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ACC · 2026

Louisville Cardinals

Head coach Jeff Brohm · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
5-34-2 in conference
TDC Rank
#15
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
+16.2
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
+12.6
8th in FBS
Defense
+3.6
43rd in FBS
Schedule so far
+2.7
33rd toughest
Projected
7.8-4.2
bowl-eligible 99%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

+16.2 now, +12.6 preseason · up 8 spots since preseason
0+5+10+15FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8Wk 9#14

Final record odds

7.8-4.2 expected · most likely 8-4 (42%)
5-77%6-626%7-542%8-425%9-3

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Lincoln Kienholz
QB · JR · 18th in FBS
2094yds
12 TD · 3 INT
Rushing
Isaac Brown
RB · JR · 28th in FBS
707yds
92 car · 7 TD
Receiving
Tre Richardson
WR · SR · 33rd in FBS
633yds
40 rec · 2 TD
Tackles
T.J. Capers
LB · SR · 112th in FBS
57tkl
1.5 TFL
Sacks
Tyler Thompson
DL · SR · 26th in FBS
5.5sacks
2 hurries
Interceptions
Kaleb Beasley
DB · JR · 1st in FBS
5INT
4 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 6vs10Ole MissNEUTRALL 38–41 ›+18.8—ABC
2Sep 11vsVillanova FCSW 59–13 ›+5.0—ACC Network
3Sep 19vs29SMUCONFW 41–31 ›+18.2—ESPN2
4Sep 26vs14Wake ForestCONFL 27–30 ›+9.5—ESPN
5Oct 3@67NC StateCONFL 28–31 ›+2.6—ACC Network
6Oct 9vs41Florida StateCONFW 44–20 ›+27.6—ESPN
7Oct 17@65SyracuseCONFW 34–26 ›+13.8—ACC Network
8—Bye
9Oct 31vs100StanfordCONFW 52–24 ›+11.8—ACC Network
10Nov 7@78Georgia TechCONFLouisville −14.8 · o/u 65.6—84%ACC Network
11Nov 14@50North CarolinaCONFLouisville −7.5 · o/u 61.5—69%
12Nov 21vs38PittsburghCONFLouisville −12.0 · o/u 59.8—79%
13Nov 28@30KentuckyLouisville −0.6 · o/u 62.2—52%

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.3346th+0.08565th
Success rate49.8%11th40.7%61st
Explosiveness1.4264th1.26080th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate50.5%9th40.7%59th
Rushing success rate52.0%6th42.4%70th
Passing success rate48.9%19th39.2%53rd
Explosive run rate21.5%1st8.7%11th
Explosive pass rate16.8%3rd10.9%90th
Line yards / carry3.1954th3.1898th
Opportunity rate45.1%7th36.7%58th
Stuff rate20.7%113th11.4%135th
Sack rate5.9%84th5.8%67th
3rd-down conversion46.0%32nd32.1%15th
Red-zone TD rate73.1%17th46.2%20th
Havoc rate15.4%113th13.3%80th
Box score · season totals
Points / game40.45th27.095th
Yards / game492.18th411.3117th
Yards / play7.601st5.3774th
Pass yards / game267.027th269.0131st
Yards / pass att.9.904th7.5294th
Completion %68.1%18th61.2%65th
Rush yards / game225.19th142.370th
Yards / carry6.302nd3.6944th
3rd-down conv. %46.1%26th31.9%26th
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)0.8825th1.7514th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)1.7555th2.3844th
Penalty yards / game72.0122nd65.330th

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
9.2
48th of 138
YAC per catch
7.2
5th of 138
Deep shots (20+)
16%
44th of 138
Shotgun
84%
122nd of 138
No-huddle
31%
97th of 138
QB pressured
14%
60th of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
14%
86th of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
5.6
38th of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws208 throws charted

68% comp9.2 avg. depth7.2 YAC/catch16% 20+ air yds13–3 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 16 throws (8%), 15 caught (94%), 105 yds, 6.6 per throw1694% · 105yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 17 throws (8%), 12 caught (71%), 95 yds, 5.6 per throw1771% · 95yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 17 throws (8%), 11 caught (65%), 122 yds, 7.2 per throw1765% · 122yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 3 caught (43%), 38 yds, 5.4 per throw743% · 38yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 1 caught (17%), 19 yds, 3.2 per throw617% · 19yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 2 caught (33%), 88 yds, 14.7 per throw633% · 88yLeft, 30+ air yards: noneMiddle, Behind air yards: 1 throws (0%), 1 caught (100%), 13 yds, 13.0 per throw1100% · 13yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 14 throws (7%), 9 caught (64%), 80 yds, 5.7 per throw1464% · 80yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 9 throws (4%), 8 caught (89%), 67 yds, 7.4 per throw989% · 67yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 11 throws (5%), 6 caught (55%), 104 yds, 9.5 per throw1155% · 104yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 9 throws (4%), 7 caught (78%), 144 yds, 16.0 per throw978% · 144yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 2 caught (50%), 51 yds, 12.8 per throw450% · 51yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (2%), 1 caught (25%), 35 yds, 8.8 per throw425% · 35yRight, Behind air yards: 16 throws (8%), 16 caught (100%), 120 yds, 7.5 per throw16100% · 120yRight, 0–4 air yards: 21 throws (10%), 15 caught (71%), 176 yds, 8.4 per throw2171% · 176yRight, 5–9 air yards: 19 throws (9%), 15 caught (79%), 170 yds, 8.9 per throw1979% · 170yRight, 10–14 air yards: 9 throws (4%), 7 caught (78%), 126 yds, 14.0 per throw978% · 126yRight, 15–19 air yards: 3 throws (1%), 1 caught (33%), 32 yds, 10.7 per throw333% · 32yRight, 20–29 air yards: 9 throws (4%), 5 caught (56%), 150 yds, 16.7 per throw956% · 150yRight, 30+ air yards: 10 throws (5%), 6 caught (60%), 269 yds, 26.9 per throw1060% · 269y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on270 throws charted

61% comp8.5 avg. depth5.6 YAC/catch16% 20+ air yds15–8 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 27 throws (10%), 25 caught (93%), 139 yds, 5.1 per throw2793% · 139yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 18 throws (7%), 10 caught (56%), 48 yds, 2.7 per throw1856% · 48yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 18 throws (7%), 13 caught (72%), 119 yds, 6.6 per throw1872% · 119yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 2 caught (29%), 23 yds, 3.3 per throw729% · 23yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 4 caught (80%), 69 yds, 13.8 per throw580% · 69yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 9 throws (3%), 3 caught (33%), 113 yds, 12.6 per throw933% · 113yLeft, 30+ air yards: 7 throws (3%), 2 caught (29%), 89 yds, 12.7 per throw729% · 89yMiddle, Behind air yards: 4 throws (1%), 4 caught (100%), 19 yds, 4.8 per throw4100% · 19yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 16 throws (6%), 10 caught (63%), 38 yds, 2.4 per throw1663% · 38yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 18 throws (7%), 11 caught (61%), 105 yds, 5.8 per throw1861% · 105yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 9 throws (3%), 5 caught (56%), 58 yds, 6.4 per throw956% · 58yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 5 caught (71%), 103 yds, 14.7 per throw771% · 103yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 3 caught (43%), 130 yds, 18.6 per throw743% · 130yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 34 yds, 17.0 per throw250% · 34yRight, Behind air yards: 26 throws (10%), 22 caught (85%), 145 yds, 5.6 per throw2685% · 145yRight, 0–4 air yards: 29 throws (11%), 17 caught (59%), 133 yds, 4.6 per throw2959% · 133yRight, 5–9 air yards: 28 throws (10%), 14 caught (50%), 125 yds, 4.5 per throw2850% · 125yRight, 10–14 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 6 caught (60%), 77 yds, 7.7 per throw1060% · 77yRight, 15–19 air yards: 9 throws (3%), 3 caught (33%), 76 yds, 8.4 per throw933% · 76yRight, 20–29 air yards: 9 throws (3%), 4 caught (44%), 106 yds, 11.8 per throw944% · 106yRight, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (2%), 3 caught (60%), 152 yds, 30.4 per throw560% · 152y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction250 carries

Left
28%
7.6 YPC · 55% succ.
Middle
51%
6.6 YPC · 47% succ.
Right
22%
7.5 YPC · 57% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced276 carries

Left
11%
4.8 YPC · 45% succ.
Middle
77%
4.5 YPC · 38% succ.
Right
12%
4.6 YPC · 47% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Jeff Brohm

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
3Lincoln KienholzQBJR6' 2"215Pierre, SD
10Briggs CherryQBFR6' 4"215Cookeville, TN
19Mason FieldsQBFR6' 4"215Villa Hills, KY
1Isaac BrownRBJR5' 9"190Miami, FL
5Keyjuan BrownRBSR5' 10"215Anniston, AL
22Lekhy ThompkinsRBFR6' 2"235Alamo, TN
24Marquise DavisRBSO6' 0"215Cleveland, OH
32Braxton JenningsRBSO5' 11"195Ashland, KY
0Tre RichardsonWRSR5' 10"175Topeka, KS
2TreyShun HurryWRSR6' 2"200Palmdale, CA
7Lawayne McCoyWRJR6' 1"180Miami Gardens, FL
14Kris HughesWRSR5' 11"200Morganfield, KY
14Jackson VothWRJR5' 11"190Cheney, KS
18Terrence McWilliams Jr.WRSR6' 0"190Indianapolis, IN
42Rhys DorseyWRFR5' 11"195Madison, AL
45Marlon HarbinWRFRLouisville, KY
49DeVuan JonesWRSO5' 8"175Indianapolis, IN
81Jakob DixonWRSR6' 4"215Louisville, KY
82Montavin QuisenberryWRSO5' 10"180Danville, KY
84Payton CookWRFR6' 1"190Akron, OH
86Elizjah LewisWRSR6' 2"195Smyrna, DE
89Gavin WaddellWRFR6' 0"180Raleigh, NC
Marlon HarbinWRFRLouisville
15Julius MilesTEFR6' 6"220Freeport, FL
44Travis EganTESR6' 2"220Mount Washington, KY
80Brody FoleyTESR6' 6"260Cincinnati, OH
85Justyn ReidTESR6' 5"260Newnan, GA
87Dylan MesmanTEJR6' 5"240Saline, MI
88Jaleel SkinnerTESR6' 5"230Greer, SC
90Hamilton AtkinsTEJR6' 4"250Louisville, KY
52Max MerzOLFR6' 4"310Fort Thomas, KY
53Lance RobinsonOLSR6' 4"295Camilla, GA
56Eryx DaughertyOLSR6' 4"310Troy, MI
57Naeer JacksonOLSR6' 6"310Philadelphia, PA
61Gradey AnthonyOLSO6' 5"295Goshen, KY
65Ellis McAdooOLJR6' 6"295Elmhurst, IL
66Johnnie Brown IIIOLSR6' 3"310Atlanta, GA
67James Glover-TysonOLSR6' 6"325Louisville, KY
70Anwar O'NealOLSR6' 5"310Philadelphia, PA
71Cason HenryOLSR6' 6"300Atlanta, GA
72Sam SecrestOLSR6' 5"300Greenwood, IN
73Ben CorheiOLFR6' 5"300Naples, FL
74Jarvis StricklandOLFR6' 6"295Chattanooga, TN
75Cameron GorinOLSO6' 5"295Fishers, IN
76Tyler FolmarOLFR6' 6"315Cantonment, FL
78Charlie EdgeworthOLFR6' 7"320Chattanooga, TN
63Bryten CloseOTFR6' 6"300Campbellsville, KY
2Demeco KennedyDLJR6' 3"305Lexington, KY
3Tyler ThompsonDLSR6' 5"245Cary, NC
17AJ GreenDLSR6' 6"250Atlanta, GA
19Micah CarterDLSR6' 6"265Louisville, KY
40Eric HazzardDLSO6' 3"255Nolensville, TN
50Clev LubinDLSR6' 3"260Suffern, NY
59Reece SellersDLFR6' 1"215Cheval, FL
62Chris Jones Jr.DLSO6' 1"305Louisville, KY
90Daylen RussellDLJR6' 3"300Miami, FL
91Keon WebbDLJR6' 5"300Tampa, FL
93Bailey AbercrombieDLSO6' 3"285Birmingham, AL
94Dillon SmithDLSO6' 4"285Union, KY
95Joshua DonaldDLJR6' 2"310Durham, NC
97Maurice DavisDLSO6' 4"250Albany, GA
98Sam DawsonDLFR6' 3"300Crestwood, KY
99Jerod Smith IIDLJR6' 4"270Corbin, KY
6Stanquan ClarkLBSR6' 3"240Miami, FL
11T.J. CapersLBSR6' 2"225Miami, FL
23Benjamin PerryLBSR6' 3"215Chicago, IL
30Taj PowellLBFR6' 2"235Springfield, OH
34Brady BallartLBFR6' 2"225Aurora, IN
36Jacob SmithLBJR6' 4"235Corbin, KY
38Cam WhiteLBSO6' 1"235Tampa, FL
41Caleb MatelauLBSO6' 1"225Palmetto, FL
43Trent CarterLBJR6' 3"225Jacksonville, FL
52Kalib PerryLBSR6' 3"230Georgetown, KY
1Jabari MackDBSR6' 1"185Jacksonville, FL
4TJ BanksDBJR6' 2"205Tuscaloosa, AL
5Koen EntringerDBSR6' 2"215Ypsilanti, MI
9Antonio WattsDBSR6' 2"225Columbus, GA
10Kaleb BeasleyDBJR6' 1"200Nashville, TN
13Tayon HollowayDBSR6' 1"190Virginia Beach, VA
20Antonio HarrisDBSO6' 0"180Louisville, KY
21Jaydin BroadnaxDBFR6' 3"190Boca Raton, FL
25Brycen ScottDBJR5' 11"195Florence, SC
27Myles NorwoodDBSR6' 2"190St. Louis, MO
29Blake RuffinDBSR6' 3"205Louisville, KY
31Micah RiceDBSO6' 2"200Los Angeles, CA
33Kris BrunsonDBFR6' 2"190Snellville, GA
37Anderson MitchellDBJR6' 2"190Lexington, KY
39Jordan GervaisDBFR5' 10"175San Antonio, TX
47Garion McPhersonDBFR5' 10"180Danville, KY
12DJ Waller Jr.CBSR6' 3"210Youngstown, OH
26Jordan VannSFR6' 1"200Middletown, OH
35Carson HilbertPKSO6' 3"215Louisville, KY
92Garth WhitePKSR6' 3"206Westlake Village, CA
95Bode ShoapsPKFR5' 10"160Granville, OH
98Nick KellerPKSR6' 1"200Hebron, KY
48Jacob BakerPJR6' 2"215Corbin, KY
91Niall HayesPFR6' 1"200Melbourne, Australia
51Hayden TravelsteadLSJR6' 0"210Acworth, GA
54Drew KegebeinLSFR5' 11"210Elburn, IL
77Ryan ManisLSJR6' 1"225Wilmington, NC

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2016 (+11.8, #12) · worst: 2018 (-11.4, #115)
-100+10FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#24
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far5-34-2#15+16.2+12.6+3.6
20259-44-4#24+8.0+4.2+3.7
20249-45-3#14+10.7+7.2+3.5
202310-47-1#23+7.7+2.4+5.3
20228-54-4#20+8.1+1.7+6.4
20216-74-4#54+2.8+3.0-0.2
20204-73-7#57+1.0+1.4-0.4
20198-55-3#61-0.5+5.2-5.7
20182-100-8#115-11.4-3.5-7.9
20178-54-4#22+8.4+8.9-0.5
20169-47-1#12+11.8+8.8+2.9
20158-55-3#45+4.9+2.2+2.7
20149-45-3#26+8.8+3.8+5.1

Louisville's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Nov 3, 12:25 PM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →