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Big 12 · 2026

UCF Knights

Head coach Scott Frost · Acrisure Bounce House
4-42-3 in conference
TDC Rank
#57
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
+3.6
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
+0.8
63rd in FBS
Defense
+2.8
47th in FBS
Schedule so far
+2.3
36th toughest
Projected
5.9-6.1
bowl-eligible 64%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

+3.6 now, +1.2 preseason · down 2 spots since preseason
0+5+10FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8Wk 9#57

Final record odds

5.9-6.1 expected · most likely 6-6 (37%)
8%4-828%5-737%6-622%7-58-4

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Keyone Jenkins
QB · SR · 106th in FBS
1181yds
11 TD · 4 INT
Rushing
Duke Watson
RB · 51st in FBS
597yds
92 car · 3 TD
Receiving
Josh Derry
WR · SR · 119th in FBS
428yds
37 rec · 3 TD
Tackles
Tackett Curtis
LB · SR · 221st in FBS
48tkl
4 TFL
Sacks
Isaiah Nixon
EDGE · JR · 229th in FBS
2.5sacks
3 hurries
Interceptions
Demari Henderson
DB · SR · 49th in FBS
2INT
4 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 3vsBethune-Cookman FCSW 73–6 ›+0.3—ESPN+
2Sep 12@38PittsburghL 7–12 ›+6.7—ESPN2
3Sep 19vs111Georgia StateW 44–30 ›-1.5—ESPN+
4Sep 26vs46TCUCONFW 21–13 ›+10.6—FS1
5Oct 3@32HoustonCONFL 17–27 ›+5.5—ESPN2
6Oct 10@35Oklahoma StateCONFL 28–42 ›-1.1—ESPN2
7—Bye
8Oct 24vs21BYUCONFW 39–31 ›+18.6—Fox
9Oct 30vs34BaylorCONFL 9–41 ›-20.4—ESPN
10Nov 7@40KansasCONFKansas −7.7 · o/u 52.4—30%ESPN2
11Nov 14vs53Arizona StateCONFUCF −2.6 · o/u 53.7—57%
12Nov 20vs51Iowa StateCONFUCF −2.5 · o/u 52.7—57%FS1
13Nov 28@63ColoradoCONFColorado −2.2 · o/u 47.0—44%

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.065101st+0.06355th
Success rate41.1%84th41.1%70th
Explosiveness1.171106th1.17535th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate41.6%84th41.2%67th
Rushing success rate45.0%54th38.3%33rd
Passing success rate38.7%101st44.0%108th
Explosive run rate13.9%64th6.7%3rd
Explosive pass rate8.1%114th12.8%128th
Line yards / carry2.94101st2.6313th
Opportunity rate37.3%93rd30.0%8th
Stuff rate17.7%83rd17.4%78th
Sack rate5.6%79th5.4%74th
3rd-down conversion38.0%95th42.9%105th
Red-zone TD rate60.7%81st57.7%62nd
Havoc rate13.3%64th14.1%64th
Box score · season totals
Points / game29.857th25.374th
Yards / game359.189th375.986th
Yards / play5.3995th5.2770th
Pass yards / game208.093rd249.6117th
Yards / pass att.6.70103rd7.80110th
Completion %65.5%41st59.4%49th
Rush yards / game151.176th126.345th
Yards / carry4.5056th3.3828th
3rd-down conv. %35.6%103rd40.3%93rd
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)1.1248th1.5032nd
Sacks / game (allowed · made)2.2594th2.0074th
Penalty yards / game48.137th61.839th

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
7.1
124th of 138
YAC per catch
5.3
76th of 138
Deep shots (20+)
11%
114th of 138
Shotgun
96%
68th of 138
No-huddle
73%
56th of 138
QB pressured
11%
90th of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
15%
57th of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
5.0
90th of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws240 throws charted

65% comp7.1 avg. depth5.3 YAC/catch11% 20+ air yds13–5 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 18 throws (8%), 17 caught (94%), 128 yds, 7.1 per throw1894% · 128yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 28 throws (12%), 21 caught (75%), 136 yds, 4.9 per throw2875% · 136yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 16 throws (7%), 10 caught (63%), 101 yds, 6.3 per throw1663% · 101yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 8 caught (80%), 124 yds, 12.4 per throw1080% · 124yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 3 throws (1%), 1 caught (33%), 15 yds, 5.0 per throw333% · 15yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 3 caught (60%), 81 yds, 16.2 per throw560% · 81yLeft, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw50% · 0yMiddle, Behind air yards: 10 throws (4%), 9 caught (90%), 51 yds, 5.1 per throw1090% · 51yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 15 throws (6%), 8 caught (53%), 41 yds, 2.7 per throw1553% · 41yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 13 throws (5%), 8 caught (62%), 62 yds, 4.8 per throw1362% · 62yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 11 throws (5%), 8 caught (73%), 114 yds, 10.4 per throw1173% · 114yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 6 caught (60%), 159 yds, 15.9 per throw1060% · 159yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 3 throws (1%), 2 caught (67%), 48 yds, 16.0 per throw367% · 48yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw40% · 0yRight, Behind air yards: 25 throws (10%), 19 caught (76%), 71 yds, 2.8 per throw2576% · 71yRight, 0–4 air yards: 29 throws (12%), 21 caught (72%), 141 yds, 4.9 per throw2972% · 141yRight, 5–9 air yards: 18 throws (8%), 11 caught (61%), 109 yds, 6.1 per throw1861% · 109yRight, 10–14 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 3 caught (75%), 92 yds, 23.0 per throw475% · 92yRight, 15–19 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 1 caught (20%), 15 yds, 3.0 per throw520% · 15yRight, 20–29 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 3 caught (50%), 86 yds, 14.3 per throw650% · 86yRight, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 39 yds, 19.5 per throw250% · 39y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on241 throws charted

59% comp9.2 avg. depth5.0 YAC/catch12% 20+ air yds11–7 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 17 throws (7%), 12 caught (71%), 67 yds, 3.9 per throw1771% · 67yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 17 throws (7%), 8 caught (47%), 38 yds, 2.2 per throw1747% · 38yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 17 throws (7%), 8 caught (47%), 69 yds, 4.1 per throw1747% · 69yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 5 caught (50%), 71 yds, 7.1 per throw1050% · 71yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 5 caught (50%), 124 yds, 12.4 per throw1050% · 124yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 4 caught (57%), 118 yds, 16.9 per throw757% · 118yLeft, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (1%), 3 caught (100%), 110 yds, 36.7 per throw3100% · 110yMiddle, Behind air yards: noneMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 23 throws (10%), 14 caught (61%), 104 yds, 4.5 per throw2361% · 104yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 19 throws (8%), 18 caught (95%), 176 yds, 9.3 per throw1995% · 176yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 12 throws (5%), 6 caught (50%), 122 yds, 10.2 per throw1250% · 122yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 14 throws (6%), 10 caught (71%), 232 yds, 16.6 per throw1471% · 232yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 6 throws (2%), 3 caught (50%), 128 yds, 21.3 per throw650% · 128yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw20% · 0yRight, Behind air yards: 9 throws (4%), 8 caught (89%), 35 yds, 3.9 per throw989% · 35yRight, 0–4 air yards: 23 throws (10%), 14 caught (61%), 127 yds, 5.5 per throw2361% · 127yRight, 5–9 air yards: 22 throws (9%), 13 caught (59%), 109 yds, 5.0 per throw2259% · 109yRight, 10–14 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 6 caught (60%), 77 yds, 7.7 per throw1060% · 77yRight, 15–19 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 5 caught (50%), 96 yds, 9.6 per throw1050% · 96yRight, 20–29 air yards: 8 throws (3%), 3 caught (38%), 102 yds, 12.8 per throw838% · 102yRight, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 36 yds, 18.0 per throw250% · 36y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction242 carries

Left
24%
7.1 YPC · 51% succ.
Middle
57%
4.9 YPC · 39% succ.
Right
19%
5.5 YPC · 55% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced271 carries

Left
22%
5.2 YPC · 46% succ.
Middle
59%
3.0 YPC · 34% succ.
Right
19%
5.8 YPC · 47% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Scott Frost

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
8Rocco MarriottQBFR6' 4"220Kansas City, MO
10Kaleb AnnettQBSO6' 3"200Newport Beach, CA
12Keyone JenkinsQBSR6' 0"200Opa Locka, FL
14Alonza Barnett IIIQBSR5' 11"210Whitsett, NC
16Dante CarrQBFR6' 4"220Minersville, PA
4Taevion SwintRBFR5' 10"185Kissimmee, FL
11Landen ChambersRBJR5' 11"215Fort Worth, TX
20Kaj BakerRBFR5' 8"160Miami, FL
24Arthur Lewis IVRBFR5' 10"180Palatka, FL
35Agyeman AddaeRBSO5' 10"190Miami, FL
42Chance NixonRBFR5' 9"179Oviedo, FL
2Tyren HornesWRFR6' 0"175Bradenton, FL
3Jonathan BibbsWRSO6' 1"180Birmingham, AL
5Josh DerryWRSR5' 9"182Baltimore, MD
6Ric'Darious FarmerWRSO6' 0"160Melbourne, FL
9Waden CharlesWRSO6' 2"195Boynton Beach, FL
13Caleb RollersonWRSO6' 2"210Ocala, FL
23Jordan NunuhaWRFR6' 3"195Nanakuli, HI
39Andrea ParisiWRSO5' 11"195Bergamo, Italy
80Elijah HardyWRFR6' 0"180Miami, FL
81Zack PalmerWRFR6' 0"190Orlando, FL
82Jordyn BridgewaterWRSO6' 0"165New Orleans, LA
85Carson HinshawWRSO5' 10"165Lake Mary, FL
86Chase HinshawWRFR6' 2"181Lake Mary, FL
18Caden PieningTEFR6' 5"245Cincinnati, OH
47Sam PowellTEFR6' 3"205Naples, FL
83Dylan BurkTESO6' 7"255Melbourne, FL
87Brooks HallTEFR6' 5"225Platte City, MO
88Grayson BrousseauTESO6' 5"245Lehi, UT
53LaParka LangstonOLJR6' 7"285Atlanta, GA
55Jacob MaiavaOLFR6' 2"280Kahuku, HI
57Camp LottOLFR6' 6"290Mccomb, MS
58Connor MeadowsOLSR6' 4"300Trenton, TN
61Owen SpellOLSR6' 8"305Jesup, GA
67Noah SenkaOLSO6' 2"295Seminole, FL
68Ethan HigginsOLJR6' 6"270Brooksville, FL
70RaiShaun McHaneyOLFR6' 8"270Indianapolis, IN
72Dominick CampbellOLSR6' 9"310Scarborough, ME
73Henry TabansiOLJR6' 5"306Staten Island, NY
74Matthew PrigmoreOLJR6' 3"315Weston, FL
75Tyler GibsonOLSR6' 5"308Atlanta, GA
76Justin RoyesOLJR6' 5"300Suffolk, VA
77Kasiyah CharltonOLFR6' 7"315Brunswick, GA
78Preston CushmanOLSR6' 5"305St. Petersburg, FL
79Daniel MarcellinusOLFR6' 11"275Abia, Nigeria
0Horace LockettDTSR6' 6"355Atlanta, GA
42Artavius JonesDTSO6' 3"325Blountstown, FL
55Noah MercerDTFR6' 5"290Key West, FL
90Mujahid JeffersonDTFR6' 3"280Orlando, FL
91Donteye DrewDTSR6' 2"240Tampa, FL
92Jeffson LafontantDTJR6' 3"295North Miami Beach, FL
93Brad Gurley Jr.DTSR6' 2"300Bowling Green, KY
95RJ Jackson Jr.DTSR6' 3"310Choctaw, OK
97Josh SchellDTSR6' 4"300Mount Pleasant, MI
99Thomas CollinsDTJR6' 1"295Gothenburg, Sweden
15Preston HallLBFR6' 3"220Missouri City, TX
19Rashad HenryLBJR6' 2"220Miami, FL
20Lewis CarterLBSR6' 0"225Tampa, FL
23Jayden BurnettLBFR6' 2"210Sarasota, FL
24Tackett CurtisLBSR6' 2"230Many, LA
32Matthew OcchipintiLBFR6' 3"235Saddle Brook, NJ
33Phil PicciottiLBJR6' 3"230Perkasie, PA
34Jahleel CulbreathLBSR6' 4"222Virginia Beach, VA
36Dylan BennettLBFR5' 11"210West Palm Beach, FL
38Jayden JenningsLBSR6' 4"235Salem, VA
43Cole KozlowskiLBSR6' 2"230Spring Lake, NJ
47Arthur KingdomLBJR6' 4"230Leicestershire, England
1Jayden BellamyDBSR6' 1"190Freehold, NJ
4Braeden MarshallDBSR5' 10"200Lake Mary, FL
5DJ BellDBSR6' 2"185Pensacola, FL
7Antione JacksonDBSR6' 1"185Lauderhill, FL
8Demari HendersonDBSR6' 0"185Sanford, FL
14Kahmel JohnsonDBSO6' 2"200Jacksonville, FL
16Antonio Branch Jr.DBFR6' 3"175Miami, FL
17Jailen DuffieDBJR5' 11"175Waukegan, IL
18Caleb FlaggDBSR5' 10"200Houston, TX
21Ty BartrumDBSR6' 1"205Pomeroy, OH
22Amarion QueenDBFR6' 2"185Stuart, FL
25Rukeem StroudDBFR5' 11"165Tampa, FL
26Elijah KeysDBFR6' 2"180Jacksonville, FL
27Nicholas AntoineDBSR6' 4"205Daytona Beach, FL
28Matt IrwinDBJR5' 11"180Meridian, ID
29Tyce PorcherDBFR6' 1"190West Palm Beach, FL
30Otis HardyDBFR6' 0"180Orlando, FL
49Donnell Johnson IIIDBJR180Orlando, FL
31Noah McGoughPKFR5' 11"175Dallas, TX
97Mason DenaburgPKFR6' 4"225Merritt Island, FL
15Will StonePSR6' 2"195Austin, TX
49Atticus BertramsPSR6' 4"235Sydney, Australia
37Rocklyn KelleyLSFR6' 1"225Denton, TX
44Kyle HicksLSSO6' 3"235Nashville, TN
6Isaiah NixonEDGEJR6' 4"245St. Petersburg, FL
10Sincere EdwardsEDGEJR6' 3"250Orlando, FL
11Ken TalleyEDGESR6' 3"260Philadelphia, PA
12Aymeric KoumbaEDGEJR6' 5"245Bordeaux, France
41Bruno DallEDGEJR6' 7"260Hamburg, Germany
45Quentin HatchEDGESR6' 1"225Orlando, FL
56Patrick RyanEDGEFR6' 4"220Lake Mary, FL
94LA Jessie HarroldEDGEFR6' 5"260Tampa, FL
98Alhassan IddrissuEDGEFR6' 6"250Kumasi, Ghana

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2017 (+13.8, #11) · worst: 2015 (-16.8, #124)
-100+10FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#76
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far4-42-3#57+3.6+0.8+2.8
20255-72-7#76-1.4-3.2+1.8
20244-82-7#59+1.2+1.9-0.7
20236-73-6#49+3.0+1.6+1.4
20229-56-2#35+4.9+2.8+2.1
20219-45-3#55+2.7+1.9+0.8
20206-45-3#17+9.0+12.5-3.5
201910-36-2#15+11.8+10.5+1.3
201812-18-0#8+13.1+9.6+3.5
201713-08-0#11+13.8+11.9+1.8
20166-74-4#70-1.3-2.6+1.3
20150-120-8#124-16.8-11.6-5.3
20149-47-1#50+2.8-0.8+3.6

UCF's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Nov 3, 12:25 PM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →