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2026 Season · 331 games in

Award Projections

Who's on track to win college football's biggest awards, updated after every game day.

Heisman Trophy

Chance to win, from our model of every Heisman vote since 2014

1Darian MensahQB · JR · Miami #3 (4-0)40%4 G · 1211 pass yds, 14 TD, 0 INT
2Jadan BaughRB · JR · Florida #11 (4-0)12%4 G · 600 rush yds, 11 TD
3Mason HeintschelQB · SO · Pittsburgh (4-0)4.9%4 G · 1191 pass yds, 13 TD, 1 INT; 110 rush yds, 1 TD
4Josh HooverQB · SR · Indiana #4 (4-0)4.7%4 G · 850 pass yds, 11 TD, 0 INT
5Nate SheppardRB · SO · Duke (4-0)3.9%4 G · 644 rush yds, 6 TD; 10 rec, 70 yds, 3 TD
6Kamario TaylorQB · SO · Mississippi State (4-0)3.5%4 G · 1192 pass yds, 14 TD, 2 INT; 185 rush yds, 1 TD
7Jeremiah SmithWR · JR · Ohio State #2 (3-1)2.9%4 G · 33 rec, 617 yds, 7 TD
8CJ CarrQB · JR · Notre Dame #1 (4-0)2.6%4 G · 963 pass yds, 9 TD, 1 INT
9Wayshawn ParkerRB · JR · Utah #7 (4-0)2.5%4 G · 328 rush yds, 5 TD; 15 rec, 154 yds, 4 TD
10Julian SayinQB · JR · Ohio State #2 (3-1)2.1%4 G · 1206 pass yds, 10 TD, 1 INT; 7 rush yds, 2 TD
11Wayne KnightRB · SR · UCLA #21 (4-0)2.0%4 G · 445 rush yds, 9 TD; 8 rec, 88 yds, 0 TD
12Malachi ToneyWR · SO · Miami #3 (4-0)1.9%4 G · 34 rec, 564 yds, 6 TD

How it works. A model trained on the 2014–2025 races learned what Heisman voters reward: passing and total touchdowns, yards, few interceptions, a full season, a winning power-conference team high in the rankings. Tested on each season it didn't train on, it picked the eventual winner first in 8 of 12 years and in its top three in 10 (it can't see a two-way season like Travis Hunter's). For this season, each contender's remaining games are simulated 1,500 times around his current pace, with his team's record drawn from our record odds, and the odds are spread out early in the year, when most of the race is still to be played.

Davey O'Brien AwardBest quarterback · chance to win

1Darian MensahQB · JR · Miami #3 (4-0)26%1211 pass yds, 14 TD, 0 INT
2Kamario TaylorQB · SO · Mississippi State (4-0)8%1192 pass yds, 14 TD, 2 INT; 185 rush yds, 1 TD
3Mason HeintschelQB · SO · Pittsburgh (4-0)6%1191 pass yds, 13 TD, 1 INT; 110 rush yds, 1 TD
4Julian SayinQB · JR · Ohio State #2 (3-1)6%1206 pass yds, 10 TD, 1 INT; 7 rush yds, 2 TD
5Josh HooverQB · SR · Indiana #4 (4-0)4%850 pass yds, 11 TD, 0 INT
6Jayden MaiavaQB · SR · USC (4-1)3%1499 pass yds, 14 TD, 2 INT; -1 rush yds, 2 TD
7John Alan RichterQB · JR · Toledo (3-1)3%1161 pass yds, 12 TD, 1 INT
8CJ CarrQB · JR · Notre Dame #1 (4-0)3%963 pass yds, 9 TD, 1 INT

Doak Walker AwardBest running back · chance to win

1Jadan BaughRB · JR · Florida #11 (4-0)42%600 rush yds, 11 TD
2Wayne KnightRB · SR · UCLA #21 (4-0)16%445 rush yds, 9 TD; 8 rec, 88 yds, 0 TD
3Nate SheppardRB · SO · Duke (4-0)15%644 rush yds, 6 TD; 10 rec, 70 yds, 3 TD
4Dylan RileyRB · JR · Boise State (3-1)4%592 rush yds, 3 TD; 6 rec, 49 yds, 0 TD
5Jahiem WhiteRB · SR · North Texas (2-2)3%363 rush yds, 7 TD; 19 rec, 143 yds, 2 TD
6Wayshawn ParkerRB · JR · Utah #7 (4-0)3%328 rush yds, 5 TD; 15 rec, 154 yds, 4 TD
7Jaylin CarterRB · SO · Memphis (3-1)2%437 rush yds, 6 TD
8Jeffrey Overton Jr.RB · SO · Virginia Tech (4-0)1%409 rush yds, 4 TD; 10 rec, 114 yds, 1 TD

Biletnikoff AwardBest receiver · chance to win

1Jeremiah SmithWR · JR · Ohio State #2 (3-1)45%33 rec, 617 yds, 7 TD
2Malachi ToneyWR · SO · Miami #3 (4-0)22%34 rec, 564 yds, 6 TD
3KJ DuffWR · JR · Rutgers (1-3)10%29 rec, 550 yds, 7 TD
4Jesse LegreeWR · FR · Oregon State (2-2)7%23 rec, 585 yds, 6 TD
5Collin DixonWR · SR · Illinois (2-2)6%30 rec, 430 yds, 7 TD
6Reed HarrisWR · SR · Arizona State (2-1)3%19 rec, 374 yds, 5 TD
7Charlie BeckerWR · JR · Indiana #4 (4-0)1%19 rec, 370 yds, 6 TD
8Deuce AlexanderWR · JR · Ole Miss #15 (3-1)1%27 rec, 429 yds, 4 TD

John Mackey AwardBest tight end · chance to win

1Luke ReynoldsTE · JR · Virginia Tech (4-0)54%30 rec, 280 yds, 4 TD
2Hunter TiptonTE · SR · Memphis (3-1)12%16 rec, 307 yds, 3 TD
3Kari AshleyTE · SR · TCU (2-2)10%19 rec, 266 yds, 3 TD
4Jaleel SkinnerTE · SR · Louisville #24 (2-2)4%12 rec, 248 yds, 3 TD
5Theo Melin OhrstromTE · SR · SMU #25 (3-1)4%11 rec, 117 yds, 4 TD
6Rocky BeersTE · SR · Oklahoma #20 (2-2)3%18 rec, 255 yds, 2 TD
7Trey'Dez GreenTE · JR · LSU #9 (3-1)3%14 rec, 222 yds, 1 TD
8Patrick OvermyerTE · SR · Houston (3-1)2%19 rec, 240 yds, 2 TD

Butkus AwardBest linebacker · chance to win

1Alonzo Jackson Jr.LB · SO · Louisiana Tech (1-2)9%26 tkl, 6 TFL, 3 sacks, 1 INT, 2 PD
2MarcAnthony ParkerLB · Navy (1-2)5%28 tkl, 5 TFL, 4 sacks
3Sammy OmosighoLB · SR · UCLA #21 (4-0)4%38 tkl, 7 TFL, 3 sacks
4Elijah MelendezLB · SO · Auburn #18 (3-1)4%34 tkl, 6 TFL, 2 sacks, 0 INT, 3 PD
5Nick RinaldiLB · SR · Vanderbilt (3-1)3%22 tkl, 4.5 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 0 INT, 4 PD
6Anthony PalanoLB · SO · Boston College (2-2)3%40 tkl, 6 TFL, 1 sacks, 2 INT, 3 PD
7Blake MatthewsLB · SR · Delaware (2-2)2%25 tkl, 5 TFL, 4.5 sacks
8EJ SmithLB · SR · Nevada (1-3)2%56 tkl, 3.5 TFL, 1.5 sacks, 0 INT, 2 PD

Jim Thorpe AwardBest defensive back · chance to win

1Kingston LopaDB · SO · California (2-2)6%27 tkl, 1 TFL, 0 sacks, 5 INT, 6 PD
2Brent Gordon Jr.CB · SO · Louisiana (3-1)3%21 tkl, 3 TFL, 0 sacks, 2 INT, 6 PD
3Alex McLaughlinS · SR · Washington (3-1)3%25 tkl, 4 TFL, 2 sacks, 2 INT, 5 PD
4Jones ThomasS · Wyoming (2-2)2%27 tkl, 0.5 TFL, 0 sacks, 2 INT, 6 PD
5Ashton HamptonCB · JR · Clemson (3-1)2%10 tkl, 0.5 TFL, 0 sacks, 1 INT, 8 PD
6Ta'Shawn JamesDB · SR · UCLA #21 (4-0)2%24 tkl, 0.5 TFL, 0.5 sacks, 3 INT, 5 PD
7Devin SanchezCB · SO · Ohio State #2 (3-1)2%17 tkl, 1 TFL, 0 sacks, 0 INT, 5 PD
8Jett JeffersonCB · JR · Mississippi State (4-0)2%19 tkl, 0 TFL, 0 sacks, 0 INT, 7 PD

Bronko Nagurski TrophyBest defensive player · chance to win

1Princewill UmanmielenDE · LSU #9 (3-1)15%21 tkl, 9 TFL, 7 sacks
2Xavier LewisDL · SO · North Carolina (2-1)14%17 tkl, 8.5 TFL, 6 sacks
3Colin SimmonsEDGE · JR · Texas #6 (4-0)14%12 tkl, 8.5 TFL, 7 sacks
4Daeden HopkinsEDGE · SO · Missouri (3-1)6%15 tkl, 7 TFL, 6.5 sacks
5Alonzo Jackson Jr.LB · SO · Louisiana Tech (1-2)2%26 tkl, 6 TFL, 3 sacks, 1 INT, 2 PD
6Xavier GilliamDL · SO · Tennessee #12 (3-1)2%16 tkl, 7.5 TFL, 4 sacks
7Lamont Lester Jr.DL · JR · Colorado (2-2)2%9 tkl, 6 TFL, 4 sacks
8Blake MatthewsLB · SR · Delaware (2-2)2%25 tkl, 5 TFL, 4.5 sacks

Lou Groza AwardBest place-kicker · chance to win

1Sam KeltnerPK · SO · Oklahoma State (3-1)9%10/10 FG, long 47
2Connor CalvertPK · SO · Wake Forest (3-1)6%9/10 FG, long 44
3Gianni SpeticPK · SR · Texas #6 (4-0)6%7/7 FG, long 52
4Samer LayousPK · SO · Georgia State (3-1)6%7/7 FG, long 49
5Nolan HauserPK · JR · Clemson (3-1)6%10/11 FG, long 50
6Gavin LahmPK · SR · Wisconsin (3-1)5%8/8 FG, long 51
7Morgan SuarezPK · SR · James Madison (4-0)4%9/9 FG, long 46
8Luke DrzewieckiPK · SR · Minnesota (3-1)4%6/6 FG, long 51

Ray Guy AwardBest punter · chance to win

1Simon McClannanP · SR · Kansas State (3-1)11%48.6 yds/punt, 7 inside 20
2Edward PhillipsonP · JR · Massachusetts (4-0)9%49.2 yds/punt, 8 inside 20
3Bailey EttridgeP · SO · Oregon #8 (3-1)8%48.3 yds/punt, 5 inside 20
4Will KarollP · SR · Texas Tech #14 (4-0)8%48.9 yds/punt, 7 inside 20
5Tyler WhiteP · Texas A&M #23 (2-2)7%50.0 yds/punt, 6 inside 20
6Drew MillerP · JR · Georgia #5 (4-0)7%48.8 yds/punt, 4 inside 20
7Palmer WilliamsP · Baylor (3-1)7%50.6 yds/punt, 5 inside 20
8Will DuncanP · JR · Air Force (2-1)7%52.0 yds/punt, 3 inside 20

Conference Awards

Chance to win each conference honor

Offensive Player of the YearHeisman-model score, simulated

1Jadan BaughRB · JR · Florida (4-0)19%600 rush yds, 11 TD
2Kamario TaylorQB · SO · Mississippi State (4-0)16%1192 pass yds, 14 TD, 2 INT; 185 rush yds, 1 TD
3Keelon RussellQB · SO · Alabama (4-0)6%1129 pass yds, 8 TD, 2 INT; 168 rush yds, 3 TD
4Gunner StocktonQB · Georgia (4-0)6%754 pass yds, 10 TD, 1 INT
5Faizon BrandonQB · FR · Tennessee (3-1)4%697 pass yds, 7 TD, 0 INT; 139 rush yds, 3 TD

Defensive Player of the YearDefensive composite, simulated

1Princewill UmanmielenDE · LSU (3-1)29%21 tkl, 9 TFL, 7 sacks
2Colin SimmonsEDGE · JR · Texas (4-0)24%12 tkl, 8.5 TFL, 7 sacks
3Daeden HopkinsEDGE · SO · Missouri (3-1)13%15 tkl, 7 TFL, 6.5 sacks
4Xavier GilliamDL · SO · Tennessee (3-1)5%16 tkl, 7.5 TFL, 4 sacks
5Nick RinaldiLB · SR · Vanderbilt (3-1)4%22 tkl, 4.5 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 0 INT, 4 PD

Freshman of the YearBest of offense or defense, freshmen only

1Faizon BrandonQB · FR · Tennessee (3-1)69%697 pass yds, 7 TD, 0 INT; 139 rush yds, 3 TD
2Anthony AddisonDE · FR · South Carolina (2-2)9%
3Deuce GeraldsDT · FR · LSU (3-1)9%13 tkl, 4 TFL, 3 sacks
4Dane BathurstLB · FR · Oklahoma (2-2)1%
5Jared CurtisQB · FR · Vanderbilt (3-1)1%746 pass yds, 4 TD, 3 INT; 133 rush yds, 2 TD

How the other awards work. The Heisman odds come from a model trained on real votes. We don't have voting history for the position or conference awards, so those odds are simulated: each player gets a score for the award (per-game production scored against everyone else at his position, plus a small bump for winning teams; conference Offensive Player of the Year uses the Heisman model's score), and the rest of the season is played out 1,500 times. His remaining games are drawn around his level so far, pulled partway back toward average because hot starts cool off, and harder for defensive stats like sacks and interceptions, which swing more from week to week. The percentage is how often he finishes the season on top.