ACC · 2021 · Final

North Carolina Tar Heels 2021

6-73-5 in conference
Final TDC rank
#59
of 130 FBS teams
Rating
+2.0
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
+6.4
15th in FBS
Defense
-4.5
109th in FBS
Schedule
+0.1
54th toughest
Preseason
+4.1
rating going in

2021 Season

The TDC Rating after every week of the season

Rating by week

+2.0 now, +4.1 preseason · down 38 spots since preseason
0+5+10FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8Wk 9Wk 10Wk 11Wk 12Wk 13Wk 14Wk 15Bowls#59

Results

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 3@78Virginia TechCONFL 10–17-6.4—ESPN
2Sep 11vs69Georgia StateW 59–17+27.7—ESPN3
3Sep 18vs66VirginiaCONFW 59–39+18.0—ACC Network
4Sep 25vs97Georgia TechCONFNEUTRALL 22–45-27.8—ACC Network
5Oct 2vs122DukeCONFW 38–7+10.5—ESPN2
6Oct 9vs72Florida StateCONFL 25–35-13.5—ESPN
7Oct 16vs52MiamiCONFW 45–42+4.1—ACC Network
8—Bye
9Oct 30@6Notre DameL 34–44+5.4—NBC
10Nov 6vs16Wake ForestW 58–55+9.0—ABC
11Nov 11@9PittsburghCONFL 23–30+5.7—ESPN
12Nov 20vsWofford FCSW 34–14-1.6—ESPN3
13Nov 26@18NC StateCONFL 30–34+6.4—ESPN
BowlsDec 30vs75South CarolinaNEUTRALL 21–38-18.4—ESPN

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate49.0%22nd48.4%111th
Rushing success rate53.3%11th52.8%124th
Passing success rate44.4%53rd43.5%77th
Explosive run rate23.5%1st15.7%88th
Explosive pass rate13.4%19th13.4%116th
Line yards / carry3.4618th3.33104th
Opportunity rate47.2%4th43.4%110th
Stuff rate17.3%83rd12.6%112th
Sack rate11.2%126th6.5%56th
3rd-down conversion42.4%57th43.0%92nd
Red-zone TD rate55.3%88th55.3%44th
Havoc rate10.7%108th8.2%89th
Box score · season totals
Points / game35.222nd32.1102nd
Yards / game468.410th408.187th
Yards / play6.4511th5.7696th
Pass yards / game255.742nd223.279th
Yards / pass att.8.7016th7.7194th
Completion %62.0%57th60.0%65th
Rush yards / game212.718th170.495th
Yards / carry5.398th4.5193rd
3rd-down conv. %43.0%37th——
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)1.0836th——
Sacks / game (allowed · made)3.77127th2.2561st
Penalty yards / game69.2118th——

Players

58 players who recorded a stat in 2021 (from box scores)

58 players

Final ratings for 2021, built with the same model as the current season. ESPN’s 2021 box scores are missing most defensive stats, so players’ tackles, TFL, sacks and breakups are rebuilt from the play-by-play (they run about 10% below official totals). Ratings are in points on a neutral field. All 2021 power rankings →