The TDC Rating after every week of the season
Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result / TDC line | Game score | Win chance | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | vs 40Auburn | L 24–38 | -11.8 | — | FOX |
| 2 | Sep 6 | @ 20SMU | W 48–45 | +15.5 | — | CW |
| 3 | Sep 13 | vs Samford FCS | W 42–7 | +3.0 | — | ESPN+ |
| 4 | Sep 20 | vs 45Arizona StateCONF | L 24–27 | -1.9 | — | FOX |
| 5 | Sep 27 | @ 124Oklahoma StateCONF | W 45–27 | +9.2 | — | ESPN2 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | vs 47Kansas StateCONF | W 35–34 | +1.8 | — | ESPN+ |
| 7 | — | Bye | ||||
| 8 | Oct 18 | @ 34TCUCONF | L 36–42 | +2.6 | — | ESPN |
| 9 | Oct 25 | @ 58CincinnatiCONF | L 20–41 | -16.2 | — | ESPN2 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | vs 76UCFCONF | W 30–3 | +20.9 | — | ESPNU |
| 11 | — | Bye | ||||
| 12 | Nov 15 | vs 7UtahCONF | L 28–55 | -13.1 | — | ESPN2 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | @ 29ArizonaCONF | L 17–41 | -14.0 | — | TNT |
| 14 | Nov 29 | vs 52HoustonCONF | L 24–31 | -6.9 | — | TNT |
Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted
| Stat | Offense | FBS rank | Defense (allowed) | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play) | ||||
| Success rate | 45.1% | 46th | 45.4% | 108th |
| Rushing success rate | 47.2% | 37th | 46.5% | 107th |
| Passing success rate | 43.6% | 43rd | 44.0% | 106th |
| Explosive run rate | 11.4% | 119th | 13.2% | 59th |
| Explosive pass rate | 10.0% | 69th | 7.7% | 18th |
| Line yards / carry | 3.05 | 71st | 3.21 | 105th |
| Opportunity rate | 37.3% | 82nd | 38.5% | 79th |
| Stuff rate | 16.0% | 50th | 13.7% | 121st |
| Sack rate | 3.8% | 27th | 2.9% | 131st |
| 3rd-down conversion | 39.9% | 82nd | 42.2% | 86th |
| Red-zone TD rate | 53.2% | 93rd | 58.1% | 71st |
| Havoc rate | 10.8% | 52nd | 9.5% | 120th |
| Box score · season totals | ||||
| Points / game | 31.1 | 48th | 41.4 | 136th |
| Yards / game | 451.1 | 18th | 392.1 | 88th |
| Yards / play | 5.74 | 45th | 5.61 | 89th |
| Pass yards / game | 309.6 | 4th | 189.3 | 40th |
| Yards / pass att. | 7.27 | 64th | 6.80 | 52nd |
| Completion % | 60.5% | 87th | 62.2% | 73rd |
| Rush yards / game | 141.5 | 83rd | 197.2 | 122nd |
| Yards / carry | 4.14 | 85th | 4.91 | 118th |
| 3rd-down conv. % | 37.8% | 89th | — | — |
| Turnovers / game (lost · forced) | 2.00 | 131st | — | — |
| Sacks / game (allowed · made) | 1.83 | 63rd | 1.00 | 132nd |
| Penalty yards / game | 61.0 | 103rd | — | — |
64 players who recorded a stat in 2025 (from box scores)
Final ratings for 2025, built with the same model as the current season. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. All 2025 power rankings →