The TDC Rating after every week of the season
Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result / TDC line | Game score | Win chance | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | @ 103Louisiana | W 14–12 | -1.5 | — | ESPN+ |
| 2 | Sep 6 | vs 52Houston | L 9–35 | -24.6 | — | ESPN+ |
| 3 | Sep 13 | vs Prairie View A&M FCS | W 38–17 | -3.8 | — | ESPN+ |
| 4 | Sep 18 | @ 135CharlotteCONF | W 28–17 | -4.1 | — | ESPN |
| 5 | Sep 27 | @ 49NavyCONF | L 13–21 | -1.7 | — | CBSSN |
| 6 | Oct 4 | vs 110Florida AtlanticCONF | L 21–27 | -17.0 | — | ESPN+ |
| 7 | Oct 11 | @ 56UTSACONF | L 13–61 | -27.4 | — | ESPNU |
| 8 | — | Bye | ||||
| 9 | Oct 25 | vs 75UConn | W 37–34 | -1.0 | — | ESPN+ |
| 10 | Oct 31 | vs 48MemphisCONF | L 14–38 | -23.3 | — | ESPN2 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | vs 125UABCONF | W 24–17 | -7.5 | — | ESPN+ |
| 12 | — | Bye | ||||
| 13 | Nov 22 | vs 23North TexasCONF | L 24–56 | -21.1 | — | ESPNU |
| 14 | Nov 29 | @ 22South FloridaCONF | L 3–52 | -20.7 | — | ESPN+ |
| Bowls | Jan 2 | vs 62Texas StateNEUTRAL | L 10–41 | -25.1 | — | ESPNU |
Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted
| Stat | Offense | FBS rank | Defense (allowed) | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play) | ||||
| Success rate | 38.5% | 114th | 40.8% | 53rd |
| Rushing success rate | 40.2% | 109th | 42.8% | 62nd |
| Passing success rate | 34.4% | 125th | 38.9% | 45th |
| Explosive run rate | 12.3% | 105th | 15.3% | 101st |
| Explosive pass rate | 7.1% | 124th | 12.9% | 123rd |
| Line yards / carry | 2.83 | 113th | 3.16 | 96th |
| Opportunity rate | 34.7% | 118th | 38.3% | 71st |
| Stuff rate | 18.5% | 92nd | 15.9% | 89th |
| Sack rate | 7.9% | 118th | 6.3% | 41st |
| 3rd-down conversion | 37.0% | 103rd | 43.5% | 104th |
| Red-zone TD rate | 72.0% | 14th | 68.8% | 122nd |
| Havoc rate | 12.1% | 87th | 10.1% | 112th |
| Box score · season totals | ||||
| Points / game | 19.1 | 123rd | 32.9 | 115th |
| Yards / game | 302.4 | 126th | 403.9 | 100th |
| Yards / play | 4.41 | 132nd | 6.11 | 120th |
| Pass yards / game | 97.6 | 135th | 227.3 | 108th |
| Yards / pass att. | 5.67 | 133rd | 8.32 | 124th |
| Completion % | 66.1% | 28th | 61.6% | 65th |
| Rush yards / game | 204.8 | 15th | 163.7 | 88th |
| Yards / carry | 4.11 | 86th | 4.65 | 98th |
| 3rd-down conv. % | 34.0% | 116th | — | — |
| Turnovers / game (lost · forced) | 0.85 | 10th | — | — |
| Sacks / game (allowed · made) | 1.54 | 35th | 2.00 | 69th |
| Penalty yards / game | 49.5 | 50th | — | — |
70 players who recorded a stat in 2025 (from box scores)
Final ratings for 2025, built with the same model as the current season. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. All 2025 power rankings →