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American · 2026

South Florida Bulls

Head coach Brian Hartline · Raymond James Stadium
6-22-2 in conference
TDC Rank
#74
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
-1.5
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
-2.8
87th in FBS
Defense
+1.3
59th in FBS
Schedule so far
-13.9
133rd toughest
Projected
8.3-3.7
bowl-eligible >99%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

-1.5 now, +3.1 preseason · down 27 spots since preseason
0+5FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8Wk 9#74

Final record odds

8.3-3.7 expected · most likely 8-4 (36%)
6-618%7-536%8-432%9-311%10-2

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Michael Van Buren Jr.
QB · 100th in FBS
1273yds
6 TD · 0 INT
Rushing
D.J. Crowther
RB · SR · 55th in FBS
578yds
121 car · 7 TD
Receiving
Bryson Rodgers
WR · JR · 194th in FBS
345yds
33 rec · 2 TD
Tackles
Ayden Jackson
DB · SR · 330th in FBS
42tkl
3 TFL
Sacks
C.J. Hicks
DE · SR · 36th in FBS
5sacks
2 hurries
Interceptions
Tayvion Beasley
DB · SR · 145th in FBS
1INT
1 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 5vs119Florida InternationalW 19–9 ›-8.4—ESPN+
2Sep 12@76ArmyCONFW 28–24 ›+5.6—CBSSN
3Sep 19vsDelaware State FCSW 59–17 ›-5.2—ESPN+
4Sep 26@127Bowling GreenW 14–6 ›-6.6—ESPN+
5Oct 3vs102TempleCONFL 13–17 ›-17.9—ESPNU
6Oct 8@70UTSACONFL 24–31 ›-2.8—ESPN
7Oct 17vs135Kent StateW 29–2 ›-2.2—ESPN+
8—Bye
9Oct 31vs113UABCONFW 30–10 ›+3.1—ESPNU
10Nov 6@83East CarolinaCONFEast Carolina −0.7 · o/u 44.7—48%ESPN2
11Nov 12vs58MemphisCONFMemphis −1.2 · o/u 54.7—47%ESPN
12Nov 21@99Florida AtlanticCONFSouth Florida −4.5 · o/u 60.6—62%
13Nov 27vs90TulaneCONFSouth Florida −8.5 · o/u 42.3—72%

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.10784th+0.00830th
Success rate45.5%40th40.4%58th
Explosiveness1.060136th1.0403rd
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate45.7%40th40.1%52nd
Rushing success rate47.1%35th40.2%48th
Passing success rate44.0%51st40.1%63rd
Explosive run rate12.4%98th11.4%43rd
Explosive pass rate7.5%122nd7.7%27th
Line yards / carry3.1272nd2.7121st
Opportunity rate40.1%60th34.6%38th
Stuff rate17.8%85th23.6%12th
Sack rate6.5%95th7.2%28th
3rd-down conversion40.9%68th39.3%68th
Red-zone TD rate60.9%80th27.8%3rd
Havoc rate11.1%23rd14.3%61st
Box score · season totals
Points / game27.075th14.510th
Yards / game314.6129th306.624th
Yards / play5.17107th4.6322nd
Pass yards / game166.6128th178.422nd
Yards / pass att.6.8098th6.4032nd
Completion %64.1%57th61.0%60th
Rush yards / game148.080th128.349th
Yards / carry4.3074th3.5837th
3rd-down conv. %40.2%64th35.1%41st
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)0.505th1.1278th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)2.0075th2.5037th
Penalty yards / game37.09th46.8110th

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
7.9
105th of 138
YAC per catch
6.2
29th of 138
Deep shots (20+)
13%
87th of 138
Shotgun
91%
110th of 138
No-huddle
9%
129th of 138
QB pressured
14%
61st of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
17%
27th of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
5.0
80th of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws191 throws charted

64% comp7.9 avg. depth6.2 YAC/catch13% 20+ air yds6–0 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 20 throws (10%), 18 caught (90%), 167 yds, 8.3 per throw2090% · 167yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 12 throws (6%), 10 caught (83%), 89 yds, 7.4 per throw1283% · 89yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 15 throws (8%), 12 caught (80%), 154 yds, 10.3 per throw1580% · 154yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 8 throws (4%), 2 caught (25%), 27 yds, 3.4 per throw825% · 27yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 1 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 2 caught (40%), 46 yds, 9.2 per throw540% · 46yLeft, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw40% · 0yMiddle, Behind air yards: 3 throws (2%), 3 caught (100%), 19 yds, 6.3 per throw3100% · 19yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 11 throws (6%), 9 caught (82%), 84 yds, 7.6 per throw1182% · 84yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 8 throws (4%), 5 caught (63%), 43 yds, 5.4 per throw863% · 43yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 3 caught (50%), 44 yds, 7.3 per throw650% · 44yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 3 caught (50%), 55 yds, 9.2 per throw650% · 55yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 1 caught (20%), 22 yds, 4.4 per throw520% · 22yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (3%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw50% · 0yRight, Behind air yards: 22 throws (12%), 18 caught (82%), 118 yds, 5.4 per throw2282% · 118yRight, 0–4 air yards: 19 throws (10%), 11 caught (58%), 61 yds, 3.2 per throw1958% · 61yRight, 5–9 air yards: 17 throws (9%), 11 caught (65%), 110 yds, 6.5 per throw1765% · 110yRight, 10–14 air yards: 14 throws (7%), 9 caught (64%), 114 yds, 8.1 per throw1464% · 114yRight, 15–19 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 2 caught (50%), 40 yds, 10.0 per throw450% · 40yRight, 20–29 air yards: 1 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0yRight, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (3%), 2 caught (40%), 78 yds, 15.6 per throw540% · 78y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on216 throws charted

61% comp8.1 avg. depth5.0 YAC/catch12% 20+ air yds6–2 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 13 throws (6%), 11 caught (85%), 38 yds, 2.9 per throw1385% · 38yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 21 throws (10%), 13 caught (62%), 85 yds, 4.0 per throw2162% · 85yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 16 throws (7%), 7 caught (44%), 49 yds, 3.1 per throw1644% · 49yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 3 caught (43%), 33 yds, 4.7 per throw743% · 33yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 3 caught (43%), 59 yds, 8.4 per throw743% · 59yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 8 throws (4%), 2 caught (25%), 50 yds, 6.3 per throw825% · 50yLeft, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 41 yds, 20.5 per throw250% · 41yMiddle, Behind air yards: 3 throws (1%), 3 caught (100%), 35 yds, 11.7 per throw3100% · 35yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 16 throws (7%), 12 caught (75%), 98 yds, 6.1 per throw1675% · 98yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 11 throws (5%), 8 caught (73%), 85 yds, 7.7 per throw1173% · 85yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 4 caught (67%), 131 yds, 21.8 per throw667% · 131yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 3 caught (75%), 76 yds, 19.0 per throw475% · 76yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 1 throws (0%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw50% · 0yRight, Behind air yards: 20 throws (9%), 16 caught (80%), 49 yds, 2.5 per throw2080% · 49yRight, 0–4 air yards: 22 throws (10%), 14 caught (64%), 87 yds, 4.0 per throw2264% · 87yRight, 5–9 air yards: 24 throws (11%), 18 caught (75%), 165 yds, 6.9 per throw2475% · 165yRight, 10–14 air yards: 14 throws (6%), 8 caught (57%), 121 yds, 8.6 per throw1457% · 121yRight, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 2 caught (33%), 57 yds, 9.5 per throw633% · 57yRight, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 2 caught (40%), 46 yds, 9.2 per throw540% · 46yRight, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (2%), 1 caught (20%), 37 yds, 7.4 per throw520% · 37y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction247 carries

Left
22%
5.1 YPC · 55% succ.
Middle
55%
5.3 YPC · 50% succ.
Right
22%
4.7 YPC · 40% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced261 carries

Left
21%
5.2 YPC · 37% succ.
Middle
56%
4.0 YPC · 38% succ.
Right
23%
4.4 YPC · 41% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Brian Hartline

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
10KJ CooperQBSR6' 5"230El Paso, TX
16Jayden BradfordQBSO6' 0"200Columbia, SC
17Luke KromenhoekQBSO6' 4"220Savannah, GA
2Jason Collins Jr.RBJR5' 9"190Washington, DC
5D.J. CrowtherRBSR5' 11"215Sacramento, CA
15Alvon IsaacRBSO5' 9"195Gainesville, FL
22Chase GarnettRBFR5' 9"205Fort Worth, TX
24Tray KinkleRBSO5' 11"200Holly Springs, MS
25Jayson FranklinRBFR5' 11"205Fayetteville, NC
32Connor MathewsRBFR5' 8"212Niceville, FL
0Cameron SeldonWRSR6' 1"220Browns Store, VA
1Bryson RodgersWRJR6' 2"187Tampa, FL
4Arhmad BranchWRJR6' 0"185Festus, MO
6Mudia ReubenWRSR6' 2"215Kansas City, MO
7Jaron GloverWRSR6' 1"208Sarasota, FL
11Dmari RobertsWRFR6' 3"180St. Petersburg, FL
12Jaden AlexisWRSR6' 0"200Pompano Beach, FL
14Arkese ParksWRSO6' 2"185Tampa, FL
18Kenny OdomWRSR5' 10"185Savannah, GA
19JeyQuan SmithWRJR5' 10"190San Bernardino, CA
27Jayden DavisWRJR5' 10"185Baltimore, MD
80Joshua PorterWRJR6' 0"193Sebring, FL
82Gabe LegrandWRFR6' 3"210Lake Wales, FL
8Wyatt SullivanTESR6' 4"245Atlanta, GA
47Evan DanglerTESR6' 3"250Bradenton, FL
81Tayte CrableTEFR6' 5"235Massillon, OH
85Kade CatonTESO6' 5"260Manvel, TX
87Luke ClyburnTESR6' 7"260Camden, SC
88Brandon KubayTEFR6' 3"245Winnipeg, Canada
54Braden CarterOLSO6' 6"305Cumming, GA
55James JenkinsOLJR6' 5"300Tampa, FL
58TJ LawrenceOLSO6' 5"305Orange Park, FL
59Devin DavisOLSR6' 3"310Atlanta, GA
60Khalil CollinsOLFR6' 1"305Moultrie, GA
61Julius TateOLSO6' 3"310Greenville, SC
65Jaylin AcevedoOLSO6' 4"325Orlando, FL
66Teriyan MormanOLSO6' 5"355Ocala, FL
67Thomas ShraderOLSR6' 5"312Venice, FL
70Gerrick Gordon Jr.OLFR6' 4"300Reddick, FL
71Kahari FinleyOLSR6' 5"310Clinton, MD
72Cash HudsonOLSR6' 3"305Tulsa, OK
73Caleb HarrisOLFR6' 4"300Miami, FL
74Jordan HarrisonOLFR6' 2"300Clinton, MD
76Colin BellomyOLFR6' 7"295Powder Springs, GA
78Caleb CookOLSR6' 3"315Brunswick, GA
79Ethan GreenOLSR6' 7"325Fremont, OH
56Terry Simmons Jr.DLJR6' 2"320Savannah, GA
95Iverson Garcia-PonceDLFR6' 2"310Knoxville, TN
99Jahari GrantDLJR6' 2"310Port Saint Lucie, FL
1C.J. HicksDESR6' 3"240Dayton, OH
14Eli JonesDEFR6' 3"250Venice, FL
18Levi SmileyDESO6' 4"260Cincinnati, OH
19Peter RamilDEFR6' 5"250Binghamton, NY
49Harrysson NgassaDESO6' 4"232Chicago, IL
90Terrell JonesDESR6' 5"270Hoover, AL
11Asani RedwoodDTSR6' 3"300Suwanee, GA
28Ryan JenkinsDTJR6' 4"290Albany, GA
77Major DillardDTSR6' 2"330Upper Marlboro, MD
93Richard Scott IIIDTSO6' 4"285Fort Lauderdale, FL
96Sager QuinnDTFR6' 1"295Cohutta, GA
0Grayson HowardLBJR6' 4"240Jacksonville, FL
6Rodney HillLBJR5' 10"225Bunnell, FL
7Sam RobinsonLBSO6' 3"220Tallahassee, FL
10Shamar MeikleLBJR6' 3"235Miramar, FL
25Zavier HamiltonLBSO6' 2"230Gulf Breeze, FL
30Lorenzo BarnesLBFR6' 3"225Marianna, FL
32Demetrius Geathers Jr.LBFR6' 3"235Deerfield Beach, FL
33Ashton MosleyLBSO6' 3"245Blountstown, FL
36DeAngelo BowdenLBFR6' 0"220Washington, DC
40Gavin LeachLBSO6' 2"225Newburgh, IN
44Dennis King IIILBFR6' 2"225Daytona Beach, FL
45Marshon OxleyLBSR6' 1"232South Central, CA
51Michael HarrisLBJR6' 0"223Apopka, FL
52Christian SmithLBFR6' 3"235Kennesaw, GA
55Greg OttenLBJR6' 1"220Fort Lauderdale, FL
5Ayden JacksonDBSR5' 11"195Atlanta, GA
12Jabari SmithDBSO5' 11"185Orlando, FL
15Tayvion BeasleyDBSR5' 10"185Inglewood, CA
41George Brown IVDBSO5' 10"183Orlando, FL
3Za'Quan BryanCBJR5' 10"195Savannah, GA
8Amarion FortenberryCBJR5' 10"188Columbia, MS
16Teddy FosterCBSO6' 0"190Sarasota, FL
17Masiyah LimehouseCBFR6' 1"190Plant City, FL
29Deylen PlattCBSO6' 3"190Venice, FL
31Jair MurphyCBJR6' 0"200Ocoee, FL
34Keyshaun BirksCBFR6' 1"190St. Petersburg, FL
35Herlin Perry Jr.CBFR5' 11"180East Providence, RI
39Daron JeanCBSO5' 10"185Bradenton, FL
9Israel BoyceSJR6' 0"195Douglasville, GA
20A'Mon Lane-GanusSSO5' 10"185Columbiana, AL
23Cedrick Hawkins Jr.SJR6' 0"192Titusville, FL
24Amari JonesSFR6' 0"180Dunnellon, FL
26CJ Cresser Jr.SFR6' 0"205Brooksville, FL
27Jermichael GillisSFR6' 1"180Lakeland, FL
38Derrick Nichols IIISFR5' 11"170Miami, FL
7Nico GramaticaPKJR5' 8"170Tampa, FL
10Gaston GramaticaPKFR5' 10"195Tampa, FL
39Luke GoaterPFR6' 2"210Melbourne, Australia
48Turner McLaughlinLSSO6' 1"225Pensacola, FL
49Easton BonnettLSSO5' 11"195Orlando, FL

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2025 (+9.3, #22) · worst: 2014 (-11.5, #115)
-100+10FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#22
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far6-22-2#74-1.5-2.8+1.3
20259-46-2#22+9.3+7.7+1.6
20247-64-4#80-2.6+1.3-3.9
20237-64-4#96-5.3+2.2-7.4
20221-110-8#120-10.0+0.4-10.5
20212-101-7#109-8.5-3.1-5.4
20201-80-7#114-10.0-4.1-5.9
20194-82-6#99-5.9-6.5+0.6
20187-63-5#97-6.0-1.6-4.4
201710-26-2#33+6.2+6.4-0.2
201611-27-1#28+6.6+11.1-4.5
20158-56-2#49+3.8+0.7+3.1
20144-83-5#115-11.5-10.5-1.0

South Florida's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Nov 3, 12:25 PM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →