#40

Connor Lair

RBSenior6' 1", 225 lbsWest Plains, MO
Missouri State Bears3-5 · TDC #118
Snap share
36%
3 of 8 started · likely 28–44%
Rush yards
258
266th of 1519 in FBS
Yards / carry
4.0
233rd of 312 in FBS
Rush TD
4
133rd of 683 in FBS
Receptions
9
761st of 2089 in FBS
EPA / play
+0.08
166th of 264 RBs

Efficiency & Role

EPA = expected points added per play. Compared with every FBS RB who qualifies

EPA per play by situation

76 plays · +5.8 total EPA · 166th of 264 qualifying RBs
All plays+0.08
Passing+0.42
Rushing+0.02
1st down-0.10
2nd down+0.27
3rd down+0.62
Standard downs+0.00
Passing downs+0.27
LairRB average

Share of team plays

How often the offense runs through this player. Pass = targets or dropbacks, rush = carries
All plays15%
Pass plays5%
Run plays26%
1st down14%
2nd down17%
3rd down13%
Standard downs16%
Passing downs13%
LairRB average

Advanced

Computed from every play, garbage time excluded. FBS rank among players with enough volume

RushingValueFBS rank
Carries52—
Success rate50.0%70th / 332
Explosive run rate15.4%99th / 332
Stuffed at the line21.2%280th / 332
First downs17—
Red-zone carries18—
Goal-line carries7—
ReceivingValueFBS rank
Targets8—
Target share5.8%—
Catch rate75.0%—
Success rate per target50.0%—
Yards per target8.1—
Explosive catches12.5%—
Deep-target rate0.0%—
3rd-down targets2—
Red-zone targets0—

Charting

Where Lair's plays went: throw and catch spots, air yards and yards after the catch, read from the play-by-play

Targets
11
9 caught (82%)
Avg. depth of target
-1.7
air yards per target
YAC per catch
10.3
93 yds after the catch
Air yards caught
-17
of 76 yds on charted catches
Deep targets
0%
20+ air yards

Where he's targeted11 targets charted

82% comp-1.7 avg. depth10.3 YAC/catch0% 20+ air yds0–0 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 3 targets (27%), 3 caught (100%), 16 yds, 5.3 per target3100% · 16yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 1 targets (9%), 1 caught (100%), 5 yds, 5.0 per target1100% · 5yLeft, 5–9 air yards: noneLeft, 10–14 air yards: noneLeft, 15–19 air yards: noneLeft, 20–29 air yards: noneLeft, 30+ air yards: noneMiddle, Behind air yards: noneMiddle, 0–4 air yards: noneMiddle, 5–9 air yards: noneMiddle, 10–14 air yards: noneMiddle, 15–19 air yards: noneMiddle, 20–29 air yards: noneMiddle, 30+ air yards: noneRight, Behind air yards: 3 targets (27%), 2 caught (67%), 18 yds, 6.0 per target367% · 18yRight, 0–4 air yards: 4 targets (36%), 3 caught (75%), 37 yds, 9.3 per target475% · 37yRight, 5–9 air yards: noneRight, 10–14 air yards: noneRight, 15–19 air yards: noneRight, 20–29 air yards: noneRight, 30+ air yards: none
fewer more targets
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Run direction64 carries

Left
19%
4.4 YPC · 42% succ.
Middle
55%
4.3 YPC · 46% succ.
Right
27%
3.1 YPC · 35% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.
2025 charting · Missouri State

2025 season. ESPN's play-by-play only has throw and catch spots for part of 2025 (2 of Lair’s games here), so treat the maps as a sample.

Charted targets
3
3 caught (100%)
Avg. depth of target
-0.7
air yards per target
YAC per catch
16.7
50 yds after the catch
Air yards caught
-2
of 48 yds on charted catches
Deep targets
0%
20+ air yards

Where he's targeted3 targets charted

86% comp-0.7 avg. depth16.7 YAC/catch0% 20+ air yds1–0 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 1 targets (33%), 1 caught (100%), -4 yds, -4.0 per target1100% · -4yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 1 targets (33%), 1 caught (100%), 19 yds, 19.0 per target1100% · 19yLeft, 5–9 air yards: noneLeft, 10–14 air yards: noneLeft, 15–19 air yards: noneLeft, 20–29 air yards: noneLeft, 30+ air yards: noneMiddle, Behind air yards: noneMiddle, 0–4 air yards: noneMiddle, 5–9 air yards: noneMiddle, 10–14 air yards: noneMiddle, 15–19 air yards: noneMiddle, 20–29 air yards: noneMiddle, 30+ air yards: noneRight, Behind air yards: noneRight, 0–4 air yards: 1 targets (33%), 1 caught (100%), 33 yds, 33.0 per target1100% · 33yRight, 5–9 air yards: noneRight, 10–14 air yards: noneRight, 15–19 air yards: noneRight, 20–29 air yards: noneRight, 30+ air yards: none
fewer more targets
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Career

2 seasons since 2014 · box-score totals, snap share estimated from play-by-play

SeasonTeamGSnapsCarRush ydsY/CRush TDRush SRRecRec ydsRec TDTgt share
2026 so farMissouri State#118 · 3-5836%652584.0450.0%97605.8%
2025Missouri State#108 · 7-678%691.5025.0%66213.8%

Past seasons are summed from ESPN box scores; success rates and snap shares come from the play-by-play. Connor Lair's team rank is that season's final TDC rank. A dash means the stat wasn't recorded.

Game Log

Connor Lair's box score, game by game, from ESPN, with a 0–10 game score for each (hover it for how it works). Click a result for the full game

5.7 avg. game scoreBest: 7.7 at Delaware (Week 8)0 of 6 games at 8.0+
RushingReceiving
WkOpponentResultGame scoreCarYdsY/CTDLongRecYdsY/RTDLong
1@Texas A&ML 0–502.5500.002·····
2LindenwoodW 48–145.4492.315·····
3MarshallL 24–30—221.00112121.0021
4@SMUL 24–34—133.003·····
6@Western KentuckyL 13–346.05193.80622512.5014
7Kennesaw StateW 24–216.514654.60293196.309
8@DelawareL 38–617.715855.72153113.706
9Sam HoustonW 24–36.219753.9121·····
2026 · 8 games5.7652584.04299768.4021

2026 Season Stats

FBS rank among qualifying players

Rushing2026FBS rank
Carries65—
Yards258266th / 1519
Yards / carry4233rd / 312
Touchdowns4133rd / 683
Long29—
Receiving2026FBS rank
Receptions9761st / 2089
Yards76925th / 2074
Yards / catch8.4—
Touchdowns0—
Long21—
Fumbles2026FBS rank
Fumbles1—
Lost0—
Recovered0—

Snaps by Game

Estimated snaps from a model trained on real NFL snap counts. Ranges in brackets are where the real number lands 80% of the time: wide for a single game, tighter over the season. How it works

GameStartTeam playsEst. snapsPlays involvedSnap share
Wk 1 · Texas A&M—40~11 (3–21)528%
Wk 2 · Lindenwood—78~13 (3–25)417%
Wk 3 · Marshall✓ RB65~8 (2–16)312%
Wk 4 · SMU—61~6 (2–12)110%
Wk 6 · Western Kentucky—67~23 (16–30)734%
Wk 7 · Kennesaw State—73~38 (26–49)1852%
Wk 8 · Delaware✓ RB58~43 (36–48)2074%
Wk 9 · Sam Houston✓ RB59~36 (25–47)1961%
Season3 GS501178 (141–220)7736%

Position Room

6 RBs on the Missouri State roster, ordered by car

#PlayerPosClassCarYdsYPCTDRecEPA/play
22Ramone Green Jr.RBSR672724.128-0.04
40Connor LairRBSR65258449+0.08
1Breezy DubarRBSR432285.324-0.00
10King DavisRBSO15493.301-0.14
43Amar'e JohnsonRBFR7375.30—+0.21
13Josh JoynerRBJR——————

Stats, EPA and usage come from CollegeFootballData.com and refresh daily. FBS ranks only count players with enough volume for the stat to mean something. Qualifying for EPA takes 6+ plays per team game. Missouri State depth chart →