yards: 22 throws (7%), 21 caught (95%), 167 yds, 7.6 per throw2295% · 167yRight, 0–4 air yards: 35 throws (12%), 25 caught (71%), 153 yds, 4.4 per throw3571% · 153yRight, 5–9 air yards: 31 throws (10%), 19 caught (61%), 180 yds, 5.8 per throw3161% · 180yRight, 10–14 air yards: 11 throws (4%), 7 caught (64%), 87 yds, 7.9 per throw1164% · 87yRight, 15–19 air yards: 10 throws (3%), 6 caught (60%), 133 yds, 13.3 per throw1060% · 133yRight, 20–29 air yards: 22 throws (7%), 9 caught (41%), 228 yds, 10.4 per throw2241% · 228yRight, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (1%), 2 caught (50%), 109 yds, 27.3 per throw450% · 109y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction298 carries

Left
18%
5.3 YPC · 38% succ.
Middle
60%
4.3 YPC · 39% succ.
Right
22%
5.7 YPC · 49% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced350 carries

Left
20%
4.6 YPC · 52% succ.
Middle
53%
4.7 YPC · 49% succ.
Right
27%
4.5 YPC · 52% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Sean Lewis

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
4Jayden DenegalQBSR6' 5"240Apple Valley, CA
11Stone SaundersQBFR6' 1"222Harrisburg, PA
13Draiden TrudeauQBFR6' 0"190Mission Viejo, CA
41Brady CampbellQBFR6' 3"204Bakersfield, CA
7Lucky SuttonRBSR6' 1"225San Diego, CA
21Javion KinnardRBSO5' 8"175Nashville, TN
23Josiah LucasRBFR5' 9"190Arlington, TX
29Jordin ThomasRBFR5' 8"205Stockton, CA
2Jordan NapierWRJR6' 2"205Fontana, CA
3Nathan AcevedoWRSR5' 11"170San Diego, CA
5Bert Emanuel Jr.WRSR6' 4"225Houston, TX
10Parker ThreattWRSO6' 2"200San Jose, CA
11De'yhare Overstreet-GloverWRSR5' 9"170San Diego, CA
12Jaylon HawkinsWRFR6' 0"180Argyle, TX
14Donovan BrownWRSR6' 2"190Montgomery Village, MD
16Will CianfriniWRSO6' 4"190Galveston, TX
17Jacob BostickWRSR6' 3"190Palatine, IL
18Daishaun DavisWRFR5' 10"170Menifee, CA
30Aldrich DoeWRJR6' 3"196Mays Landing, NJ
42Craig WalkerWRFR5' 10"170Carson, CA
82Carson DiehlWRFR6' 3"200San Diego, CA
84Derek StevensonWRFR6' 2"175Katy, TX
85Justius LoweWRSR6' 1"200Portland, OR
93Ayo Shotomide-KingWRJR6' 3"220Chula Vista, CA
15Jackson FordTEJR6' 6"250Melissa, TX
19Jack LuaTEFR6' 5"245Eastvale, CA
47Kime FangupoTESO6' 3"256South Jordan, UT
87Jack EllisTEFR6' 5"230Novato, CA
98Parker GuiltinanTEFR6' 5"240San Diego, CA
99Elijah MuliufiTEFR6' 7"275Spanaway, WA
6Malachi FinauDLSR6' 1"315Los Angeles, CA
11Krishna ClayDLSR6' 2"280Vacaville, CA
52Koi TaieseDLFR6' 3"315Oakland, CA
88Kainoa DavisDLSO6' 3"275Temecula, CA
91Amari ComierDLSR6' 2"295East Oakland, CA
94Tuaoa Tauili'iliDLJR6' 3"330Tacoma, WA
95Gavriel LightfootDLSR6' 2"295Moreno Valley, CA
98Roman PasekaDLFR6' 4"275Long Beach, CA
99Brian Townsend Jr.DLFR6' 4"240Las Vegas, NV
0Sione HalaLBSR6' 1"235Los Angeles, CA
10Lucan AmituanaiLBFR6' 4"240Sacramento, CA
15Oberhiri EyafeLBSO6' 3"220Andover, MN
21Tano LetuliLBSR6' 2"240San Diego, CA
31Jeramiah LewisLBSO6' 3"230San Jose, CA
33Brady NassarLBSR6' 5"265Pleasanton, CA
34Dean HarringtonLBSO6' 2"227Thousand Oaks, CA
39Javari NashLBFR6' 2"220Laguna Niguel, CA
40Charlie StewartLBSR6' 1"230Los Angeles, CA
41Alijah LashLBFR6' 2"235Haslet, TX
42Cameron CooperLBJR6' 3"245Gilbert, AZ
44Nate HenrichLBJR6' 6"250Hamburg, NY
45Djibril RahmanLBJR6' 4"253Montreal, Canada
47Aaron TasinLBFR6' 1"190San Diego, CA
48Crosby KellyLBFR6' 5"255Moraga, CA
56Isaac LucasLBJR6' 3"290Youngstown, OH
58Ikbahl KassimLBSO6' 2"300Corona, CA
66Justice TurnerLBSO6' 3"290Staten Island, NY
67Charlton LuniewskiLBSO6' 5"300Cincinnati, OH
68Brian BorjonLBFR6' 6"285La Puente, CA
69Delphyn NgaleuLBJR6' 6"325Mono, Canada
70Mercer LuniewskiLBSO6' 6"320Cincinnati, OH
71Evan LawrenceLBSO6' 6"306Danville, IN
72Dennis JonesLBSR6' 6"350Dallas, TX
73Brady HillLBFR6' 3"295Wheaton, IL
75Delon Craft Jr.LBFR6' 5"305Richmond, CA
76Kalan EllisLBSR6' 5"340Waimanalo, HI
77Cam MayLBSR6' 7"310Detroit, MI
78Joseph BorjonLBSR6' 9"340La Puente, CA
79Harlem NellumLBFR6' 5"350Bakersfield, CA
90Robby Lavata'iLBFR6' 5"250University Place, WA
97Dominic CoelhoLBFR6' 4"235Rocklin, CA
27Mike LindsayCBSO6' 1"185Los Angeles, CA
32Caleb RicksCBSO6' 2"205Rancho Cucamonga, CA
37Jason OliverCBSR6' 0"180Bakersfield, CA
43Braylon CardwellCBFR6' 1"195Spring Valley, CA
46Dareon EdmondsCBFR6' 2"180Ontario, CA
49Jamison StarksCBSO6' 2"180Mountain House, CA
9Dalesean StaleySSR6' 1"190Kansas City, MO
12Chase ShumateSFR5' 11"190Detroit, MI
14Isaiah GreenSJR6' 1"195Oxnard, CA
17Kaimana TufagaSFR6' 0"200Whittier, CA
19Cammeron PurnellSFR6' 1"190El Cajon, CA
20Jelani McLaughlinSJR6' 0"205San Jacinto, CA
22Max GarrisonSSR5' 10"200Pasadena, CA
23Carsten MamarilSSR5' 9"180Temecula, CA
24Josiah CoxSSR6' 1"200San Diego, CA
26Solomon DavisSJR6' 0"205Inland Empire, CA
29Josh HunterSSR5' 10"180Temecula, CA
30Jalen ThomesonSSR5' 11"193Greenwood, IN
35Tainoa LaveSFR5' 11"190Kapolei, HI
36Rahmeer HendersonSFR6' 2"190Rancho Cucamonga, CA
38Lane GarnerPKJR5' 10"190Chico, CA
80Tyler PrasuhnPKSO6' 2"180Carlsbad, CA
86Noah SernaPKSR6' 2"210Riverside, CA
96Cooper DiLevaPKSR5' 10"180San Pedro, CA
89Tashi DorjePSR6' 2"205Brentwood, CA
93Camden CowgillPJR6' 0"210San Diego, CA
60Matthew MercadoLSSO5' 11"195Fontana, CA
61Chase SchubertLSSO6' 1"215Edna, TX
64Connor PoulsonLSSO5' 11"210Danville, CA

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2016 (+6.4, #31) · worst: 2024 (-11.5, #124)
-10-50+5FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#54
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far4-53-2#98-9.6-3.8-5.8
20259-46-2#54+2.4-2.8+5.2
20243-92-5#124-11.5-7.3-4.3
20234-82-6#109-7.8-6.2-1.7
20227-65-3#77-2.5-5.7+3.2
202112-27-1#47+4.4-0.9+5.3
20204-44-2#42+3.3-5.0+8.3
201910-35-3#54+1.0-9.3+10.3
20187-64-4#87-2.9-7.3+4.4
201710-36-2#36+4.60.0+4.5
201611-36-2#31+6.40.0+6.4
201511-38-0#38+5.9-1.7+7.6
20147-65-3#75-1.6-6.3+4.7

San Diego State's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Nov 3, 12:25 PM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →