
The TDC Rating after every week of the season
Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result / TDC line | Game score | Win chance | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 28 | vs 46Boise State | W 34–7 | +25.9 | — | ESPN |
| 2 | Sep 6 | @ 53Florida | W 18–16 | +7.3 | — | SEC Network |
| 3 | Sep 13 | @ 6Miami | L 12–49 | -8.4 | — | CW |
| 4 | Sep 20 | vs South Carolina State FCS | W 63–14 | +7.9 | — | ESPN+ |
| 5 | — | Bye | ||||
| 6 | Oct 3 | vs 135CharlotteCONF | W 54–26 | +4.7 | — | ESPN2 |
| 7 | Oct 10 | @ 23North TexasCONF | W 63–36 | +36.3 | — | ESPN2 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | vs 110Florida AtlanticCONF | W 48–13 | +16.9 | — | ESPNU |
| 9 | Oct 25 | @ 48MemphisCONF | L 31–34 | +3.3 | — | ESPN2 |
| 10 | — | Bye | ||||
| 11 | Nov 6 | vs 56UTSACONF | W 55–23 | +26.2 | — | ESPN |
| 12 | Nov 15 | @ 49NavyCONF | L 38–41 | +3.3 | — | ESPN2 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | @ 125UABCONF | W 48–18 | +17.2 | — | ESPN+ |
| 14 | Nov 29 | vs 126RiceCONF | W 52–3 | +18.2 | — | ESPN+ |
| Bowls | Dec 17 | vs 32Old DominionNEUTRAL | L 10–24 | -8.0 | — | ESPN |
Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted
| Stat | Offense | FBS rank | Defense (allowed) | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play) | ||||
| Success rate | 46.4% | 32nd | 37.3% | 15th |
| Rushing success rate | 47.1% | 38th | 37.2% | 10th |
| Passing success rate | 45.7% | 29th | 37.4% | 30th |
| Explosive run rate | 15.4% | 38th | 12.9% | 54th |
| Explosive pass rate | 12.9% | 17th | 8.8% | 38th |
| Line yards / carry | 3.34 | 23rd | 2.73 | 17th |
| Opportunity rate | 40.8% | 43rd | 33.1% | 13th |
| Stuff rate | 13.1% | 12th | 21.8% | 13th |
| Sack rate | 4.9% | 59th | 5.8% | 60th |
| 3rd-down conversion | 48.0% | 17th | 39.9% | 58th |
| Red-zone TD rate | 67.6% | 23rd | 41.7% | 7th |
| Havoc rate | 9.5% | 22nd | 12.6% | 49th |
| Box score · season totals | ||||
| Points / game | 45.4 | 3rd | 23.4 | 47th |
| Yards / game | 488.7 | 3rd | 386.5 | 84th |
| Yards / play | 6.82 | 7th | 4.96 | 38th |
| Pass yards / game | 276.6 | 18th | 225.1 | 102nd |
| Yards / pass att. | 8.88 | 12th | 6.59 | 41st |
| Completion % | 66.4% | 24th | 61.6% | 64th |
| Rush yards / game | 212.1 | 13th | 143.7 | 60th |
| Yards / carry | 5.45 | 11th | 3.73 | 39th |
| 3rd-down conv. % | 47.0% | 17th | — | — |
| Turnovers / game (lost · forced) | 1.54 | 101st | — | — |
| Sacks / game (allowed · made) | 1.62 | 44th | 2.54 | 30th |
| Penalty yards / game | 61.2 | 106th | — | — |
81 players who recorded a stat in 2025 (from box scores)
Final ratings for 2025, built with the same model as the current season. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. All 2025 power rankings →