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ACC · 2026

Virginia Cavaliers

Head coach Tony Elliott · Scott Stadium
4-52-4 in conference
TDC Rank
#47
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
+5.9
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
+0.5
67th in FBS
Defense
+5.5
32nd in FBS
Schedule so far
+0.9
44th toughest
Projected
5.9-6.1
bowl-eligible 70%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

+5.9 now, +11.9 preseason · down 23 spots since preseason
0+5+10+15+20FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8Wk 9#47

Final record odds

5.9-6.1 expected · most likely 6-6 (48%)
4-827%5-748%6-622%7-5

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Beau Pribula
QB · SR · 69th in FBS
1587yds
14 TD · 3 INT
Rushing
Jekail Middlebrook
RB · SR · 73rd in FBS
513yds
105 car · 4 TD
Receiving
Da'Shawn Martin
WR · JR · 166th in FBS
372yds
26 rec · 6 TD
Tackles
Maddox Marcellus
LB · SR · 277th in FBS
45tkl
4.5 TFL
Sacks
Matthew Fobbs-White
DE · SR · 36th in FBS
5sacks
9 hurries
Interceptions
Brandyn Hillman
S · SR · 16th in FBS
3INT
1 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Aug 29vs67NC StateCONFW 34–8 ›+22.9—ESPN
2Sep 11vsNorfolk State FCSW 59–3 ›+2.0—ACCNX
3Sep 19vs69West VirginiaNEUTRALL 27–38 ›-10.5—ACC Network
4Sep 26vs101DelawareW 42–3 ›+15.6—ACC Network
5Oct 3@41Florida StateCONFL 7–38 ›-15.5—ESPN2
6Oct 10vs65SyracuseCONFW 28–25 ›+1.3—ACC Network
7Oct 17@29SMUCONFL 13–23 ›+5.6—CW
8Oct 23vs39DukeCONFL 16–19 ›+1.0—ESPN
9Oct 31@14Wake ForestCONFL 7–51 ›-11.1—ESPN2
10—Bye
11Nov 14vs93CaliforniaCONFVirginia −16.3 · o/u 50.9—86%ACC Network
12Nov 21vs50North CarolinaCONFVirginia −4.6 · o/u 47.6—62%
13Nov 28@49Virginia TechCONFVirginia Tech −3.5 · o/u 51.6—41%

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.15162nd+0.12488th
Success rate43.0%62nd41.2%72nd
Explosiveness1.120128th1.23065th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate43.6%57th41.2%67th
Rushing success rate45.1%52nd42.5%71st
Passing success rate41.7%70th39.8%61st
Explosive run rate13.8%68th13.0%68th
Explosive pass rate9.7%83rd11.6%106th
Line yards / carry3.2938th3.0881st
Opportunity rate38.1%81st38.1%80th
Stuff rate15.7%46th15.8%96th
Sack rate9.3%130th6.5%46th
3rd-down conversion25.8%138th37.5%52nd
Red-zone TD rate66.7%39th61.9%84th
Havoc rate12.4%50th14.4%59th
Box score · season totals
Points / game25.987th23.158th
Yards / game357.494th350.161st
Yards / play5.07112th5.2971st
Pass yards / game212.086th189.737th
Yards / pass att.7.5065th6.9156th
Completion %65.1%44th53.9%8th
Rush yards / game145.488th160.495th
Yards / carry3.70110th4.3589th
3rd-down conv. %30.0%137th36.0%51st
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)0.6713th1.0097th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)3.11128th1.8980th
Penalty yards / game46.330th51.994th

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
8.4
89th of 138
YAC per catch
5.2
79th of 138
Deep shots (20+)
13%
91st of 138
Shotgun
93%
92nd of 138
No-huddle
30%
98th of 138
QB pressured
17%
22nd of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
17%
29th of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
5.2
69th of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws243 throws charted

65% comp8.4 avg. depth5.2 YAC/catch13% 20+ air yds18–4 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 13 throws (5%), 13 caught (100%), 131 yds, 10.1 per throw13100% · 131yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 30 throws (12%), 24 caught (80%), 163 yds, 5.4 per throw3080% · 163yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 27 throws (11%), 17 caught (63%), 175 yds, 6.5 per throw2763% · 175yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 6 throws (2%), 3 caught (50%), 54 yds, 9.0 per throw650% · 54yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (2%), 4 caught (67%), 56 yds, 9.3 per throw667% · 56yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 6 throws (2%), 3 caught (50%), 80 yds, 13.3 per throw650% · 80yLeft, 30+ air yards: 1 throws (0%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0yMiddle, Behind air yards: 5 throws (2%), 5 caught (100%), 2 yds, 0.4 per throw5100% · 2yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 7 caught (70%), 91 yds, 9.1 per throw1070% · 91yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 19 throws (8%), 12 caught (63%), 98 yds, 5.2 per throw1963% · 98yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 11 throws (5%), 6 caught (55%), 119 yds, 10.8 per throw1155% · 119yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 2 caught (40%), 31 yds, 6.2 per throw540% · 31yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 5 caught (71%), 139 yds, 19.9 per throw771% · 139yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 1 throws (0%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0yRight, Behind air yards: 13 throws (5%), 11 caught (85%), 59 yds, 4.5 per throw1385% · 59yRight, 0–4 air yards: 25 throws (10%), 20 caught (80%), 126 yds, 5.0 per throw2580% · 126yRight, 5–9 air yards: 19 throws (8%), 13 caught (68%), 105 yds, 5.5 per throw1968% · 105yRight, 10–14 air yards: 17 throws (7%), 6 caught (35%), 85 yds, 5.0 per throw1735% · 85yRight, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (2%), 3 caught (50%), 57 yds, 9.5 per throw650% · 57yRight, 20–29 air yards: 8 throws (3%), 2 caught (25%), 53 yds, 6.6 per throw825% · 53yRight, 30+ air yards: 8 throws (3%), 3 caught (38%), 164 yds, 20.5 per throw838% · 164y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on238 throws charted

54% comp11.1 avg. depth5.2 YAC/catch22% 20+ air yds8–9 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 15 throws (6%), 14 caught (93%), 94 yds, 6.3 per throw1593% · 94yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 23 throws (10%), 17 caught (74%), 109 yds, 4.7 per throw2374% · 109yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 17 throws (7%), 10 caught (59%), 116 yds, 6.8 per throw1759% · 116yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 8 throws (3%), 6 caught (75%), 92 yds, 11.5 per throw875% · 92yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 2 caught (33%), 39 yds, 6.5 per throw633% · 39yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw40% · 0yLeft, 30+ air yards: 11 throws (5%), 2 caught (18%), 77 yds, 7.0 per throw1118% · 77yMiddle, Behind air yards: 1 throws (0%), 1 caught (100%), 12 yds, 12.0 per throw1100% · 12yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 3 throws (1%), 2 caught (67%), 18 yds, 6.0 per throw367% · 18yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 15 throws (6%), 7 caught (47%), 52 yds, 3.5 per throw1547% · 52yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 3 caught (75%), 39 yds, 9.8 per throw475% · 39yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw40% · 0yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 29 yds, 14.5 per throw250% · 29yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (1%), 3 caught (100%), 130 yds, 43.3 per throw3100% · 130yRight, Behind air yards: 15 throws (6%), 11 caught (73%), 79 yds, 5.3 per throw1573% · 79yRight, 0–4 air yards: 26 throws (11%), 16 caught (62%), 104 yds, 4.0 per throw2662% · 104yRight, 5–9 air yards: 20 throws (8%), 14 caught (70%), 114 yds, 5.7 per throw2070% · 114yRight, 10–14 air yards: 18 throws (8%), 12 caught (67%), 184 yds, 10.2 per throw1867% · 184yRight, 15–19 air yards: 11 throws (5%), 2 caught (18%), 64 yds, 5.8 per throw1118% · 64yRight, 20–29 air yards: 18 throws (8%), 4 caught (22%), 146 yds, 8.1 per throw1822% · 146yRight, 30+ air yards: 14 throws (6%), 6 caught (43%), 211 yds, 15.1 per throw1443% · 211y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction314 carries

Left
22%
5.1 YPC · 46% succ.
Middle
55%
4.3 YPC · 42% succ.
Right
22%
5.8 YPC · 49% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced306 carries

Left
19%
4.4 YPC · 41% succ.
Middle
59%
5.3 YPC · 45% succ.
Right
22%
5.2 YPC · 52% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Tony Elliott

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
6Cole GeerQBSO6' 1"209Griswold, CT
7Beau PribulaQBSR6' 2"209York, PA
10Eli HolsteinQBSR6' 4"234Zachary, LA
14Boone LourdQBJR6' 1"203Los Angeles, CA
16Ely HamrickQBFR6' 5"230Shelby, NC
0Xavier BrownRBSR5' 10"202Lexington, KY
2Peyton LewisRBJR6' 1"212Salem, VA
21Jekail MiddlebrookRBSR5' 10"198Atlanta, GA
25Xay DavisRBSO5' 10"205Richmond, VA
28Solomon BeebeRBJR5' 10"199Montgomery, AL
4Jacquon GibsonWRSR5' 11"196Fayetteville, NC
5Kameron CourtneyWRJR5' 11"195Manassas, VA
8Ty'Lyric ColemanWRSR6' 2"198Danville, VA
11Rico Flores Jr.WRSR6' 2"211North Highlands, CA
13Josiah AbdullahWRSO5' 10"192Columbus, GA
15Dillon Newton-ShortWRSO6' 0"206Matoaca, VA
18Da'Shawn MartinWRJR6' 0"180Springfield, OH
22Tyson DavisWRSR5' 10"187Flint, MI
26Jack RhodesWRFR6' 1"175Augusta, GA
27Kyle AltWR6' 2"184Leesburg, VA
45Brand MorganWRSO6' 3"207Atlanta, GA
80Trevor LaddWRJR6' 2"242Encinitas, CA
81TeKai KirbyWRSR6' 2"232Fort Lauderdale, FL
82DaMari CarterWRFR6' 2"200Richmond, VA
84Isaiah RobinsonWRSO6' 2"215Chester, VA
85Dylan CopeWRFR6' 3"193Trussville, AL
30Henry OmohundroTEJR6' 3"251Midlothian, VA
88Connor CoxTESR6' 6"250Jacksonville, FL
89John RogersTESO6' 4"239The Plains, VA
94Hayden RollisonTESR6' 3"235Richmond, VA
51Grayson ReidOLSO6' 3"309Washington, DC
52McKale BoleyOLSR6' 5"329Hattiesburg, MS
55Jim Harris Jr.OLSO6' 5"295Muskegon, MI
57Luke HatfieldOLFR6' 4"285Haymarket, VA
58Noah HartsoeOLSR6' 3"317Henrico, VA
60Drake MetcalfOLSR6' 2"304Orange, CA
65Grant EllingerOLJR6' 4"303Naperville, IL
66Mikey GildeaOLFR6' 4"298New Canaan, CT
67Will RosenOLJR6' 1"290Richmond, VA
69Ryan BrubakerOLSR6' 6"313Reamstown, PA
71Monroe MillsOLSR6' 7"322Columbia, MO
75Dylan BiehlOLFR6' 4"277Suwanee, GA
76Alex PayneOLSO6' 5"312Gainesville, GA
77Noah JoseyOLSR6' 5"315Murfreesboro, TN
79Jon AdairOLSO6' 5"308Franklin, TN
88Kervins ChouteDLSR6' 4"293Fort Lauderdale, FL
6Cazeem MooreDESR6' 4"252Vanceboro, NC
14Fisher CamacDESR6' 7"262Gilbert, AZ
16Matthew Fobbs-WhiteDESR6' 3"245Monroe, LA
33Nnanna AnyanwuDESR6' 5"251Hampton, GA
53Gavin JohnsonDESO6' 1"234Richmond, VA
85Jewett HayesDEJR6' 4"241Cincinnati, OH
93Billy KoudelkaDEJR6' 8"256Lynchburg, VA
94Ezekiel LarryDESR6' 2"240Palmdale, CA
99Devon BaxterDEJR6' 6"244Clinton, MD
44Darrion Henry-YoungDTSR6' 4"295Cincinnati, OH
46Chase MorrisonDTJR6' 4"271Roswell, GA
51Sichan JohnDTSO6' 3"302Lawrenceville, GA
55Anthony BrittonDTSR6' 3"308Norfolk, VA
56Tyler SimmonsDTJR6' 3"278Windermere, FL
91Jason HammondDTSR6' 2"284Miami, FL
92Jonathan AllenDTSR6' 2"304Birmingham, AL
96Bull RichardsonDTFR6' 1"300Richmond, VA
5Kam RobinsonLBSR6' 2"239Tappahannock, VA
11Maddox MarcellusLBSR6' 2"232Miami, FL
13Myles BrownLBJR6' 3"226Columbia, SC
26Caleb HardyLBSR6' 4"217Mcdonough, GA
28Dallas BrannonLBFR6' 2"219Charlotte, NC
32Landon DanleyLBSR6' 3"225Irmo, SC
42Isaiah ReeseLBSO6' 3"222Gilford, NH
45Justin RoweLBSO6' 2"239Ottawa, Canada
49Cayden Cook-CashLBJR6' 3"231Greenville, VA
0Ja'Maric MorrisDBSR6' 3"219Timmonsville, SC
2Donavon PlattDBSR5' 11"212Jamestown, NC
15Lukas SankerDBSR6' 0"202Charlottesville, VA
27Alex DunnDBFR6' 0"180Lynchburg, VA
31Patrick CampbellDBSR6' 0"195Snellville, GA
3Kevon GrayCBJR6' 0"180Atlanta, GA
7Josiah PersingerCBSO5' 11"179Roanoke, VA
9Jam JacksonCBSR6' 2"184Plant City, FL
10Jacobie HendersonCBSR5' 11"198Charlotte, NC
17Justin RossCBJR6' 2"187Gastonia, NC
20Omillio AgardCBJR5' 11"187Philadelphia, PA
22Isaiah HarrisCBFR6' 1"180Charlottesville, VA
29Jayden CovilCBFR5' 11"161Chesapeake, VA
4Corey CostnerSSO6' 1"213Baltimore, MD
6Brandyn HillmanSSR6' 0"190Portsmouth, VA
8Christian EllisSSR6' 0"206Jacksonville, FL
18Jalen McNairSSR5' 8"221White Plains, MD
21Keke AdamsSJR6' 0"198Hartford, CT
23Jaylen JonesSSR6' 1"205Charlotte, NC
30Ethan MinterSJR6' 0"195Chester, VA
34Kevin Chadwick Jr.SSR5' 11"209Vienna, VA
38Armstrong JonesSJR6' 1"183Atlanta, GA
14Tim HamannPKFR5' 11"180Dresden, Germany
41Will BettridgePKSR5' 11"191Miami, FL
43Chris MessmorePKFR6' 2"185Richmond, VA
90Aiden BellPKFR6' 0"175Winchester, VA
39Zach ChristinatLSJR6' 1"210Norwalk, CT
50Wyatt RubinoffLSJR6' 2"220St. Mary's, GA

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2025 (+6.6, #30) · worst: 2016 (-8.4, #103)
-10-50+5FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#30
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far4-52-4#47+5.9+0.5+5.5
202511-37-1#30+6.6+2.3+4.3
20245-73-5#87-3.5-2.8-0.8
20233-92-6#101-5.7-2.1-3.6
20223-71-6#97-5.9-6.2+0.3
20216-64-4#66+0.4+3.7-3.3
20205-54-5#59+0.9+1.0-0.2
20199-56-2#37+4.5+4.0+0.5
20188-54-4#38+4.8-1.3+6.0
20176-73-5#86-3.5-3.0-0.6
20162-101-7#103-8.4-4.4-4.0
20154-83-5#80-2.3-1.0-1.3
20145-73-5#52+2.1-2.0+4.1

Virginia's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Nov 3, 12:25 PM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →