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Big 12 · 2026

Cincinnati Bearcats

Head coach Scott Satterfield · Nippert Stadium
5-32-3 in conference
TDC Rank
#55
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
+4.6
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
+4.6
39th in FBS
Defense
+0.1
68th in FBS
Schedule so far
+2.6
34th toughest
Projected
6.5-5.5
bowl-eligible 86%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

+4.6 now, +2.9 preseason · down 5 spots since preseason
0+5FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8Wk 9#54

Final record odds

6.5-5.5 expected · most likely 6-6 (40%)
14%5-740%6-634%7-511%8-49-3

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
JC French IV
QB · SR · 45th in FBS
1773yds
13 TD · 3 INT
Rushing
Cole Tabb
RB · JR · 19th in FBS
752yds
79 car · 10 TD
Receiving
JV Gibson
WR · SR · 88th in FBS
461yds
34 rec · 4 TD
Tackles
Antwan Peek Jr.
LB · SR · 69th in FBS
62tkl
3 TFL
Sacks
Patrick Bauer
EDGE · SR · 110th in FBS
3.5sacks
1 hurries
Interceptions
MJ Cannon
S · SR · 16th in FBS
3INT
4 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 5vs81Boston CollegeW 34–15 ›+11.5—FOX
2Sep 12vsWestern Carolina FCSW 62–10 ›+8.9—ESPN+
3Sep 19vs97Miami (OH)W 35–31 ›-7.8—ESPN+
4Sep 26vs44Kansas StateCONFW 31–26 ›+8.4—ESPN2
5Oct 3@22ArizonaCONFL 7–34 ›-7.3—Fox
6—Bye
7Oct 17@69West VirginiaCONFL 42–45 ›+1.2—TNT
8Oct 24vs12Texas TechCONFW 37–24 ›+27.1—FS1
9Oct 31vs8UtahCONFL 25–49 ›-5.0—ESPN
10Nov 7@32HoustonCONFHouston −10.9 · o/u 58.8—23%Fox
11Nov 14@51Iowa StateCONFIowa State −4.0 · o/u 59.2—40%
12Nov 21vs63ColoradoCONFCincinnati −6.2 · o/u 53.4—66%
13Nov 28@21BYUCONFBYU −13.4 · o/u 55.5—18%

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.27514th+0.198119th
Success rate46.6%33rd46.4%125th
Explosiveness1.4273rd1.23769th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate46.4%36th46.5%127th
Rushing success rate44.4%62nd46.6%115th
Passing success rate48.8%20th46.4%123rd
Explosive run rate19.1%6th17.9%131st
Explosive pass rate9.7%83rd11.6%106th
Line yards / carry3.4419th3.35124th
Opportunity rate44.8%9th39.5%91st
Stuff rate16.2%56th14.8%108th
Sack rate6.7%100th4.9%88th
3rd-down conversion46.6%27th46.2%122nd
Red-zone TD rate91.7%1st56.7%59th
Havoc rate10.2%12th12.3%103rd
Box score · season totals
Points / game34.131st29.3107th
Yards / game455.418th442.5132nd
Yards / play6.7011th6.00118th
Pass yards / game226.072nd282.1134th
Yards / pass att.8.2033rd7.84113th
Completion %68.3%16th64.6%109th
Rush yards / game229.47th160.494th
Yards / carry6.003rd4.5298th
3rd-down conv. %44.5%32nd43.9%121st
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)0.7515th1.5032nd
Sacks / game (allowed · made)2.1285th2.2552nd
Penalty yards / game59.884th50.0102nd

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
7.2
121st of 138
YAC per catch
6.6
15th of 138
Deep shots (20+)
9%
131st of 138
Shotgun
97%
58th of 138
No-huddle
66%
67th of 138
QB pressured
14%
63rd of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
12%
101st of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
6.2
15th of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws215 throws charted

68% comp7.2 avg. depth6.6 YAC/catch9% 20+ air yds13–3 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 20 throws (9%), 15 caught (75%), 81 yds, 4.0 per throw2075% · 81yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 14 throws (7%), 10 caught (71%), 90 yds, 6.4 per throw1471% · 90yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 16 throws (7%), 14 caught (88%), 107 yds, 6.7 per throw1688% · 107yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 14 throws (7%), 7 caught (50%), 118 yds, 8.4 per throw1450% · 118yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 3 caught (50%), 114 yds, 19.0 per throw650% · 114yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 1 caught (25%), 24 yds, 6.0 per throw425% · 24yLeft, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (2%), 3 caught (60%), 147 yds, 29.4 per throw560% · 147yMiddle, Behind air yards: 6 throws (3%), 6 caught (100%), 33 yds, 5.5 per throw6100% · 33yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 12 throws (6%), 10 caught (83%), 91 yds, 7.6 per throw1283% · 91yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 14 throws (7%), 9 caught (64%), 80 yds, 5.7 per throw1464% · 80yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 6 caught (86%), 126 yds, 18.0 per throw786% · 126yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 5 caught (100%), 142 yds, 28.4 per throw5100% · 142yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 1 throws (0%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 1 throws (0%), 1 caught (100%), 56 yds, 56.0 per throw1100% · 56yRight, Behind air yards: 14 throws (7%), 13 caught (93%), 66 yds, 4.7 per throw1493% · 66yRight, 0–4 air yards: 32 throws (15%), 24 caught (75%), 198 yds, 6.2 per throw3275% · 198yRight, 5–9 air yards: 17 throws (8%), 11 caught (65%), 94 yds, 5.5 per throw1765% · 94yRight, 10–14 air yards: 14 throws (7%), 6 caught (43%), 80 yds, 5.7 per throw1443% · 80yRight, 15–19 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 1 caught (25%), 17 yds, 4.3 per throw425% · 17yRight, 20–29 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 2 caught (29%), 88 yds, 12.6 per throw729% · 88yRight, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 39 yds, 19.5 per throw250% · 39y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on276 throws charted

64% comp8.1 avg. depth6.2 YAC/catch12% 20+ air yds11–6 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 15 throws (5%), 14 caught (93%), 155 yds, 10.3 per throw1593% · 155yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 30 throws (11%), 25 caught (83%), 174 yds, 5.8 per throw3083% · 174yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 18 throws (7%), 12 caught (67%), 103 yds, 5.7 per throw1867% · 103yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 9 throws (3%), 6 caught (67%), 78 yds, 8.7 per throw967% · 78yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 11 throws (4%), 3 caught (27%), 57 yds, 5.2 per throw1127% · 57yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 1 caught (14%), 28 yds, 4.0 per throw714% · 28yLeft, 30+ air yards: 6 throws (2%), 4 caught (67%), 164 yds, 27.3 per throw667% · 164yMiddle, Behind air yards: 7 throws (3%), 6 caught (86%), 21 yds, 3.0 per throw786% · 21yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 14 throws (5%), 9 caught (64%), 82 yds, 5.9 per throw1464% · 82yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 20 throws (7%), 15 caught (75%), 173 yds, 8.7 per throw2075% · 173yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 6 throws (2%), 4 caught (67%), 92 yds, 15.3 per throw667% · 92yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 3 caught (60%), 68 yds, 13.6 per throw560% · 68yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 6 throws (2%), 5 caught (83%), 182 yds, 30.3 per throw683% · 182yMiddle, 30+ air yards: noneRight, Behind air yards: 27 throws (10%), 23 caught (85%), 127 yds, 4.7 per throw2785% · 127yRight, 0–4 air yards: 28 throws (10%), 16 caught (57%), 152 yds, 5.4 per throw2857% · 152yRight, 5–9 air yards: 26 throws (9%), 19 caught (73%), 172 yds, 6.6 per throw2673% · 172yRight, 10–14 air yards: 16 throws (6%), 5 caught (31%), 102 yds, 6.4 per throw1631% · 102yRight, 15–19 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 6 caught (60%), 106 yds, 10.6 per throw1060% · 106yRight, 20–29 air yards: 8 throws (3%), 2 caught (25%), 61 yds, 7.6 per throw825% · 61yRight, 30+ air yards: 7 throws (3%), 2 caught (29%), 68 yds, 9.7 per throw729% · 68y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction277 carries

Left
22%
8.1 YPC · 64% succ.
Middle
55%
6.1 YPC · 47% succ.
Right
23%
7.9 YPC · 60% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced259 carries

Left
16%
7.1 YPC · 51% succ.
Middle
65%
4.4 YPC · 36% succ.
Right
19%
5.3 YPC · 51% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Scott Satterfield

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
4JC French IVQBSR6' 1"205Roswell, GA
5Samaj JonesQBJR5' 11"217Philadelphia, PA
10Liam O'BrienQBSR6' 0"210Boulder, CO
12Brooks GoodmanQBFR6' 2"212Atlanta, GA
15Will KocherQBSR6' 2"205Kings Mills, OH
22JJ MillerQBJR6' 0"185Amelia, OH
3Cole TabbRBJR5' 8"200Fort Walton Beach, FL
6Gi'Bran PayneRBSR5' 10"208Cincinnati, OH
7Zylan PerryRBSR5' 11"210Franklin, LA
13Zion JohnsonRBSO5' 8"192Covington, GA
25James LewisRBJR6' 0"200Bloomfield, IN
26Jayzon ThompsonRBFR5' 11"195Knoxville, TN
0Isaiah JohnsonWRJR5' 11"184Fort Walton Beach, FL
2Larenzo FennerWRSR6' 2"183Independence, MO
9Malachi HenryWRSR6' 0"205Van Buren, AR
11JV GibsonWRSR6' 2"208Opelousas, LA
14Elijah JonesWRJR5' 11"195Norristown, PA
16Flynn SchieleWRSR6' 4"210West Linn, OR
17H'eij JacksonWRFR6' 4"206New Orleans, LA
18Giyahni KontosisWRSO6' 1"205Beltsville, MD
19Dadrien WallerWRFR6' 3"205Guntersville, AL
20Joshua SmithWRFR6' 5"205Columbus, OH
27Taizaun BurnsWRSO5' 10"175Columbus, OH
37Ryan TalebWRJR5' 7"175Warner Robins, GA
39Christian MoultonWRSO5' 10"179Powell, OH
89Pierce AyersWRSO5' 10"185Alexandria, VA
82Ka'Maurri SmithTESO6' 5"252Dayton, OH
84Gavin GregoryTEFR6' 7"255Alliance, OH
85Lyviel WatersTEJR6' 2"245Cincinnati, OH
86Kellen DavisTEJR6' 3"248Middletown, OH
87Gavin GroverTEJR6' 6"255Lewis Center, OH
50Evan TengesdahlOLSR6' 3"325Dayton, OH
52Austin HoaneOLFR6' 5"295Cookeville, TN
55Solomon MathisOLFR6' 5"275Hephzibah, GA
63Zac ClarkeOLJR6' 6"312Plainfield, IL
66Xavier LozowickiOLSR6' 5"320Ridley Park, PA
67Luke GroverOLFR6' 5"308Lewis Center, OH
69JP SchrieberOLJR6' 2"305Berwyn, PA
70Cray PaichOLSO6' 5"315Northbrook, IL
71Judea MilonOLSR6' 4"300Killeen, TX
72Nolan LatulippeOLSR6' 8"310Aylmer, Canada
73Aiden PastorizaOLJR6' 6"315Jackson, MI
74Joe CottonOLSR6' 6"320Sioux Falls, SD
75Marcus McGregorOLSO6' 3"312West Des Moines, IA
76Zach TaylorOLSO6' 3"315Kingsland, GA
77Taran TyoOLSR6' 3"325Greenville, OH
78Grant EdgingtonOLSR6' 4"307Madeira, OH
79Luke CollinsOLFR6' 5"305Gahanna, OH
4Marquaze ParkerDLJR6' 3"270West Memphis, AR
11Chidera OtutuDLJR6' 1"300Pflugerville, TX
26Cam RoetherfordDLSR6' 3"280Detroit, MI
88CD McFeeDLSO6' 4"312Elkhart, IN
90Darrius SimmonsDLFR6' 3"300Cairo, GA
92Elijah GunnDLSR6' 0"307LaGrange, GA
94Juan BatesDLFR6' 3"290Mason, OH
95Josh HoughDLSR6' 2"335Beaver Falls, PA
96Nathan NunnDLJR6' 2"282Medina, OH
97Kamron NealDLSO6' 2"268Fort Myers, FL
99Jonathan RuloDLFR6' 1"320Belleville, IL
3Antwan Peek Jr.LBSR6' 1"223Cincinnati, OH
5Marqavious SaboorLBJR5' 11"190Decatur, GA
12Filip MaciorowskiLBSR6' 3"235Carol Stream, IL
15Jamari JohnsonLBSO5' 10"175Birmingham, AL
22Jonathan ThompsonLBSR6' 2"228Columbus, OH
31Simeon ColemanLBJR5' 11"225Seat Pleasant, MD
33George LeiboldLBJR6' 1"220Sarasota, FL
35Drew RobinsonLBJR6' 2"195Clarksville, OH
44Montay WeedonLBJR6' 0"217Silver Spring, MD
45Jaxon NewtonLBFR6' 3"210Anniston, AL
52Ronan CasanovaLBSR5' 10"225Middletown, OH
0Jacob FinleyCBSR6' 0"190Birmingham, AL
6Zay JohnsonCBJR6' 2"185Clinton, SC
14KK MeierCBSR6' 0"205Lubbock, TX
21Jamarion McKinneyCBFR6' 2"195Greenville, SC
25Daniel JamesCBJR5' 10"183Powder Springs, GA
29Kameron HurstCBFR6' 0"166St. Louis, MO
2MJ CannonSSR6' 3"213Evanston, IL
7Ty GoodwillSJR6' 3"195Prichard, AL
18Jasper BeelerSSR6' 1"194Farmington, MI
19CJ JonesSSO5' 9"195Chicago, IL
20CJ CriteSSO6' 1"207Lincolnton, GA
27Markell TaylorSFR5' 11"210Dallas, GA
30D'Angelo HutchinsonSSR6' 3"200St. Petersburg, FL
32Landen SchaeferSSO6' 0"185Cincinnati, OH
46Xavier StarksSFR5' 11"205Birmingham, AL
93Max LemastersPKSR5' 6"175Cincinnati, OH
99Stephen RusnakPKSR6' 0"185Clarkston, MI
31Max FletcherPSR6' 6"190Melbourne, Australia
35Dino BeslagicPSR6' 4"203Santa Clara, CA
41Kenny BakerLSFR6' 0"218Cincinnati, OH
48Eli SteinLSSR6' 3"225Cambridge, WI
10Patrick BauerEDGESR6' 3"235Mount Prospect, IL
17Brian Simms IIIEDGESR6' 3"240Baltimore, MD
24Terrell HolcombEDGESO6' 1"230Gahanna, OH
34Myles HarrisonEDGESO6' 2"235Pickerington, OH
54Thomas JohnsonEDGESR6' 3"255Lawndale, CA
60Lance DawsonEDGEFR6' 4"258Avon, OH
82James EarlyEDGESO6' 3"257Fort Wayne, IN
91Drew LoganEDGESR6' 4"270North Canton, OH
93Keegan HornEDGEFR6' 3"235Hueytown, AL

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2021 (+14.5, #5) · worst: 2017 (-10.5, #112)
-100+10FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#58
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far5-32-3#55+4.6+4.6+0.1
20257-65-4#58+2.0+1.8+0.1
20245-73-6#70+0.1-1.4+1.5
20233-91-8#93-4.9-2.9-2.0
20229-46-2#29+5.4+0.2+5.2
202113-18-0#5+14.5+6.0+8.5
20209-16-0#6+14.1+4.2+9.8
201911-37-1#26+8.1-0.2+8.2
201811-26-2#31+6.0-1.2+7.2
20174-82-6#112-10.5-6.9-3.6
20164-81-7#101-7.7-7.6-0.1
20157-64-4#65+0.7+4.3-3.6
20149-47-1#48+3.0+4.6-1.6

Cincinnati's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Nov 3, 12:25 PM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →