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Big 12 · 2026

TCU Horned Frogs

Head coach Sonny Dykes · Amon G. Carter Stadium
4-42-3 in conference
TDC Rank
#46
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
+6.3
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
-2.6
86th in FBS
Defense
+9.0
16th in FBS
Schedule so far
+0.1
55th toughest
Projected
5.2-6.8
bowl-eligible 32%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

+6.3 now, +4.4 preseason · down 1 spot since preseason
0+5+10FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8Wk 9#46

Final record odds

5.2-6.8 expected · most likely 5-7 (45%)
23%4-845%5-725%6-66%7-58-4

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Jaden Craig
QB · SR · 11th in FBS
2207yds
11 TD · 6 INT
Rushing
Jeremy Payne
RB · JR · 117th in FBS
429yds
88 car · 2 TD
Receiving
Kari Ashley
TE · SR · 50th in FBS
560yds
38 rec · 4 TD
Tackles
Jamel Johnson
S · SR · 199th in FBS
50tkl
4 TFL
Sacks
Koron Hayward
LB · SR · 26th in FBS
5.5sacks
2 hurries
Interceptions
Vernon Glover Jr.
CB · SR · 145th in FBS
1INT
3 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Aug 29vs50North CarolinaNEUTRALL 10–15 ›0.0—ESPN
2Sep 12vsGrambling FCSW 63–7 ›-0.9—ESPN+
3Sep 19vs105Arkansas StateW 31–7 ›+9.6—ESPNU
4Sep 26@57UCFCONFL 13–21 ›-0.7—FS1
5Oct 3vs21BYUCONFL 10–17 ›+3.6—ESPN
6—Bye
7Oct 17@34BaylorCONFW 17–6 ›+24.9—FS1
8Oct 24vs69West VirginiaCONFL 20–24 ›-7.3—ESPN2
9Oct 31vs40KansasCONFW 22–16 ›+9.9—FS1
10Nov 6@22ArizonaCONFArizona −11.4 · o/u 40.5—22%ESPN
11Nov 14vs44Kansas StateCONFTCU −3.0 · o/u 44.0—58%
12Nov 21vs8UtahCONFUtah −12.6 · o/u 45.2—20%
13Nov 26@12Texas TechCONFTexas Tech −15.1 · o/u 45.1—16%ESPN

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.08096th-0.0658th
Success rate41.0%88th34.2%10th
Explosiveness1.29247th1.11913th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate41.5%86th34.4%11th
Rushing success rate39.6%107th33.3%12th
Passing success rate43.0%56th35.4%19th
Explosive run rate10.2%120th10.3%26th
Explosive pass rate12.3%34th8.1%36th
Line yards / carry2.81118th2.7330th
Opportunity rate35.1%114th30.9%12th
Stuff rate18.2%93rd17.7%74th
Sack rate6.8%102nd6.3%55th
3rd-down conversion43.1%51st33.3%20th
Red-zone TD rate56.0%94th45.0%17th
Havoc rate12.3%46th13.5%75th
Box score · season totals
Points / game23.3100th14.18th
Yards / game390.564th287.614th
Yards / play5.6269th4.4017th
Pass yards / game275.922nd174.615th
Yards / pass att.8.2033rd6.2427th
Completion %64.8%47th53.6%4th
Rush yards / game114.6119th113.029th
Yards / carry3.50121st3.2221st
3rd-down conv. %42.7%47th31.6%23rd
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)1.62113th1.3845th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)2.62112th2.2552nd
Penalty yards / game67.6109th43.3124th

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
9.6
36th of 138
YAC per catch
4.6
115th of 138
Deep shots (20+)
15%
58th of 138
Shotgun
97%
51st of 138
No-huddle
92%
13th of 138
QB pressured
13%
69th of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
14%
79th of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
5.4
54th of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws260 throws charted

64% comp9.6 avg. depth4.6 YAC/catch15% 20+ air yds11–6 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 28 throws (11%), 19 caught (68%), 93 yds, 3.3 per throw2868% · 93yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 21 throws (8%), 15 caught (71%), 94 yds, 4.5 per throw2171% · 94yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 17 throws (7%), 14 caught (82%), 152 yds, 8.9 per throw1782% · 152yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 14 throws (5%), 5 caught (36%), 63 yds, 4.5 per throw1436% · 63yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 2 caught (40%), 38 yds, 7.6 per throw540% · 38yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 6 throws (2%), 3 caught (50%), 89 yds, 14.8 per throw650% · 89yLeft, 30+ air yards: 11 throws (4%), 7 caught (64%), 331 yds, 30.1 per throw1164% · 331yMiddle, Behind air yards: 4 throws (2%), 3 caught (75%), 27 yds, 6.8 per throw475% · 27yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 8 throws (3%), 7 caught (88%), 46 yds, 5.8 per throw888% · 46yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 5 caught (71%), 49 yds, 7.0 per throw771% · 49yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 6 throws (2%), 3 caught (50%), 57 yds, 9.5 per throw650% · 57yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 12 throws (5%), 10 caught (83%), 213 yds, 17.8 per throw1283% · 213yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 5 caught (71%), 172 yds, 24.6 per throw771% · 172yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (1%), 1 caught (33%), 57 yds, 19.0 per throw333% · 57yRight, Behind air yards: 20 throws (8%), 15 caught (75%), 56 yds, 2.8 per throw2075% · 56yRight, 0–4 air yards: 27 throws (10%), 20 caught (74%), 129 yds, 4.8 per throw2774% · 129yRight, 5–9 air yards: 27 throws (10%), 17 caught (63%), 160 yds, 5.9 per throw2763% · 160yRight, 10–14 air yards: 19 throws (7%), 13 caught (68%), 171 yds, 9.0 per throw1968% · 171yRight, 15–19 air yards: 8 throws (3%), 6 caught (75%), 118 yds, 14.8 per throw875% · 118yRight, 20–29 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw70% · 0yRight, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (1%), 1 caught (33%), 42 yds, 14.0 per throw333% · 42y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on217 throws charted

53% comp10.4 avg. depth5.4 YAC/catch18% 20+ air yds4–5 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 17 throws (8%), 11 caught (65%), 47 yds, 2.8 per throw1765% · 47yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 12 throws (6%), 10 caught (83%), 56 yds, 4.7 per throw1283% · 56yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 12 throws (6%), 9 caught (75%), 103 yds, 8.6 per throw1275% · 103yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 11 throws (5%), 4 caught (36%), 52 yds, 4.7 per throw1136% · 52yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 10 throws (5%), 4 caught (40%), 73 yds, 7.3 per throw1040% · 73yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw60% · 0yLeft, 30+ air yards: 7 throws (3%), 2 caught (29%), 66 yds, 9.4 per throw729% · 66yMiddle, Behind air yards: 1 throws (0%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 11 throws (5%), 8 caught (73%), 27 yds, 2.5 per throw1173% · 27yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 20 throws (9%), 12 caught (60%), 172 yds, 8.6 per throw2060% · 172yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 8 throws (4%), 5 caught (63%), 78 yds, 9.8 per throw863% · 78yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 3 throws (1%), 3 caught (100%), 55 yds, 18.3 per throw3100% · 55yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 3 throws (1%), 2 caught (67%), 81 yds, 27.0 per throw367% · 81yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 6 throws (3%), 1 caught (17%), 44 yds, 7.3 per throw617% · 44yRight, Behind air yards: 17 throws (8%), 12 caught (71%), 73 yds, 4.3 per throw1771% · 73yRight, 0–4 air yards: 20 throws (9%), 16 caught (80%), 147 yds, 7.3 per throw2080% · 147yRight, 5–9 air yards: 22 throws (10%), 11 caught (50%), 109 yds, 5.0 per throw2250% · 109yRight, 10–14 air yards: 11 throws (5%), 3 caught (27%), 43 yds, 3.9 per throw1127% · 43yRight, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 2 caught (29%), 41 yds, 5.9 per throw729% · 41yRight, 20–29 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 1 caught (14%), 62 yds, 8.9 per throw714% · 62yRight, 30+ air yards: 6 throws (3%), 1 caught (17%), 50 yds, 8.3 per throw617% · 50y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction234 carries

Left
27%
4.5 YPC · 50% succ.
Middle
38%
4.2 YPC · 40% succ.
Right
34%
4.9 YPC · 48% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced253 carries

Left
26%
4.6 YPC · 45% succ.
Middle
52%
3.3 YPC · 30% succ.
Right
21%
4.7 YPC · 43% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Sonny Dykes

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
1Jaden CraigQBSR6' 3"225Montclair, NJ
6Jayden MaplesQBFR6' 1"200Frisco, TX
9Jack DaultonQBFR6' 2"195The Woodlands, TX
11Adam SchobelQBSO6' 5"210Columbus, TX
12David PotterQBSO6' 4"220Texarkana, TX
2Jon DenmanRBSO5' 10"215Palestine, TX
20G'Ivori GrahamRBFR5' 9"190San Antonio, TX
23Amante MartinRBFR5' 11"205Port Arthur, TX
24Joe PitchfordRBJR6' 2"210Liberty Hill, TX
26Jeremy PayneRBJR5' 10"180Missouri City, TX
29Joseph HagmanRBSR6' 0"215Westlake, TX
31Jacob MartinezRBSO5' 8"195Prosper, TX
0Dozie EzukanmaWRJR6' 3"190Keller, TX
3Major EverhartWRSR5' 11"180Amarillo, TX
6Jeremy ScottWRJR6' 3"205Jackson, MS
7Jordan DwyerWRSR6' 0"190Puyallup, WA
13James ScottWRFR6' 5"230Houston, TX
14Khamill PruittWRFR6' 1"180Arlington, TX
15Terry SheltonWRSO6' 4"205Fort Worth, TX
17Dane JonesWRSO6' 0"190Missouri City, TX
18Ed SmallWRSO6' 0"205Austin, TX
22Fletcher FierroWRJR6' 1"195Heath, TX
80Jacobe HayesWRSO5' 10"175Dallas, TX
83Keagan CunninghamWRSR6' 2"180Denton, TX
84Cooper ReidWRFR6' 4"195Dripping Springs, TX
86Sutton LeeWRSR5' 10"175Denton, TX
10Mason PetersonTESO6' 4"245Dickinson, TX
12Lafayette KaiuwayTESR6' 6"260Arlington, TX
81Kari AshleyTESR6' 4"225Marietta, GA
88Ka'Morreun PimptonTESR6' 6"250Fort Worth, TX
89Braden BachTEFR6' 5"240Argyle, TX
51Devan RobisonOLFR6' 3"305Houston, TX
55Samir CamachoOLJR6' 4"295Houston, TX
58Noah McKinneyOLSR6' 4"325Annapolis, MD
59Jaheim BuchanonOLSR6' 4"300Fort Myers, FL
60Cade BennettOLSR6' 4"310Scottsdale, AZ
61Dylan KinneyOLSR6' 3"315Richmond, TX
62Jordan BurnettOLFR6' 4"325Missouri City, TX
64Jacob AhumadaOLSR6' 1"315Gilroy, CA
65Logan SchramOLSO6' 6"325Boerne, TX
66Wesley HarveyOLJR6' 8"305Muskogee, OK
69Gannon GaubertOLSR6' 1"315Dallas, TX
70Ryan HughesOLJR6' 6"320The Woodlands, TX
71Creece BristerOLSO6' 5"315Stephenville, TX
72Jackson JonesOLSO6' 7"310Franklinton, LA
73Kilian RegisteOLSO6' 6"300Keller, TX
74Vincent Johnson Jr.OLFR6' 5"330Sulphur Springs, TX
77Cooper PowersOLSR6' 5"310Danville, CA
34Perry Cole Jr.DTJR6' 3"310Palestine, TX
35Tristan JohnsonDTJR6' 3"295Hurst, TX
52Blake RobinettDTSO6' 4"280Fort Worth, TX
90Kelten MickellDTSR6' 2"295Petal, MS
91Floyd GuidryDTSO6' 2"285Spring, TX
92Ansel Din-MbuhDTSR6' 3"300Aledo, TX
95Markis DealDTSR6' 5"320El Paso, TX
96Maddox FlyntDTFR6' 2"285Austin, TX
0Zach ChapmanLBSR6' 5"265Missouri City, TX
3Max CarrollLBSR6' 3"230Memphis, TN
11Michael ShortLBSR6' 3"235Charlotte, NC
14John SchobelLBSO6' 5"245Columbus, TX
16Koron HaywardLBSR6' 5"245Jacksonville, FL
19Jesse FordLBFR6' 5"255Arlington, TX
23Keylan AbramsLBSO6' 2"215Desoto, TX
31Noriel DominguezLBFR6' 2"240Miami, FL
32Dillon ArkansasLBSO6' 1"210Denton, TX
36Cheta OfiliLBJR6' 4"245Rowlett, TX
37Hudson HooperLBSR6' 2"235Cypress, TX
38Zion JunkLBSO6' 0"210Halawa, HI
40Oliver GunnLBFR6' 1"235La Grange, TX
41Caleb CortezLBSR6' 0"225Celina, TX
44Sam HaleyLBSO6' 3"230Nashville, TN
46Rhett SteppeLBJR6' 2"230Austin, TX
49Anders CornLBSO6' 2"230Dallas, TX
94Jared MartinLBSO6' 3"240El Centro, CA
97Paul OyewaleLBSR6' 4"265Houston, TX
98Carter BuckLBFR6' 6"255Austin, TX
1Vernon Glover Jr.CBSR6' 1"195Dickinson, TX
4Gil Jackson Jr.CBSO6' 3"195Richmond, TX
12Kalen CarrollCBSR6' 1"185Indianapolis, IN
16Brock KingCBFR5' 11"180Beaumont, TX
17Devondre McGeeCBJR6' 2"190Hearne, TX
21Teon ParksCBSR6' 1"180Detroit, MI
26Deon MaysCBSO6' 1"185Arlington, TX
30Max RankinCBSO5' 10"190La Mirada, CA
2Jamel JohnsonSSR6' 1"205Arlington, TX
6Kylin JacksonSSR6' 3"200Clinton, LA
7Julius SimmsSSO6' 2"205Whitehouse, TX
15Devyn HidrogoSJR6' 0"205Franklin, TX
18Kaden McFaddenSJR5' 11"200Texarkana, TX
22Jordan LesterSSR6' 2"190Mesquite, TX
24Joseph AlbrightSSO5' 11"180Houston, TX
29Jason BradfordSFR6' 2"200Temple, TX
39Jack PitchfordSFR5' 11"185Liberty Hill, TX
42Sebastian PetersonSJR6' 0"185Anaheim, CA
34Kyle LemmermannPKJR6' 2"190Southlake, TX
41Sam BisesiPKJR6' 1"185New Canaan, CT
99Nate McCashlandPKSR5' 10"175Lincoln, NE
48John Hoyet ChancePJR6' 1"205Shreveport, LA
97Easton BlackPSR6' 3"200Peoria, AZ
54Aaron BowersLSSR6' 3"215Hurst, TX

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2014 (+16.5, #4) · worst: 2021 (-2.8, #83)
0+10FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#34
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far4-42-3#46+6.3-2.6+9.0
20259-45-4#34+5.8+4.7+1.1
20249-46-3#34+5.3+4.6+0.8
20235-73-6#30+5.5+5.0+0.5
202213-29-0#10+10.9+10.1+0.8
20215-73-6#83-2.8+1.5-4.4
20206-45-4#31+5.5+1.4+4.1
20195-73-6#39+3.8+0.9+2.9
20187-64-5#51+2.5-4.7+7.2
201711-37-2#13+11.8+2.3+9.5
20166-74-5#54+2.2+1.3+0.9
201511-27-2#15+10.7+8.4+2.4
201412-18-1#4+16.5+9.8+6.7

TCU's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Nov 3, 12:25 PM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →