The TDC Rating after every week of the season
Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result / TDC line | Game score | Win chance | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | @ 66Kentucky | L 16–24 | -4.7 | — | SEC Network |
| 2 | Sep 6 | vs 78Western Kentucky | W 45–21 | +19.0 | — | ESPN+ |
| 3 | Sep 13 | vs Morgan State FCS | W 60–0 | +11.8 | — | ESPN+ |
| 4 | Sep 20 | @ 67Western MichiganCONF | L 13–14 | +2.1 | — | ESPN+ |
| 5 | Sep 27 | vs 120AkronCONF | W 45–3 | +16.4 | — | ESPN+ |
| 6 | — | Bye | ||||
| 7 | Oct 11 | @ 113Bowling GreenCONF | L 23–28 | -10.9 | — | ESPNU |
| 8 | Oct 18 | vs 129Kent StateCONF | W 45–10 | +12.0 | — | ESPN+ |
| 9 | Oct 25 | @ 50Washington State | L 7–28 | -14.9 | — | CW |
| 10 | — | Bye | ||||
| 11 | Nov 5 | vs 119Northern IllinoisCONF | W 42–3 | +15.6 | — | ESPN2 |
| 12 | Nov 12 | @ 85Miami (OH)CONF | W 24–3 | +21.0 | — | ESPN2 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | vs 132Ball StateCONF | W 38–9 | +8.5 | — | ESPN+ |
| 14 | Nov 29 | @ 96Central MichiganCONF | W 21–3 | +15.1 | — | ESPN+ |
| Bowls | Dec 23 | vs 24LouisvilleNEUTRAL | L 22–27 | +3.0 | — | ESPN |
Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted
| Stat | Offense | FBS rank | Defense (allowed) | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play) | ||||
| Success rate | 43.7% | 55th | 33.2% | 4th |
| Rushing success rate | 44.1% | 68th | 38.4% | 15th |
| Passing success rate | 43.3% | 47th | 27.4% | 1st |
| Explosive run rate | 16.8% | 22nd | 7.8% | 4th |
| Explosive pass rate | 11.4% | 36th | 8.3% | 31st |
| Line yards / carry | 3.16 | 47th | 2.37 | 6th |
| Opportunity rate | 39.1% | 64th | 33.9% | 23rd |
| Stuff rate | 18.2% | 86th | 21.3% | 15th |
| Sack rate | 2.8% | 8th | 10.3% | 1st |
| 3rd-down conversion | 39.4% | 88th | 30.9% | 7th |
| Red-zone TD rate | 57.1% | 73rd | 41.7% | 7th |
| Havoc rate | 9.3% | 18th | 17.1% | 1st |
| Box score · season totals | ||||
| Points / game | 33.1 | 27th | 13.3 | 3rd |
| Yards / game | 415.2 | 34th | 254.3 | 2nd |
| Yards / play | 6.07 | 25th | 3.85 | 3rd |
| Pass yards / game | 238.1 | 57th | 137.4 | 2nd |
| Yards / pass att. | 7.76 | 40th | 5.82 | 7th |
| Completion % | 64.2% | 43rd | 50.1% | 2nd |
| Rush yards / game | 177.2 | 41st | 96.3 | 9th |
| Yards / carry | 4.88 | 30th | 2.68 | 3rd |
| 3rd-down conv. % | 40.2% | 65th | — | — |
| Turnovers / game (lost · forced) | 1.15 | 50th | — | — |
| Sacks / game (allowed · made) | 1.38 | 24th | 2.92 | 11th |
| Penalty yards / game | 74.7 | 135th | — | — |
79 players who recorded a stat in 2025 (from box scores)
Final ratings for 2025, built with the same model as the current season. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. All 2025 power rankings →