
The TDC Rating after every week of the season
Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result / TDC line | Game score | Win chance | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | vs Northern Arizona FCS | W 38–19 | -5.8 | — | ESPN+ |
| 2 | Sep 6 | @ 71Mississippi State | L 20–24 | -1.3 | — | ESPN2 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | vs 62Texas State | W 34–15 | +17.6 | — | TNT |
| 4 | Sep 20 | @ 70BaylorCONF | W 27–24 | +5.7 | — | FOX |
| 5 | Sep 26 | vs 34TCUCONF | W 27–24 | +6.0 | — | FOX |
| 6 | — | Bye | ||||
| 7 | Oct 11 | @ 7UtahCONF | L 10–42 | -9.3 | — | ESPN |
| 8 | Oct 18 | vs 4Texas TechCONF | W 26–22 | +19.1 | — | FOX |
| 9 | Oct 25 | vs 52HoustonCONF | L 16–24 | -7.9 | — | ESPN2 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | @ 35Iowa StateCONF | W 24–19 | +13.4 | — | TNT |
| 11 | — | Bye | ||||
| 12 | Nov 15 | vs 87West VirginiaCONF | W 25–23 | -4.3 | — | TNT |
| 13 | Nov 22 | @ 86ColoradoCONF | W 42–17 | +24.0 | — | ESPN2 |
| 14 | Nov 28 | vs 29ArizonaCONF | L 7–23 | -11.6 | — | FOX |
| Bowls | Dec 31 | vs 44DukeNEUTRAL | L 39–42 | +1.3 | — | CBS |
Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted
| Stat | Offense | FBS rank | Defense (allowed) | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play) | ||||
| Success rate | 41.2% | 94th | 40.7% | 52nd |
| Rushing success rate | 43.6% | 81st | 41.4% | 50th |
| Passing success rate | 38.7% | 101st | 40.0% | 53rd |
| Explosive run rate | 18.3% | 9th | 10.9% | 23rd |
| Explosive pass rate | 9.0% | 94th | 7.6% | 17th |
| Line yards / carry | 2.91 | 100th | 2.82 | 29th |
| Opportunity rate | 38.7% | 69th | 33.1% | 13th |
| Stuff rate | 18.6% | 96th | 20.1% | 24th |
| Sack rate | 5.1% | 62nd | 6.6% | 28th |
| 3rd-down conversion | 33.5% | 126th | 37.2% | 41st |
| Red-zone TD rate | 51.2% | 105th | 46.8% | 24th |
| Havoc rate | 11.9% | 82nd | 13.5% | 27th |
| Box score · season totals | ||||
| Points / game | 33.9 | 22nd | 24.6 | 58th |
| Yards / game | 417.3 | 30th | 357.5 | 57th |
| Yards / play | 5.69 | 50th | 4.94 | 36th |
| Pass yards / game | 223.7 | 69th | 214.8 | 89th |
| Yards / pass att. | 6.76 | 91st | 6.61 | 44th |
| Completion % | 58.4% | 107th | 60.4% | 49th |
| Rush yards / game | 193.6 | 27th | 124.0 | 31st |
| Yards / carry | 5.05 | 25th | 3.61 | 30th |
| 3rd-down conv. % | 33.2% | 121st | — | — |
| Turnovers / game (lost · forced) | 1.62 | 107th | — | — |
| Sacks / game (allowed · made) | 2.00 | 83rd | 2.62 | 23rd |
| Penalty yards / game | 57.8 | 90th | — | — |
60 players who recorded a stat in 2025 (from box scores)
Final ratings for 2025, built with the same model as the current season. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. All 2025 power rankings →