ACC · 2025 · Final

North Carolina Tar Heels 2025

4-82-6 in conference
Final TDC rank
#97
of 136 FBS teams
Rating
-5.9
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
-5.9
118th in FBS
Defense
0.0
65th in FBS
Schedule
-2.2
76th toughest
Preseason
-0.2
rating going in

2025 Season

The TDC Rating after every week of the season

Rating by week

-5.9 now, -0.2 preseason · down 22 spots since preseason
-10-50FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8Wk 9Wk 10Wk 11Wk 12Wk 13Wk 14Wk 15Wk 16Bowls#97

Results

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 1vs34TCUL 14–48-24.5—ESPN
2Sep 6@135CharlotteW 20–3+1.9—ESPN+
3Sep 13vsRichmond FCSW 41–6+3.0—ACC Network
4Sep 20@76UCFL 9–34-22.9—FOX
5—Bye
6Oct 4vs36ClemsonCONFL 10–38-22.7—ESPN
7—Bye
8Oct 17@82CaliforniaCONFL 18–21-2.8—ESPN
9Oct 25vs30VirginiaCONFL 16–17+2.8—ACC Network
10Oct 31@106SyracuseCONFW 27–10+12.8—ESPN
11Nov 8vs93StanfordCONFW 20–15-2.5—CW
12Nov 15@57Wake ForestCONFL 12–28-11.0—CW
13Nov 22vs44DukeCONFL 25–32-5.5—ACC Network
14Nov 29@42NC StateCONFL 19–42-15.8—ACC Network

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate38.3%117th41.5%63rd
Rushing success rate37.5%124th43.2%68th
Passing success rate39.1%97th39.9%52nd
Explosive run rate13.1%82nd10.4%16th
Explosive pass rate7.0%125th8.2%28th
Line yards / carry2.83116th2.9446th
Opportunity rate34.4%122nd33.1%13th
Stuff rate17.2%69th15.1%102nd
Sack rate5.9%88th6.9%25th
3rd-down conversion39.6%85th42.7%92nd
Red-zone TD rate41.9%126th58.3%77th
Havoc rate12.1%87th11.0%91st
Box score · season totals
Points / game19.3122nd24.760th
Yards / game288.8131st336.938th
Yards / play4.79118th4.7624th
Pass yards / game183.5111th191.744th
Yards / pass att.6.20123rd6.5839th
Completion %63.9%48th63.6%94th
Rush yards / game105.3122nd125.735th
Yards / carry3.65110th3.4824th
3rd-down conv. %36.9%96th——
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)1.2569th——
Sacks / game (allowed · made)1.8363rd2.6720th
Penalty yards / game62.6111th——

Players

65 players who recorded a stat in 2025 (from box scores)

65 players

Final ratings for 2025, built with the same model as the current season. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. All 2025 power rankings →