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ACC · 2026

North Carolina Tar Heels

Head coach Bill Belichick · Kenan Stadium
4-42-3 in conference
TDC Rank
#50
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
+5.0
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
+2.2
56th in FBS
Defense
+2.8
47th in FBS
Schedule so far
+6.3
12th toughest
Projected
6.0-6.0
bowl-eligible 69%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

+5.0 now, -7.1 preseason · up 40 spots since preseason
-10-50+5FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8Wk 9#50

Final record odds

6.0-6.0 expected · most likely 6-6 (39%)
6%4-825%5-739%6-624%7-55%8-4

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Billy Edwards Jr.
QB · SR · 33rd in FBS
1871yds
15 TD · 5 INT
Rushing
Benjamin Hall
RB · JR · 220th in FBS
296yds
60 car · 0 TD
Receiving
Jordan Shipp
WR · JR · 47th in FBS
587yds
45 rec · 3 TD
Tackles
Derek McDonald
LB · SR · 5th in FBS
82tkl
2 TFL
Sacks
Xavier Lewis
DL · SO · 7th in FBS
7sacks
5 hurries
Interceptions
Greg Smith III
DB · SO · 16th in FBS
3INT
4 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Aug 29vs46TCUNEUTRALW 15–10 ›+11.3—ESPN
2Sep 12vsEast Tennessee State FCSW 35–3 ›+4.1—ACCNX
3Sep 19@54ClemsonCONFL 20–28 ›+0.3—ESPNEWS
4—Bye
5Oct 3vs1Notre DameL 26–37 ›+12.2—ESPN
6Oct 10@38PittsburghCONFW 21–17 ›+15.7—ESPN
7Oct 17@39DukeCONFW 24–20 ›+15.5—ESPN2
8Oct 24vs65SyracuseCONFL 30–31 ›-2.7—ACC Network
9Oct 31vs3MiamiCONFL 35–38 ›+18.1—ABC
10Nov 7@80UConnNorth Carolina −4.3 · o/u 56.7—61%CBSSN
11Nov 14vs15LouisvilleCONFLouisville −7.5 · o/u 61.5—31%
12Nov 21@47VirginiaCONFVirginia −4.6 · o/u 47.6—38%
13Nov 28vs67NC StateCONFNorth Carolina −6.9 · o/u 57.0—68%

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.14563rd+0.07559th
Success rate47.7%24th44.3%110th
Explosiveness1.114129th1.0685th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate48.1%23rd44.7%114th
Rushing success rate45.4%47th47.0%119th
Passing success rate50.4%15th42.4%94th
Explosive run rate13.2%80th8.2%9th
Explosive pass rate10.7%59th7.6%24th
Line yards / carry3.1763rd3.33120th
Opportunity rate39.5%66th40.5%108th
Stuff rate15.1%40th9.3%138th
Sack rate6.8%102nd5.1%81st
3rd-down conversion46.1%31st43.1%110th
Red-zone TD rate71.4%20th53.6%42nd
Havoc rate12.7%53rd11.2%123rd
Box score · season totals
Points / game25.888th23.057th
Yards / game344.8107th378.193rd
Yards / play5.5576th5.0955th
Pass yards / game236.859th225.089th
Yards / pass att.7.9045th6.6444th
Completion %63.1%66th65.3%116th
Rush yards / game108.0126th153.184th
Yards / carry3.60114th3.9869th
3rd-down conv. %44.2%34th44.2%123rd
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)1.3876th1.0097th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)2.38101st1.8882nd
Penalty yards / game32.44th52.391st

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
7.4
117th of 138
YAC per catch
6.5
20th of 138
Deep shots (20+)
8%
137th of 138
Shotgun
94%
78th of 138
No-huddle
12%
127th of 138
QB pressured
18%
21st of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
14%
78th of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
5.8
33rd of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws234 throws charted

63% comp7.4 avg. depth6.5 YAC/catch8% 20+ air yds16–5 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 15 throws (6%), 9 caught (60%), 69 yds, 4.6 per throw1560% · 69yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 21 throws (9%), 15 caught (71%), 144 yds, 6.9 per throw2171% · 144yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 20 throws (9%), 12 caught (60%), 134 yds, 6.7 per throw2060% · 134yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 12 throws (5%), 8 caught (67%), 92 yds, 7.7 per throw1267% · 92yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 2 caught (40%), 35 yds, 7.0 per throw540% · 35yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 2 caught (40%), 45 yds, 9.0 per throw540% · 45yLeft, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw20% · 0yMiddle, Behind air yards: 7 throws (3%), 4 caught (57%), 71 yds, 10.1 per throw757% · 71yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 17 throws (7%), 7 caught (41%), 51 yds, 3.0 per throw1741% · 51yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 22 throws (9%), 16 caught (73%), 154 yds, 7.0 per throw2273% · 154yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 17 throws (7%), 12 caught (71%), 188 yds, 11.1 per throw1771% · 188yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 5 caught (83%), 121 yds, 20.2 per throw683% · 121yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 3 throws (1%), 2 caught (67%), 60 yds, 20.0 per throw367% · 60yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw30% · 0yRight, Behind air yards: 19 throws (8%), 16 caught (84%), 159 yds, 8.4 per throw1984% · 159yRight, 0–4 air yards: 20 throws (9%), 16 caught (80%), 150 yds, 7.5 per throw2080% · 150yRight, 5–9 air yards: 19 throws (8%), 13 caught (68%), 117 yds, 6.2 per throw1968% · 117yRight, 10–14 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 5 caught (50%), 86 yds, 8.6 per throw1050% · 86yRight, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 3 caught (50%), 58 yds, 9.7 per throw650% · 58yRight, 20–29 air yards: 3 throws (1%), 2 caught (67%), 96 yds, 32.0 per throw367% · 96yRight, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 49 yds, 24.5 per throw250% · 49y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on262 throws charted

65% comp6.7 avg. depth5.8 YAC/catch11% 20+ air yds11–5 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 20 throws (8%), 18 caught (90%), 119 yds, 6.0 per throw2090% · 119yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 31 throws (12%), 24 caught (77%), 183 yds, 5.9 per throw3177% · 183yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 18 throws (7%), 14 caught (78%), 132 yds, 7.3 per throw1878% · 132yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 4 caught (40%), 63 yds, 6.3 per throw1040% · 63yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 2 caught (40%), 54 yds, 10.8 per throw540% · 54yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 3 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw30% · 0yLeft, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (1%), 1 caught (33%), 76 yds, 25.3 per throw333% · 76yMiddle, Behind air yards: 5 throws (2%), 3 caught (60%), 13 yds, 2.6 per throw560% · 13yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 21 throws (8%), 14 caught (67%), 100 yds, 4.8 per throw2167% · 100yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 11 throws (4%), 6 caught (55%), 62 yds, 5.6 per throw1155% · 62yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 2 caught (29%), 29 yds, 4.1 per throw729% · 29yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 2 caught (40%), 43 yds, 8.6 per throw540% · 43yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 3 throws (1%), 2 caught (67%), 68 yds, 22.7 per throw367% · 68yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 1 throws (0%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0yRight, Behind air yards: 28 throws (11%), 22 caught (79%), 131 yds, 4.7 per throw2879% · 131yRight, 0–4 air yards: 33 throws (13%), 25 caught (76%), 136 yds, 4.1 per throw3376% · 136yRight, 5–9 air yards: 26 throws (10%), 19 caught (73%), 170 yds, 6.5 per throw2673% · 170yRight, 10–14 air yards: 13 throws (5%), 10 caught (77%), 159 yds, 12.2 per throw1377% · 159yRight, 15–19 air yards: 3 throws (1%), 1 caught (33%), 17 yds, 5.7 per throw333% · 17yRight, 20–29 air yards: 11 throws (4%), 4 caught (36%), 136 yds, 12.4 per throw1136% · 136yRight, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (2%), 2 caught (40%), 79 yds, 15.8 per throw540% · 79y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction211 carries

Left
26%
5.8 YPC · 53% succ.
Middle
53%
4.6 YPC · 46% succ.
Right
21%
3.1 YPC · 39% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced283 carries

Left
25%
5.7 YPC · 56% succ.
Middle
53%
4.2 YPC · 49% succ.
Right
22%
5.1 YPC · 45% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Bill Belichick

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
3Travis BurgessQBFR6' 4"210Grayson, GA
8Miles O'NeillQBSO6' 5"220Marblehead, MA
9Billy Edwards Jr.QBSR6' 3"220Springfield, VA
10Au'Tori NewkirkQBFR6' 3"220Norfolk, VA
15DJ MazzoneQBSO6' 0"180Atlanta, GA
18Andres Miyares Jr.QBSO6' 1"190Miami, FL
0Demon JuneRBSO5' 11"225Jacksonville, NC
5Kaleb JacksonRBJR6' 0"240Baton Rouge, LA
7Benjamin HallRBJR5' 11"230Kennesaw, GA
20Crew DavisRBFR5' 11"200Fairfield, CT
23Charleston FrenchRBJR5' 9"200Amory, MS
27Jaylen McGillRBSO5' 10"220Spartanburg, SC
47Henry MartelloFBFR6' 4"250Culver, IN
1Jordan ShippWRJR6' 2"200Charlotte, NC
2Trech KekahunaWRJR5' 10"185Honolulu, HI
4Mason HumphreyWRSR6' 4"210Loganville, GA
6Dayton SneedWRJR6' 0"180Hermitage, TN
11Nathan LeacockWRJR6' 3"220Rolesville, NC
14C.J. SadlerWRFR5' 9"190Detroit, MI
16Zamaurious RobertsonWRFR6' 0"180Dillon, SC
17Nyqir HeltonWRFR5' 11"185Sicklerville, NJ
24Jaden JeffersonWRFR5' 9"165Oakland, CA
82Keeyun ChapmanWRFR6' 3"215Jackson, AL
45Jelani ThurmanTEJR6' 6"245Fairburn, GA
84Shamar EasterTEJR6' 5"230Ashdown, AR
85Dream RashadTEFR6' 5"240Buford, GA
87Carson SneedTEFR6' 6"240Nashville, TN
88Deems MayTESR6' 2"225Charlotte, NC
51Peter PesanskyOLSO6' 2"280Tampa, FL
52Rowan ByrneOLFR6' 5"300Bronxville, NY
54Jonah RodriguezOLJR6' 4"300San Diego, CA
55Brandon HomadyOLFR6' 3"300Cleveland, OH
56Christo KellyOLSR6' 4"310Wilmette, IL
57Will ConroyOLFR6' 2"300Valley View, OH
60Cristian AlvarezOLFR6' 4"300Woodcliff Lake, NJ
65Zion SmithOLFR6' 3"310Townsend, DE
66Jordan HallOLJR6' 8"310Columbus, OH
67Dujuan DavisOLFR6' 9"380Clearwater, FL
68Aidan BanfieldOLJR6' 3"300Buford, GA
70Byron NelsonOLFR6' 3"310Katy, TX
71Jacqawn McRoyOLSO6' 8"330Bessemer, AL
72Eidan BuchananOLSO6' 9"330Montgomery Village, MD
73J.B. ShabazzOLFR6' 5"320Winston-Salem, NC
74Nick FiumaraOLFR6' 4"310Foxborough, MA
75Andrew ThreattOLSR6' 3"320Chesterfield, SC
77Trey BlueOLFR6' 6"310Cary, NC
79Anthony HallOLFR6' 3"330Brookline, MA
0Isaiah JohnsonDLSR6' 2"320Camden, NJ
5Donovan Hoilette Jr.DLSR6' 4"245West Palm Beach, FL
9Melkart Abou JaoudeDLSR6' 5"260Newton, NJ
11Jaylen HarveyDLSO6' 2"245Gaithersburg, MD
14Tarvorise BrownDLJR6' 7"260Miami, FL
25Joseph MupoyiDLJR6' 5"260Kinshasa, Congo
29Zavion Griffin-HaynesDLFR6' 5"250Rolesville, NC
56Viliami MoalaDLFR6' 2"360West Valley City, UT
88Vodney ClevelandDLFR6' 3"310Montgomery, AL
89Emmanuel NwaiwuDLFR6' 5"270Chateauguay, Canada
90Xavier LewisDLSO6' 0"260Raleigh, NC
91Leroy JacksonDLSO6' 1"300Leesburg, GA
92Jimmy-Phrisco Alo-SuliafuDLFR6' 3"210Hauula, HI
93Trashawn RuffinDLFR6' 3"360Calypso, NC
94David Jackson IIIDLFR6' 2"260Washington, DC
96Nicco MaggioDLFR6' 1"295Buford, GA
97Trey GiddensDLFR6' 3"295Virginia Beach, VA
8Jonathan AgumaduLBSO6' 2"220Dallas, TX
10Peyton SeelmannLBJR6' 1"230Mechanicsville, VA
12Calvin ThomasLBFR6' 3"235Houston, TX
15Derek McDonaldLBSR6' 4"240Atlanta, GA
26DQ ForkpaLBFR6' 1"240Plymouth, MN
33Tyler HouserLBFR6' 2"225Sparta, NJ
35Ashton BlattLBFR6' 3"230Pittsburgh, PA
36Jayden Griffin-HaynesLBFR6' 2"210Rolesville, NC
42Jordan AvingerLBFR6' 1"225Orangeburg, SC
43Lantz PascalLBFR6' 1"240Fort Lauderdale, FL
44Jake BauerLBFR6' 1"235West Chester, PA
54Timir Hickman-CollinsLBSO6' 2"235Fort Mill, SC
95Daniel AndersonLBSO6' 1"240Memphis, TN
1Greg Smith IIIDBSO6' 4"215Riverview, FL
2Kaleb CostDBSR5' 11"195Atlanta, GA
4Jalon ThompsonDBJR5' 11"195Orlando, FL
6Tre MillerDBJR5' 10"180Birmingham, AL
16Coleman BrysonDBSR6' 2"215Waynesville, NC
18Jaiden PattersonDBJR6' 1"195Dacula, GA
19Reggie Love IIDBJR5' 8"170Raleigh, NC
20Xavier JacksonDBFR6' 1"190Willingboro, NJ
21Kenton Dopson IIIDBFR6' 0"200Miami, FL
23Khristian Dunbar-HawkinsDBSO5' 11"200Inland Empire, CA
24Javion ButtsDBFR6' 1"195Gray, GA
27Graham ReintjesDBFR6' 1"195Austin, TX
28Jamarrion GordonDBFR5' 11"190Jackson, AL
30Jaziel HartDBFR5' 11"185Roanoke, VA
31Julian PetersonDBFR6' 2"195Sicklerville, NJ
32Jermaine AndersonDBFR6' 2"210Fredericksburg, VA
34David DavisDBFR6' 0"200Pittsburgh, PA
38Julian BurnsDBFR6' 3"195Monroe, LA
92Aeron BurrellPKJR6' 2"190Bossier City, LA
97David GreenPKFR5' 10"180High Point, NC
91Adam Mccann-GibbsPFR6' 0"210Donegal, Ireland
93Jacob HorvathPJR6' 1"185Melbourne, Australia
48Gannon BurtLSJR6' 1"220Fort Mill, SC

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2015 (+9.8, #19) · worst: 2025 (-5.9, #97)
-50+5+10FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#97
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far4-42-3#50+5.0+2.2+2.8
20254-82-6#97-5.9-5.90.0
20246-73-5#710.0+3.5-3.4
20238-54-4#39+4.2+6.3-2.1
20229-56-2#55+3.0+6.9-3.9
20216-73-5#59+2.0+6.4-4.5
20208-47-3#21+7.7+9.2-1.5
20197-64-4#34+5.2+4.2+0.9
20182-91-7#95-5.4+0.5-5.9
20173-91-7#81-2.7-0.9-1.8
20168-55-3#33+6.2+4.4+1.9
201511-38-0#19+9.8+9.1+0.7
20146-74-4#73-1.4+6.7-8.1

North Carolina's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Nov 3, 12:25 PM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →