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2026 Season · Week 5

Betting: Model vs. the Line

Game linesPlayer props

Our power-rating model's spread and total for every game next to the market's, graded honestly. The short version: against the closing line (the number at kickoff) the model is a coin flip, but against the opening line it has won when it disagrees by 4+ points, and the market has tended to move toward our number during the week. Timing is the edge: by kickoff the market has usually caught up.

Vs. the opener, 4+ pt gap
56.3%
325–252 regular season since 2023
Line moved toward us
56.5%
961–741 games where it moved after opening
Vs. the close, since 2015
50.3%
4,183–4,126: no edge once the market settles
2026 vs. opener, 4+ gap
51.9%
40–37 · vs. close 50.2% overall
Break-even
52.4%
what it takes to profit at standard −110 odds

This Week's Board

Our line vs. the market's opening and current consensus (median across sportsbooks, from ESPN), sorted by the gap to the opener

56 games · 3 without a line yet
Kickoff (ET)MatchupOpenedNowTDC lineGap vs. openTDC side at the openerMarket since openGap nowOpen totalTDC totalTotal leanTDC win %
Sat 4:00 PMUTEP @ New MexicoUNM −21.0UNM −22.5UNM −32.5+11.5UNM −21.0▲ toward us 1.5+10.053.555.7—98% UNMGame →
Sat 7:30 PMMiami @ ClemsonMIA −7.0MIA −17.5MIA −17.9-10.9MIA −7.0▲ toward us 10.5-0.455.552.8Under 55.588% MIAGame →
Sat 12:00 PMWest Virginia @ Iowa StateISU −1.5ISU −3.5ISU −11.8+10.3ISU −1.5▲ toward us 2.0+8.353.560.7Over 53.578% ISUGame →
Sat 12:00 PMMichigan @ MinnesotaMICH −8.5MICH −5.5Pick+8.6MINN +8.5▲ toward us 3.0+5.644.544.4Under 44.550% MINNGame →
Sat 3:45 PMMarshall @ James MadisonJMU −13.5JMU −18.5JMU −22.0+8.5JMU −13.5▲ toward us 5.0+3.555.560.2Over 55.593% JMUGame →
Sat 12:00 PMUCF @ HoustonHOU −12.5HOU −12.5HOU −5.0-7.5UCF +12.5no move-7.551.552.7—63% HOUGame →
Sat 4:15 PMPurdue @ IllinoisILL −10.0ILL −10.0ILL −17.5+7.5ILL −10.0no move+7.560.566.9Over 60.588% ILLGame →
Sat 4:00 PMMaryland @ NebraskaNEB −12.5NEB −14.5NEB −19.4+6.9NEB −12.5▲ toward us 2.0+4.953.552.7Under 53.590% NEBGame →
Thu 9:00 PMNorth Texas @ TulsaUNT −1.5TLSA −1.5UNT −8.2-6.7UNT −1.5▼ away 3.0-9.757.559.4—71% UNTGame →
Fri 7:00 PMLiberty @ DelawareLIB −7.0LIB −7.0LIB −0.3+6.7DEL +7.0no move+6.750.553.1—51% LIBGame →
Sat 12:00 PMSyracuse @ UConnSYR −6.5SYR −6.0Pick+6.6CONN +6.5▲ toward us 0.5+6.153.552.7Under 53.550% CONNGame →
Sat 12:00 PMMiddle Tennessee @ KansasKU −21.5KU −18.5KU −27.9+6.4KU −21.5▼ away 3.0+9.452.551.8Under 52.597% KUGame →
Sat 7:30 PMTemple @ South FloridaUSF −6.5USF −6.0USF −12.7+6.2USF −6.5▼ away 0.5+6.752.559.7Over 52.580% USFGame →
Sat 3:30 PMOhio State @ IowaOSU −14.0OSU −13.5OSU −8.4+5.6IOWA +14.0▲ toward us 0.5+5.144.546.2—71% OSUGame →
Sat 3:30 PMOhio @ Kent StateOHIO −5.5OHIO −3.0OHIO −10.4-4.9OHIO −5.5▼ away 2.5-7.452.556.1—75% OHIOGame →
Sat 7:30 PMArmy @ Louisiana TechARMY −3.5ARMY −2.5LT −1.3+4.8LT +3.5▲ toward us 1.0+3.844.554.2Over 44.553% LTGame →
Sat 7:30 PMTexas Tech @ ColoradoTTU −14.5TTU −13.5TTU −9.8+4.7COLO +14.5▲ toward us 1.0+3.750.552.4—74% TTUGame →
Sat 8:00 PMIndiana @ RutgersIU −23.5IU −24.5IU −28.2-4.7IU −23.5▲ toward us 1.0-3.753.558.7Over 53.597% IUGame →
Sat 12:00 PMNavy @ Air ForceAFA −1.5AFA −3.5AFA −5.8+4.3AFA −1.5▲ toward us 2.0+2.349.553.1—65% AFAGame →
Fri 8:00 PMPenn State @ NorthwesternPSU −7.0PSU −2.5PSU −2.8+4.2NU +7.0▲ toward us 4.5-0.348.548.2Under 48.557% PSUGame →
Sat 7:00 PMUL Monroe @ South AlabamaUSA −14.5USA −14.0USA −18.7+4.2USA −14.5▼ away 0.5+4.755.561.3Over 55.589% USAGame →
Sat 12:00 PMAlabama @ Mississippi StateALA −3.0ALA −5.5ALA −7.1-4.1ALA −3.0▲ toward us 2.5-1.658.567.2Over 58.568% ALAGame →
Sat 3:30 PMFlorida @ MissouriFLA −2.5FLA −4.5FLA −6.5-4.0FLA −2.5▲ toward us 2.0-2.053.561.1Over 53.567% FLAGame →
Sat 12:45 PMVanderbilt @ GeorgiaUGA −23.5UGA −24.5UGA −19.7-3.8VAN +23.5▼ away 1.0-4.857.555.4Under 57.590% UGAGame →
Sat 3:30 PMLouisville @ NC StateLOU −7.5LOU −5.5LOU −3.8+3.7NCSU +7.5▲ toward us 2.0+1.759.569.4Over 59.560% LOUGame →
Sat 3:30 PMEastern Michigan @ MassachusettsMASS −2.5MASS −4.5MASS −6.2+3.7MASS −2.5▲ toward us 2.0+1.748.547.9Under 48.566% MASSGame →
Sat 10:30 PMBaylor @ Arizona StateASU −3.5ASU −4.0ASU −7.2+3.7ASU −3.5▲ toward us 0.5+3.251.551.9Under 51.568% ASUGame →
Sat 4:15 PMKentucky @ South CarolinaSC −7.0SC −2.5SC −3.5-3.5UK +7.0▲ toward us 4.5+1.049.552.8—59% SCGame →
Sat 8:00 PMArkansas State @ LouisianaUL −4.0UL −6.5UL −7.5+3.5UL −4.0▲ toward us 2.5+1.049.552.0—69% ULGame →
Sat 3:30 PMVirginia @ Florida StateUVA −1.5UVA −2.5UVA −4.9-3.4UVA −1.5▲ toward us 1.0-2.451.552.3Under 51.563% UVAGame →
Fri 7:00 PMPittsburgh @ Virginia TechVT −5.5VT −3.5VT −2.3-3.2PITT +5.5▲ toward us 2.0-1.256.557.8—56% VTGame →
Sat 12:00 PMBoston College @ SMUSMU −21.0SMU −20.5SMU −24.0+3.0SMU −21.0▼ away 0.5+3.556.551.4Under 56.594% SMUGame →
Sat 12:00 PMStanford @ Wake ForestWAKE −12.5WAKE −12.5WAKE −15.1+2.6WAKE −12.5no move+2.654.549.6Under 54.584% WAKEGame →
Sat 7:00 PMArkansas @ Texas A&MTA&M −14.5TA&M −14.0TA&M −17.1+2.6TA&M −14.5▼ away 0.5+3.151.553.3—87% TA&MGame →
Sat 3:30 PMBowling Green @ Miami (OH)M-OH −15.5M-OH −13.5M-OH −17.9+2.4M-OH −15.5▼ away 2.0+4.450.546.5Under 50.588% M-OHGame →
Sat 9:30 PMFresno State @ Washington StateWSU −1.5WSU −2.5WSU −3.9+2.4WSU −1.5▲ toward us 1.0+1.445.547.1—60% WSUGame →
Sat 2:00 PMToledo @ Ball StateTOL −17.5TOL −19.5TOL −19.8-2.3TOL −17.5▲ toward us 2.0-0.351.556.6Over 51.590% TOLGame →
Sat 12:30 PMMichigan State @ WisconsinWIS −10.0WIS −10.5WIS −12.2+2.2WIS −10.0▲ toward us 0.5+1.744.550.9Over 44.579% WISGame →
Sat 6:00 PMOregon State @ Colorado StateORST −3.5ORST −5.5ORST −1.7+1.8CSU +3.5▼ away 2.0+3.859.557.4Under 59.554% ORSTGame →
Sat 7:00 PMUTSA @ RiceUTSA −12.5UTSA −11.5UTSA −10.8+1.7RICE +12.5▲ toward us 1.0+0.752.558.3Over 52.576% UTSAGame →
Sat 3:30 PMAuburn @ TennesseeTENN −7.5TENN −7.0TENN −5.9-1.6AUB +7.5▲ toward us 0.5-1.157.558.5Under 57.565% TENNGame →
Sat 3:30 PMMemphis @ CharlotteMEM −21.5MEM −20.5MEM −20.0+1.5CLT +21.5▲ toward us 1.0+0.554.557.6—91% MEMGame →
Sat 7:30 PMUtah State @ Boise StateBOIS −20.5BOIS −19.5BOIS −19.2-1.3USU +20.5▲ toward us 1.0-0.349.548.9Under 49.590% BOISGame →
Sat 10:30 PMTexas State @ San Diego StateTXST −4.5TXST −4.5TXST −3.2+1.3SDSU +4.5no move+1.360.558.9Under 60.559% TXSTGame →
Sat 7:00 PMBYU @ TCUBYU −5.5BYU −6.5BYU −6.5-1.0BYU −5.5▲ toward us 1.00.052.550.8Under 52.567% BYUGame →
Sat 11:59 PMSan José State @ Hawai'iHAW −5.5HAW −2.5HAW −6.5+1.0HAW −5.5▼ away 3.0+4.052.550.6Under 52.567% HAWGame →
Sat 3:30 PMCalifornia @ UNLVUNLV −1.5UNLV −2.5UNLV −2.3+0.8UNLV −1.5▲ toward us 1.0-0.252.552.9Under 52.556% UNLVGame →
Sat 11:00 PMCincinnati @ ArizonaARIZ −8.5ARIZ −7.0ARIZ −7.8-0.7CIN +8.5▲ toward us 1.5+0.854.555.7—70% ARIZGame →
Sat 12:00 PMNotre Dame @ North CarolinaND −24.5ND −21.0ND −25.0-0.5ND −24.5▼ away 3.5-4.055.544.4Under 55.595% NDGame →
Sat 3:30 PMAkron @ Central MichiganCMU −5.5CMU −6.0CMU −5.0-0.5AKR +5.5▼ away 0.5-1.046.550.9Over 46.563% CMUGame →
Sat 7:30 PMWashington @ USCUSC −10.0USC −9.5USC −10.4+0.4agrees▼ away 0.5+0.957.556.4Under 57.575% USCGame →
Sat 3:30 PMWyoming @ North Dakota StateNDSU −21.0NDSU −18.5NDSU −21.3+0.3agrees▼ away 2.5+2.847.544.9Under 47.592% NDSUGame →
Thu 8:00 PMWestern Kentucky @ New Mexico StateNMSU −1.5NMSU −2.5NMSU −1.3-0.2agrees▼ away 1.0-1.253.559.0Over 53.553% NMSUGame →
Sat 1:00 PMWestern Michigan @ BuffaloWMU −16.5WMU −13.5WMU −16.3+0.2agrees▲ toward us 3.0-2.851.550.9Under 51.586% WMUGame →
Sat 7:00 PMGeorgia Southern @ Coastal CarolinaCCU −1.5GASO −2.5CCU −1.7+0.2agrees▼ away 4.0+4.252.552.4Under 52.554% CCUGame →
Sat 3:30 PMOld Dominion @ Georgia StateODU −1.5GAST −1.5ODU −1.6-0.1agrees▼ away 3.0-3.152.555.1—54% ODUGame →

Highlighted rows: our line is 4+ points off the opener (regular season), the zone where the model has won since 2023. Once the line moves to our number the value is gone, so “Gap now” matters too. Total leans are against the opening total and net of our totals running 2.5 points high this season. Lines update with every site rebuild (daily, more on Saturdays).

Model Track Record

Every FBS-vs-FBS game, graded against the final score. Each model line is what the model said that week, using only games already played

Against the opening line (regular season, 2023 on)

Model vs. opener gapATSCover %O/U (total gap)Hit %
0–2 pts455–39153.8%448–45949.4%
2–4 pts315–30051.2%310–28452.2%
4–7 pts256–20755.3%225–20452.4%
7+ pts69–4560.5%81–6057.4%

Here bigger disagreements do win more often. Totals are graded net of the model's average total gap the season before.

Season4+ pt gap vs. openerCover %
2026 (so far)40–3751.9%
2025123–8858.3%
2024112–9454.4%
202350–3360.2%

Three-plus seasons is a real but small sample (2,075 games; ESPN only keeps opening lines from 2023). Treat it as promising, not proven. The model's settings were tuned on 2021–2025 games, so 2026 is the cleanest test.

Against the closing line (since 2015)

Model vs. line gapATSCover %O/U (total gap)Hit %
0–2 pts1,626–1,57650.8%1,560–1,49051.1%
2–4 pts1,263–1,19151.5%1,277–1,23850.8%
4–7 pts905–94149.0%1,014–94051.9%
7+ pts389–41848.2%418–43748.9%

Bigger gaps have not covered more often. When the model and the market disagree by a touchdown, the market has usually been right.

SeasonATSCover %3+ pt gapsO/U %Miss: model / line
2026 (so far)105–10450.2%51.4%50.9%11.6 / 11.0
2025430–37153.7%54.2%48.7%12.0 / 11.8
2024409–35553.5%53.3%54.0%12.4 / 12.0
2023378–39049.2%48.8%54.6%12.6 / 12.1
2022373–38649.1%46.5%49.7%12.5 / 12.0
2021382–36950.9%47.1%50.1%13.0 / 12.6
2020269–24951.9%56.7%52.2%12.9 / 12.8
2019373–38149.5%48.9%50.1%12.7 / 12.2
2018369–38049.3%47.5%50.1%13.1 / 12.6
2017379–36950.7%46.2%49.1%12.9 / 12.1
2016356–38348.2%46.1%52.0%13.4 / 12.8
2015360–38948.1%44.6%50.6%13.3 / 12.4

The line misses the final margin by less than our model every season. That's the market's edge: it prices in news the ratings can't see.

Team ATS & Over/Under

Every FBS team's record against the closing spread and total. Pushes shown after the dash

138 teams
TeamGamesATS▼Avg coverAs favoriteAs underdogHomeAwayOver / under
UCLA44–0+18.04–00–02–02–03–1
Georgia44–0+10.04–00–03–01–04–0
Northwestern33–0+15.72–01–02–01–03–0
Duke44–0+11.13–01–03–01–02–2
New Mexico44–0+16.53–01–02–02–02–2
Oregon State44–0+13.62–02–02–02–03–1
Temple43–0–1+4.91–02–0–12–0–11–02–2
BYU33–0+3.53–00–02–01–02–1
Utah44–0+11.54–00–03–01–02–2
James Madison44–0+18.43–01–02–02–02–2
Louisiana43–0–1+9.92–0–11–01–0–12–01–3
Mississippi State44–0+14.43–01–02–02–02–2
Georgia State44–0+14.52–02–02–02–02–2
Louisiana Tech33–0+12.21–02–01–02–03–0
Colorado State43–1+8.52–01–12–11–04–0
Delaware43–1-0.22–01–12–01–11–3
Florida43–1+9.63–10–02–11–03–1
Boise State43–1+7.02–11–01–12–03–1
Notre Dame43–1+3.63–10–01–11–02–2
Kentucky43–1+5.22–01–12–11–03–1
Louisville43–1+0.62–11–02–10–03–1
Massachusetts43–1+15.92–11–01–12–01–3
Minnesota43–1+3.22–01–12–11–02–2
Nebraska43–1+8.63–10–02–11–02–2
Miami (OH)43–1-2.52–01–12–01–13–1
Ohio State43–1+1.22–11–02–11–03–1
Oklahoma State43–1+6.51–12–02–01–12–2
Pittsburgh43–1+8.53–10–03–10–01–3
Baylor43–1+1.82–11–02–10–01–3
North Texas43–1+11.01–02–12–01–13–1
Virginia43–1+7.13–10–03–00–02–2
Virginia Tech43–1+5.03–10–02–01–13–1
Washington State43–1+1.01–02–12–01–12–2
Fresno State43–1+6.13–00–12–01–12–2
Georgia Southern43–1+2.81–02–12–01–12–2
Alabama43–1+10.53–10–02–11–04–0
Kennesaw State43–1+2.21–12–01–12–00–4
App State43–1+7.91–12–01–12–02–2
UCF43–1+8.51–12–02–11–02–2
Cincinnati43–1+7.02–11–03–10–03–1
Florida Atlantic43–1+2.82–01–12–01–13–1
Iowa43–1+5.12–11–02–11–01–3
Miami43–1+6.23–10–02–01–13–1
Middle Tennessee43–1+4.61–02–12–01–10–4
Sam Houston43–1+14.11–02–12–01–12–2
UTSA43–1+3.01–12–01–12–02–2
UAB42–1–1+3.40–12–0–11–11–0–11–3
Arizona State32–1+2.82–00–11–00–12–1
Michigan State42–1–1+2.51–0–11–11–1–11–01–3
Toledo42–1–1+8.92–10–0–12–10–0–14–0
Jacksonville State53–2+0.63–00–23–00–23–2
South Alabama42–2+2.91–11–11–11–13–1
San José State42–2+1.40–12–10–22–01–3
Stanford42–2-4.41–01–22–10–13–1
UConn42–2+9.82–00–21–11–12–2
South Florida42–2-0.61–21–01–11–12–2
Iowa State42–2+7.11–11–11–21–02–2
Western Kentucky42–2-8.51–11–11–01–23–1
LSU42–2+9.22–20–02–10–12–2
Boston College42–2-8.01–11–12–10–10–4
Maryland42–2-6.52–00–21–21–03–1
Michigan42–2-4.81–21–02–20–01–3
Wake Forest42–2+4.00–22–01–11–12–2
Rutgers42–2-6.81–11–12–10–13–1
New Mexico State42–2+1.51–01–21–11–12–2
Ohio42–2-1.61–11–11–11–13–1
Tulsa42–2+0.11–11–12–00–20–4
Penn State42–2+1.02–20–02–10–12–2
Clemson42–2-5.02–10–11–11–12–2
Memphis42–20.01–11–11–11–13–1
Vanderbilt42–2-4.21–21–01–21–02–2
Rice42–2-0.51–01–22–00–22–2
Texas A&M42–2-5.82–10–12–10–12–2
Houston42–2+3.41–21–01–11–14–0
Wisconsin42–2+2.61–11–11–11–03–1
West Virginia42–2-1.91–21–01–20–04–0
Coastal Carolina42–2-0.61–01–21–11–12–2
Texas State42–2+1.12–10–12–10–13–1
Utah State42–2+0.11–11–11–11–10–4
Army31–1–1+3.81–1–10–01–10–0–12–1
Illinois42–2-2.61–21–01–21–04–0
Akron42–2-3.01–01–21–11–12–2
Florida International42–2-3.01–11–11–11–11–3
Kansas State42–2+3.92–20–02–10–13–1
Kent State42–2-0.92–00–22–00–23–1
Liberty42–2+1.92–10–11–11–12–2
Charlotte42–2-4.00–12–10–22–01–3
UNLV42–2-6.12–20–00–12–10–4
Nevada42–2+4.80–12–12–10–12–2
North Dakota State42–2+3.82–20–01–11–11–3
Oregon42–2-3.52–20–01–11–14–0
Southern Miss42–2+3.21–01–21–11–12–2
Missouri State42–2+6.11–01–21–11–12–2
TCU42–2-1.82–20–02–00–11–3
Tennessee42–2+1.51–21–01–21–01–3
Western Michigan42–2+3.51–11–11–11–12–2
Sacramento State52–3-6.81–01–32–10–21–4
Eastern Michigan52–3-7.12–10–22–10–21–4
Florida State41–2–1-6.90–21–0–10–2–11–01–3
North Carolina31–2+1.00–11–10–10–11–2
Syracuse31–2+5.71–10–11–10–11–2
Air Force31–2-1.21–10–11–10–12–1
Kansas31–2-4.71–00–21–10–01–2
SMU41–2–1-3.51–1–10–11–10–1–12–2
Auburn41–3-2.41–20–11–20–01–3
Arkansas41–3-6.41–10–21–20–11–3
California41–3-9.90–11–20–31–01–3
Colorado41–3-8.00–11–20–11–22–2
Hawai'i41–3-8.81–10–21–10–21–3
Missouri41–3-5.61–20–10–21–12–2
Ole Miss41–3-6.20–21–11–10–12–2
East Carolina41–3-4.50–21–10–21–11–3
NC State41–3+3.51–10–21–10–23–1
Bowling Green41–3-10.80–11–21–10–22–2
Oklahoma41–3-8.01–20–11–10–21–3
Texas41–3+3.21–30–01–20–11–3
Marshall41–3-13.11–20–10–21–12–2
Arkansas State41–3-0.81–10–21–10–22–2
Ball State41–3-6.01–00–31–00–33–1
Central Michigan41–3-6.80–11–21–10–21–3
UL Monroe41–3-11.50–11–20–21–13–1
Northern Illinois41–3-3.20–01–30–11–22–2
Purdue41–3-5.50–11–21–20–14–0
South Carolina41–3-3.91–20–11–20–13–1
UTEP41–3-3.01–00–31–10–22–2
Texas Tech41–3-10.51–30–01–20–13–1
Troy41–3-2.60–21–10–21–10–4
Tulane41–3-3.80–21–10–21–12–2
Wyoming41–3-7.80–21–11–10–21–3
USC51–4-8.01–30–11–30–14–1
Arizona40–4-5.20–30–10–20–22–2
San Diego State40–4-12.10–20–20–20–22–2
Georgia Tech40–4-7.90–30–10–30–12–2
Indiana40–4-6.80–40–00–40–02–2
Washington40–4-15.50–40–00–40–02–2
Old Dominion40–4-12.60–20–20–30–12–2
Buffalo40–4-11.50–20–20–20–23–1
Navy30–3-9.20–30–00–10–22–1

Avg cover = average points the team beat (+) or missed (−) the spread by. Over / under is overs–unders. Small samples swing a lot: a 4–1 ATS start says little.

Line Calculator

Any two FBS teams, at either site or neutral: our current spread, total and win probability

TDC lineOhio State −13.7
TDC total47.8
Projected scoreOhio State 31, Michigan 17
Win probabilityOhio State 81%

For information and entertainment. Nothing here is a recommendation to bet. If you do, bet only what you can afford to lose. Problem gambling help: 1-800-GAMBLER. Model details: power rankings and each game's tracker.