
The TDC Rating after every week of the season
Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result / TDC line | Game score | Win chance | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | vs Idaho FCS | W 13–10 | -21.8 | — | CW |
| 2 | Sep 6 | vs 54San Diego State | W 36–13 | +22.6 | — | CW |
| 3 | Sep 13 | @ 23North Texas | L 10–59 | -21.5 | — | ESPNU |
| 4 | Sep 20 | vs 17Washington | L 24–59 | -20.3 | — | CBS |
| 5 | Sep 27 | @ 123Colorado State | W 20–3 | +8.5 | — | CBSSN |
| 6 | — | Bye | ||||
| 7 | Oct 11 | @ 9Ole Miss | L 21–24 | +13.5 | — | SEC Network |
| 8 | Oct 18 | @ 30Virginia | L 20–22 | +7.4 | — | CW |
| 9 | Oct 25 | vs 33Toledo | W 28–7 | +24.1 | — | CW |
| 10 | Nov 1 | @ 118Oregon StateCONF | L 7–10 | -10.8 | — | CBS |
| 11 | — | Bye | ||||
| 12 | Nov 15 | vs 80Louisiana Tech | W 28–3 | +19.1 | — | CW |
| 13 | Nov 22 | @ 19James Madison | L 20–24 | +9.0 | — | ESPN+ |
| 14 | Nov 29 | vs 118Oregon StateCONF | W 32–8 | +10.6 | — | CW |
| Bowls | Dec 22 | vs 79Utah StateNEUTRAL | W 34–21 | +10.7 | — | ESPN |
Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted
| Stat | Offense | FBS rank | Defense (allowed) | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play) | ||||
| Success rate | 43.0% | 66th | 40.5% | 47th |
| Rushing success rate | 45.2% | 55th | 44.5% | 79th |
| Passing success rate | 41.0% | 67th | 36.2% | 20th |
| Explosive run rate | 12.0% | 110th | 14.5% | 79th |
| Explosive pass rate | 8.5% | 103rd | 7.7% | 18th |
| Line yards / carry | 3.00 | 83rd | 3.10 | 79th |
| Opportunity rate | 37.2% | 85th | 38.0% | 67th |
| Stuff rate | 17.9% | 78th | 17.2% | 67th |
| Sack rate | 3.7% | 26th | 7.4% | 14th |
| 3rd-down conversion | 41.4% | 64th | 34.2% | 15th |
| Red-zone TD rate | 51.2% | 105th | 65.4% | 112th |
| Havoc rate | 11.1% | 67th | 11.9% | 66th |
| Box score · season totals | ||||
| Points / game | 22.5 | 109th | 22.9 | 38th |
| Yards / game | 338.7 | 107th | 299.5 | 15th |
| Yards / play | 5.05 | 106th | 4.80 | 29th |
| Pass yards / game | 210.5 | 89th | 155.7 | 11th |
| Yards / pass att. | 6.69 | 95th | 6.44 | 30th |
| Completion % | 64.1% | 46th | 63.6% | 94th |
| Rush yards / game | 128.2 | 101st | 125.2 | 33rd |
| Yards / carry | 3.79 | 103rd | 3.79 | 48th |
| 3rd-down conv. % | 38.1% | 87th | — | — |
| Turnovers / game (lost · forced) | 1.62 | 107th | — | — |
| Sacks / game (allowed · made) | 1.77 | 60th | 2.38 | 37th |
| Penalty yards / game | 56.1 | 81st | — | — |
69 players who recorded a stat in 2025 (from box scores)
Final ratings for 2025, built with the same model as the current season. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. All 2025 power rankings →