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Pac-12 · 2026

Texas State Bobcats

Head coach GJ Kinne · UFCU Stadium
4-42-2 in conference
TDC Rank
#60
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
+2.9
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
+6.4
25th in FBS
Defense
-3.5
93rd in FBS
Schedule so far
-2.9
68th toughest
Projected
6.0-5.0
bowl-eligible 74%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

+2.9 now, -1.8 preseason · up 12 spots since preseason
-50+5FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8Wk 9#60

Final record odds

6.0-5.0 expected · most likely 6-5 (48%)
4-723%5-648%6-525%7-4

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Brad Jackson
QB · SO · 28th in FBS
1933yds
18 TD · 5 INT
Rushing
Torrance Burgess Jr.
RB · SR · 10th in FBS
922yds
129 car · 5 TD
Receiving
Chris Dawn Jr.
WR · SR · 86th in FBS
467yds
41 rec · 5 TD
Tackles
Jayden Bradley
DB · FR · 119th in FBS
56tkl
2 TFL
Sacks
Tymere Jackson
DL · SR · 110th in FBS
3.5sacks
3 hurries
Interceptions
Trez Moore
DB · SR · 145th in FBS
1INT
9 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 5@9TexasL 7–59 ›-7.7—ESPN
2Sep 12vs70UTSAL 26–31 ›-8.3—CW
3Sep 19vs56North TexasW 49–35 ›+14.0—USA Net
4Sep 26vsIncarnate Word FCSW 63–10 ›+16.4—USA Net
5Oct 3@98San Diego StateCONFL 29–31 ›-7.8—CW
6—Bye
7Oct 15vs116Colorado StateCONFW 66–27 ›+11.8—CBSSN
8Oct 24vs86Utah StateCONFW 20–17 ›-6.3—CBSSN
9Oct 31@36Boise StateCONFL 45–46 ›+11.7—CW
10Nov 7@62Oregon StateCONFOregon State −3.2 · o/u 66.8—42%CW
11Nov 14vs75Fresno StateCONFTexas State −8.2 · o/u 61.1—71%CW
12Nov 21vs96Washington StateCONFTexas State −14.2 · o/u 57.4—83%USA Net

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.26816th+0.169108th
Success rate49.3%17th44.4%112th
Explosiveness1.31041st1.26482nd
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate49.7%17th44.5%109th
Rushing success rate49.6%18th38.9%41st
Passing success rate49.8%16th48.3%129th
Explosive run rate14.6%53rd10.1%24th
Explosive pass rate11.9%39th9.5%63rd
Line yards / carry3.4518th2.6716th
Opportunity rate40.1%60th36.5%56th
Stuff rate13.1%17th26.0%7th
Sack rate3.0%17th2.3%133rd
3rd-down conversion56.6%5th41.2%87th
Red-zone TD rate66.7%39th69.7%115th
Havoc rate9.1%6th13.1%86th
Box score · season totals
Points / game38.113th32.0124th
Yards / game506.67th414.4121st
Yards / play6.6612th5.4582nd
Pass yards / game255.936th295.4137th
Yards / pass att.8.4024th7.1069th
Completion %67.5%22nd66.4%124th
Rush yards / game250.86th119.034th
Yards / carry5.705th3.5939th
3rd-down conv. %52.1%7th40.0%89th
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)1.3876th0.88107th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)1.5042nd1.25114th
Penalty yards / game53.554th65.628th

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
8.8
69th of 138
YAC per catch
6.5
19th of 138
Deep shots (20+)
14%
79th of 138
Shotgun
98%
28th of 138
No-huddle
93%
10th of 138
QB pressured
7%
133rd of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
5%
138th of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
5.0
82nd of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws232 throws charted

67% comp8.8 avg. depth6.5 YAC/catch14% 20+ air yds19–5 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 16 throws (7%), 14 caught (88%), 61 yds, 3.8 per throw1688% · 61yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 25 throws (11%), 18 caught (72%), 106 yds, 4.2 per throw2572% · 106yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 17 throws (7%), 15 caught (88%), 153 yds, 9.0 per throw1788% · 153yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 12 throws (5%), 10 caught (83%), 135 yds, 11.3 per throw1283% · 135yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 3 throws (1%), 1 caught (33%), 24 yds, 8.0 per throw333% · 24yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw40% · 0yLeft, 30+ air yards: 7 throws (3%), 4 caught (57%), 193 yds, 27.6 per throw757% · 193yMiddle, Behind air yards: 4 throws (2%), 4 caught (100%), -4 yds, -1.0 per throw4100% · -4yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 11 throws (5%), 7 caught (64%), 53 yds, 4.8 per throw1164% · 53yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 8 throws (3%), 2 caught (25%), 36 yds, 4.5 per throw825% · 36yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 8 caught (80%), 189 yds, 18.9 per throw1080% · 189yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 6 caught (86%), 214 yds, 30.6 per throw786% · 214yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 29 yds, 14.5 per throw250% · 29yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 6 throws (3%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw60% · 0yRight, Behind air yards: 19 throws (8%), 18 caught (95%), 115 yds, 6.1 per throw1995% · 115yRight, 0–4 air yards: 30 throws (13%), 25 caught (83%), 236 yds, 7.9 per throw3083% · 236yRight, 5–9 air yards: 18 throws (8%), 10 caught (56%), 81 yds, 4.5 per throw1856% · 81yRight, 10–14 air yards: 9 throws (4%), 5 caught (56%), 131 yds, 14.6 per throw956% · 131yRight, 15–19 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 6 caught (60%), 109 yds, 10.9 per throw1060% · 109yRight, 20–29 air yards: 8 throws (3%), 4 caught (50%), 94 yds, 11.8 per throw850% · 94yRight, 30+ air yards: 6 throws (3%), 1 caught (17%), 39 yds, 6.5 per throw617% · 39y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on321 throws charted

66% comp8.0 avg. depth5.0 YAC/catch12% 20+ air yds18–5 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 26 throws (8%), 23 caught (88%), 176 yds, 6.8 per throw2688% · 176yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 31 throws (10%), 24 caught (77%), 219 yds, 7.1 per throw3177% · 219yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 35 throws (11%), 27 caught (77%), 279 yds, 8.0 per throw3577% · 279yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 22 throws (7%), 14 caught (64%), 227 yds, 10.3 per throw2264% · 227yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 1 caught (20%), 17 yds, 3.4 per throw520% · 17yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 10 throws (3%), 6 caught (60%), 170 yds, 17.0 per throw1060% · 170yLeft, 30+ air yards: 6 throws (2%), 1 caught (17%), 45 yds, 7.5 per throw617% · 45yMiddle, Behind air yards: 1 throws (0%), 1 caught (100%), 7 yds, 7.0 per throw1100% · 7yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 6 throws (2%), 2 caught (33%), 7 yds, 1.2 per throw633% · 7yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 19 throws (6%), 14 caught (74%), 132 yds, 6.9 per throw1974% · 132yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 14 throws (4%), 8 caught (57%), 161 yds, 11.5 per throw1457% · 161yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 9 throws (3%), 5 caught (56%), 86 yds, 9.6 per throw956% · 86yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 3 throws (1%), 2 caught (67%), 42 yds, 14.0 per throw367% · 42yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 7 throws (2%), 2 caught (29%), 101 yds, 14.4 per throw729% · 101yRight, Behind air yards: 29 throws (9%), 25 caught (86%), 58 yds, 2.0 per throw2986% · 58yRight, 0–4 air yards: 37 throws (12%), 27 caught (73%), 143 yds, 3.9 per throw3773% · 143yRight, 5–9 air yards: 30 throws (9%), 21 caught (70%), 174 yds, 5.8 per throw3070% · 174yRight, 10–14 air yards: 12 throws (4%), 4 caught (33%), 47 yds, 3.9 per throw1233% · 47yRight, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (2%), 2 caught (29%), 42 yds, 6.0 per throw729% · 42yRight, 20–29 air yards: 7 throws (2%), 3 caught (43%), 80 yds, 11.4 per throw743% · 80yRight, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (2%), 3 caught (60%), 121 yds, 24.2 per throw560% · 121y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction328 carries

Left
13%
6.4 YPC · 60% succ.
Middle
71%
6.3 YPC · 40% succ.
Right
16%
5.9 YPC · 50% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced245 carries

Left
18%
3.6 YPC · 51% succ.
Middle
62%
4.0 YPC · 39% succ.
Right
20%
4.3 YPC · 46% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach GJ Kinne

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
8Brad JacksonQBSO6' 0"197San Antonio, TX
10Shaker ReisigQBFR6' 0"194Tulsa, OK
15Stone WalkerQBJR6' 3"195Houston, TX
17Gavin ParkhurstQBFR6' 3"207Fort Worth, TX
0Taji AtkinsRBSO5' 8"181Houston, TX
4Torrance Burgess Jr.RBSR5' 8"176Pearland, TX
5Jaylen JenkinsRBSR5' 8"173Dallas, TX
6Davian JacksonRBFR6' 1"196New Iberia, LA
21Cole PryorRBFR5' 9"178San Antonio, TX
24Juntavious HarrisRBFR5' 8"175Euless, TX
1Chris Dawn Jr.WRSR5' 9"175Dallas, TX
2Kylen EvansWRSO6' 2"200McKinney, TX
3Zechariah SampleWRSO5' 10"175Pickens, MS
11Beau SparksWRSR5' 11"181El Paso, TX
12La'Keyleon GravesWRFR6' 2"201Kilgore, TX
13Tucker CusanoWRFR6' 2"205Dallas, TX
14Jordan MartinWRSO6' 1"192Dallas, TX
20Dameon CroweWRFR5' 6"160Richardson, TX
25Skylar LewisWRFR6' 2"189Sulphur Springs, TX
81Blake MclaneWRFR6' 3"208McKinney, TX
83Jonah JonesWRFR6' 1"189Denton, TX
9Arvis Battle Jr.TEFR6' 4"246Red Oak, TX
16Blake SmithTESR6' 4"250Southlake, TX
18Ty StameyTEJR6' 7"250Spring, TX
84Cole SnodgrassTESO6' 5"230Conroe, TX
85Russell CrawfordTEFR6' 5"225Marshall, TX
88Jake SimpsonTEJR6' 5"246Azle, TX
50Jaylen EarlyOLSR6' 4"315Duncanville, TX
52Mikel UdengwuOLJR6' 3"5Norwalk, CA
53Cameron SchultzOLJR6' 4"291Foley, AL
54Tyler NorrisOLSO6' 4"315Dallas, TX
55Etueni RopatiOLJR6' 5"321Orange County, TX
58Aidin RhodesOLJR6' 3"281Sugar Land, TX
60Terrance Brown Jr.OLFR6' 5"361Killeen, TX
62Teagan LindseyOLFR6' 4"290Callisburg, TX
65Eric PerkinsOLFR6' 6"374Marshall, TX
66Justin DeLeonOLJR6' 3"319Kingsville, TX
68Sully BurnsOLSR6' 7"327Plano, TX
70Ameer RossOLFR6' 5"373Duncanville, TX
71William BooneOLSR6' 6"351Conyers, GA
72Kirk GildonOLFR6' 6"291Temple, TX
74Jayden LuckettOLJR6' 6"306San Diego, CA
75Rasheed JacksonOLJR6' 7"339Columbus, OH
77Bamidele BadusiOLJR6' 6"328Grand Prairie, TX
78Amari SmithOLJR6' 6"332Brookhaven, MS
79Alan GrimmeOLJR6' 5"319Vancleave, MS
5DonTerry RussellDLSR6' 5"228Jackson, MS
6Jo'Laison LandryDLJR6' 3"260Lafayette, LA
13Ta'Derius CollinsDLJR6' 4"233Shreveport, LA
14D'Ante KeysDLFR6' 3"257Bellville, TX
18Josiah GrahamDLSR6' 5"250Newport News, VA
30Jason PattersonDLSR6' 4"229Philadelphia, PA
31Cullen ThompsonDLFR6' 3"220Spring, TX
32Javarius BellDLFR6' 1"306Brownsboro, TX
33Blake IsbellDLFR6' 3"254Dallas, TX
34Jonathan DavisDLJR6' 5"320Oma, MS
35Emmanuel PeterDLSO6' 4"270Las Vegas, NV
38Mekhi BuchananDLJR6' 5"247Acworth, GA
40Simeon GarnerDLFR6' 3"288Tyler, TX
42Colt SparksDLFR6' 3"236Gladewater, TX
44Phillip BradfordDLJR6' 6"308Monroe, LA
56Tymere JacksonDLSR6' 5"245Woodbury, NJ
88Jussiah AliDLJR6' 1"305San Antonio, TX
90Chancellor OwensDLJR6' 3"296Haslet, TX
91J.P. DeeterDLJR6' 3"294Topeka, KS
93Cam ChristianDLFR6' 0"302Kilgore, TX
95Jaylen HarrisDLSR6' 2"325Chicago, IL
96Bryce CarterDLSR6' 3"309Colonial Heights, VA
99Kaleb JamesDLJR6' 4"286Mansfield, TX
10Cole NillesLBJR6' 4"238Philadelphia, PA
11TJ BurkhalterLBFR6' 2"230Houston, TX
12Javante MackeyLBJR6' 2"251Chicago, IL
15Ayden JonesLBJR6' 2"224Houston, TX
16Terrence Cooks IILBSR6' 2"231Pearland, TX
21Jordan SampleLBJR6' 2"233Missouri City, TX
23Darius DavisLBFR6' 2"216San Marcos, TX
29Treylin PayneLBSR6' 0"215San Antonio, TX
49Blaine CarverLBFR5' 10"203Victoria, TX
0Jayden LawtonDBSR6' 3"193Dallas, TX
1Amarion AtwoodDBJR6' 1"182Dallas, TX
2Trez MooreDBSR6' 1"186St. Louis, MO
3Craig Royal Jr.DBSR6' 2"185Houston, TX
7Ryan NolanDBSR5' 10"187Gainesville, FL
8Cordarian PowellDBFR6' 1"180Royse City, TX
9Jayden BradleyDBFR6' 1"209Prosper, TX
17Christopher JonesDBSO6' 2"189Houston, TX
19Michael Patterson IIIDBJR5' 10"169Houston, TX
22Will Mitchell IIDBSO5' 10"181Houston, TX
24Dexter Ricks Jr.DBSR5' 11"178Milledgeville, GA
26Chase DavisDBJR6' 3"197Little Elm, TX
27John SmithDBFR6' 3"202Baytown, TX
36Greg Gipson Jr.DBFR6' 1"180Dallas, TX
37Jayden FlournoyDBFR6' 0"180Burleson, TX
38Jacob BonillaPKSO5' 10"167Ontario, CA
41Dylan CunananPKJR5' 9"183Phoenix, AZ
43Michael JamesPKSR6' 4"204Rockwall, TX
92Tom FlintoffPFR6' 3"212Melbourne, Australia
94Joshua SelmesPSO6' 1"181Central Coast, Australia
51Darian SnellLSSO6' 3"218Houston, TX
57Lincoln PetitjeanLSFR6' 0"225Canaan, CT

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2024 (+2.9, #51) · worst: 2016 (-19.2, #128)
-20-100FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#62
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far4-42-2#60+2.9+6.4-3.5
20257-63-5#62+1.4+6.2-4.8
20248-55-3#51+2.9+4.3-1.5
20238-54-4#72-1.4+5.3-6.8
20224-82-6#114-9.0-6.9-2.1
20214-83-5#116-11.2-4.5-6.7
20202-102-6#107-7.9-0.7-7.3
20193-92-6#120-12.7-9.6-3.1
20183-91-7#121-13.2-9.7-3.5
20172-101-7#126-17.1-10.7-6.4
20162-100-8#128-19.2-9.2-10.0
20153-92-6#113-12.4-4.1-8.3
20147-55-3#82-4.7-1.6-3.1

Texas State's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Nov 3, 12:25 PM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →