The TDC Rating after every week of the season
Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result / TDC line | Game score | Win chance | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | vs Tarleton State FCS | L 27–30 | -27.8 | — | CBSSN |
| 2 | Sep 6 | @ 47Kansas State | W 24–21 | +9.4 | — | ESPN |
| 3 | — | Bye | ||||
| 4 | Sep 20 | vs 23North TexasCONF | L 38–45 | -1.3 | — | CBSSN |
| 5 | Sep 25 | @ 37East CarolinaCONF | L 6–28 | -13.9 | — | ESPN |
| 6 | Oct 4 | @ 125UABCONF | W 31–13 | +9.1 | — | ESPNU |
| 7 | Oct 11 | vs 135CharlotteCONF | W 24–7 | -3.7 | — | CBSSN |
| 8 | Oct 18 | @ 41TulaneCONF | L 17–24 | +0.4 | — | ESPNU |
| 9 | — | Bye | ||||
| 10 | Nov 1 | @ 95Air Force | W 20–17 | +0.6 | — | CBS |
| 11 | Nov 8 | vs 99TempleCONF | W 14–13 | -7.8 | — | CBSSN |
| 12 | — | Bye | ||||
| 13 | Nov 22 | vs 116TulsaCONF | L 25–26 | -14.1 | — | CBSSN |
| 14 | Nov 29 | @ 56UTSACONF | W 27–24 | +8.0 | — | ESPN+ |
| 15 | — | Bye | ||||
| 16 | Dec 13 | vs 49NavyNEUTRAL | L 16–17 | +2.5 | — | CBS |
| Bowls | Dec 27 | vs 75UConnNEUTRAL | W 41–16 | +23.1 | — | ESPN |
Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted
| Stat | Offense | FBS rank | Defense (allowed) | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play) | ||||
| Success rate | 43.1% | 64th | 45.5% | 112th |
| Rushing success rate | 43.8% | 75th | 46.2% | 102nd |
| Passing success rate | 39.2% | 96th | 44.7% | 112th |
| Explosive run rate | 8.8% | 131st | 13.0% | 58th |
| Explosive pass rate | 14.9% | 6th | 7.5% | 15th |
| Line yards / carry | 3.13 | 55th | 3.33 | 119th |
| Opportunity rate | 35.5% | 107th | 41.8% | 117th |
| Stuff rate | 11.8% | 5th | 14.5% | 110th |
| Sack rate | 3.2% | 13th | 2.9% | 131st |
| 3rd-down conversion | 43.4% | 45th | 46.4% | 117th |
| Red-zone TD rate | 74.3% | 8th | 57.5% | 68th |
| Havoc rate | 6.8% | 1st | 8.4% | 130th |
| Box score · season totals | ||||
| Points / game | 24.0 | 99th | 22.1 | 35th |
| Yards / game | 335.8 | 110th | 343.5 | 43rd |
| Yards / play | 4.95 | 110th | 5.47 | 74th |
| Pass yards / game | 80.8 | 136th | 183.0 | 35th |
| Yards / pass att. | 8.28 | 24th | 6.89 | 55th |
| Completion % | 53.5% | 133rd | 63.5% | 91st |
| Rush yards / game | 254.9 | 4th | 153.2 | 74th |
| Yards / carry | 4.43 | 63rd | 4.49 | 90th |
| 3rd-down conv. % | 41.2% | 53rd | — | — |
| Turnovers / game (lost · forced) | 0.85 | 10th | — | — |
| Sacks / game (allowed · made) | 0.54 | 1st | 1.15 | 129th |
| Penalty yards / game | 21.9 | 1st | — | — |
60 players who recorded a stat in 2025 (from box scores)
Final ratings for 2025, built with the same model as the current season. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. All 2025 power rankings →