Efficiency & Role
EPA = expected points added per play. Compared with every FBS RB who qualifies
Advanced
Computed from every play, garbage time excluded. FBS rank among players with enough volume
| Rushing | Value | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Carries | 153 | — |
| Success rate | 35.9% | 297th / 332 |
| Explosive run rate | 9.8% | 254th / 332 |
| Stuffed at the line | 14.4% | 139th / 332 |
| First downs | 27 | — |
| Red-zone carries | 26 | — |
| Goal-line carries | 6 | — |
| Receiving | Value | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Targets | 11 | — |
| Target share | 5.0% | — |
| Catch rate | 54.5% | — |
| Success rate per target | 9.1% | — |
| Yards per target | 1.2 | — |
| Explosive catches | 0.0% | — |
| Deep-target rate | 0.0% | — |
| 3rd-down targets | 3 | — |
| Red-zone targets | 1 | — |
Charting
Where Burch's plays went: throw and catch spots, air yards and yards after the catch, read from the play-by-play
Where he's targeted11 targets charted
Run direction152 carries
Career
3 seasons since 2014 · box-score totals, snap share estimated from play-by-play
| Season | Team | G | Snaps | Car | Rush yds | Y/C | Rush TD | Rush SR | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Tgt share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 so far |  Buffalo#126 · 5-3 | 8 | 56% | 151 | 845 | 5.6 | 5 | 35.9% | 6 | 13 | 0 | 5.0% |
| 2025 | Buffalo#109 · 5-7 | 6 | 8% | 11 | 41 | 3.7 | 0 | 28.6% | 4 | -1 | 0 | 4.6% |
| 2024 | Buffalo#86 · 9-4 | 13 | 17% | 29 | 153 | 5.3 | 2 | 33.3% | 9 | 99 | 0 | 6.5% |
Past seasons are summed from ESPN box scores; success rates and snap shares come from the play-by-play. Messiah Burch's team rank is that season's final TDC rank. A dash means the stat wasn't recorded.
Game Log
Messiah Burch's box score, game by game, from ESPN, with a 0–10 game score for each (hover it for how it works). Click a result for the full game
| Rushing | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Game score | Car | Yds | Y/C | TD | Long |
| 1 |  UAlbany | W 21–17 | 6.6 | 8 | 74 | 9.3 | 0 | 47 |
| 2 | @ Florida International | L 20–33 | 4.1 | 10 | 16 | 1.6 | 0 | 8 |
| 3 | @ Penn State | L 13–55 | 4.0 | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 |  Robert Morris | W 31–28 | 7.3 | 26 | 146 | 5.6 | 0 | 43 |
| 5 |  Western Michigan | L 17–20 | 6.7 | 23 | 106 | 4.6 | 1 | 16 |
| 6 | @ Toledo | W 23–8 | 7.9 | 17 | 137 | 8.1 | 1 | 87 |
| 7 |  Massachusetts | W 25–18 | 7.5 | 28 | 172 | 6.1 | 0 | 46 |
| 8 |  Bowling Green | W 31–24 | 8.8 | 33 | 184 | 5.6 | 3 | 73 |
| 2026 · 8 games | 6.6 | 151 | 845 | 5.6 | 5 | 87 | ||
2026 Season Stats
FBS rank among qualifying players
| Rushing | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Carries | 151 | — |
| Yards | 845 | 14th / 1519 |
| Yards / carry | 5.6 | 66th / 312 |
| Touchdowns | 5 | 82nd / 683 |
| Long | 87 | — |
| Receiving | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 6 | 1004th / 2089 |
| Yards | 13 | 1681st / 2074 |
| Yards / catch | 2.2 | — |
| Touchdowns | 0 | — |
| Long | 9 | — |
| Defense | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Tackles | 0 | — |
| Solo | 0 | — |
| Tackles for loss | 0 | — |
| Sacks | 0 | — |
| QB hurries | 1 | — |
| Passes defended | 0 | — |
| Defensive TD | 0 | — |
Snaps by Game
Estimated snaps from a model trained on real NFL snap counts. Ranges in brackets are where the real number lands 80% of the time: wide for a single game, tighter over the season. How it works
| Game | Start | Team plays | Est. snaps | Plays involved | Snap share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 · UAlbany | — | 80 | ~28 (19–36) | 9 | 35% |
| Wk 2 · Florida International | — | 68 | ~32 (22–41) | 13 | 47% |
| Wk 3 · Penn State | — | 63 | ~16 (11–21) | 8 | 25% |
| Wk 4 · Robert Morris | ✓ RB | 91 | ~54 (46–60) | 29 | 59% |
| Wk 5 · Western Michigan | ✓ RB | 65 | ~41 (35–45) | 25 | 63% |
| Wk 6 · Toledo | — | 77 | ~45 (38–50) | 19 | 58% |
| Wk 7 · Massachusetts | — | 78 | ~57 (48–63) | 29 | 73% |
| Wk 8 · Bowling Green | — | 62 | ~54 (46–60) | 33 | 87% |
| Season | 2 GS | 584 | 327 (278–369) | 165 | 56% |
Position Room
6 RBs on the Buffalo roster, ordered by car
| # | Player | Pos | Class | Car | Yds | YPC | TD | Rec | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Messiah Burch | RB | SR | 151 | 845 | 5.6 | 5 | 6 | +0.07 |
| 0 | Nino Hill | RB | SO | 63 | 202 | 3.2 | 2 | — | +0.19 |
| 24 | James McNeil Jr. | RB | JR | 27 | 120 | 4.4 | 1 | — | — |
| 25 | Terrance Shelton Jr. | RB | JR | 23 | 80 | 3.5 | 0 | 4 | -0.32 |
| 21 | Devare Mathis | RB | SR | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 26 | Chase Enlow | RB | FR | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Stats, EPA and usage come from CollegeFootballData.com and refresh daily. FBS ranks only count players with enough volume for the stat to mean something. Qualifying for EPA takes 6+ plays per team game. Buffalo depth chart →