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ACC · 2026

Duke Blue Devils

Head coach Manny Diaz · Wallace Wade Stadium
6-23-2 in conference
TDC Rank
#39
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
+7.8
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
+2.8
52nd in FBS
Defense
+4.9
38th in FBS
Schedule so far
-4.2
75th toughest
Projected
7.5-4.5
bowl-eligible >99%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

+7.8 now, +2.2 preseason · up 14 spots since preseason
0+5+10FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8Wk 9#39

Final record odds

7.5-4.5 expected · most likely 8-4 (39%)
11%6-638%7-539%8-411%9-310-2

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Walker Eget
QB · SR · 62nd in FBS
1641yds
9 TD · 3 INT
Rushing
Nate Sheppard
RB · SO · 5th in FBS
972yds
173 car · 14 TD
Receiving
Jeremiah Hasley
TE · SR · 249th in FBS
305yds
24 rec · 1 TD
Tackles
Nick Morris Jr.
LB · SR · 277th in FBS
45tkl
3 TFL
Sacks
Kevin O'Connor
DE · JR · 59th in FBS
4.5sacks
2 hurries
Interceptions
Patrick Smith-Young
S · SR · 145th in FBS
1INT
2 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 5vs90TulaneW 17–3 ›+4.0—ACC Network
2Sep 12@42IllinoisW 31–27 ›+15.0—FS1
3Sep 19vs100StanfordCONFW 35–7 ›+11.8—CW
4Sep 26vsWilliam & Mary FCSW 62–7 ›-5.1—ACCNX
5—Bye
6Oct 10@78Georgia TechCONFL 25–28 ›-1.6—ESPN2
7Oct 17vs50North CarolinaCONFL 20–24 ›-2.7—ESPN2
8Oct 23@47VirginiaCONFW 19–16 ›+12.6—ESPN
9Oct 31vs81Boston CollegeCONFW 47–2 ›+23.9—CW
10Nov 7@67NC StateCONFDuke −2.2 · o/u 55.6—56%CW
11Nov 14@3MiamiCONFMiami −20.7 · o/u 61.2—8%ABC
12Nov 20vs54ClemsonCONFDuke −6.9 · o/u 42.7—68%ESPN
13Nov 28@14Wake ForestCONFWake Forest −12.2 · o/u 50.4—21%

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.23527th+0.01534th
Success rate42.5%68th39.4%44th
Explosiveness1.34318th1.11010th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate42.0%78th40.0%50th
Rushing success rate39.7%105th38.8%39th
Passing success rate44.5%46th41.2%79th
Explosive run rate15.7%35th10.0%23rd
Explosive pass rate14.1%17th7.1%19th
Line yards / carry3.0584th2.7431st
Opportunity rate37.2%94th36.8%60th
Stuff rate17.4%79th18.7%57th
Sack rate0.9%2nd7.1%32nd
3rd-down conversion44.1%42nd28.7%2nd
Red-zone TD rate60.0%82nd55.6%50th
Havoc rate11.0%21st14.0%67th
Box score · season totals
Points / game32.048th14.39th
Yards / game420.642nd290.317th
Yards / play6.2033rd4.5221st
Pass yards / game236.061st186.833rd
Yards / pass att.7.6061st6.5236th
Completion %60.3%97th61.1%62nd
Rush yards / game184.641st103.525th
Yards / carry5.0033rd3.1720th
3rd-down conv. %43.5%40th27.4%5th
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)0.627th1.1278th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)0.382nd3.0011th
Penalty yards / game72.5123rd77.43rd

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
8.8
72nd of 138
YAC per catch
6.6
16th of 138
Deep shots (20+)
16%
43rd of 138
Shotgun
97%
53rd of 138
No-huddle
13%
122nd of 138
QB pressured
10%
116th of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
18%
20th of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
4.9
98th of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws237 throws charted

60% comp8.8 avg. depth6.6 YAC/catch16% 20+ air yds13–4 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 16 throws (7%), 15 caught (94%), 105 yds, 6.6 per throw1694% · 105yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 17 throws (7%), 12 caught (71%), 91 yds, 5.4 per throw1771% · 91yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 17 throws (7%), 11 caught (65%), 121 yds, 7.1 per throw1765% · 121yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 8 throws (3%), 5 caught (63%), 81 yds, 10.1 per throw863% · 81yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 6 caught (60%), 127 yds, 12.7 per throw1060% · 127yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 12 throws (5%), 7 caught (58%), 189 yds, 15.8 per throw1258% · 189yLeft, 30+ air yards: 10 throws (4%), 2 caught (20%), 67 yds, 6.7 per throw1020% · 67yMiddle, Behind air yards: 3 throws (1%), 2 caught (67%), -1 yds, -0.3 per throw367% · -1yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 23 throws (10%), 18 caught (78%), 179 yds, 7.8 per throw2378% · 179yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 7 caught (70%), 72 yds, 7.2 per throw1070% · 72yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 9 throws (4%), 6 caught (67%), 103 yds, 11.4 per throw967% · 103yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 1 caught (25%), 44 yds, 11.0 per throw425% · 44yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 3 throws (1%), 2 caught (67%), 60 yds, 20.0 per throw367% · 60yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw30% · 0yRight, Behind air yards: 22 throws (9%), 17 caught (77%), 136 yds, 6.2 per throw2277% · 136yRight, 0–4 air yards: 23 throws (10%), 13 caught (57%), 91 yds, 4.0 per throw2357% · 91yRight, 5–9 air yards: 14 throws (6%), 8 caught (57%), 65 yds, 4.6 per throw1457% · 65yRight, 10–14 air yards: 13 throws (5%), 7 caught (54%), 110 yds, 8.5 per throw1354% · 110yRight, 15–19 air yards: 9 throws (4%), 3 caught (33%), 110 yds, 12.2 per throw933% · 110yRight, 20–29 air yards: 9 throws (4%), 3 caught (33%), 77 yds, 8.6 per throw933% · 77yRight, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 2 caught (100%), 67 yds, 33.5 per throw2100% · 67y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on222 throws charted

61% comp7.3 avg. depth4.9 YAC/catch8% 20+ air yds7–2 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 17 throws (8%), 13 caught (76%), 87 yds, 5.1 per throw1776% · 87yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 20 throws (9%), 14 caught (70%), 117 yds, 5.8 per throw2070% · 117yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 18 throws (8%), 10 caught (56%), 92 yds, 5.1 per throw1856% · 92yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 15 throws (7%), 6 caught (40%), 108 yds, 7.2 per throw1540% · 108yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 3 caught (43%), 31 yds, 4.4 per throw743% · 31yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 3 caught (75%), 128 yds, 32.0 per throw475% · 128yLeft, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 30 yds, 15.0 per throw250% · 30yMiddle, Behind air yards: 2 throws (1%), 2 caught (100%), 10 yds, 5.0 per throw2100% · 10yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 13 throws (6%), 8 caught (62%), 60 yds, 4.6 per throw1362% · 60yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 12 throws (5%), 10 caught (83%), 92 yds, 7.7 per throw1283% · 92yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 11 throws (5%), 7 caught (64%), 113 yds, 10.3 per throw1164% · 113yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 3 caught (50%), 53 yds, 8.8 per throw650% · 53yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 3 throws (1%), 1 caught (33%), 28 yds, 9.3 per throw333% · 28yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 36 yds, 18.0 per throw250% · 36yRight, Behind air yards: 21 throws (9%), 15 caught (71%), 56 yds, 2.7 per throw2171% · 56yRight, 0–4 air yards: 21 throws (9%), 12 caught (57%), 45 yds, 2.1 per throw2157% · 45yRight, 5–9 air yards: 23 throws (10%), 18 caught (78%), 181 yds, 7.9 per throw2378% · 181yRight, 10–14 air yards: 13 throws (6%), 6 caught (46%), 82 yds, 6.3 per throw1346% · 82yRight, 15–19 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 2 caught (40%), 31 yds, 6.2 per throw540% · 31yRight, 20–29 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 1 caught (25%), 27 yds, 6.8 per throw425% · 27yRight, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw30% · 0y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction277 carries

Left
24%
7.1 YPC · 57% succ.
Middle
48%
4.8 YPC · 35% succ.
Right
28%
5.3 YPC · 44% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced231 carries

Left
19%
3.7 YPC · 36% succ.
Middle
55%
4.3 YPC · 40% succ.
Right
26%
4.2 YPC · 42% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Manny Diaz

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
2Walker EgetQBSR6' 3"235Santa Clarita, CA
10Dan MahanQBFR6' 2"200Burlington, NC
11Ari PatuQBSR6' 4"230Folsom, CA
12Blaine HipaQBSR6' 2"200Kailua, HI
13Terry Walker IIIQBFR6' 4"190Indianapolis, IN
16Lawrence GardnerQBFR6' 0"200Dallas, TX
0CJ Campbell Jr.RBSR5' 10"200Kaplan, LA
20Nate SheppardRBSO5' 10"205Mandeville, LA
22Jayvian TanelusRBFR5' 10"195Naples, FL
24Wilhelm Daal IIRBSR6' 1"215Amityville, NY
26CJ GiversRBFR5' 11"200Roswell, GA
28Cole DensonRBSO6' 0"200Rye, NY
83Paul Holyfield Jr.RBSR6' 0"200Los Angeles, CA
1Jamien LittleWRFR6' 2"185Hickory, NC
3Blake RohrerWRSR6' 3"215Woodbury, MN
4Jaivon SolomonWRFR6' 1"190Gray, GA
5Javen NicholasWRSR5' 9"190New Orleans, LA
6Jonah BurtonWRSR5' 11"210Simi Valley, CA
7Kavon SimmonsWRFR6' 1"190Wake Forest, NC
8Jayden MooreWRSO5' 8"190Sykesville, MD
9Kavon ConciauroWRFR6' 4"200Reidsville, GA
17Jared RichardsonWRSR6' 2"220Blakeslee, PA
18Brody KeefeWRFR6' 3"200Charlotte, NC
21Qeanu JohnsonWRFR5' 11"195Hamden, CT
88Paxon KetteringWRSO6' 4"200Bend, OR
89Jackson MaggioreWRFR6' 0"180San Diego, CA
15Jake TaylorTESR6' 5"240Apex, NC
44Nate KuriskyTESR6' 3"245Leesburg, VA
46Tony BoggsTEJR6' 4"295Wartrace, TN
80Benjamin MoseleyTEFR6' 4"200Centre, AL
81Brett ElliottTESO6' 3"240Holliston, MA
84Jack GaskinsTEFR6' 3"240Mclean, VA
85Jeremiah HasleyTESR6' 3"250Gibsonia, PA
54Daniel BoydOLFR6' 2"305Las Vegas, NV
55Ryan DalyOLSO6' 0"295Venice, FL
56Nick Del GrandeOLSR6' 4"300Lancaster, PA
60Sean StoverOLFR6' 4"305Prosper, TX
62Cole AllenOLFR6' 5"300Jackson, MS
63Bradley SmithOLSO6' 2"305Newnan, GA
64Jordan LarsenOLSR6' 3"310Harrisburg, SD
65Kai JacobowitzOLFR6' 7"315Carlsbad, CA
66Caleb DorrisOLJR6' 6"310White House, TN
71Jamin BrownOLFR6' 3"300Gadsden, AL
72Matt CraycraftOLSR6' 3"305Dallas, TX
74Reagan McCranieOLJR6' 2"315Rutherfordton, NC
75Micah SahakianOLSR6' 5"320Mount Prospect, IL
76Gemyel AllenOLSO6' 3"320Buford, GA
77Braden MillerOLSR6' 6"315Aurora, CO
78Nathan KutufarisOLFR6' 5"300Springfield, PA
79Roman FinaOLFR6' 4"295Tucson, AZ
10Tyshon ReedDEJR6' 3"250Moultrie, GA
12Bryce DavisDESO6' 3"265Greensboro, NC
13Obinna UmehDEFR6' 3"230Houston, TX
15Kevin O'ConnorDEJR6' 4"245Easton, MD
18Kobe SmithDESO6' 3"225Chattanooga, TN
43Semaj TurnerDESO6' 3"255Winston-Salem, NC
90Tommy RupleyDEFR6' 4"240Acton, MA
93Sampson OnuohaDEFR6' 3"240London, England
98Jaylen CarlDESO6' 4"250High Point, NC
44David AndersonDTJR6' 4"290Hampton, VA
50Chadwicke Cannon Jr.DTFR6' 1"280Port Orange, FL
55Julius ColumbusDTFR6' 1"285Gainesville, GA
88Bariate KaraDTFR6' 5"290Loganville, GA
91Owen WafleDTSO6' 2"285Middletown, NJ
95Preston WatsonDTJR6' 1"300Lake Mary, FL
97Ayden CainDTFR6' 1"280Gainesville, GA
99Dakota QuinonezDTSR6' 1"290Moore, SC
7Nick Morris Jr.LBSR6' 3"235Fairfield, CT
11Derrick Brown Jr.LBSO6' 2"225Waxhaw, NC
19Jon MorrisLBSO6' 2"215Fairfield, CT
24Bradley GompersLBSO6' 5"230Pittsburgh, PA
30Will Felder Jr.LBFR6' 0"195Willingboro, NJ
31Elliott SchaperLBSO6' 3"220Austin, TX
32Tony GrimmerLBFR5' 11"205Alpine, UT
33Colsen GattenLBFR6' 1"220Pittsburgh, PA
34Luke MergottLBJR6' 3"225Berlin, MD
40Asher WassermanLBFR6' 2"225Hamden, CT
42Kendall JohnsonLBJR6' 3"225Gaithersburg, MD
0Dylan FlowersCBSR5' 10"185Playa Del Rey, CA
1Kyon LoudCBSO6' 2"190Richmond, CA
3Landan CallahanCBSO5' 11"185Rural Hall, NC
4Evan SmithCBSR5' 10"185Birmingham, AL
5Kimari RobinsonCBJR5' 10"180Miramar, FL
9Che OjarikreCBSR6' 2"205Alpharetta, GA
23Kolbe HarmonCBFR5' 10"180Brentwood, TN
26Tyson SanfordCBFR5' 11"195Suwanee, GA
28Kaleb LanierCBFR6' 0"190Decatur, GA
2Patrick Smith-YoungSSR5' 9"184Sugar Land, TX
6Leon Griffin IIISJR5' 11"195Virginia Beach, VA
8DaShawn StoneSJR6' 3"195Asheville, NC
21KD CottonSFR5' 9"185Charlotte, NC
29Brady WinterSFR5' 11"200New York, NY
35Andrew PellicciottaSSO5' 11"200Malvern, PA
37Lyrik PettisSFR6' 0"195Shelby, NC
25Gavin StrangePKFR5' 11"175Southlake, TX
31Mika LevyPKFR6' 3"240Mclean, VA
39Cosme SalasPKSO5' 7"185Palmetto Bay, FL
41Kade ReynoldsonPJR6' 2"195Gold Coast, Australia
49Jack RoniloLSJR6' 1"215Birmingham, AL
52Jake FitzgeraldLSSR6' 0"205La Canada, CA

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2023 (+7.0, #26) · worst: 2021 (-13.6, #122)
-100+10FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#44
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far6-23-2#39+7.8+2.8+4.9
20259-56-2#44+4.3+7.5-3.2
20249-45-3#53+2.10.0+2.1
20238-54-4#26+7.0+1.7+5.3
20229-45-3#44+3.9+2.9+1.1
20213-90-8#122-13.6-6.0-7.6
20202-91-9#112-9.9-3.7-6.2
20195-73-5#63-0.6-1.4+0.8
20188-53-5#43+4.1+1.8+2.3
20177-63-5#37+4.5-0.7+5.1
20164-81-7#74-2.2-3.3+1.1
20158-54-4#61+1.9+1.6+0.3
20149-45-3#36+5.8+3.0+2.8

Duke's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Nov 3, 12:25 PM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →