The TDC Rating after every week of the season
Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result / TDC line | Game score | Win chance | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 1 | @ 97North Carolina | W 48–14 | +24.4 | — | ESPN |
| 2 | — | Bye | ||||
| 3 | Sep 13 | vs Abilene Christian FCS | W 42–21 | -3.8 | — | ESPN+ |
| 4 | Sep 20 | vs 20SMU | W 35–24 | +17.9 | — | ESPN2 |
| 5 | Sep 26 | @ 45Arizona StateCONF | L 24–27 | +3.7 | — | FOX |
| 6 | Oct 4 | vs 86ColoradoCONF | W 35–21 | +8.0 | — | FOX |
| 7 | Oct 11 | @ 47Kansas StateCONF | L 28–41 | -6.6 | — | FOX |
| 8 | Oct 18 | vs 70BaylorCONF | W 42–36 | +3.1 | — | ESPN |
| 9 | Oct 25 | @ 87West VirginiaCONF | W 23–17 | +5.3 | — | ESPN+ |
| 10 | — | Bye | ||||
| 11 | Nov 8 | vs 35Iowa StateCONF | L 17–20 | -0.2 | — | FOX |
| 12 | Nov 15 | @ 12BYUCONF | L 13–44 | -11.7 | — | ESPN |
| 13 | Nov 22 | @ 52HoustonCONF | W 17–14 | +8.7 | — | FOX |
| 14 | Nov 29 | vs 58CincinnatiCONF | W 45–23 | +21.2 | — | FOX |
| Bowls | Dec 30 | vs 13USCNEUTRAL | W 30–27 | +14.8 | — | ESPN |
Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted
| Stat | Offense | FBS rank | Defense (allowed) | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play) | ||||
| Success rate | 44.7% | 49th | 40.3% | 43rd |
| Rushing success rate | 42.9% | 89th | 38.4% | 15th |
| Passing success rate | 46.2% | 26th | 42.1% | 76th |
| Explosive run rate | 12.7% | 94th | 11.7% | 33rd |
| Explosive pass rate | 10.7% | 54th | 10.5% | 86th |
| Line yards / carry | 2.78 | 122nd | 2.88 | 36th |
| Opportunity rate | 35.4% | 110th | 34.4% | 26th |
| Stuff rate | 20.6% | 120th | 16.5% | 80th |
| Sack rate | 3.9% | 31st | 5.4% | 76th |
| 3rd-down conversion | 46.9% | 25th | 41.3% | 71st |
| Red-zone TD rate | 59.6% | 63rd | 55.3% | 55th |
| Havoc rate | 11.4% | 71st | 11.9% | 66th |
| Box score · season totals | ||||
| Points / game | 30.2 | 57th | 25.3 | 63rd |
| Yards / game | 421.5 | 27th | 378.7 | 73rd |
| Yards / play | 5.97 | 32nd | 5.39 | 66th |
| Pass yards / game | 290.1 | 9th | 234.5 | 116th |
| Yards / pass att. | 8.20 | 27th | 7.51 | 94th |
| Completion % | 66.5% | 23rd | 61.4% | 63rd |
| Rush yards / game | 131.4 | 100th | 133.1 | 43rd |
| Yards / carry | 3.92 | 98th | 3.71 | 36th |
| 3rd-down conv. % | 47.4% | 14th | — | — |
| Turnovers / game (lost · forced) | 1.54 | 101st | — | — |
| Sacks / game (allowed · made) | 1.69 | 53rd | 1.77 | 93rd |
| Penalty yards / game | 62.0 | 109th | — | — |
63 players who recorded a stat in 2025 (from box scores)
Final ratings for 2025, built with the same model as the current season. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. All 2025 power rankings →