The TDC Rating after every week of the season
Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result / TDC line | Game score | Win chance | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 23 | vs 73Fresno State | W 31–7 | +20.4 | — | FOX |
| 1 | Aug 29 | vs Wagner FCS | W 46–7 | +4.4 | — | ESPN+ |
| 2 | Sep 6 | @ 28Missouri | L 31–42 | -0.8 | — | ESPN2 |
| 3 | — | Bye | ||||
| 4 | Sep 20 | vs 87West VirginiaCONF | W 41–10 | +20.1 | — | FS1 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | vs 58CincinnatiCONF | L 34–37 | -3.8 | — | TNT |
| 6 | Oct 4 | @ 76UCFCONF | W 27–20 | +8.4 | — | ESPN2 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | @ 4Texas TechCONF | L 17–42 | -3.7 | — | FOX |
| 8 | — | Bye | ||||
| 9 | Oct 25 | vs 47Kansas StateCONF | L 17–42 | -23.5 | — | TNT |
| 10 | Nov 1 | vs 124Oklahoma StateCONF | W 38–21 | +2.6 | — | ESPN+ |
| 11 | Nov 8 | @ 29ArizonaCONF | L 20–24 | +6.0 | — | ESPN2 |
| 12 | — | Bye | ||||
| 13 | Nov 22 | @ 35Iowa StateCONF | L 14–38 | -15.6 | — | FS1 |
| 14 | Nov 28 | vs 7UtahCONF | L 21–31 | +1.9 | — | ESPN |
Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted
| Stat | Offense | FBS rank | Defense (allowed) | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play) | ||||
| Success rate | 49.3% | 12th | 41.6% | 64th |
| Rushing success rate | 52.8% | 5th | 41.5% | 51st |
| Passing success rate | 45.6% | 30th | 41.8% | 74th |
| Explosive run rate | 17.1% | 20th | 16.5% | 122nd |
| Explosive pass rate | 13.3% | 14th | 11.2% | 102nd |
| Line yards / carry | 3.67 | 1st | 2.96 | 52nd |
| Opportunity rate | 46.9% | 3rd | 37.5% | 59th |
| Stuff rate | 10.9% | 3rd | 20.7% | 20th |
| Sack rate | 4.3% | 45th | 5.2% | 86th |
| 3rd-down conversion | 44.1% | 41st | 43.8% | 105th |
| Red-zone TD rate | 61.0% | 57th | 54.5% | 51st |
| Havoc rate | 10.5% | 44th | 11.9% | 66th |
| Box score · season totals | ||||
| Points / game | 28.1 | 71st | 29.4 | 86th |
| Yards / game | 390.5 | 68th | 387.2 | 86th |
| Yards / play | 5.90 | 36th | 5.68 | 95th |
| Pass yards / game | 222.3 | 72nd | 202.1 | 59th |
| Yards / pass att. | 7.73 | 43rd | 7.24 | 76th |
| Completion % | 61.2% | 78th | 63.9% | 99th |
| Rush yards / game | 168.3 | 56th | 173.1 | 97th |
| Yards / carry | 4.70 | 39th | 4.74 | 109th |
| 3rd-down conv. % | 38.5% | 85th | — | — |
| Turnovers / game (lost · forced) | 1.08 | 44th | — | — |
| Sacks / game (allowed · made) | 1.58 | 38th | 2.08 | 64th |
| Penalty yards / game | 39.8 | 18th | — | — |
75 players who recorded a stat in 2025 (from box scores)
Final ratings for 2025, built with the same model as the current season. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. All 2025 power rankings →