The TDC Rating after every week of the season
Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result / TDC line | Game score | Win chance | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 28 | vs 61NebraskaNEUTRAL | L 17–20 | -1.4 | — | ESPN |
| 2 | Sep 6 | vs 113Bowling Green | W 34–20 | +2.5 | — | ESPN+ |
| 3 | Sep 13 | vs Northwestern State FCS | W 70–0 | +15.3 | — | ESPN+ |
| 4 | — | Bye | ||||
| 5 | Sep 27 | @ 60KansasCONF | W 37–34 | +7.4 | — | TNT |
| 6 | Oct 4 | vs 35Iowa StateCONF | W 38–30 | +10.8 | — | ESPN2 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | vs 76UCFCONF | W 20–11 | +4.8 | — | FS1 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | @ 124Oklahoma StateCONF | W 49–17 | +18.0 | — | ESPN2 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | vs 70BaylorCONF | W 41–20 | +18.1 | — | ESPN2 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | @ 7UtahCONF | L 14–45 | -8.9 | — | ESPN |
| 11 | — | Bye | ||||
| 12 | Nov 15 | vs 29ArizonaCONF | L 24–30 | -1.6 | — | FS1 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | vs 12BYUCONF | L 14–26 | -2.9 | — | FOX |
| 14 | Nov 29 | @ 34TCUCONF | L 23–45 | -13.4 | — | FOX |
| Bowls | Jan 2 | vs 49NavyNEUTRAL | L 13–35 | -18.5 | — | ESPN |
Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted
| Stat | Offense | FBS rank | Defense (allowed) | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play) | ||||
| Success rate | 47.2% | 23rd | 45.0% | 103rd |
| Rushing success rate | 49.0% | 18th | 47.0% | 113th |
| Passing success rate | 45.5% | 31st | 42.8% | 88th |
| Explosive run rate | 17.4% | 15th | 12.8% | 52nd |
| Explosive pass rate | 12.4% | 22nd | 9.9% | 68th |
| Line yards / carry | 3.58 | 4th | 3.30 | 115th |
| Opportunity rate | 48.4% | 1st | 39.0% | 86th |
| Stuff rate | 14.8% | 37th | 14.3% | 112th |
| Sack rate | 2.2% | 3rd | 5.1% | 89th |
| 3rd-down conversion | 40.3% | 79th | 43.3% | 103rd |
| Red-zone TD rate | 65.0% | 30th | 47.7% | 28th |
| Havoc rate | 8.7% | 8th | 8.6% | 129th |
| Box score · season totals | ||||
| Points / game | 30.3 | 55th | 33.6 | 122nd |
| Yards / game | 407.3 | 43rd | 399.2 | 94th |
| Yards / play | 6.83 | 6th | 5.47 | 76th |
| Pass yards / game | 231.2 | 62nd | 211.4 | 75th |
| Yards / pass att. | 8.24 | 26th | 7.37 | 84th |
| Completion % | 61.6% | 73rd | 66.8% | 125th |
| Rush yards / game | 176.1 | 46th | 178.8 | 107th |
| Yards / carry | 5.69 | 3rd | 4.33 | 81st |
| 3rd-down conv. % | 38.7% | 81st | — | — |
| Turnovers / game (lost · forced) | 1.08 | 38th | — | — |
| Sacks / game (allowed · made) | 0.62 | 2nd | 1.77 | 93rd |
| Penalty yards / game | 65.1 | 120th | — | — |
71 players who recorded a stat in 2025 (from box scores)
Final ratings for 2025, built with the same model as the current season. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. All 2025 power rankings →