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CUSA · 2026

Missouri State Bears

Head coach Casey Woods · Robert W. Plaster Stadium
3-52-2 in conference
TDC Rank
#118
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
-14.5
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
-6.1
107th in FBS
Defense
-8.4
124th in FBS
Schedule so far
-9.0
100th toughest
Projected
4.4-7.6
bowl-eligible 12%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

-14.5 now, -14.5 preseason · down 6 spots since preseason
-15-10-50FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8Wk 9#118

Final record odds

4.4-7.6 expected · most likely 4-8 (40%)
15%3-940%4-833%5-711%6-67-5

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Henry Belin IV
QB · SR · 115th in FBS
1071yds
8 TD · 4 INT
Rushing
Ramone Green Jr.
RB · SR · 245th in FBS
272yds
67 car · 2 TD
Receiving
Isaiah Myers
WR · SR · 7th in FBS
873yds
41 rec · 8 TD
Tackles
Jared Lloyd
LB · SR · 2nd in FBS
86tkl
5.5 TFL
Sacks
Josh Lukusa
DE · SR · 229th in FBS
2.5sacks
4 hurries
Interceptions
Joel Boamah
CB · SR · 145th in FBS
1INT
6 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 5@25Texas A&ML 0–50 ›-16.5—ESPN
2Sep 12vsLindenwood FCSW 48–14 ›-3.2—ESPN+
3Sep 19vs110MarshallL 24–30 ›-21.5—CBSSN
4Sep 26@29SMUL 24–34 ›+5.6—ACC Network
5—Bye
6Oct 8@115Western KentuckyCONFL 13–34 ›-30.9—CBSSN
7Oct 14vs112Kennesaw StateCONFW 24–21 ›-13.2—CBSSN
8Oct 20@101DelawareCONFL 38–61 ›-29.2—ESPNU
9Oct 27vs129Sam HoustonCONFW 24–3 ›-1.6—ESPN2
10Nov 7@119Florida InternationalCONFFlorida International −3.6 · o/u 47.7—40%ESPN+
11Nov 14vs125New Mexico StateCONFMissouri State −5.1 · o/u 51.9—63%ESPN+
12Nov 21@95Jacksonville StateCONFJacksonville State −11.1 · o/u 56.5—23%
13Nov 28vs61LibertyCONFLiberty −13.7 · o/u 54.0—18%

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.09291st+0.225124th
Success rate41.2%82nd46.9%127th
Explosiveness1.26260th1.19946th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate41.9%80th45.6%119th
Rushing success rate46.5%41st43.9%89th
Passing success rate37.8%110th47.2%125th
Explosive run rate12.4%98th13.0%68th
Explosive pass rate12.9%31st10.1%76th
Line yards / carry3.1568th3.0471st
Opportunity rate43.1%21st38.2%82nd
Stuff rate16.8%64th15.9%95th
Sack rate5.7%80th5.6%71st
3rd-down conversion35.6%109th43.2%111th
Red-zone TD rate52.2%108th62.5%87th
Havoc rate13.7%77th14.7%50th
Box score · season totals
Points / game24.492nd30.9117th
Yards / game360.888th415.8122nd
Yards / play5.5871st5.77105th
Pass yards / game233.662nd251.1120th
Yards / pass att.7.9045th7.67103rd
Completion %66.9%28th65.3%114th
Rush yards / game127.1109th164.6100th
Yards / carry3.90101st4.3990th
3rd-down conv. %35.4%105th43.0%115th
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)1.1248th1.0097th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)2.1285th1.7593rd
Penalty yards / game68.6112th76.45th

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
8.6
81st of 138
YAC per catch
5.8
50th of 138
Deep shots (20+)
19%
12th of 138
Shotgun
98%
36th of 138
No-huddle
75%
51st of 138
QB pressured
15%
47th of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
14%
88th of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
5.2
68th of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws228 throws charted

67% comp8.6 avg. depth5.8 YAC/catch19% 20+ air yds11–6 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 21 throws (9%), 17 caught (81%), 52 yds, 2.5 per throw2181% · 52yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 11 throws (5%), 10 caught (91%), 79 yds, 7.2 per throw1191% · 79yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 13 throws (6%), 5 caught (38%), 70 yds, 5.4 per throw1338% · 70yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 2 caught (40%), 21 yds, 4.2 per throw540% · 21yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw20% · 0yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 8 throws (4%), 3 caught (38%), 115 yds, 14.4 per throw838% · 115yLeft, 30+ air yards: 8 throws (4%), 4 caught (50%), 158 yds, 19.8 per throw850% · 158yMiddle, Behind air yards: 6 throws (3%), 6 caught (100%), 26 yds, 4.3 per throw6100% · 26yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 3 throws (1%), 2 caught (67%), 15 yds, 5.0 per throw367% · 15yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 8 throws (4%), 8 caught (100%), 130 yds, 16.3 per throw8100% · 130yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 5 caught (83%), 79 yds, 13.2 per throw683% · 79yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 3 throws (1%), 2 caught (67%), 46 yds, 15.3 per throw367% · 46yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 3 throws (1%), 2 caught (67%), 75 yds, 25.0 per throw367% · 75yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (2%), 2 caught (50%), 96 yds, 24.0 per throw450% · 96yRight, Behind air yards: 34 throws (15%), 33 caught (97%), 140 yds, 4.1 per throw3497% · 140yRight, 0–4 air yards: 39 throws (17%), 23 caught (59%), 148 yds, 3.8 per throw3959% · 148yRight, 5–9 air yards: 20 throws (9%), 17 caught (85%), 164 yds, 8.2 per throw2085% · 164yRight, 10–14 air yards: 11 throws (5%), 4 caught (36%), 53 yds, 4.8 per throw1136% · 53yRight, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 2 caught (29%), 49 yds, 7.0 per throw729% · 49yRight, 20–29 air yards: 9 throws (4%), 4 caught (44%), 118 yds, 13.1 per throw944% · 118yRight, 30+ air yards: 7 throws (3%), 5 caught (71%), 208 yds, 29.7 per throw771% · 208y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on251 throws charted

65% comp9.1 avg. depth5.2 YAC/catch13% 20+ air yds16–3 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 26 throws (10%), 24 caught (92%), 167 yds, 6.4 per throw2692% · 167yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 15 throws (6%), 8 caught (53%), 32 yds, 2.1 per throw1553% · 32yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 14 throws (6%), 12 caught (86%), 104 yds, 7.4 per throw1486% · 104yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 11 throws (4%), 8 caught (73%), 115 yds, 10.5 per throw1173% · 115yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 5 caught (71%), 118 yds, 16.9 per throw771% · 118yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 2 caught (29%), 71 yds, 10.1 per throw729% · 71yLeft, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (1%), 1 caught (33%), 46 yds, 15.3 per throw333% · 46yMiddle, Behind air yards: 5 throws (2%), 5 caught (100%), 15 yds, 3.0 per throw5100% · 15yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 8 throws (3%), 3 caught (38%), 23 yds, 2.9 per throw838% · 23yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 6 throws (2%), 4 caught (67%), 32 yds, 5.3 per throw667% · 32yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 17 throws (7%), 9 caught (53%), 162 yds, 9.5 per throw1753% · 162yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 3 throws (1%), 3 caught (100%), 51 yds, 17.0 per throw3100% · 51yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 1 throws (0%), 1 caught (100%), 26 yds, 26.0 per throw1100% · 26yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 6 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw60% · 0yRight, Behind air yards: 19 throws (8%), 16 caught (84%), 64 yds, 3.4 per throw1984% · 64yRight, 0–4 air yards: 20 throws (8%), 13 caught (65%), 128 yds, 6.4 per throw2065% · 128yRight, 5–9 air yards: 38 throws (15%), 28 caught (74%), 248 yds, 6.5 per throw3874% · 248yRight, 10–14 air yards: 18 throws (7%), 8 caught (44%), 129 yds, 7.2 per throw1844% · 129yRight, 15–19 air yards: 12 throws (5%), 7 caught (58%), 158 yds, 13.2 per throw1258% · 158yRight, 20–29 air yards: 6 throws (2%), 5 caught (83%), 143 yds, 23.8 per throw683% · 143yRight, 30+ air yards: 9 throws (4%), 2 caught (22%), 71 yds, 7.9 per throw922% · 71y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction238 carries

Left
21%
5.8 YPC · 48% succ.
Middle
52%
3.8 YPC · 44% succ.
Right
27%
5.9 YPC · 48% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced270 carries

Left
28%
4.9 YPC · 47% succ.
Middle
54%
5.2 YPC · 50% succ.
Right
18%
4.9 YPC · 43% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Casey Woods

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
2Henry Belin IVQBSR6' 3"225New York, NY
7Elijah LeonardQBJR6' 4"220Lee's Summit, MD
9Skyler LocklearQBSR5' 11"195Clayton, NC
12Brett OttensmeyerQBFR6' 4"195Ballwin, MO
15Eian FinkleyQBSR6' 2"205Bushnell, FL
1Breezy DubarRBSR6' 0"205Anna, TX
10King DavisRBSO5' 8"185Miami, FL
13Josh JoynerRBJR5' 8"180Oxnard, CA
22Ramone Green Jr.RBSR5' 9"190Nixa, MO
40Connor LairRBSR6' 1"225West Plains, MO
43Amar'e JohnsonRBFR5' 10"195Orlando, FL
0Jmariyae RobinsonWRSR6' 1"165Cocoa, FL
3Isaiah MyersWRSR6' 4"173Cincinnati, OH
6Mekhi MillerWRSR6' 1"194Overland Park, KS
8Isaiah McMorrisWRJR5' 11"175Omaha, NE
11Makai CopeWRSR6' 3"210Los Angeles, CA
17Brendon McQueenWRJR6' 3"190Tulsa, OK
34Jordan ManuelWRSO6' 2"200Richmond, TX
42Devin StaleyWRFR6' 0"170Blue Springs, MO
81AJ Bell Jr.WRSO5' 11"160Boynton Beach, FL
82Brycen DorseyWRSO6' 0"182St. Louis, MO
83Amare WhetsellWRSO6' 0"180Pembroke Pines, FL
84Antonio RobinsonWRSR6' 3"185Melissa, TX
89Torrin TeagueWRFR6' 0"191Dallas, TX
46Cash PomeroyTEFR6' 2"265Marionville, MO
80Michael Osei-BonsuTESR6' 4"280Bolingbrook, IL
85Dillon HippTEJR6' 6"255Scottsdale, AZ
86James RexroatTEJR6' 4"235Republic, MO
87Witt EdwardsTEJR6' 5"225Fairfax, OK
88Jeron AskrenTEJR6' 3"230Wichita, KS
51Chase MideauOLFR6' 3"305Douglasville, GA
54Matthew GreeneOLSR6' 5"285Centennial, CO
55Ryan MitchellOLJR6' 3"285St. Louis, MO
66Makhete GueyeOLSR6' 6"310Bradenton, FL
67Ben LiedtkeOLSR6' 5"320Norwalk, IA
69Armend UjkashiOLSR6' 1"265Des Plaines, IL
70William Dixon IIIOLSR6' 3"280North Chesterfield, VA
71King LargeOLJR6' 4"316Bellflower, CA
72Isaiah VillanuevaOLSR6' 3"302Katy, TX
73Myles EwellOLJR6' 6"315Overland Park, KS
74Julius DumasOLFR6' 4"306Carrollton, GA
75Logan ScrivnerOLJR6' 4"305St. Charles, MO
76Santiago CastilloOLFR6' 7"340St. Louis, MO
77Sebastian EspinozaOLSR6' 6"300Mount Washington, KY
78Brayden ThompsonOLSO6' 8"320Eagle, WI
79Stephen MeitzOLSO6' 6"305Eureka, MO
11Tim Brantley Jr.DLSR6' 1"275Allen, TX
44Malachi MadisonDLSR6' 3"290Chester, VA
52Kaden JonesDLSR6' 4"250Yukon, OK
57Gilles TchioDLSR6' 3"310Milton, GA
90Brandon HightowerDLFR6' 2"280Dallas, TX
97Joshua DavisDLJR6' 3"310Natchez, MS
98Cam GrayDLFR6' 2"265Arlington, TX
99Markell ChapmanDLSR6' 1"303Sumter, SC
5Kellen LindstromDEJR6' 5"240Springfield, MO
10Jalile ElliottDESO6' 3"230Greensboro, NC
22Grayson CutchlowDEJR6' 3"230Columbia, MO
30Caden WiestDESR6' 4"265Reeds Spring, MO
49Dylan BrooksDESR6' 4"245Roanoke, AL
56Jayden McGeeDESO6' 4"225St. Louis, MO
59Maurice Jones Jr.DEFR6' 3"205Orlando, FL
92Josh LukusaDESR6' 5"260Cincinnati, OH
94Breylon McCullerDESO6' 5"235Raleigh, NC
96Blessing IgbinedionDEJR6' 4"283Verona, Italy
0Jared LloydLBSR6' 3"240Daytona Beach, FL
15Martavis BlackmonLBSR6' 1"225Oxford, MS
21Jashawn CooperLBJR6' 0"215Montgomery, AL
24Caleb OlabodeLBSO6' 2"205Arlington, TX
31Cooper RoyLBSR6' 3"225Springfield, MO
32Hieko MaloneLBJR6' 1"210Newton, TX
38Stratton ShufeltLBJR6' 2"230Rio Rancho, NM
41Deion ThomasLBFR6' 3"205Atlanta, GA
45Royal WeberLBFR6' 2"206Snellville, GA
48Jedrick Russell Jr.LBFR6' 3"208Grand Prairie, TX
6Navonn BarrettCBSR6' 1"190Trenton, NJ
7Malik GanawayCBSR6' 1"190Trenton, TN
8Joel KpassouCBSR5' 10"170Cleveland, OH
12Joel BoamahCBSR5' 11"180Newark, NJ
18Sean ReeseCBSR6' 0"190Atlanta, GA
23Gionni McBrideCBSO6' 3"175North Kansas City, MO
26Darryon TaylorCBSR6' 0"180Memphis, TN
2Antonio SmithSSR6' 3"197Miami, FL
3Khalil AndersonSSR5' 11"200Atlanta, GA
9Dylan DixsonSSR6' 1"180Houston, TX
13Haydon CastonSSO6' 1"193Houston, TX
14Jerrick MartinSFR6' 4"195Glasgow, KY
16J.J. O'NealSSR6' 2"180Rogersville, MO
19Xavian MichelSSO6' 0"180Naples, FL
27Devin RutherfordSJR5' 11"180Bartlett, TN
28Joseph ArnoldSSO6' 1"170Overland Park, KS
29Christian FordSSR6' 0"180McKinney, TX
33Anthony MattisonSJR5' 9"190Miami Gardens, FL
37Josiah TurnerSFR5' 11"180Dallas, TX
39Rory ButlerSFR6' 0"175West Palm Beach, FL
36Yousef ObeidPKSR6' 0"180Dearborn, MI
37Josh DealPKSR6' 0"200O' Fallon, MO
25Stewart McDonaldPJR6' 1"195Rogersville, MO
47Andrew KallasLSSR6' 3"227Riverside, IL
50Tim ColemanLSSO5' 11"220Madison, AL
65Malakai LewisLSFR6' 3"192Webster Groves, MO

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2025

Final rating by season

Best: 2025 (-7.3, #108) · worst: 2025 (-7.3, #108)
-10-50FBS avg2025#108
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far3-52-2#118-14.5-6.1-8.4
20257-65-3#108-7.3-3.4-3.9

Missouri State's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Nov 3, 12:25 PM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →