
The TDC Rating after every week of the season
Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result / TDC line | Game score | Win chance | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 28 | @ 42NC State | L 17–24 | +0.2 | — | ACC Network |
| 2 | Sep 6 | vs Campbell FCS | W 56–3 | +9.3 | — | ESPN+ |
| 3 | Sep 13 | @ 111Coastal Carolina | W 38–0 | +23.2 | — | ESPN+ |
| 4 | Sep 20 | vs 12BYU | L 13–34 | -11.9 | — | ESPN2 |
| 5 | Sep 25 | vs 69ArmyCONF | W 28–6 | +19.1 | — | ESPN |
| 6 | — | Bye | ||||
| 7 | Oct 9 | @ 41TulaneCONF | L 19–26 | +0.4 | — | ESPN |
| 8 | Oct 16 | vs 116TulsaCONF | W 41–27 | +0.9 | — | ESPN |
| 9 | — | Bye | ||||
| 10 | Nov 1 | @ 99TempleCONF | W 45–14 | +23.3 | — | ESPN+ |
| 11 | Nov 8 | vs 135CharlotteCONF | W 48–22 | +4.0 | — | ESPN+ |
| 12 | Nov 15 | vs 48MemphisCONF | W 31–27 | +4.7 | — | ESPNU |
| 13 | Nov 22 | @ 56UTSACONF | L 24–58 | -22.5 | — | ESPN+ |
| 14 | Nov 29 | @ 110Florida AtlanticCONF | W 42–3 | +23.9 | — | ESPN+ |
| Bowls | Dec 27 | vs 31PittsburghNEUTRAL | W 23–17 | +12.4 | — | ESPN |
Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted
| Stat | Offense | FBS rank | Defense (allowed) | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play) | ||||
| Success rate | 46.8% | 25th | 39.4% | 33rd |
| Rushing success rate | 45.2% | 55th | 39.6% | 27th |
| Passing success rate | 48.5% | 13th | 39.3% | 48th |
| Explosive run rate | 8.4% | 135th | 15.7% | 107th |
| Explosive pass rate | 11.6% | 32nd | 8.5% | 33rd |
| Line yards / carry | 3.04 | 74th | 2.63 | 10th |
| Opportunity rate | 36.4% | 99th | 35.0% | 29th |
| Stuff rate | 13.3% | 13th | 26.9% | 3rd |
| Sack rate | 3.5% | 20th | 5.9% | 57th |
| 3rd-down conversion | 50.0% | 13th | 32.0% | 9th |
| Red-zone TD rate | 60.0% | 59th | 41.7% | 7th |
| Havoc rate | 8.2% | 5th | 13.6% | 25th |
| Box score · season totals | ||||
| Points / game | 32.7 | 32nd | 20.2 | 24th |
| Yards / game | 449.0 | 19th | 351.0 | 50th |
| Yards / play | 5.74 | 46th | 4.94 | 37th |
| Pass yards / game | 272.7 | 21st | 214.3 | 87th |
| Yards / pass att. | 8.06 | 33rd | 6.61 | 43rd |
| Completion % | 64.8% | 41st | 63.4% | 90th |
| Rush yards / game | 176.3 | 45th | 120.2 | 26th |
| Yards / carry | 4.10 | 89th | 3.59 | 27th |
| 3rd-down conv. % | 47.2% | 15th | — | — |
| Turnovers / game (lost · forced) | 1.08 | 38th | — | — |
| Sacks / game (allowed · made) | 1.38 | 24th | 2.62 | 23rd |
| Penalty yards / game | 61.5 | 107th | — | — |
77 players who recorded a stat in 2025 (from box scores)
Final ratings for 2025, built with the same model as the current season. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. All 2025 power rankings →