Sun Belt · 2026

Arkansas State Red Wolves

Head coach Butch Jones · Centennial Bank Stadium
1-20-0 in conference
TDC Rank
#112
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
-6.0
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
-3.2
104th in FBS
Defense
-2.9
105th in FBS
Schedule so far
-6.5
69th toughest
Projected
5.3-6.7
bowl-eligible 46%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

-6.0 now, -3.1 preseason · down 12 spots since preseason
-50FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3#112

Final record odds

5.3-6.7 expected · most likely 5-7 (22%)
1-112-1010%3-918%4-822%5-721%6-615%7-58%8-49-3

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 5@64MemphisL 24–42-14.3—ESPN+
2Sep 12vsWest Georgia FCSW 52–7+4.1—ESPN+
3Sep 19@40TCUL 7–31-16.8—ESPNU
4Sep 26vs107Kennesaw StateArkansas State −2.0 · o/u 43.8—55%ESPN+
5Oct 3@97LouisianaCONFLouisiana −5.4 · o/u 49.9—36%ESPN+
6Oct 8vs93South AlabamaCONFArkansas State −0.1 · o/u 56.5—50%
7Oct 17@123Southern MissCONFSouthern Miss −0.6 · o/u 49.8—49%
8Oct 24vs80Georgia StateCONFGeorgia State −1.0 · o/u 56.1—48%
9—Bye
10Nov 7vs136UL MonroeCONFArkansas State −10.9 · o/u 51.8—76%
11Nov 14@95Coastal CarolinaCONFCoastal Carolina −5.6 · o/u 46.9—36%
12Nov 21@78Louisiana TechCONFLouisiana Tech −7.1 · o/u 51.8—32%
13Nov 28vs98TroyCONFArkansas State −0.6 · o/u 47.7—52%

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.039105th+0.210118th
Success rate45.5%58th44.0%109th
Explosiveness1.162102nd1.437122nd
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate46.4%47th44.4%107th
Rushing success rate49.3%34th41.1%76th
Passing success rate43.4%76th48.6%124th
Explosive run rate12.0%94th14.7%100th
Explosive pass rate14.1%42nd19.7%136th
Line yards / carry3.1869th3.25107th
Opportunity rate40.0%63rd35.8%68th
Stuff rate14.7%60th13.7%108th
Sack rate6.6%108th4.1%92nd
3rd-down conversion43.3%61st51.5%128th
Red-zone TD rate66.7%59th85.7%123rd
Havoc rate13.2%77th11.2%114th
Box score · season totals
Points / game27.788th26.7103rd
Yards / game362.096th412.3112th
Yards / play6.1763rd6.44122nd
Pass yards / game197.799th233.099th
Yards / pass att.8.4050th8.96130th
Completion %63.4%75th66.7%116th
Rush yards / game164.373rd179.3116th
Yards / carry5.0043rd4.85117th
3rd-down conv. %46.9%42nd50.0%125th
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)1.6799th2.337th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)2.0088th1.00111th
Penalty yards / game35.714th59.057th

Roster

100 players · Head coach Butch Jones

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
6Ethan CrawfordQBSR6' 0"201Tuscaloosa, AL
7Drew DickeyQBSR6' 1"211Austin, TX
9Trey OwensQBJR6' 5"220Houston, TX
12Jeremy St-HilaireQBJR6' 4"220Montreal, Canada
20Mason SchubertQBSO6' 3"188Stillwater, OK
4Devin SpencerRBJR5' 10"183Tampa, FL
5Kenyon ClayRBSR6' 1"223Union, MS
8Corey ReddickRBSR5' 10"175West Palm Beach, FL
22Ezell JollyRBSR6' 0"194Houston, TX
23Solomon BaggettRBFR5' 10"196Ocean Springs, MS
24Nasir AllenRBSO5' 11"174Ocala, FL
27James LeeRBSR5' 10"190Kenner, LA
31Timothy CarterRBSR6' 0"215Miami Gardens, FL
0Nana BurrisWRSR5' 11"195Union, SC
2Chauncy CobbWRSR5' 6"161Clewiston, FL
3Hunter SummersWRSR6' 3"165Prosper, TX
10Jaylen BonelliWRSR5' 11"175Miami, FL
14Andre FeastWRSO5' 10"186Missouri City, TX
15Andrew JonesWRSO6' 1"160Jonesboro, AR
18Romel StevensWRSO6' 4"210Willis, TX
21Deshaun FeddWRFR6' 1"175Cordele, GA
80Kena RegoWRFR6' 0"171Hoover, AL
81Dallas BoozerWRFR6' 2"175Prosper, TX
84Reed LinderWRSR5' 10"177Memphis, TN
85Brandon GolidayWRFR6' 0"183Antioch, TN
11Tyler LittleTESR6' 4"245Galena, KS
16Joshua BurrellTESR6' 2"233Blythewood, SC
17Jabari BushTEJR6' 4"230Katy, TX
19Jaden HammTESR6' 6"252Eudora, KS
41Coleman ParmerTESO6' 3"209Baxley, GA
82Ezra BurgessTEJR6' 4"243Rabun Gap, GA
88Dawson McfadinTEFR6' 4"227Conway, AR
89Andrew StatenTESO6' 4"230Jacksonville, FL
50Wil SaxtonOLSR6' 3"314Benton, MS
51Cade ChannellOLSO6' 5"294Dora, AL
52Mason MyersOLSR6' 4"289Moody, AL
53Talan ChandlerOLJR6' 2"299Nevada, MO
58Cameron AmbroseOLSR6' 4"275Pinson, AL
63Aiden KehmOLJR6' 5"324Lake Oswego, OR
64Noah HackerOLSO6' 7"294Nashville, TN
65Cape JohnsonOLJR6' 4"303Wichita Falls, TX
68Tristian SmithOLSR6' 3"319Crossett, AR
69Cooper SherrodOLFR6' 3"305Collierville, TN
70Manasse IteteOLJR6' 5"308Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo
74Landry CannonOLSR6' 4"310Destrehan, LA
75JB HoehnOLFR6' 5"317Memphis, TN
76Trason HuntOLJR6' 5"309Bentonville, AR
77Gabe FortsonOLSR6' 3"317Kennesaw, GA
78Josh AustinOLFR6' 4"336Weiss, TX
79Baker NorthOLJR6' 3"329Mission, KS
10Tony CarterDESO6' 2"259Nashville, TN
11Sultan BadmusDEJR6' 1"275Bowie, MD
14Donquarius ParkerDESR6' 1"244Durham, NC
20TJ GrantDEJR6' 3"238Tuscaloosa, AL
27AJ ThomasDESR6' 2"242Zachary, LA
30Gavin TaylorDESR6' 2"247Yonkers, NY
34Mckinley McshanDEFR6' 3"241Loganville, GA
45Nicolas KalumeDESR6' 3"244Waterford, Ireland
90Lincoln StueveDESO6' 3"243Stilwell, KS
96Ronnie BlossomDESO6' 3"225Vicksburg, MS
44Sam HultzDTSR6' 3"281Collierville, TN
47Trey BridgesDTFR6' 2"263Petal, MS
54Ryan ReeseDTSO6' 2"272Birmingham, AL
91Tyeland ColemanDTSR6' 4"319Terry, MS
92Elias ShermanDTSR6' 1"291Tulsa, OK
93Trent MappDTJR6' 2"284Lawrenceville, GA
94Jakohri JohnsonDTFR6' 2"294Duncanville, TX
97Tavon BellDTFR6' 3"275Winnsboro, LA
99TJ SpannDTJR6' 3"307Clinton, MS
9Kam MooreLBSR6' 1"223Sanford, FL
22Nigel NelsonLBSO5' 11"216Pensacola, FL
23Robert StevensLBSR6' 1"216Washington, DC
24Joshua OforLBJR6' 1"224Jonesboro, GA
25Keoni DennyLBSR6' 0"230Riverview, FL
28Daniel DemeryLBSR5' 11"225Flower Mound, TX
35Rasheem TurnerLBFR5' 10"219Sanford, FL
37Ashton MooreLBFR6' 0"193Brandon, MS
38Noah HamlinLBFR6' 1"201Milton, FL
0Dontrae HendersonCBJR5' 11"184Charlotte, NC
1Braden JacksonCBJR6' 0"177Gulf Shores, AL
2Jaylen HeywardCBJR6' 0"189Rockledge, FL
3Noah FloresCBSR5' 9"181Sandy, UT
7Courtney PattersonCBSO5' 11"183Ocala, FL
12Bryson RossCBJR6' 3"190Sammamish, WA
33KeAndre FordCBFR5' 9"187Nashville, TN
4Makai ShahidSSR6' 0"197Gahanna, OH
5Five HamiltonSSR5' 10"178Stockbridge, GA
6AG McGheeSSR5' 10"187Chipley, FL
8Brandon BarnesSJR6' 1"189Dallas, TX
15Brandon GreilSSR5' 11"182Little Rock, AR
16Joe DrewSSO6' 3"215Blackshear, GA
19James Reed IIISSR5' 10"187Nashville, TN
21Malik McConicoSSR6' 2"187Ocala, FL
26Rukevwe EruwetaghwareSFR6' 0"192Wylie, TX
32Paul RisperSFR6' 1"173Macon, GA
30Clayton AmayaPKJR5' 10"199Spring Branch, TX
40Wells StanleyPFR6' 0"205Franklin, TN
42Kyle NillLSSO6' 1"205McKinney, TX
87Sam BoozerLSFR6' 3"215Little Rock, AR
88Riley SmithLSJR6' 1"205Odessa, FL

Updated Sep 24, 3:19 PM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →