Basketball ↗
Power RankingsThis WeekTeamsDepth ChartsPlayersPlaysRecruitingBettingAwardsPast SeasonsPortalSOON
MAC · 2026

Buffalo Bulls

Head coach Pete Lembo · Broadview Stadium
5-33-1 in conference
TDC Rank
#126
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
-18.2
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
-10.7
128th in FBS
Defense
-7.6
122nd in FBS
Schedule so far
-13.1
129th toughest
Projected
6.6-5.4
bowl-eligible 88%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

-18.2 now, -19.5 preseason · rank unchanged
-20-100FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8Wk 9#126

Final record odds

6.6-5.4 expected · most likely 7-5 (36%)
12%5-734%6-636%7-516%8-49-3

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Jason Wright
QB · 118th in FBS
987yds
7 TD · 4 INT
Rushing
Messiah Burch
RB · SR · 14th in FBS
845yds
151 car · 5 TD
Receiving
Chance Morrow
WR · SR · 79th in FBS
483yds
41 rec · 6 TD
Tackles
SaVeon Brown
LB · SR · 42nd in FBS
67tkl
3.5 TFL
Sacks
Logan Goodwin
EDGE · JR · 309th in FBS
2sacks
9 hurries
Interceptions
Kobi Blackwell
CB · JR · 145th in FBS
1INT
2 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 3vsUAlbany FCSW 21–17 ›-21.9—ESPN+
2Sep 12@119Florida InternationalL 20–33 ›-23.9—ESPN+
3Sep 19@26Penn StateL 13–55 ›-14.2—BTN
4Sep 26vsRobert Morris FCSW 31–28 ›-36.2—ESPN+
5Oct 3vs82Western MichiganCONFL 17–20 ›-10.6—ESPN+
6Oct 10@77ToledoCONFW 23–8 ›+16.6—ESPN+
7Oct 17vs128MassachusettsCONFW 25–18 ›-15.2—ESPN+
8Oct 24vs127Bowling GreenCONFW 31–24 ›-15.0—ESPN+
9—Bye
10Nov 3@97Miami (OH)CONFMiami (OH) −13.9 · o/u 49.3—18%ESPN
11Nov 11@131Ball StateCONFBall State −1.6 · o/u 52.5—46%
12Nov 18vs122Central MichiganCONFBuffalo −1.2 · o/u 46.4—53%
13Nov 27@132AkronCONFAkron −1.4 · o/u 52.5—46%

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.038111th+0.09071st
Success rate35.8%134th39.1%41st
Explosiveness1.21087th1.21958th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate36.1%133rd39.6%44th
Rushing success rate37.6%122nd40.7%57th
Passing success rate34.4%129th38.4%40th
Explosive run rate10.1%122nd9.1%14th
Explosive pass rate6.2%135th9.5%63rd
Line yards / carry2.9996th3.1797th
Opportunity rate34.6%116th39.5%91st
Stuff rate15.8%50th14.8%108th
Sack rate4.7%55th3.6%115th
3rd-down conversion41.9%59th36.7%44th
Red-zone TD rate44.4%123rd66.7%101st
Havoc rate13.1%60th13.0%87th
Box score · season totals
Points / game22.6106th25.479th
Yards / game330.3117th377.088th
Yards / play4.38137th5.6294th
Pass yards / game154.6130th227.895th
Yards / pass att.5.00138th7.4190th
Completion %51.6%135th58.1%34th
Rush yards / game175.644th149.378th
Yards / carry4.2080th4.2887th
3rd-down conv. %38.6%85th35.6%48th
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)1.50103rd1.1278th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)2.38101st1.50104th
Penalty yards / game47.434th66.823rd

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
9.5
40th of 138
YAC per catch
1.9
138th of 138
Deep shots (20+)
14%
74th of 138
Shotgun
96%
61st of 138
No-huddle
90%
16th of 138
QB pressured
11%
97th of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
14%
87th of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
5.2
73rd of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws240 throws charted

51% comp9.5 avg. depth1.9 YAC/catch14% 20+ air yds9–4 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 9 throws (4%), 9 caught (100%), -3 yds, -0.3 per throw9100% · -3yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 18 throws (8%), 9 caught (50%), 33 yds, 1.8 per throw1850% · 33yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 24 throws (10%), 15 caught (63%), 112 yds, 4.7 per throw2463% · 112yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 16 throws (7%), 3 caught (19%), 36 yds, 2.3 per throw1619% · 36yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 12 throws (5%), 3 caught (25%), 52 yds, 4.3 per throw1225% · 52yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 9 throws (4%), 5 caught (56%), 101 yds, 11.2 per throw956% · 101yLeft, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw40% · 0yMiddle, Behind air yards: 1 throws (0%), 1 caught (100%), -3 yds, -3.0 per throw1100% · -3yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 3 caught (43%), 6 yds, 0.9 per throw743% · 6yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 4 caught (57%), 23 yds, 3.3 per throw757% · 23yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 3 caught (60%), 45 yds, 9.0 per throw560% · 45yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 2 caught (50%), 32 yds, 8.0 per throw450% · 32yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: noneMiddle, 30+ air yards: 7 throws (3%), 1 caught (14%), 59 yds, 8.4 per throw714% · 59yRight, Behind air yards: 15 throws (6%), 10 caught (67%), 26 yds, 1.7 per throw1567% · 26yRight, 0–4 air yards: 26 throws (11%), 17 caught (65%), 68 yds, 2.6 per throw2665% · 68yRight, 5–9 air yards: 38 throws (16%), 19 caught (50%), 159 yds, 4.2 per throw3850% · 159yRight, 10–14 air yards: 17 throws (7%), 6 caught (35%), 75 yds, 4.4 per throw1735% · 75yRight, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 6 caught (86%), 103 yds, 14.7 per throw786% · 103yRight, 20–29 air yards: 12 throws (5%), 7 caught (58%), 168 yds, 14.0 per throw1258% · 168yRight, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 2 caught (100%), 94 yds, 47.0 per throw2100% · 94y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on240 throws charted

58% comp9.2 avg. depth5.2 YAC/catch16% 20+ air yds12–4 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 12 throws (5%), 11 caught (92%), 49 yds, 4.1 per throw1292% · 49yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 17 throws (7%), 12 caught (71%), 73 yds, 4.3 per throw1771% · 73yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 17 throws (7%), 9 caught (53%), 104 yds, 6.1 per throw1753% · 104yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 9 throws (4%), 9 caught (100%), 155 yds, 17.2 per throw9100% · 155yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 3 caught (60%), 90 yds, 18.0 per throw560% · 90yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 1 caught (14%), 21 yds, 3.0 per throw714% · 21yLeft, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (2%), 2 caught (40%), 66 yds, 13.2 per throw540% · 66yMiddle, Behind air yards: 3 throws (1%), 1 caught (33%), -2 yds, -0.7 per throw333% · -2yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 8 throws (3%), 4 caught (50%), 31 yds, 3.9 per throw850% · 31yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 14 throws (6%), 9 caught (64%), 59 yds, 4.2 per throw1464% · 59yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 15 throws (6%), 10 caught (67%), 139 yds, 9.3 per throw1567% · 139yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 9 throws (4%), 3 caught (33%), 59 yds, 6.6 per throw933% · 59yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 8 throws (3%), 4 caught (50%), 126 yds, 15.8 per throw850% · 126yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (1%), 1 caught (33%), 32 yds, 10.7 per throw333% · 32yRight, Behind air yards: 18 throws (8%), 12 caught (67%), 59 yds, 3.3 per throw1867% · 59yRight, 0–4 air yards: 34 throws (14%), 19 caught (56%), 203 yds, 6.0 per throw3456% · 203yRight, 5–9 air yards: 24 throws (10%), 17 caught (71%), 197 yds, 8.2 per throw2471% · 197yRight, 10–14 air yards: 14 throws (6%), 6 caught (43%), 103 yds, 7.4 per throw1443% · 103yRight, 15–19 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 4 caught (100%), 72 yds, 18.0 per throw4100% · 72yRight, 20–29 air yards: 9 throws (4%), 4 caught (44%), 113 yds, 12.6 per throw944% · 113yRight, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw50% · 0y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction310 carries

Left
22%
6.6 YPC · 54% succ.
Middle
55%
4.0 YPC · 32% succ.
Right
23%
5.8 YPC · 49% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced262 carries

Left
31%
6.1 YPC · 50% succ.
Middle
38%
4.2 YPC · 32% succ.
Right
32%
4.2 YPC · 51% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Pete Lembo

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
12Qur'An McNeillQBFR6' 3"215Boston, MA
15Mason CumbieQBSR6' 1"205Hopewell, VA
16Elijah HolmesQBSR6' 1"215Charlotte, NC
18Jake ForburgerQBFR6' 0"215Bethesda, MD
0Nino HillRBSO5' 10"217Canton, OH
4Messiah BurchRBSR5' 9"190Staten Island, NY
21Devare MathisRBSR5' 11"215Buffalo, NY
24James McNeil Jr.RBJR6' 0"217Buffalo, NY
25Terrance Shelton Jr.RBJR5' 11"213Franklin, WI
26Chase EnlowRBFR5' 10"190Manalapan, NJ
1Phillip FolmarWRSO5' 9"185Morristown, NJ
2Jaylen AndrewsWRJR6' 2"185Williamsport, PA
3Patrick Clacks IIIWRJR6' 0"195Hobart, IN
6Chance MorrowWRSR6' 4"191Charlotte, NC
8Jasaiah GathingsWRSR6' 1"190Statesville, NC
9Alvin Jones IIIWRSO5' 11"185Chesapeake, VA
10Mark-Anthony Scott Jr.WRSR5' 7"172Port Jefferson Station, NY
11Dwayne Early Jr.WRSO6' 4"198Springfield, MA
13Bobby MaysWRJR6' 5"190Bergenfield, NJ
14Tyrell Simmons Jr.WRJR6' 2"190Rochester, NY
82Terrell RichardsWRSR5' 8"170Rochester, NY
83Jack EskridgeWRFR5' 6"150Buffalo, NY
88Aaron ClarkWRFR5' 11"190Philadelphia, PA
45Stone RozakTEFR6' 1"225Buffalo, NY
81TJ SabatucciTEFR6' 2"235Pittsburgh, PA
85Aiden HowardTEFR6' 4"230Binghamton, NY
86Michael GelatkoTESO6' 4"240Andreas, PA
89Nick LeonardTEJR6' 3"255Victor, NY
51Tyrone DavisOLJR6' 4"298Syracuse, NY
55Thomas BarrOLSO6' 3"292Havertown, PA
56Marco CateOLFR6' 4"295Carmel, IN
58Ben Foglia-AlbrechtOLFR6' 3"280Buffalo, NY
59Gabriel ArenaOLSR6' 4"293Harrisburg, PA
60Val KondratenkoOLJR6' 5"290Rochester, NY
62Paul ClarkOLJR6' 2"285Crown Point, IN
64Jacob MerrittOLSR6' 6"304Northville, MI
69Jackson BellamyOLJR6' 5"341Ancaster, Canada
72Jaden MaxeyOLFR6' 6"290Phoenix, AZ
74Nino FrancavillaOLSR6' 2"300Toronto, Canada
76Nathan NatoliOLSR6' 6"305Olney, MD
77Jackson DavenportOLSO6' 5"270Darien, CT
78Joe CrockerOLSR6' 6"339Ascot, England
79Cam DavisOLFR6' 5"280Newark, OH
88Rex StinchcombDLSO6' 2"285Herndon, VA
97Christopher ClimesDLSO6' 1"280La Belle, PA
55Mason NickelDTJR6' 1"290Midland, MI
59Royce RogersDTFR6' 0"270Springfield, OH
66Will ReedDTFR6' 3"260Oak Park, MI
95Stantavious SmithDTSR6' 1"280Albany, GA
96Charlton GoodellDTSR5' 10"245Alexandria, VA
98Mason NapleDTFR6' 3"270Victor, NY
99Cornell EvansDTSR6' 0"290Seat Pleasant, MD
1SaVeon BrownLBSR6' 1"210Harvey, IL
2Stevie BraceyLBSR6' 0"235Atlanta, GA
13Joey CheshireLBSR6' 1"235Lakeland, FL
18George HillLBSO6' 0"210Turtle Creek, PA
19Mathew HiltyLBSR5' 11"220Apollo, PA
20DJ ManganLBJR6' 1"239Maplewood, NJ
21Bradley Ilunga-BisseleleLBSO6' 0"221Montreal, Canada
25Na'Rod JarvisLBFR6' 0"215Chesapeake, VA
31Drake SaltarelliLBJR6' 0"218Belleair Bluffs, FL
32Matthew HeiningerLBFR6' 1"220Rochester, NY
33Jordan OwensLBSR6' 0"220Endwell, NY
40Amari SnowdenLBFR6' 3"210Rochester, NY
44Zach BergmannLBSR6' 4"230Rogersville, MO
52Jack GarbolinoLBFR6' 1"227North Brunswick, NJ
0Kobi BlackwellCBJR5' 8"180Buford, GA
3Oliver BridgesCBSR6' 2"215Upper Marlboro, MD
5Mikey CrawfordCBJR6' 0"195Pittsburgh, PA
9Keontez BradleyCBSR6' 2"185Mansfield, OH
12Jackson SmallCBSO5' 11"185Upper Marlboro, MD
22Donovan RodriguezCBSO5' 10"185Lancaster, PA
24Sayre SmothersCBSO5' 10"160Cincinnati, OH
27Davion CoffeeCBJR5' 9"195Rochester, NY
28Drayson CraneCBSO6' 0"195Dallas, TX
29Cardel StaplesCBFR5' 11"175Buffalo, NY
37Jamarcus JonesCBFR5' 11"170Columbus, OH
4Ronnell DavisSJR6' 0"193Philadelphia, PA
6Miles GreerSSR5' 10"195Springfield, VA
7John KeoughSJR6' 0"202Macedonia, OH
10Jamiere MunsonSSR5' 10"196Rochester, NY
14Jonathan RousseauSSO6' 0"193Coconut Creek, FL
23Xavier LeonardSJR5' 11"200Atlanta, GA
26Zae JenningsSJR6' 0"192Cincinnati, OH
38Dylan ClearySFR6' 0"193Ellicott City, MD
43Xair StevensonSSO6' 0"188Pittsburgh, PA
31Oliver HautanenPKSO5' 11"182Colleyville, TX
39Blake SholderPKFR6' 2"215Voorhees, NJ
96Zach McGowanPKSR6' 1"190Tonawanda, NY
95Evan PfeiferPFR6' 3"190Pittsburgh, PA
42Sam StrattonLSJR6' 0"185East Amherst, NY
48Joseph StoeverLSSR6' 2"210Savannah, GA
11Will ClarkEDGEJR6' 3"258Crown Point, IN
16Caleb OliverEDGEJR6' 2"235Deltona, FL
17Logan GoodwinEDGEJR6' 4"240West Chester, PA
30Jacari BennettEDGEJR6' 3"240Simpsonville, SC
34Preston LunsfordEDGEFR6' 2"230Newark, OH
35Malachi ErvinEDGEFR6' 4"230Pickerington, OH
49Aiden AndersonEDGEFR6' 2"235Orlando, FL
50Zach PettittEDGEFR6' 2"220Carthage, NY

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2020 (+9.1, #16) · worst: 2016 (-15.9, #127)
-100+10FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#109
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far5-33-1#126-18.2-10.7-7.6
20255-74-4#109-7.6-4.8-2.8
20249-46-2#86-3.4-1.5-1.8
20233-93-5#116-9.8-5.6-4.1
20227-65-3#91-4.9-1.9-3.1
20214-82-6#98-5.0-1.4-3.6
20206-15-0#16+9.1+6.8+2.3
20198-55-3#45+2.7+0.5+2.2
201810-47-1#52+2.3+3.4-1.1
20176-64-4#84-3.0-1.7-1.3
20162-101-7#127-15.9-10.3-5.6
20155-73-5#95-5.7-1.7-3.9
20145-63-4#95-6.8-0.3-6.6

Buffalo's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Nov 3, 12:25 PM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →