The TDC Rating after every week of the season
Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result / TDC line | Game score | Win chance | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | vs VMI FCS | W 52–7 | +6.5 | — | CBSSN |
| 2 | Sep 6 | vs 125UABCONF | W 38–24 | -0.5 | — | CBSSN |
| 3 | Sep 13 | @ 116TulsaCONF | W 42–23 | +11.5 | — | ESPN+ |
| 4 | — | Bye | ||||
| 5 | Sep 27 | vs 126RiceCONF | W 21–13 | -6.6 | — | CBSSN |
| 6 | Oct 4 | vs 95Air Force | W 34–31 | -5.0 | — | CBS |
| 7 | Oct 11 | @ 99TempleCONF | W 32–31 | -2.2 | — | ESPN2 |
| 8 | — | Bye | ||||
| 9 | Oct 25 | vs 110Florida AtlanticCONF | W 42–32 | -1.0 | — | CBSSN |
| 10 | Nov 1 | @ 23North TexasCONF | L 17–31 | -2.7 | — | ESPN2 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | @ 3Notre Dame | L 10–49 | -6.3 | — | NBC |
| 12 | Nov 15 | vs 22South FloridaCONF | W 41–38 | +9.5 | — | ESPN2 |
| 13 | — | Bye | ||||
| 14 | Nov 27 | @ 48MemphisCONF | W 28–17 | +17.3 | — | ESPN |
| 15 | — | Bye | ||||
| 16 | Dec 13 | vs 69ArmyNEUTRAL | W 17–16 | +0.9 | — | CBS |
| Bowls | Jan 2 | vs 58CincinnatiNEUTRAL | W 35–13 | +24.0 | — | ESPN |
Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted
| Stat | Offense | FBS rank | Defense (allowed) | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play) | ||||
| Success rate | 49.9% | 9th | 41.2% | 58th |
| Rushing success rate | 52.6% | 6th | 39.3% | 22nd |
| Passing success rate | 41.7% | 60th | 43.3% | 102nd |
| Explosive run rate | 16.3% | 30th | 12.1% | 39th |
| Explosive pass rate | 15.6% | 4th | 12.2% | 116th |
| Line yards / carry | 3.63 | 2nd | 3.09 | 77th |
| Opportunity rate | 42.6% | 16th | 35.7% | 36th |
| Stuff rate | 9.8% | 1st | 15.7% | 94th |
| Sack rate | 4.3% | 45th | 6.4% | 36th |
| 3rd-down conversion | 52.3% | 6th | 41.1% | 68th |
| Red-zone TD rate | 64.7% | 32nd | 57.1% | 67th |
| Havoc rate | 6.9% | 2nd | 9.4% | 123rd |
| Box score · season totals | ||||
| Points / game | 31.9 | 38th | 25.0 | 61st |
| Yards / game | 415.6 | 33rd | 371.3 | 64th |
| Yards / play | 6.46 | 19th | 5.67 | 94th |
| Pass yards / game | 130.0 | 133rd | 215.9 | 93rd |
| Yards / pass att. | 9.29 | 6th | 8.04 | 116th |
| Completion % | 58.2% | 108th | 64.3% | 103rd |
| Rush yards / game | 285.6 | 1st | 141.3 | 54th |
| Yards / carry | 5.76 | 2nd | 4.06 | 60th |
| 3rd-down conv. % | 51.8% | 4th | — | — |
| Turnovers / game (lost · forced) | 1.08 | 38th | — | — |
| Sacks / game (allowed · made) | 0.69 | 3rd | 2.08 | 66th |
| Penalty yards / game | 48.3 | 42nd | — | — |
66 players who recorded a stat in 2025 (from box scores)
Final ratings for 2025, built with the same model as the current season. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. All 2025 power rankings →