Basketball ↗
Power RankingsThis WeekTeamsDepth ChartsPlayersPlaysRecruitingBettingAwardsPast SeasonsPortalSOON
ACC · 2026

NC State Wolfpack

Head coach Todd Goebbel · Carter-Finley Stadium
4-42-3 in conference
TDC Rank
#67
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
+1.9
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
+3.2
47th in FBS
Defense
-1.3
75th in FBS
Schedule so far
-2.0
65th toughest
Projected
5.6-6.4
bowl-eligible 54%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

+1.9 now, +1.9 preseason · down 13 spots since preseason
0+5+10FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8Wk 9#67

Final record odds

5.6-6.4 expected · most likely 6-6 (35%)
12%4-834%5-735%6-616%7-58-4

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
CJ Bailey
QB · JR · 24th in FBS
1955yds
13 TD · 4 INT
Rushing
Jayden Scott
RB · JR · 165th in FBS
358yds
62 car · 4 TD
Receiving
Keenan Jackson
WR · JR · 94th in FBS
456yds
30 rec · 6 TD
Tackles
Popo Aguirre
LB · SR · 14th in FBS
77tkl
4 TFL
Sacks
Elijah Satchell
LB · FR · 75th in FBS
4sacks
4 hurries
Interceptions
Jaren Sensabaugh
CB · JR · 49th in FBS
2INT
2 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Aug 29@47VirginiaCONFL 8–34 ›-15.1—ESPN
2Sep 11vsRichmond FCSW 73–0 ›+6.4—ESPNU
3Sep 19@64VanderbiltL 31–35 ›+1.9—SEC Network
4Sep 26vs104App StateW 41–31 ›-3.9—ESPNU
5Oct 3vs15LouisvilleCONFW 31–28 ›+15.5—ACC Network
6Oct 10vs14Wake ForestCONFL 14–38 ›-11.5—CW
7—Bye
8Oct 23@100StanfordCONFL 28–31 ›-9.1—ESPN
9Oct 31vs93CaliforniaCONFW 31–10 ›+10.6—ACC Network
10Nov 7vs39DukeCONFDuke −2.2 · o/u 55.6—44%CW
11Nov 14vs65SyracuseCONFNC State −3.6 · o/u 59.3—59%ACC Network
12Nov 21@41Florida StateCONFFlorida State −9.1 · o/u 61.6—27%
13Nov 28@50North CarolinaCONFNorth Carolina −6.9 · o/u 57.0—32%

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.20239th+0.169108th
Success rate44.9%45th42.6%89th
Explosiveness1.23776th1.321111th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate45.1%45th43.5%96th
Rushing success rate42.3%85th44.2%92nd
Passing success rate48.1%24th43.0%102nd
Explosive run rate8.8%131st17.1%127th
Explosive pass rate11.1%52nd10.8%89th
Line yards / carry2.86114th3.21102nd
Opportunity rate31.4%135th35.7%48th
Stuff rate17.2%74th19.1%50th
Sack rate4.3%47th3.5%120th
3rd-down conversion52.5%11th37.2%48th
Red-zone TD rate67.9%37th76.2%131st
Havoc rate13.3%64th11.8%112th
Box score · season totals
Points / game32.147th25.987th
Yards / game408.350th366.175th
Yards / play5.7456th5.70102nd
Pass yards / game249.440th235.1102nd
Yards / pass att.7.7055th7.3587th
Completion %64.5%53rd62.9%86th
Rush yards / game158.966th131.053rd
Yards / carry4.3074th4.2685th
3rd-down conv. %51.3%12th34.0%37th
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)1.2565th1.1278th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)1.7555th1.50104th
Penalty yards / game48.541st57.462nd

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
8.9
67th of 138
YAC per catch
5.4
71st of 138
Deep shots (20+)
14%
69th of 138
Shotgun
99%
17th of 138
No-huddle
58%
77th of 138
QB pressured
14%
59th of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
18%
15th of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
4.3
126th of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws251 throws charted

64% comp8.9 avg. depth5.4 YAC/catch14% 20+ air yds15–4 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 8 throws (3%), 7 caught (88%), 17 yds, 2.1 per throw888% · 17yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 18 throws (7%), 15 caught (83%), 105 yds, 5.8 per throw1883% · 105yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 17 throws (7%), 13 caught (76%), 124 yds, 7.3 per throw1776% · 124yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 3 caught (60%), 39 yds, 7.8 per throw560% · 39yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 6 caught (60%), 114 yds, 11.4 per throw1060% · 114yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 4 caught (57%), 135 yds, 19.3 per throw757% · 135yLeft, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw40% · 0yMiddle, Behind air yards: 6 throws (2%), 6 caught (100%), 26 yds, 4.3 per throw6100% · 26yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 18 throws (7%), 14 caught (78%), 145 yds, 8.1 per throw1878% · 145yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 19 throws (8%), 11 caught (58%), 85 yds, 4.5 per throw1958% · 85yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 8 throws (3%), 4 caught (50%), 70 yds, 8.8 per throw850% · 70yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 1 caught (20%), 19 yds, 3.8 per throw520% · 19yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 3 caught (60%), 101 yds, 20.2 per throw560% · 101yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 2 caught (100%), 72 yds, 36.0 per throw2100% · 72yRight, Behind air yards: 20 throws (8%), 17 caught (85%), 126 yds, 6.3 per throw2085% · 126yRight, 0–4 air yards: 23 throws (9%), 17 caught (74%), 119 yds, 5.2 per throw2374% · 119yRight, 5–9 air yards: 31 throws (12%), 23 caught (74%), 231 yds, 7.5 per throw3174% · 231yRight, 10–14 air yards: 15 throws (6%), 6 caught (40%), 86 yds, 5.7 per throw1540% · 86yRight, 15–19 air yards: 12 throws (5%), 7 caught (58%), 164 yds, 13.7 per throw1258% · 164yRight, 20–29 air yards: 13 throws (5%), 4 caught (31%), 132 yds, 10.2 per throw1331% · 132yRight, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (2%), 1 caught (20%), 46 yds, 9.2 per throw520% · 46y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on250 throws charted

63% comp9.1 avg. depth4.3 YAC/catch14% 20+ air yds18–4 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 8 throws (3%), 7 caught (88%), 78 yds, 9.8 per throw888% · 78yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 24 throws (10%), 17 caught (71%), 122 yds, 5.1 per throw2471% · 122yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 27 throws (11%), 16 caught (59%), 154 yds, 5.7 per throw2759% · 154yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 13 throws (5%), 8 caught (62%), 102 yds, 7.8 per throw1362% · 102yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 2 caught (40%), 33 yds, 6.6 per throw540% · 33yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 8 throws (3%), 2 caught (25%), 46 yds, 5.8 per throw825% · 46yLeft, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (2%), 3 caught (60%), 100 yds, 20.0 per throw560% · 100yMiddle, Behind air yards: 5 throws (2%), 3 caught (60%), 20 yds, 4.0 per throw560% · 20yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 16 throws (6%), 11 caught (69%), 59 yds, 3.7 per throw1669% · 59yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 14 throws (6%), 9 caught (64%), 90 yds, 6.4 per throw1464% · 90yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 13 throws (5%), 2 caught (15%), 28 yds, 2.2 per throw1315% · 28yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 4 caught (80%), 94 yds, 18.8 per throw580% · 94yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw20% · 0yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (2%), 2 caught (50%), 106 yds, 26.5 per throw450% · 106yRight, Behind air yards: 12 throws (5%), 12 caught (100%), 59 yds, 4.9 per throw12100% · 59yRight, 0–4 air yards: 33 throws (13%), 27 caught (82%), 176 yds, 5.3 per throw3382% · 176yRight, 5–9 air yards: 25 throws (10%), 17 caught (68%), 130 yds, 5.2 per throw2568% · 130yRight, 10–14 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 4 caught (57%), 53 yds, 7.6 per throw757% · 53yRight, 15–19 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 4 caught (40%), 67 yds, 6.7 per throw1040% · 67yRight, 20–29 air yards: 12 throws (5%), 7 caught (58%), 191 yds, 15.9 per throw1258% · 191yRight, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 2 caught (100%), 85 yds, 42.5 per throw2100% · 85y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction269 carries

Left
11%
6.6 YPC · 60% succ.
Middle
73%
4.5 YPC · 38% succ.
Right
16%
6.8 YPC · 51% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced219 carries

Left
16%
6.2 YPC · 51% succ.
Middle
70%
4.9 YPC · 43% succ.
Right
14%
4.7 YPC · 40% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Todd Goebbel

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
11CJ BaileyQBJR6' 6"218Miami, FL
12Tad HudsonQBSR6' 3"227Huntersville, NC
1Jayden ScottRBJR5' 10"220Stockbridge, GA
7Davion GauseRBJR5' 11"217Opa Locka, FL
14Jonathan PaylorRBJR5' 9"187Burlington, NC
20Deandre DesinorRBSO5' 10"186Delray Beach, FL
24Dylan McCoyRBFR5' 8"210Grayson, GA
25Darius JohnsonRBSR5' 10"211Hendersonville, TN
26Isiah JonesRBJR5' 8"195Rolesville, NC
29RJ BoydRBFR5' 10"217Waycross, GA
34Noah MossRBFR6' 0"205Daphne, AL
5Davion DozierWRSR6' 3"203Moody, AL
6Ashton LocklearWRSR6' 1"185Apex, NC
8Keenan JacksonWRJR6' 3"194Waxhaw, NC
12Teddy HoffmannWRSO6' 1"174Delray Beach, FL
21Je'rel BolderWRSO6' 0"208Wingate, NC
28Sam DoddWRSO6' 2"197Raleigh, NC
35Jason SchuttWRJR5' 7"162Mooresville, NC
36Cameron CornthwaiteWRJR5' 9"180Apex, NC
37Addison CarlsonWRJR5' 11"190Holly Springs, NC
80Ethan DowdyWRSR6' 2"192Powhatan, VA
82Chance RobinsonWRJR6' 2"209Fort Lauderdale, FL
83Amiri AckerWRFR6' 2"204Iva, SC
85Tyreek CopperWRFR6' 1"197Kinston, NC
89Jai RichburgWRFR6' 2"207Winston-Salem, NC
4Vander PloogTESO6' 6"253Fullerton, CA
19Preston DouglasTESO6' 3"237Jupiter, FL
44Gus RitcheyTESO6' 2"238Pittsboro, NC
84Stephen BrownTEFR6' 6"203Chicago, IL
86Hunter ProvienceTESR6' 5"261San Diego, CA
87Ian FlyntTEJR6' 4"276Katy, TX
50Daniel CruzOLJR6' 2"317North Richland Hills, TX
52Kage PayneOLSO6' 2"295Cincinnati, OH
53Matthew ClayOLFR6' 3"300Raleigh, NC
53Keoni RileyOLFR6' 3"285Jacksonville, NC
54Teague AndersenOLSR6' 5"322Lehi, UT
56Omarian AbrahamOLSO6' 1"300Fort Lauderdale, FL
60Joseph CastanedaOLJR6' 2"316Raeford, NC
62Jimarion McCrimonOLSR6' 5"314Kissimmee, FL
64Rico JacksonOLSR6' 6"316Fort Lauderdale, FL
67Henri ParisOLSR6' 3"310Kinston, NC
71Yousef MugharbilOLSR6' 5"327Murphy, NC
75Tre AikenOLFR6' 3"321Clinton, SC
76Michael GibbsOLSO6' 4"310Wilmington, NC
78Trent MitchellOLJR6' 5"316Gastonia, NC
93Carmelo McKenzieOLFR6' 1"322York, PA
73Brady SakowitzOTFR6' 6"316Richmond, VA
47Adrian FarrowDLSO6' 3"276Miami, FL
55Katron EvansDLSR6' 3"335Norfolk, VA
99AJ PrimDLSR6' 2"300Foley, AL
13Joseph AdedireDESR6' 3"254Arlington, TX
92Chase BondDEJR6' 4"252Massillon, OH
95JJ Ferguson Jr.DEFR6' 3"260St. Petersburg, FL
34Colby CronkDTSO6' 3"287Palm Coast, FL
80Damaad LewisDTFR6' 3"267Charlotte, NC
88Isaiah ShirleyDTSR6' 3"294Boone, NC
98Fabian KimbroughDTSR6' 3"290Stephens City, VA
0Popo AguirreLBSR6' 1"235Fayetteville, GA
5Harvey Dyson IIILBSR6' 2"257Cedar Hill, TX
8Da'Kaari NelsonLBSR6' 3"241Livingston, AL
15AJ RichardsonLBSR6' 1"235Kings Mountain, NC
25Sterling DixonLBJR6' 2"231Spanish Fort, AL
31Bailey BensonLBSO6' 0"214Covington, GA
32Caleb GordonLBFR5' 11"226Gastonia, NC
33Nathan HuffmanLBSO5' 11"184Apex, NC
33Ziggy MooreLBFR6' 2"232Pittsburgh, PA
35LaCorian HodgeLBSO6' 2"216Arlington, TX
37Lawrence Brown Jr.LBFR6' 3"224Grayson, GA
38Logan FoustLBJR6' 0"202Graham, NC
42Ke'Von CarterLBSO6' 3"245San Antonio, TX
43Koby SarkodieLBFR6' 3"220Baltimore, MD
44Jordan MoretaLBFR6' 1"230Union City, NJ
45Isaac PetersLBSR6' 1"247Lake Mary, FL
46Ryan KlimpLBSR6' 0"215Clayton, NC
47Jackson MastorLBJR6' 0"214Mooresville, NC
48Hunter JacksonLBSO6' 1"226Raleigh, NC
52David CollinsLBSR6' 2"233Wilmington, NC
58Elijah SatchellLBFR6' 3"242Camden, NJ
20Ondre EvansDBJR6' 0"201Franklin, TN
6Asaad Brown Jr.CBJR6' 0"200Chesapeake, VA
7Brian Nelson IICBSR6' 0"200Pearland, TX
8Isaiah CrowellCBSR5' 11"185Kernersville, NC
12Caden GordonCBSO6' 1"192Lake Worth, FL
14Jaren SensabaughCBJR6' 1"193Nashville, TN
26Jordyn BestCBFR5' 10"183Hopkins, SC
28Dy'Lan JohnsonCBSO6' 4"190Baldwyn, MS
30Jordan JacksonCBFR5' 11"182Winter Park, FL
38DJ DillardCBJR5' 8"175Collinsville, VA
Jamel JohnsonCBSR5' 11"191Covington, GA
2Ronnie Royal IIISJR5' 9"188Gulf Shores, AL
4King MackSSR5' 10"195Miami, FL
21Chino AguirreSFR6' 0"208Locust Grove, GA
29Brody BarnhardtSJR6' 0"190Cornelius, NC
36Tristen HillSFR5' 10"193Lawrenceville, GA
39Tristan ClappSSO5' 11"170Concord, NC
49Hampton RoderickSSO5' 10"179Wilmington, NC
91Nick KonieczynskiPKJR5' 11"221Matthews, NC
98Drew LovelacePKSR6' 2"175
97Cristian HarthanPSO6' 5"190Waxhaw, NC
92Aiden AriasLSSR6' 0"203Fort Lauderdale, FL

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2017 (+8.3, #23) · worst: 2019 (-6.9, #106)
-50+5+10FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#42
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far4-42-3#67+1.9+3.2-1.3
20258-54-4#42+4.4+4.4-0.1
20246-73-5#78-1.7+1.5-3.1
20239-46-2#32+5.1+0.1+5.0
20228-54-4#41+4.1-2.7+6.7
20219-36-2#18+8.1+2.7+5.4
20208-47-3#72-0.7+0.4-1.1
20194-81-7#106-6.9-6.2-0.7
20189-45-3#34+5.5+2.5+3.0
20179-46-2#23+8.3+5.3+2.9
20167-63-5#39+5.2+0.1+5.1
20157-63-5#46+4.3+3.7+0.6
20148-53-5#56+1.3+0.6+0.7

NC State's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Nov 3, 12:25 PM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →