ACC · 2026
Florida State Seminoles
Head coach Mike Norvell · Doak Campbell Stadium
3-51-4 in conference
TDC Rank
#41
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
+7.3
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
+5.6
33rd in FBS
Defense
+1.7
56th in FBS
Schedule so far
+5.1
17th toughest
Projected
5.2-6.8
bowl-eligible 38%
Season Outlook
From the TDC Rating, updated after every game
Rating by week
+7.3 now, +9.4 preseason · down 9 spots since preseason
Final record odds
5.2-6.8 expected · most likely 5-7 (38%)
Team Leaders
Passing
Ashton Daniels
QB · SR · 22nd in FBS
1968yds
14 TD · 11 INT
Rushing
Ousmane Kromah
RB · SO · 47th in FBS
609yds
114 car · 5 TD
Receiving
Duce Robinson
WR · SR · 107th in FBS
438yds
24 rec · 4 TD
Tackles
Chris Jones
LB · JR · 119th in FBS
56tkl
4 TFL
Sacks
Rylan Kennedy
DL · SR · 17th in FBS
6sacks
2 hurries
Interceptions
Ashlynd Barker
DB · SR · 49th in FBS
2INT
3 PD
Schedule
Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result / TDC line | Game score | Win chance | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | vs 125New Mexico State | W 34–17 › | -2.7 | — | CW |
| 1 | Sep 7 | vs 29SMUCONF | L 24–27 › | +5.2 | — | ESPN |
| 2 | — | Bye | ||||
| 3 | Sep 19 | @ 7Alabama | L 36–50 › | +12.5 | — | ESPN2 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | vs Central Arkansas FCS | W 34–7 › | -6.2 | — | ACC Network |
| 5 | Oct 3 | vs 47VirginiaCONF | W 38–7 › | +28.6 | — | ESPN2 |
| 6 | Oct 9 | @ 15LouisvilleCONF | L 20–44 › | -4.1 | — | ESPN |
| 7 | Oct 17 | @ 3MiamiCONF | L 35–43 › | +20.5 | — | ESPN |
| 8 | — | Bye | ||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | vs 54ClemsonCONF | L 24–36 › | -11.1 | — | ACC Network |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @ 81Boston CollegeCONF | Florida State −7.3 · o/u 54.3 | — | ACC Network | |
| 11 | Nov 13 | @ 38PittsburghCONF | Pittsburgh −4.4 · o/u 54.8 | — | ESPN | |
| 12 | Nov 21 | vs 67NC StateCONF | Florida State −9.1 · o/u 61.6 | — | ||
| 13 | Nov 27 | vs 19Florida | Florida −4.0 · o/u 61.5 | — | ABC |
Team Stats
Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted
| Stat | Offense | FBS rank | Defense (allowed) | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com) | ||||
| EPA / play | +0.196 | 43rd | +0.221 | 123rd |
| Success rate | 43.3% | 57th | 42.9% | 93rd |
| Explosiveness | 1.405 | 7th | 1.363 | 123rd |
| Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play) | ||||
| Success rate | 43.1% | 64th | 43.7% | 101st |
| Rushing success rate | 45.1% | 52nd | 42.7% | 74th |
| Passing success rate | 40.9% | 79th | 44.7% | 115th |
| Explosive run rate | 15.3% | 38th | 13.7% | 81st |
| Explosive pass rate | 18.1% | 2nd | 12.2% | 121st |
| Line yards / carry | 3.35 | 30th | 3.16 | 94th |
| Opportunity rate | 40.8% | 49th | 36.9% | 62nd |
| Stuff rate | 13.7% | 20th | 16.5% | 93rd |
| Sack rate | 8.5% | 126th | 6.5% | 46th |
| 3rd-down conversion | 40.0% | 81st | 39.6% | 72nd |
| Red-zone TD rate | 70.0% | 26th | 60.0% | 71st |
| Havoc rate | 13.3% | 64th | 14.0% | 67th |
| Box score · season totals | ||||
| Points / game | 30.6 | 54th | 28.9 | 105th |
| Yards / game | 414.4 | 45th | 424.4 | 127th |
| Yards / play | 6.18 | 35th | 5.86 | 111th |
| Pass yards / game | 248.6 | 43rd | 247.9 | 114th |
| Yards / pass att. | 9.10 | 13th | 7.87 | 115th |
| Completion % | 59.4% | 102nd | 61.9% | 73rd |
| Rush yards / game | 165.8 | 57th | 176.5 | 111th |
| Yards / carry | 4.50 | 56th | 4.64 | 105th |
| 3rd-down conv. % | 38.6% | 84th | 40.0% | 89th |
| Turnovers / game (lost · forced) | 1.75 | 126th | 0.75 | 121st |
| Sacks / game (allowed · made) | 2.75 | 116th | 2.88 | 15th |
| Penalty yards / game | 54.3 | 61st | 60.4 | 46th |
Charting
Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest
Partial season. ESPN's play-by-play has throw and catch spots for 7 of this team's 8 games, so the maps and air-yard numbers cover those games only. Ranks compare teams on whatever each had charted.
Avg. depth of throw
10.4
21st of 138YAC per catch
8.1
2nd of 138Deep shots (20+)
19%
10th of 138Shotgun
98%
47th of 138No-huddle
92%
12th of 138QB pressured
22%
5th of 138 (1st = most)Defense: pressure rate
19%
11th of 138Defense: YAC allowed
5.3
58th of 138 (1st = most)Offense: where it throws185 throws charted
59% comp10.4 avg. depth8.1 YAC/catch19% 20+ air yds14–11 TD–INT
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.
Defense: where it's thrown on211 throws charted
61% comp8.8 avg. depth5.3 YAC/catch13% 20+ air yds14–4 TD–INT
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.
Offense: run direction223 carries
Left
28%
5.0 YPC · 48% succ.Middle
48%
5.6 YPC · 51% succ.Right
24%
6.3 YPC · 51% succ.Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.
Defense: runs faced239 carries
Left
23%
7.1 YPC · 47% succ.Middle
54%
4.2 YPC · 40% succ.Right
23%
9.0 YPC · 52% succ.Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.
Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.
Roster
100 players · Head coach Mike Norvell
100 players
| # | Player | Pos▲ | Class | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malachi Marshall | QB | JR | 6' 2" | 168 | Charlotte, NC |
| 4 | Dean DeNobile | QB | SR | 6' 2" | 203 | Upper Saddle River, NJ |
| 9 | Kevin Sperry | QB | SO | 6' 1" | 210 | Denton, TX |
| 12 | Michael Grant | QB | SR | 6' 3" | 216 | Tallahassee, FL |
| 14 | Ashton Daniels | QB | SR | 6' 2" | 225 | Buford, GA |
| 16 | Jaden O'Neal | QB | FR | 6' 3" | 231 | Long Beach, CA |
| 3 | Samuel Singleton Jr. | RB | SR | 5' 11" | 205 | Charleston, SC |
| 21 | Zay Parks | RB | JR | 5' 11" | 204 | Crestview, FL |
| 22 | Gemari Sands | RB | SR | 5' 11" | 208 | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 24 | Amari Thomas | RB | FR | 5' 11" | 210 | Marianna, FL |
| 32 | Ousmane Kromah | RB | SO | 6' 1" | 216 | Leesburg, GA |
| 0 | Duce Robinson | WR | SR | 6' 6" | 230 | Phoenix, AZ |
| 7 | Jasen Lopez | WR | FR | 6' 0" | 182 | Hollywood, FL |
| 8 | Micahi Danzy | WR | JR | 6' 1" | 194 | Tallahassee, FL |
| 11 | Devin Carter | WR | FR | 6' 1" | 176 | Atlanta, GA |
| 13 | Tae'Shaun Gelsey | WR | SO | 6' 4" | 227 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 15 | Jayvan Boggs | WR | SO | 6' 1" | 209 | Cocoa, FL |
| 82 | Teriq Mallory | WR | SO | 6' 5" | 215 | New Haven, CT |
| 84 | Brandon Bennett | WR | FR | 6' 0" | 180 | Miramar, FL |
| 86 | Tony Bland | WR | FR | 6' 0" | 193 | Tampa, FL |
| 88 | Keenen Jeune | WR | FR | 6' 0" | 195 | Tallahassee, FL |
| 6 | Desirrio Riles | TE | SR | 6' 3" | 235 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 18 | Landen Thomas | TE | JR | 6' 4" | 234 | Moultrie, GA |
| 23 | Chase Loftin | TE | SO | 6' 6" | 235 | Omaha, NE |
| 44 | Gavin Markey | TE | SO | 6' 1" | 234 | Athens, GA |
| 80 | Corbyn Fordham | TE | FR | 6' 4" | 235 | Ponte Vedra Beach, FL |
| 83 | Xavier Tiller | TE | FR | 6' 5" | 239 | Atlanta, GA |
| 85 | Drew Hardwick | TE | FR | 6' 5" | 224 | Milton, GA |
| 89 | Greyson Labiad | TE | SR | 6' 3" | 249 | Celebration, FL |
| 51 | Paul Bowling | OL | SO | 6' 3" | 305 | Marietta, GA |
| 52 | Chavez Thompson | OL | SO | 6' 1" | 318 | Cocoa, FL |
| 54 | Chastan Brown | OL | SO | 6' 8" | 300 | Warner Robins, GA |
| 56 | Steven Pickard | OL | FR | 6' 5" | 335 | Charleston, SC |
| 58 | Luke Francis Jr. | OL | FR | 6' 5" | 349 | Croydon, England |
| 59 | Steven Moore | OL | JR | 6' 5" | 327 | Memphis, TN |
| 63 | Jakobe Green | OL | FR | 6' 3" | 315 | Quincy, FL |
| 65 | André Otto | OL | SR | 6' 5" | 318 | Key West, FL |
| 69 | Mike Ionata | OL | FR | 6' 6" | 308 | East Lake, FL |
| 71 | Nate Pabst | OL | SR | 6' 7" | 315 | Springdale, OH |
| 72 | Donald Akhibi | OL | FR | 6' 7" | 260 | Douglasville, GA |
| 73 | Nikau Hepi | OL | FR | 6' 7" | 379 | Auckland, New Zealand |
| 74 | Jonathan Daniels | OL | JR | 6' 4" | 321 | Pensacola, FL |
| 75 | Sean Poret | OL | SO | 6' 5" | 296 | Sandy Springs, GA |
| 77 | Xavier Chaplin | OL | SR | 6' 8" | 346 | Beaufort, SC |
| 78 | Jayden Todd | OL | JR | 6' 6" | 303 | Dublin, GA |
| 79 | Chimdia Nwaiwu | OL | SR | 6' 5" | 307 | Coppell, TX |
| 1 | Darryll Desir | DL | SO | 6' 5" | 259 | Miami, FL |
| 3 | Mandrell Desir | DL | SO | 6' 4" | 270 | Miami, FL |
| 5 | Daniel Lyons | DL | SR | 6' 4" | 292 | Miami, FL |
| 8 | Deante McCray | DL | SR | 6' 4" | 291 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 13 | Deamontae Diggs | DL | SR | 6' 5" | 272 | Mckeesport, PA |
| 15 | Rylan Kennedy | DL | SR | 6' 3" | 251 | Mansfield, TX |
| 32 | Jalen Anderson | DL | JR | 6' 2" | 242 | Slidell, LA |
| 54 | Earnest Rankins | DL | FR | 6' 4" | 274 | Atlanta, GA |
| 88 | Jordan Sanders | DL | SR | 6' 4" | 310 | Inglewood, CA |
| 90 | Jaemin Pinckney | DL | FR | 6' 5" | 222 | Ridgeville, SC |
| 91 | Cam Brooks | DL | FR | 6' 4" | 243 | Thomasville, GA |
| 92 | Judah Daniels | DL | FR | 6' 3" | 272 | Lehigh Acres, FL |
| 95 | Christian Collins-Murray | DL | FR | 6' 3" | 224 | St. Petersburg, FL |
| 96 | Tylon Lee | DL | SO | 6' 4" | 271 | Pace, FL |
| 98 | Wihtlley Cadeau | DL | FR | 6' 5" | 284 | Atlanta, GA |
| 9 | Omar Graham Jr. | LB | SR | 6' 1" | 234 | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 10 | Chris Jones | LB | JR | 6' 1" | 231 | Byram, MS |
| 20 | Blake Nichelson | LB | SR | 6' 3" | 222 | Ripon, CA |
| 28 | Mikai Gbayor | LB | SR | 6' 2" | 222 | Irvington, NJ |
| 29 | Caleb LaVallee | LB | SR | 6' 1" | 225 | Marietta, GA |
| 31 | Karon Maycock | LB | FR | 6' 1" | 220 | Miami, FL |
| 35 | Ethan Pritchard | LB | SO | 6' 2" | 224 | Sanford, FL |
| 38 | Daylen Green | LB | FR | 6' 1" | 213 | Bainbridge, GA |
| 41 | AJ Cottrill | LB | SR | 6' 0" | 229 | Tampa, FL |
| 42 | Chris Thomas | LB | JR | 6' 2" | 230 | Southaven, MS |
| 43 | Trent Rogers | LB | FR | 6' 3" | 216 | Havana, FL |
| 45 | Noah LaVallee | LB | FR | 6' 2" | 227 | Marietta, GA |
| 53 | Brandon Torres | LB | SR | 6' 1" | 232 | Naples, FL |
| 0 | Quindarrius Jones | DB | SR | 6' 2" | 187 | Meridian, MS |
| 4 | Charles Lester III | DB | JR | 6' 1" | 195 | Sarasota, FL |
| 6 | Ja'Bril Rawls | DB | SR | 6' 1" | 178 | Pensacola, FL |
| 7 | Ashlynd Barker | DB | SR | 6' 3" | 217 | Columbus, GA |
| 11 | CJ Richard Jr. | DB | JR | 6' 1" | 200 | Houston, TX |
| 12 | Nehemiah Chandler | DB | JR | 6' 1" | 183 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 14 | Ma'Khi Jones | DB | SO | 5' 11" | 195 | Newark, NJ |
| 16 | Karson Hobbs | DB | JR | 6' 1" | 189 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 18 | Jamari Howard | DB | JR | 6' 2" | 190 | Miami, FL |
| 19 | Jarvis Boatwright Jr. | DB | JR | 6' 1" | 197 | Clearwater, FL |
| 21 | Max Redmon | DB | SO | 6' 1" | 196 | West Palm Beach, FL |
| 22 | Zae Thomas | DB | SO | 6' 3" | 207 | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 24 | K.J. Kirkland | DB | SR | 6' 1" | 209 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 26 | Ricky Knight III | DB | JR | 6' 0" | 184 | West Palm Beach, FL |
| 27 | Jordan Crutchfield | DB | FR | 6' 3" | 218 | Fort Pierce, FL |
| 33 | Antonio Cromartie Jr. | DB | SO | 6' 0" | 190 | Atlanta, GA |
| 37 | Tre Bell III | DB | FR | 5' 11" | 199 | Opa Locka, FL |
| 40 | Darin Townsend | DB | FR | 6' 0" | 155 | Clearwater, FL |
| 47 | Donny Hiebert | DB | SR | 6' 2" | 201 | Gainesville, FL |
| 39 | Gabe Panikowski | PK | SR | 5' 9" | 206 | San Diego, CA |
| 93 | Conor McAneney | PK | SO | 6' 3" | 213 | Plumbridge, Ireland |
| 36 | Daniel Hughes | P | SR | 6' 5" | 219 | Melbourne, Australia |
| 85 | Ethan Post | P | SO | 6' 3" | 230 | Rochester, MN |
| 87 | Carter Jula | P | JR | 6' 1" | 205 | Sarasota, FL |
| 48 | Caleb Bowers | LS | SR | 6' 1" | 237 | Whitefish Bay, WI |
| 53 | Alex Nocco | LS | SO | 6' 2" | 210 | Tampa, FL |
Program History
Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014
Final rating by season
Best: 2023 (+13.7, #10) · worst: 2020 (-7.1, #103)
| Season | Record | Conf | Rank | Rating | Off | Def |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 so far | 3-5 | 1-4 | #41 | +7.3 | +5.6 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 5-7 | 2-6 | #43 | +4.4 | +1.9 | +2.5 |
| 2024 | 2-10 | 1-7 | #96 | -5.0 | -7.5 | +2.5 |
| 2023 | 13-1 | 8-0 | #10 | +13.7 | +5.9 | +7.8 |
| 2022 | 10-3 | 5-3 | #12 | +10.5 | +6.2 | +4.3 |
| 2021 | 5-7 | 4-4 | #72 | -1.2 | -1.0 | -0.2 |
| 2020 | 3-6 | 2-6 | #103 | -7.1 | -2.0 | -5.1 |
| 2019 | 6-7 | 4-4 | #59 | -0.1 | +0.2 | -0.3 |
| 2018 | 5-7 | 3-5 | #89 | -3.4 | -3.1 | -0.3 |
| 2017 | 7-6 | 3-5 | #28 | +7.3 | +0.4 | +6.9 |
| 2016 | 10-3 | 5-3 | #10 | +11.9 | +6.7 | +5.1 |
| 2015 | 10-3 | 6-2 | #12 | +11.3 | +4.1 | +7.2 |
| 2014 | 13-1 | 8-0 | #14 | +11.4 | +7.8 | +3.6 |
Florida State's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.
Updated Nov 3, 12:25 PM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →