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MAC · 2026

Toledo Rockets

Head coach Mike Jacobs · Glass Bowl
6-23-1 in conference
TDC Rank
#77
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
-2.1
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
+0.3
71st in FBS
Defense
-2.5
85th in FBS
Schedule so far
-13.2
131st toughest
Projected
9.2-2.8
bowl-eligible >99%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

-2.1 now, -6.3 preseason · up 11 spots since preseason
-50FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8Wk 9#77

Final record odds

9.2-2.8 expected · most likely 9-3 (48%)
7-512%8-448%9-339%10-2

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
John Alan Richter
QB · JR · 10th in FBS
2244yds
17 TD · 2 INT
Rushing
CJ Miller
RB · JR · 47th in FBS
609yds
109 car · 7 TD
Receiving
Adjatay Dabbs
WR · JR · 44th in FBS
592yds
40 rec · 7 TD
Tackles
Julian Fox
LB · JR · 54th in FBS
64tkl
3 TFL
Sacks
Andrew Zock
DE · 6th in FBS
8sacks
17 hurries
Interceptions
Isaac Zay
LB · 49th in FBS
2INT
4 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 4@66Michigan StateL 20–30 ›-4.2—FS1
2Sep 12vsCentral Connecticut FCSW 63–10 ›+6.8—ESPN+
3Sep 19vs102TempleW 49–48 ›-12.9—CBSSN
4Sep 26vs98San Diego StateW 41–16 ›+11.1—CBSSN
5Oct 3@131Ball StateCONFW 39–24 ›-1.6—ESPN+
6Oct 10vs126BuffaloCONFL 8–23 ›-36.9—ESPN+
7Oct 17@124Eastern MichiganCONFW 34–14 ›+8.0—ESPN+
8Oct 24vs82Western MichiganCONFW 45–38 ›-0.6—CBSSN
9—Bye
10Nov 4@138Sacramento StateCONFToledo −21.6 · o/u 53.5—93%CBSSN
11Nov 11vs128MassachusettsCONFToledo −20.0 · o/u 52.5—91%
12Nov 20vs127Bowling GreenCONFToledo −19.9 · o/u 50.4—91%ESPN2
13Nov 27@87OhioCONFToledo −0.0 · o/u 54.8—50%

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.23725th-0.01620th
Success rate45.0%44th33.8%8th
Explosiveness1.31734th1.414133rd
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate45.8%39th33.9%8th
Rushing success rate44.1%65th30.5%3rd
Passing success rate47.5%30th37.2%29th
Explosive run rate14.2%59th12.3%54th
Explosive pass rate11.5%45th7.6%24th
Line yards / carry3.3036th2.8342nd
Opportunity rate40.9%47th31.3%13th
Stuff rate15.0%39th21.0%30th
Sack rate1.6%5th6.3%55th
3rd-down conversion41.5%63rd37.6%54th
Red-zone TD rate76.7%8th52.2%38th
Havoc rate10.5%17th14.1%64th
Box score · season totals
Points / game37.416th25.479th
Yards / game475.510th325.638th
Yards / play6.6313th4.5120th
Pass yards / game288.112th198.345th
Yards / pass att.8.7020th5.9618th
Completion %66.2%34th54.1%9th
Rush yards / game187.435th127.447th
Yards / carry5.0033rd3.5433rd
3rd-down conv. %43.0%45th35.3%42nd
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)1.2565th1.3845th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)0.757th2.8815th
Penalty yards / game74.0124th35.0136th

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
9.2
50th of 138
YAC per catch
5.8
49th of 138
Deep shots (20+)
15%
50th of 138
Shotgun
91%
104th of 138
No-huddle
88%
24th of 138
QB pressured
5%
138th of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
20%
6th of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
4.0
135th of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws257 throws charted

66% comp9.2 avg. depth5.8 YAC/catch15% 20+ air yds18–3 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 21 throws (8%), 20 caught (95%), 116 yds, 5.5 per throw2195% · 116yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 14 throws (5%), 12 caught (86%), 109 yds, 7.8 per throw1486% · 109yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 22 throws (9%), 16 caught (73%), 157 yds, 7.1 per throw2273% · 157yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 15 throws (6%), 8 caught (53%), 109 yds, 7.3 per throw1553% · 109yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 9 throws (4%), 3 caught (33%), 77 yds, 8.6 per throw933% · 77yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 14 throws (5%), 7 caught (50%), 154 yds, 11.0 per throw1450% · 154yLeft, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (1%), 2 caught (67%), 99 yds, 33.0 per throw367% · 99yMiddle, Behind air yards: 8 throws (3%), 6 caught (75%), 61 yds, 7.6 per throw875% · 61yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 17 throws (7%), 13 caught (76%), 124 yds, 7.3 per throw1776% · 124yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 15 throws (6%), 10 caught (67%), 97 yds, 6.5 per throw1567% · 97yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 9 throws (4%), 5 caught (56%), 105 yds, 11.7 per throw956% · 105yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 11 throws (4%), 7 caught (64%), 166 yds, 15.1 per throw1164% · 166yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 2 caught (40%), 54 yds, 10.8 per throw540% · 54yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 6 throws (2%), 2 caught (33%), 125 yds, 20.8 per throw633% · 125yRight, Behind air yards: 13 throws (5%), 11 caught (85%), 60 yds, 4.6 per throw1385% · 60yRight, 0–4 air yards: 21 throws (8%), 17 caught (81%), 112 yds, 5.3 per throw2181% · 112yRight, 5–9 air yards: 20 throws (8%), 11 caught (55%), 83 yds, 4.2 per throw2055% · 83yRight, 10–14 air yards: 14 throws (5%), 9 caught (64%), 136 yds, 9.7 per throw1464% · 136yRight, 15–19 air yards: 8 throws (3%), 5 caught (63%), 111 yds, 13.9 per throw863% · 111yRight, 20–29 air yards: 8 throws (3%), 2 caught (25%), 51 yds, 6.4 per throw825% · 51yRight, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (2%), 2 caught (50%), 83 yds, 20.8 per throw450% · 83y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on256 throws charted

54% comp9.0 avg. depth4.0 YAC/catch13% 20+ air yds12–5 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 12 throws (5%), 9 caught (75%), 34 yds, 2.8 per throw1275% · 34yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 17 throws (7%), 10 caught (59%), 47 yds, 2.8 per throw1759% · 47yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 37 throws (14%), 20 caught (54%), 167 yds, 4.5 per throw3754% · 167yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 14 throws (5%), 4 caught (29%), 51 yds, 3.6 per throw1429% · 51yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 4 caught (40%), 90 yds, 9.0 per throw1040% · 90yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 1 caught (20%), 26 yds, 5.2 per throw520% · 26yLeft, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (2%), 1 caught (25%), 49 yds, 12.3 per throw425% · 49yMiddle, Behind air yards: 5 throws (2%), 4 caught (80%), 5 yds, 1.0 per throw580% · 5yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 14 throws (5%), 11 caught (79%), 88 yds, 6.3 per throw1479% · 88yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 13 throws (5%), 4 caught (31%), 32 yds, 2.5 per throw1331% · 32yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 11 throws (4%), 7 caught (64%), 101 yds, 9.2 per throw1164% · 101yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (2%), 3 caught (50%), 81 yds, 13.5 per throw650% · 81yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 6 throws (2%), 1 caught (17%), 21 yds, 3.5 per throw617% · 21yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (2%), 1 caught (25%), 41 yds, 10.3 per throw425% · 41yRight, Behind air yards: 13 throws (5%), 9 caught (69%), 33 yds, 2.5 per throw1369% · 33yRight, 0–4 air yards: 27 throws (11%), 22 caught (81%), 137 yds, 5.1 per throw2781% · 137yRight, 5–9 air yards: 27 throws (11%), 14 caught (52%), 134 yds, 5.0 per throw2752% · 134yRight, 10–14 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 5 caught (50%), 66 yds, 6.6 per throw1050% · 66yRight, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 3 caught (43%), 61 yds, 8.7 per throw743% · 61yRight, 20–29 air yards: 8 throws (3%), 3 caught (38%), 53 yds, 6.6 per throw838% · 53yRight, 30+ air yards: 6 throws (2%), 4 caught (67%), 184 yds, 30.7 per throw667% · 184y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction280 carries

Left
15%
6.7 YPC · 54% succ.
Middle
66%
4.8 YPC · 46% succ.
Right
19%
4.8 YPC · 52% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced260 carries

Left
16%
7.3 YPC · 56% succ.
Middle
65%
3.2 YPC · 24% succ.
Right
20%
6.7 YPC · 47% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Mike Jacobs

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
6John Alan RichterQBJR6' 3"225Gray, GA
7Khamoni RobinsonQBJR6' 1"195Monroe, NC
11Walter MosesQBFR6' 4"190Perry, OH
13Jake DeHaanQBJR6' 2"203Byron Center, MI
4Autavius IsonRBJR5' 11"190Atlanta, GA
20Corey SmithRBSO5' 10"175Milwaukee, WI
22CJ MillerRBJR5' 11"230Gadsden, AL
23Noah SandersRBFR5' 11"170Franklin, MI
27Dane NaumanRBSO6' 0"210Marengo, OH
29Tanner RubinsteinFBSR6' 3"235Napoleon, OH
1Rico BondWRSO177St. Louis, MO
2Trenton JonesWRFR5' 10"185Hastings, FL
3Adjatay DabbsWRJR6' 0"170Greeneville, TN
5Terrell Crosby Jr.WRSR5' 10"182St. Petersburg, FL
9Kalvin Gilbert Jr.WRJR6' 4"181Jacksonville, FL
10Seth ElchertWRFR6' 3"190Findlay, OH
12Bryson HammerWRJR5' 11"180Fremont, OH
13Cooper RuskWRSR5' 10"190Macedonia, OH
14Tashi BracefulWRSO6' 2"187Southfield, MI
19Daryl Barnett Jr.WRSO6' 2"195Toledo, OH
83Omar Mims Jr.WRFR6' 0"165East St. Louis, IL
85Anthony SimpsonWRSR5' 11"186Hartford, CT
43Sam LeeTESR6' 6"238Toledo, OH
80Peyton StricklandTESR6' 3"235Goffstown, NH
81Ethan MalafaTESR6' 6"250Cincinnati, OH
87Tucker KelleherTESO6' 6"225Alpharetta, GA
88Jacob NewellTESR6' 4"245Springfield, OR
50Luke RectorOLJR6' 5"300Valdese, NC
56Jacob KropchakOLSO6' 4"296Rochester Hills, MI
58Jake PaluckiOLFR6' 5"270Tinley Park, IL
60Jake GrimmOLSO6' 4"295Gahanna, OH
62Christian MedlockOLJR6' 5"304Homewood, IL
65Stephen GalesOLSR6' 6"290Alliance, OH
69Dominic JohnsonOLSO6' 3"290Ocala, FL
70Nick ThomasOLSR6' 4"311East Orange, NJ
71Matt HoferOLSO6' 5"288Valparaiso, IN
72Brian MahoneyOLJR6' 7"316Duxbury, MA
73Jonathan HarderOLSR6' 4"330Delaware, OH
74Ahmad CarwiseOLSO6' 5"300Piedmont, SC
75Preston DazeyOLFR
75Preston DazeyOLFRMassillon
76Vincenzo PizzoOLFR
76Vincenzo PizzoOLFRSaint Clair Shores
78Dylan SendaOLJR6' 5"303Livonia, MI
93Leonard SharpDLSR6' 4"283Bedford, OH
95Wayne Peart IIDLSO6' 4"265Pembroke Pines, FL
96Nathaniel ChandlerDLJR6' 4"269Smyrna, DE
2Ezra OdinjorDEJR6' 3"240Kennesaw, GA
21Ben SahakianDESR6' 3"245Mount Prospect, IL
37Desmond OkanteyDEFR6' 2"242Westerville, OH
51Zackery SamuelDEFR6' 1"251Sarasota, FL
53Samuel TonioloDEFR6' 4"245Avon, OH
85Josh LeeDESR6' 6"238Toledo, OH
90Zach JohnsonDESO6' 3"240Ocala, FL
92Tommy HussDEJR6' 3"227Lambertville, MI
97Brian Stovall Jr.DEFR6' 2"228Romulus, MI
41Cam GwinnDTFR6' 2"256Columbus, OH
43Tyrell O'NealDTFR
43Tyrell O'NealDTFRGarfield Heights
48Jordin FarrowDTFR6' 3"292Inkster, MI
52Lucas Lambert-PipkinDTJR6' 2"285Cranberry Township, PA
91Laith ShammaDTJR6' 6"280Ann Arbor, MI
94Adrian Love Jr.DTFR6' 2"290Tuscaloosa, AL
98Micah Fils-AimeDTFR5' 11"275Naples, FL
99Caden CameseDTSR6' 1"285Bellevue, NE
5Damon Ollison IILBSR6' 0"224Akron, OH
6Langston LongLBSR6' 3"225Woodbridge, VA
10Julian FoxLBJR6' 1"220Cordele, GA
13Kari JacksonLBSO6' 1"238West Bloomfield, MI
19Isaac PrinceLBSR6' 0"215Snellville, GA
28Sam Smith Jr.LBJR6' 4"223Delta, OH
29Jordan FoxLBFR5' 11"223Cordele, GA
30Hayden RoyLBFR6' 1"200Lyons, GA
31Maddox ArnoldLBFR6' 2"225Cincinnati, OH
36Nathan GershLBFR
36Nathan GershLBFRDexter
1Cam JonesCBJR5' 11"190Reading, PA
8KJ ThomasCBSO5' 11"180Conyers, GA
11Hyajah MillerCBSO6' 2"175North Lauderdale, FL
20LaDavion OsbornCBSR6' 1"183Tyler, TX
23Israel PetiteCBSO5' 11"170Macedonia, OH
24Bo JacobsCBFR6' 0"185Fairburn, GA
25Tyrell RussellCBFR5' 11"175Columbus, OH
7Armorion SmithSSR6' 1"212River Rouge, MI
12Mo ContehSSR6' 0"190Columbus, OH
15Michael-Arinze EzirimSSO6' 1"183Dublin, OH
17Kaleb HutchinsonSSR6' 0"185Augusta, GA
22Nicholas ThompsonSJR6' 2"206Fort Wayne, IN
26Tyler HackenbrachtSFR6' 2"210Massillon, OH
27Ziiyahn BlairSFR
27Ziiyahn BlairSFRAkron
33Andrew FineskeSSO6' 1"190Sylvania, OH
39Dylan HohlerSJR6' 4"196Huron, OH
39Anthony RugglesPKFR5' 9"170Youngstown, OH
93Reice GriffithPKSR5' 11"170Pace, FL
36Emilio DuranPSR6' 0"200Ottawa Hills, OH
46Hunter ProbstPFR6' 5"210Santa Rosa, CA
47Markus MeinckePJR6' 7"220Hamburg, Germany
45Reece StrittmatterLSFR6' 5"200Adel, IA
49Max AllenLSFR6' 4"205Holly Springs, NC

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2015 (+8.1, #27) · worst: 2019 (-7.4, #109)
-10-50+5+10FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#33
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far6-23-1#77-2.1+0.3-2.5
20258-56-2#33+5.90.0+5.9
20248-54-4#73-0.4-0.1-0.2
202311-38-0#50+2.9+1.8+1.1
20229-55-3#69+0.4+0.40.0
20217-65-3#53+3.2+1.2+2.0
20204-24-2#51+2.0+1.1+0.9
20196-63-5#109-7.4-2.0-5.5
20187-65-3#58+1.6+7.2-5.5
201711-37-1#41+4.4+5.1-0.7
20169-46-2#30+6.5+6.4+0.1
201510-26-2#27+8.1+3.7+4.4
20149-47-1#68-0.7+4.4-5.2

Toledo's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Nov 3, 12:25 PM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →