The TDC Rating after every week of the season
Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result / TDC line | Game score | Win chance | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | vs Central Connecticut FCS | W 59–13 | +6.9 | — | |
| 2 | Sep 6 | @ 106Syracuse | L 20–27 | -11.2 | — | ESPN+ |
| 3 | Sep 13 | @ 112Delaware | L 41–44 | -8.9 | — | ESPN+ |
| 4 | Sep 20 | vs 132Ball State | W 31–25 | -11.3 | — | CBSSN |
| 5 | Sep 27 | @ 109Buffalo | W 20–17 | -1.8 | — | ESPN+ |
| 6 | Oct 4 | vs 104Florida International | W 51–10 | +20.6 | — | CBSSN |
| 7 | — | Bye | ||||
| 8 | Oct 18 | @ 94Boston College | W 38–23 | +12.8 | — | ACC Network |
| 9 | Oct 25 | @ 126Rice | L 34–37 | -12.0 | — | ESPN+ |
| 10 | Nov 1 | vs 125UAB | W 38–19 | +4.5 | — | CBSSN |
| 11 | Nov 8 | vs 44Duke | W 37–34 | +4.5 | — | CBSSN |
| 12 | Nov 15 | vs 95Air Force | W 26–16 | +2.0 | — | CBSSN |
| 13 | Nov 22 | @ 110Florida Atlantic | W 48–45 | -2.4 | — | ESPN+ |
| Bowls | Dec 27 | vs 69ArmyNEUTRAL | L 16–41 | -24.4 | — | ESPN |
Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted
| Stat | Offense | FBS rank | Defense (allowed) | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play) | ||||
| Success rate | 45.9% | 35th | 47.3% | 126th |
| Rushing success rate | 45.4% | 54th | 50.7% | 131st |
| Passing success rate | 46.3% | 24th | 43.2% | 98th |
| Explosive run rate | 13.6% | 76th | 15.9% | 113th |
| Explosive pass rate | 10.6% | 59th | 9.4% | 55th |
| Line yards / carry | 3.01 | 81st | 3.56 | 133rd |
| Opportunity rate | 42.8% | 14th | 43.8% | 130th |
| Stuff rate | 15.9% | 49th | 10.4% | 136th |
| Sack rate | 3.1% | 12th | 7.3% | 16th |
| 3rd-down conversion | 39.6% | 85th | 39.1% | 50th |
| Red-zone TD rate | 64.3% | 36th | 62.5% | 98th |
| Havoc rate | 10.2% | 33rd | 9.5% | 120th |
| Box score · season totals | ||||
| Points / game | 35.3 | 18th | 35.5 | 125th |
| Yards / game | 445.2 | 21st | 418.0 | 115th |
| Yards / play | 6.61 | 11th | 5.56 | 87th |
| Pass yards / game | 284.4 | 12th | 198.3 | 55th |
| Yards / pass att. | 8.16 | 29th | 7.23 | 72nd |
| Completion % | 68.0% | 14th | 65.4% | 112th |
| Rush yards / game | 160.8 | 63rd | 199.5 | 124th |
| Yards / carry | 5.14 | 22nd | 4.74 | 109th |
| 3rd-down conv. % | 41.8% | 46th | — | — |
| Turnovers / game (lost · forced) | 0.15 | 1st | — | — |
| Sacks / game (allowed · made) | 1.23 | 15th | 2.85 | 15th |
| Penalty yards / game | 48.3 | 42nd | — | — |
65 players who recorded a stat in 2025 (from box scores)
Final ratings for 2025, built with the same model as the current season. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. All 2025 power rankings →