
The TDC Rating after every week of the season
Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result / TDC line | Game score | Win chance | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | vs 82California | L 15–34 | -24.4 | — | ESPN |
| 2 | Sep 6 | vs 73Fresno State | L 27–36 | -12.6 | — | CW |
| 3 | Sep 13 | @ 4Texas Tech | L 14–45 | -5.8 | — | FOX |
| 4 | Sep 20 | @ 5Oregon | L 7–41 | -7.0 | — | BTN |
| 5 | Sep 26 | vs 52Houston | L 24–27 | -2.9 | — | ESPN |
| 6 | Oct 4 | @ 115App State | L 23–27 | -10.1 | — | ESPN+ |
| 7 | Oct 11 | vs 57Wake Forest | L 14–39 | -24.9 | — | CW |
| 8 | Oct 18 | vs Lafayette FCS | W 45–13 | +2.0 | — | CW |
| 9 | — | Bye | ||||
| 10 | Nov 1 | vs 50Washington StateCONF | W 10–7 | +3.5 | — | CBS |
| 11 | Nov 8 | vs 134Sam Houston | L 17–21 | -24.0 | — | CW |
| 12 | Nov 15 | @ 116Tulsa | L 14–31 | -24.5 | — | ESPN+ |
| 13 | — | Bye | ||||
| 14 | Nov 29 | @ 50Washington StateCONF | L 8–32 | -17.9 | — | CW |
Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted
| Stat | Offense | FBS rank | Defense (allowed) | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play) | ||||
| Success rate | 42.5% | 71st | 40.0% | 39th |
| Rushing success rate | 43.4% | 84th | 43.8% | 74th |
| Passing success rate | 41.7% | 60th | 36.3% | 21st |
| Explosive run rate | 12.6% | 97th | 15.8% | 111th |
| Explosive pass rate | 8.7% | 101st | 13.0% | 125th |
| Line yards / carry | 2.90 | 101st | 2.84 | 31st |
| Opportunity rate | 32.9% | 127th | 37.3% | 55th |
| Stuff rate | 13.8% | 23rd | 19.9% | 27th |
| Sack rate | 5.2% | 65th | 3.9% | 119th |
| 3rd-down conversion | 35.9% | 111th | 33.3% | 12th |
| Red-zone TD rate | 63.3% | 41st | 54.5% | 51st |
| Havoc rate | 10.3% | 38th | 11.4% | 77th |
| Box score · season totals | ||||
| Points / game | 21.0 | 118th | 29.4 | 86th |
| Yards / game | 349.8 | 95th | 379.8 | 75th |
| Yards / play | 4.85 | 117th | 5.90 | 113th |
| Pass yards / game | 225.8 | 66th | 213.7 | 84th |
| Yards / pass att. | 6.29 | 120th | 7.67 | 107th |
| Completion % | 60.3% | 88th | 56.9% | 22nd |
| Rush yards / game | 123.9 | 107th | 157.4 | 81st |
| Yards / carry | 3.65 | 111th | 4.61 | 96th |
| 3rd-down conv. % | 35.9% | 102nd | — | — |
| Turnovers / game (lost · forced) | 1.67 | 113th | — | — |
| Sacks / game (allowed · made) | 2.17 | 91st | 1.25 | 124th |
| Penalty yards / game | 49.9 | 53rd | — | — |
70 players who recorded a stat in 2025 (from box scores)
Final ratings for 2025, built with the same model as the current season. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. All 2025 power rankings →