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Sun Belt · 2026

Arkansas State Red Wolves

Head coach Butch Jones · Centennial Bank Stadium
4-42-2 in conference
TDC Rank
#105
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
-10.7
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
-3.5
92nd in FBS
Defense
-7.2
118th in FBS
Schedule so far
-9.6
103rd toughest
Projected
6.1-5.9
bowl-eligible 75%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

-10.7 now, -14.2 preseason · up 5 spots since preseason
-15-10-50FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8Wk 9#105

Final record odds

6.1-5.9 expected · most likely 6-6 (43%)
4-823%5-743%6-627%7-58-4

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Trey Owens
QB · JR · 26th in FBS
1940yds
11 TD · 6 INT
Rushing
Solomon Baggett
RB · FR · 214th in FBS
306yds
68 car · 2 TD
Receiving
Jaylen Bonelli
WR · SR · 97th in FBS
452yds
31 rec · 3 TD
Tackles
Joe Drew
S · SO · 21st in FBS
74tkl
0.5 TFL
Sacks
Tre Stevens
LB · SR · 309th in FBS
2sacks
2 hurries
Interceptions
Dontrae Henderson
CB · JR · 49th in FBS
2INT
2 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 5@58MemphisL 24–42 ›-10.9—ESPN+
2Sep 12vsWest Georgia FCSW 52–7 ›-9.3—ESPN+
3Sep 19@46TCUL 7–31 ›-13.9—ESPNU
4Sep 26vs112Kennesaw StateW 17–14 ›-13.2—ESPN+
5Oct 3@89LouisianaCONFL 20–23 ›-5.2—ESPN+
6Oct 8vs106South AlabamaCONFL 49–56 ›-21.5—ESPN2
7Oct 17@121Southern MissCONFW 23–13 ›-1.9—ESPN+
8Oct 24vs111Georgia StateCONFW 38–32 ›-9.5—ESPN+
9—Bye
10Nov 7vs136UL MonroeCONFArkansas State −16.8 · o/u 55.6—87%ESPN+
11Nov 14@108Coastal CarolinaCONFCoastal Carolina −3.1 · o/u 57.4—42%ESPN+
12Nov 21@73Louisiana TechCONFLouisiana Tech −13.7 · o/u 54.8—18%
13Nov 28vs107TroyCONFArkansas State −4.1 · o/u 54.0—61%

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.15956th+0.160106th
Success rate46.6%33rd45.0%120th
Explosiveness1.150114th1.25072nd
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate47.2%29th45.3%117th
Rushing success rate46.5%41st47.5%123rd
Passing success rate47.8%25th42.3%92nd
Explosive run rate12.6%94th15.9%120th
Explosive pass rate13.4%24th14.7%133rd
Line yards / carry3.0486th3.48132nd
Opportunity rate37.4%91st41.3%116th
Stuff rate17.8%85th12.7%130th
Sack rate5.3%73rd2.6%131st
3rd-down conversion40.2%79th44.6%118th
Red-zone TD rate66.7%39th75.0%127th
Havoc rate13.3%64th9.5%137th
Box score · season totals
Points / game28.869th27.397th
Yards / game378.974th386.098th
Yards / play5.9150th6.20125th
Pass yards / game242.551st190.539th
Yards / pass att.8.3028th7.78109th
Completion %68.2%17th66.8%129th
Rush yards / game136.499th195.5128th
Yards / carry4.1087th5.27130th
3rd-down conv. %41.5%55th44.3%124th
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)1.0035th1.6222nd
Sacks / game (allowed · made)1.8864th0.62137th
Penalty yards / game46.532nd58.854th

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
9.1
54th of 138
YAC per catch
5.2
82nd of 138
Deep shots (20+)
17%
38th of 138
Shotgun
94%
85th of 138
No-huddle
38%
89th of 138
QB pressured
13%
77th of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
10%
125th of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
5.0
91st of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws222 throws charted

68% comp9.1 avg. depth5.2 YAC/catch17% 20+ air yds11–6 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 12 throws (5%), 11 caught (92%), 46 yds, 3.8 per throw1292% · 46yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 19 throws (9%), 13 caught (68%), 105 yds, 5.5 per throw1968% · 105yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 23 throws (10%), 19 caught (83%), 186 yds, 8.1 per throw2383% · 186yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 4 caught (57%), 53 yds, 7.6 per throw757% · 53yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 5 caught (83%), 101 yds, 16.8 per throw683% · 101yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 10 throws (5%), 2 caught (20%), 61 yds, 6.1 per throw1020% · 61yLeft, 30+ air yards: 8 throws (4%), 3 caught (38%), 110 yds, 13.8 per throw838% · 110yMiddle, Behind air yards: noneMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 12 throws (5%), 9 caught (75%), 63 yds, 5.3 per throw1275% · 63yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 4 caught (67%), 42 yds, 7.0 per throw667% · 42yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 10 throws (5%), 8 caught (80%), 123 yds, 12.3 per throw1080% · 123yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 3 caught (60%), 61 yds, 12.2 per throw560% · 61yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 2 caught (50%), 69 yds, 17.3 per throw450% · 69yMiddle, 30+ air yards: noneRight, Behind air yards: 18 throws (8%), 17 caught (94%), 110 yds, 6.1 per throw1894% · 110yRight, 0–4 air yards: 27 throws (12%), 21 caught (78%), 128 yds, 4.7 per throw2778% · 128yRight, 5–9 air yards: 24 throws (11%), 18 caught (75%), 156 yds, 6.5 per throw2475% · 156yRight, 10–14 air yards: 11 throws (5%), 5 caught (45%), 156 yds, 14.2 per throw1145% · 156yRight, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 3 caught (50%), 76 yds, 12.7 per throw650% · 76yRight, 20–29 air yards: 9 throws (4%), 3 caught (33%), 80 yds, 8.9 per throw933% · 80yRight, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (2%), 4 caught (80%), 157 yds, 31.4 per throw580% · 157y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on183 throws charted

66% comp9.5 avg. depth5.0 YAC/catch18% 20+ air yds11–9 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 15 throws (8%), 12 caught (80%), 69 yds, 4.6 per throw1580% · 69yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 19 throws (10%), 13 caught (68%), 131 yds, 6.9 per throw1968% · 131yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 8 throws (4%), 6 caught (75%), 57 yds, 7.1 per throw875% · 57yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 3 throws (2%), 1 caught (33%), 14 yds, 4.7 per throw333% · 14yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 2 caught (50%), 37 yds, 9.3 per throw450% · 37yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 2 caught (50%), 57 yds, 14.3 per throw450% · 57yLeft, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (2%), 3 caught (75%), 125 yds, 31.3 per throw475% · 125yMiddle, Behind air yards: 4 throws (2%), 4 caught (100%), 1 yds, 0.3 per throw4100% · 1yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 14 throws (8%), 13 caught (93%), 120 yds, 8.6 per throw1493% · 120yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 11 throws (6%), 7 caught (64%), 67 yds, 6.1 per throw1164% · 67yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 3 caught (60%), 51 yds, 10.2 per throw560% · 51yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 8 throws (4%), 7 caught (88%), 180 yds, 22.5 per throw888% · 180yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 3 throws (2%), 1 caught (33%), 25 yds, 8.3 per throw333% · 25yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (2%), 2 caught (50%), 87 yds, 21.8 per throw450% · 87yRight, Behind air yards: 16 throws (9%), 15 caught (94%), 48 yds, 3.0 per throw1694% · 48yRight, 0–4 air yards: 20 throws (11%), 17 caught (85%), 87 yds, 4.3 per throw2085% · 87yRight, 5–9 air yards: 13 throws (7%), 7 caught (54%), 58 yds, 4.5 per throw1354% · 58yRight, 10–14 air yards: 8 throws (4%), 3 caught (38%), 52 yds, 6.5 per throw838% · 52yRight, 15–19 air yards: 8 throws (4%), 4 caught (50%), 83 yds, 10.4 per throw850% · 83yRight, 20–29 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 2 caught (33%), 41 yds, 6.8 per throw633% · 41yRight, 30+ air yards: 6 throws (3%), 3 caught (50%), 109 yds, 18.2 per throw650% · 109y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction241 carries

Left
17%
5.3 YPC · 48% succ.
Middle
57%
4.3 YPC · 47% succ.
Right
27%
6.2 YPC · 56% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced280 carries

Left
20%
4.8 YPC · 48% succ.
Middle
57%
5.6 YPC · 49% succ.
Right
23%
5.9 YPC · 48% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Butch Jones

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
6Ethan CrawfordQBSR6' 0"201Tuscaloosa, AL
7Drew DickeyQBSR6' 1"211Austin, TX
9Trey OwensQBJR6' 5"220Houston, TX
12Jeremy St-HilaireQBJR6' 4"220Montreal, Canada
20Mason SchubertQBSO6' 3"188Stillwater, OK
4Devin SpencerRBJR5' 10"183Tampa, FL
5Kenyon ClayRBSR6' 1"223Union, MS
8Corey ReddickRBSR5' 10"175West Palm Beach, FL
22Ezell JollyRBSR6' 0"194Houston, TX
23Solomon BaggettRBFR5' 10"196Ocean Springs, MS
24Nasir AllenRBSO5' 11"174Ocala, FL
27James LeeRBSR5' 10"190Kenner, LA
31Timothy CarterRBSR6' 0"215Miami Gardens, FL
0Nana BurrisWRSR5' 11"195Union, SC
2Chauncy CobbWRSR5' 6"161Clewiston, FL
3Hunter SummersWRSR6' 3"165Prosper, TX
10Jaylen BonelliWRSR5' 11"175Miami, FL
14Andre FeastWRSO5' 10"186Missouri City, TX
15Andrew JonesWRSO6' 1"160Jonesboro, AR
18Romel StevensWRSO6' 4"210Willis, TX
21Deshaun FeddWRFR6' 1"175Cordele, GA
80Kena RegoWRFR6' 0"171Hoover, AL
81Dallas BoozerWRFR6' 2"175Prosper, TX
84Reed LinderWRSR5' 10"177Memphis, TN
85Brandon GolidayWRFR6' 0"183Antioch, TN
11Tyler LittleTESR6' 4"245Galena, KS
16Joshua BurrellTESR6' 2"233Blythewood, SC
17Jabari BushTEJR6' 4"230Katy, TX
19Jaden HammTESR6' 6"252Eudora, KS
41Coleman ParmerTESO6' 3"209Baxley, GA
82Ezra BurgessTEJR6' 4"243Rabun Gap, GA
88Dawson McfadinTEFR6' 4"227Conway, AR
89Andrew StatenTESO6' 4"230Jacksonville, FL
50Wil SaxtonOLSR6' 3"314Benton, MS
51Cade ChannellOLSO6' 5"294Dora, AL
52Mason MyersOLSR6' 4"289Moody, AL
53Talan ChandlerOLJR6' 2"299Nevada, MO
58Cameron AmbroseOLSR6' 4"275Pinson, AL
63Aiden KehmOLJR6' 5"324Lake Oswego, OR
64Noah HackerOLSO6' 7"294Nashville, TN
65Cape JohnsonOLJR6' 4"303Wichita Falls, TX
68Tristian SmithOLSR6' 3"319Crossett, AR
69Cooper SherrodOLFR6' 3"305Collierville, TN
70Manasse IteteOLJR6' 5"308Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo
74Landry CannonOLSR6' 4"310Destrehan, LA
75JB HoehnOLFR6' 5"317Memphis, TN
76Trason HuntOLJR6' 5"309Bentonville, AR
77Gabe FortsonOLSR6' 3"317Kennesaw, GA
78Josh AustinOLFR6' 4"336Weiss, TX
79Baker NorthOLJR6' 3"329Mission, KS
10Tony CarterDESO6' 2"259Nashville, TN
11Sultan BadmusDEJR6' 1"275Bowie, MD
14Donquarius ParkerDESR6' 1"244Durham, NC
20TJ GrantDEJR6' 3"238Tuscaloosa, AL
27AJ ThomasDESR6' 2"242Zachary, LA
30Gavin TaylorDESR6' 2"247Yonkers, NY
34Mckinley McshanDEFR6' 3"241Loganville, GA
45Nicolas KalumeDESR6' 3"244Waterford, Ireland
90Lincoln StueveDESO6' 3"243Stilwell, KS
96Ronnie BlossomDESO6' 3"225Vicksburg, MS
44Sam HultzDTSR6' 3"281Collierville, TN
47Trey BridgesDTFR6' 2"263Petal, MS
54Ryan ReeseDTSO6' 2"272Birmingham, AL
91Tyeland ColemanDTSR6' 4"319Terry, MS
92Elias ShermanDTSR6' 1"291Tulsa, OK
93Trent MappDTJR6' 2"284Lawrenceville, GA
94Jakohri JohnsonDTFR6' 2"294Duncanville, TX
97Tavon BellDTFR6' 3"275Winnsboro, LA
99TJ SpannDTJR6' 3"307Clinton, MS
9Kam MooreLBSR6' 1"223Sanford, FL
22Nigel NelsonLBSO5' 11"216Pensacola, FL
23Tre StevensLBSR6' 1"216Washington, DC
24Joshua OforLBJR6' 1"224Jonesboro, GA
25Keoni DennyLBSR6' 0"230Riverview, FL
28Daniel DemeryLBSR5' 11"225Flower Mound, TX
35Rasheem TurnerLBFR5' 10"219Sanford, FL
37Ashton MooreLBFR6' 0"193Brandon, MS
38Noah HamlinLBFR6' 1"201Milton, FL
0Dontrae HendersonCBJR5' 11"184Charlotte, NC
1Braden JacksonCBJR6' 0"177Gulf Shores, AL
2Jaylen HeywardCBJR6' 0"189Rockledge, FL
3Noah FloresCBSR5' 9"181Sandy, UT
7Courtney PattersonCBSO5' 11"183Ocala, FL
12Bryson RossCBJR6' 3"190Sammamish, WA
33KeAndre FordCBFR5' 9"187Nashville, TN
4Makai ShahidSSR6' 0"197Gahanna, OH
5Five HamiltonSSR5' 10"178Stockbridge, GA
6AG McGheeSSR5' 10"187Chipley, FL
8Brandon BarnesSJR6' 1"189Dallas, TX
15Brandon GreilSSR5' 11"182Little Rock, AR
16Joe DrewSSO6' 3"215Blackshear, GA
19James Reed IIISSR5' 10"187Nashville, TN
21Malik McConicoSSR6' 2"187Ocala, FL
26Rukevwe EruwetaghwareSFR6' 0"192Wylie, TX
32Paul RisperSFR6' 1"173Macon, GA
30Clayton AmayaPKJR5' 10"199Spring Branch, TX
40Wells StanleyPFR6' 0"205Franklin, TN
42Kyle NillLSSO6' 1"205McKinney, TX
87Sam BoozerLSFR6' 3"215Little Rock, AR
88Riley SmithLSJR6' 1"205Odessa, FL

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2015 (+1.5, #62) · worst: 2021 (-12.0, #120)
-15-10-50FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#105
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far4-42-2#105-10.7-3.5-7.2
20257-65-3#105-6.6-3.4-3.2
20248-55-3#107-7.4-2.2-5.2
20236-74-4#88-4.0-2.1-1.8
20223-91-7#118-9.5-2.9-6.6
20212-101-7#120-12.0-1.5-10.5
20204-72-6#96-5.1+3.5-8.5
20198-55-3#82-2.5+3.2-5.7
20188-55-3#67+0.50.0+0.5
20177-56-2#60+0.8+1.9-1.1
20168-57-1#63-0.2-2.6+2.4
20159-48-0#62+1.5+5.5-3.9
20147-65-3#77-1.8+3.2-5.0

Arkansas State's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Nov 3, 12:25 PM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →