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Big 12 · 2026

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Head coach Joey McGuire · Galaxy Stadium
7-14-1 in conference
TDC Rank
#12
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
+17.8
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
+10.7
11th in FBS
Defense
+7.1
26th in FBS
Schedule so far
-1.1
62nd toughest
Projected
10.0-2.0
bowl-eligible >99%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

+17.8 now, +23.1 preseason · down 9 spots since preseason
0+10+20FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8Wk 9#12

Final record odds

10.0-2.0 expected · most likely 10-2 (44%)
8-422%9-344%10-230%11-1

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Will Hammond
QB · JR · 72nd in FBS
1561yds
6 TD · 6 INT
Rushing
J'Koby Williams
RB · 18th in FBS
794yds
100 car · 6 TD
Receiving
Kenny Johnson
WR · SR · 53rd in FBS
548yds
35 rec · 2 TD
Tackles
Austin Romaine
LB · SR · 43rd in FBS
66tkl
4 TFL
Sacks
A.J. Holmes Jr.
DL · SR · 16th in FBS
6.5sacks
6 hurries
Interceptions
John Curry
LB · SR · 16th in FBS
3INT
1 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 5vsAbilene Christian FCSW 33–10 ›+5.1—FS1
2Sep 12@62Oregon StateW 35–24 ›+17.1—CBS
3Sep 18vs32HoustonCONFW 28–26 ›+10.1—FOX
4Sep 26vs129Sam HoustonW 49–14 ›+5.2—TNT
5Oct 3@63ColoradoCONFW 29–7 ›+27.9—Fox
6—Bye
7Oct 17vs53Arizona StateCONFW 53–25 ›+26.4—Fox
8Oct 24@55CincinnatiCONFL 24–37 ›-4.7—FS1
9Oct 31vs22ArizonaCONFW 34–26 ›+18.3—ESPN
10Nov 7vs69West VirginiaCONFTexas Tech −21.0 · o/u 68.8—92%ESPN
11Nov 14@35Oklahoma StateCONFTexas Tech −4.9 · o/u 69.1—63%
12Nov 21@34BaylorCONFTexas Tech −3.9 · o/u 53.7—60%
13Nov 26vs46TCUCONFTexas Tech −15.1 · o/u 45.1—84%ESPN

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.15260th-0.01819th
Success rate46.2%37th37.3%24th
Explosiveness1.141120th1.325112th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate47.0%31st38.0%32nd
Rushing success rate49.0%21st33.0%10th
Passing success rate44.8%42nd41.3%80th
Explosive run rate18.6%8th12.7%62nd
Explosive pass rate8.4%108th6.7%13th
Line yards / carry3.3233rd2.7018th
Opportunity rate43.3%18th29.9%7th
Stuff rate16.3%59th21.3%25th
Sack rate5.0%64th6.6%43rd
3rd-down conversion39.6%84th38.0%58th
Red-zone TD rate50.0%113th35.0%6th
Havoc rate16.7%130th15.0%42nd
Box score · season totals
Points / game35.623rd21.142nd
Yards / game425.835th379.994th
Yards / play6.0643rd5.1156th
Pass yards / game218.881st285.0135th
Yards / pass att.7.4073rd6.9760th
Completion %64.8%47th64.2%105th
Rush yards / game207.018th94.913th
Yards / carry5.3015th3.1419th
3rd-down conv. %38.2%87th38.2%73rd
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)1.62113th1.7514th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)1.6248th3.257th
Penalty yards / game56.471st52.391st

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
9.6
35th of 138
YAC per catch
4.7
112th of 138
Deep shots (20+)
18%
20th of 138
Shotgun
99%
4th of 138
No-huddle
76%
49th of 138
QB pressured
11%
96th of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
15%
54th of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
5.2
67th of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws227 throws charted

65% comp9.6 avg. depth4.7 YAC/catch18% 20+ air yds10–7 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 8 throws (4%), 7 caught (88%), 57 yds, 7.1 per throw888% · 57yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 16 throws (7%), 13 caught (81%), 130 yds, 8.1 per throw1681% · 130yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 13 throws (6%), 11 caught (85%), 76 yds, 5.8 per throw1385% · 76yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 9 throws (4%), 7 caught (78%), 93 yds, 10.3 per throw978% · 93yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 3 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw30% · 0yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 6 caught (60%), 175 yds, 17.5 per throw1060% · 175yLeft, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw30% · 0yMiddle, Behind air yards: 5 throws (2%), 4 caught (80%), 15 yds, 3.0 per throw580% · 15yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 12 throws (5%), 7 caught (58%), 54 yds, 4.5 per throw1258% · 54yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 20 throws (9%), 15 caught (75%), 164 yds, 8.2 per throw2075% · 164yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 7 caught (70%), 107 yds, 10.7 per throw1070% · 107yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 4 caught (67%), 78 yds, 13.0 per throw667% · 78yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 1 throws (0%), 1 caught (100%), 18 yds, 18.0 per throw1100% · 18yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw20% · 0yRight, Behind air yards: 25 throws (11%), 21 caught (84%), 93 yds, 3.7 per throw2584% · 93yRight, 0–4 air yards: 14 throws (6%), 11 caught (79%), 79 yds, 5.6 per throw1479% · 79yRight, 5–9 air yards: 28 throws (12%), 22 caught (79%), 186 yds, 6.6 per throw2879% · 186yRight, 10–14 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 5 caught (50%), 66 yds, 6.6 per throw1050% · 66yRight, 15–19 air yards: 9 throws (4%), 2 caught (22%), 38 yds, 4.2 per throw922% · 38yRight, 20–29 air yards: 18 throws (8%), 5 caught (28%), 163 yds, 9.1 per throw1828% · 163yRight, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (2%), 2 caught (40%), 70 yds, 14.0 per throw540% · 70y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on310 throws charted

64% comp7.8 avg. depth5.2 YAC/catch10% 20+ air yds17–13 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 24 throws (8%), 18 caught (75%), 110 yds, 4.6 per throw2475% · 110yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 23 throws (7%), 17 caught (74%), 98 yds, 4.3 per throw2374% · 98yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 22 throws (7%), 15 caught (68%), 117 yds, 5.3 per throw2268% · 117yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 16 throws (5%), 6 caught (38%), 84 yds, 5.3 per throw1638% · 84yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 9 throws (3%), 5 caught (56%), 111 yds, 12.3 per throw956% · 111yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 4 throws (1%), 2 caught (50%), 44 yds, 11.0 per throw450% · 44yLeft, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw40% · 0yMiddle, Behind air yards: 7 throws (2%), 6 caught (86%), 9 yds, 1.3 per throw786% · 9yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 20 throws (6%), 15 caught (75%), 129 yds, 6.5 per throw2075% · 129yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 14 throws (5%), 11 caught (79%), 100 yds, 7.1 per throw1479% · 100yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 14 throws (5%), 9 caught (64%), 130 yds, 9.3 per throw1464% · 130yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 9 throws (3%), 5 caught (56%), 122 yds, 13.6 per throw956% · 122yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw20% · 0yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 1 throws (0%), 1 caught (100%), 52 yds, 52.0 per throw1100% · 52yRight, Behind air yards: 24 throws (8%), 21 caught (88%), 92 yds, 3.8 per throw2488% · 92yRight, 0–4 air yards: 34 throws (11%), 27 caught (79%), 173 yds, 5.1 per throw3479% · 173yRight, 5–9 air yards: 32 throws (10%), 24 caught (75%), 184 yds, 5.8 per throw3275% · 184yRight, 10–14 air yards: 24 throws (8%), 12 caught (50%), 160 yds, 6.7 per throw2450% · 160yRight, 15–19 air yards: 10 throws (3%), 4 caught (40%), 118 yds, 11.8 per throw1040% · 118yRight, 20–29 air yards: 8 throws (3%), 3 caught (38%), 98 yds, 12.3 per throw838% · 98yRight, 30+ air yards: 9 throws (3%), 5 caught (56%), 324 yds, 36.0 per throw956% · 324y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction288 carries

Left
20%
7.9 YPC · 58% succ.
Middle
57%
5.1 YPC · 42% succ.
Right
23%
6.1 YPC · 55% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced209 carries

Left
23%
4.0 YPC · 38% succ.
Middle
54%
4.5 YPC · 33% succ.
Right
23%
4.7 YPC · 42% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Joey McGuire

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
4Thomas CastellanosQBSR5' 10"190Waycross, GA
10Lloyd Jones IIIQBSO6' 4"215Hitchcock, TX
12Stephen CannonQBFR6' 2"205Savannah, GA
15Will HammondQBJR6' 2"210Austin, TX
16Holden PhillipsQBSO6' 1"205Lubbock, TX
18Kirk FrancisQBSR6' 2"205Tulsa, OK
0Quinten JoynerRBSR5' 11"220Austin, TX
8Cameron DickeyRBJR5' 10"215Austin, TX
28Ashton RowdenRBFR5' 11"205Texarkana, TX
33Loic TshibanguRBSR6' 0"210Brussels, Belgium
35Michael Henderson IIIRBSO5' 9"185Dallas, TX
1Micah HudsonWRJR6' 0"205Temple, TX
2Kenny JohnsonWRSR6' 1"200York, PA
3Coy EakinWRSR6' 2"205Stephenville, TX
6Jalen JonesWRSR5' 8"180Birmingham, AL
9Donte Lee Jr.WRSR6' 3"190Baltimore, MD
11Malcolm SimmonsWRJR6' 0"180Montgomery, AL
13Chase CampbellWRFR6' 0"200Lubbock, TX
14Bryson JonesWRSO6' 3"195Frisco, TX
17Leyton StoneWRSO6' 3"200Lubbock, TX
19Michael DeverWRSO6' 1"195Lubbock, TX
21Tristian GentryWRSO6' 0"180Stephenville, TX
80Kai PowellWRSR5' 11"185Spring, TX
84Imari JehielWRFR6' 0"190Forney, TX
88Quintaelyn JoynerWRSO6' 0"205Austin, TX
5Matt LudwigTEFR6' 4"255Billings, MT
7Terrance Carter Jr.TESR6' 2"245Killeen, TX
83Jack EsparzaTESR6' 4"245Austin, TX
85Jett CarpenterTESR6' 3"255Medford, OR
89Jason LlewellynTESR6' 5"250Aledo, TX
50Patrick McMathOLSO6' 4"290Katy, TX
51Felix OjoOLFR6' 6"295Mansfield, TX
52Cash ClevelandOLJR6' 2"300Rockwall, TX
53Holton HendrixOLJR6' 4"310Lubbock, TX
54Jordan ChurchOLSR6' 4"320Fort Myers, FL
56Jerald MaysOLFR6' 4"315Pflugerville, TX
61Connor CartyOLSO6' 4"305Prosper, TX
66Jackson HildebrandOLJR6' 2"295San Antonio, TX
68Ren BrownOLSO6' 4"300Stanton, NE
70Jacob PontonOLJR6' 8"315Dripping Springs, TX
71Bryce GilmoreOLFR6' 4"285Prosper, TX
73Danilo GuberinichOLSO6' 5"295Ann Arbor, MI
74Daniel SillOLSR6' 5"310College Station, TX
75Garin MaleyOLSO6' 5"295Omaha, NE
76Jacob CrowOLFR6' 9"310Knoxville, TN
77Elias GillenOLSO6' 6"315Rapid City, SD
78Ellis DavisOLJR6' 7"305Prosper, TX
79Howard SampsonOLSR6' 8"330Houston, TX
1Julien LaventureDLSR6' 0"290Upper Darby, PA
10A.J. Holmes Jr.DLSR6' 3"300Houston, TX
51Jayden CofieldDLSR6' 2"330Austin, TX
90Ayden JohnsonDLFR6' 1"340Sulphur Springs, TX
91Krush JohnsonDLFR6' 2"300Amarillo, TX
92Bryce ButlerDLSR6' 4"320Toronto, CA
93Dylan SingletonDLSO6' 5"300New Iberia, LA
98Mateen IbirogbaDLSR6' 4"300Clarksburg, MD
6John CurryLBSR6' 2"235Lubbock, TX
8Jamond MathisLBSR6' 1"250St. Louis, MO
9Corey Platt Jr.LBSR6' 1"215Little Rock, AR
13Ben RobertsLBSR6' 3"245Haslet, TX
15Austin RomaineLBSR6' 2"240Hillsboro, MO
20Adam TrickLBSR6' 4"250Dayton, OH
31Cord NolanLBFR6' 0"220Bixby, OK
32LaDamion GuytonLBFR6' 4"235Savannah, GA
33Ansel NedoreLBSR6' 3"260Round Rock, TX
34Kaegan AshLBFR6' 0"210Mount Enterprise, TX
35Adam HillLBJR6' 1"230Albany, TX
36Demarcus MarksLBFR6' 3"215Houston, TX
40Wesley SmithLBSR5' 10"225Midland, TX
43Chris LemonsLBSR6' 2"215Prosper, TX
45Brock GolwasLBSO6' 1"240Flower Mound, TX
56Amarie FlemingLBJR6' 2"230Mayo, FL
86Sean RobinsonLBSO6' 5"225Greenbrae, CA
95Christian BruceLBFR6' 3"270Alpharetta, GA
97Charles Anderson Jr.LBJR6' 6"275Houston, TX
99Jojo JohnsonLBSR6' 2"290Salt Lake City, UT
4Davin MartinCBSR6' 2"185Houston, TX
12Tarrion GrantCBJR6' 2"190Sumter, SC
14Brice PollockCBSR6' 0"195Snellville, GA
16Ashton HamptonCBJR6' 0"175Pearland, TX
17Noah LewisCBFR5' 10"180Terrell, TX
18S'Vioarean MartinCBFR6' 2"200Palestine, TX
27Amier BoydCBSR6' 2"185Phoenix, AZ
29Luke HamiltonCBFR5' 11"185Fayetteville, NC
0Mikal Harrison-PilotSJR6' 0"205Temple, TX
3Peyton MorganSJR6' 0"185Round Rock, TX
5Oliver Miles IIISJR6' 2"190El Campo, TX
7Brenden JordanSSR6' 0"205Mansfield, TX
21Miquel Dingle Jr.SSR6' 2"220Charleston, SC
22Marcus Ramon-EdwardsSSR6' 3"225Lubbock, TX
23Maddox QuillerSFR6' 0"205Pflugerville, TX
24Malik EsquerraSJR6' 3"210Killeen, TX
26Aaron BradshawSFR6' 3"190Crowley, TX
28Braylan McDonaldSSO6' 0"190Terrell, TX
28Jordan RogersSSR5' 10"180Bellmead, TX
30Jamarn Grant IISJR6' 2"205Fort Worth, TX
39Jacob HandPKSR6' 1"180Mansfield, TX
48Stone HarringtonPKSR6' 3"210Colleyville, TX
37Ian HersheyPSR5' 11"185Pocatello, ID
49Will KarollPSR6' 4"215Mosman, Australia

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2025 (+17.9, #4) · worst: 2014 (-4.8, #83)
0+10+20FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#4
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far7-14-1#12+17.8+10.7+7.1
202512-28-1#4+17.9+7.6+10.3
20248-56-3#62+0.8+6.8-6.0
20237-65-4#40+4.2+1.7+2.5
20228-55-4#32+5.2+5.7-0.5
20217-63-6#68-0.1+2.7-2.8
20204-63-6#93-4.1+2.2-6.3
20194-82-7#60-0.2+1.8-2.0
20185-73-6#46+3.3+4.8-1.4
20176-73-6#56+1.7+5.5-3.8
20165-73-6#61+0.3+11.4-11.1
20157-64-5#66+0.7+13.4-12.7
20144-82-7#83-4.8+4.2-9.0

Texas Tech's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Nov 3, 12:25 PM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →