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Big Ten · 2026

Penn State Nittany Lions

Head coach Matt Campbell · Beaver Stadium
4-41-4 in conference
TDC Rank
#26
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
+12.3
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
+4.3
43rd in FBS
Defense
+8.0
23rd in FBS
Schedule so far
+0.8
46th toughest
Projected
7.0-5.0
bowl-eligible 96%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

+12.3 now, +17.4 preseason · down 15 spots since preseason
0+10+20FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8Wk 9#27

Final record odds

7.0-5.0 expected · most likely 7-5 (44%)
5-721%6-644%7-531%8-4

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Rocco Becht
QB · SR · 38th in FBS
1839yds
13 TD · 5 INT
Rushing
Carson Hansen
RB · SR · 155th in FBS
374yds
89 car · 5 TD
Receiving
Chase Sowell
WR · SR · 66th in FBS
510yds
34 rec · 3 TD
Tackles
Tony Rojas
LB · JR · 101st in FBS
58tkl
10.5 TFL
Sacks
Tony Rojas
LB · JR · 36th in FBS
5sacks
3 hurries
Interceptions
Tony Rojas
LB · JR · 49th in FBS
2INT
2 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 5vs110MarshallW 45–0 ›+15.8—FS1
2Sep 12@102TempleW 27–9 ›+11.5—ESPN2
3Sep 19vs126BuffaloW 55–13 ›+8.4—BTN
4Sep 26vs33WisconsinCONFL 20–24 ›+3.8—Peacock
5Oct 2@24NorthwesternCONFL 13–34 ›-4.5—Fox
6Oct 10vs23USCCONFL 23–31 ›+1.8—NBC
7Oct 17@37MichiganCONFL 18–21 ›+9.1—CBS
8—Bye
9Oct 31vs71PurdueCONFW 31–17 ›+10.7—BTN
10Nov 7@43WashingtonCONFPenn State −1.3 · o/u 46.4—54%FS1
11Nov 14vs52MinnesotaCONFPenn State −11.2 · o/u 43.9—77%
12Nov 21vs94RutgersCONFPenn State −23.1 · o/u 57.8—94%
13Nov 28@79MarylandCONFPenn State −10.9 · o/u 50.5—77%

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.14066th+0.06856th
Success rate41.3%79th38.5%34th
Explosiveness1.23874th1.326113th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate40.8%96th37.9%30th
Rushing success rate38.4%117th42.1%67th
Passing success rate43.2%55th33.7%9th
Explosive run rate6.9%136th15.8%117th
Explosive pass rate11.2%50th6.8%17th
Line yards / carry2.90108th2.9861st
Opportunity rate34.5%117th40.1%102nd
Stuff rate11.2%4th21.3%25th
Sack rate5.1%68th4.5%99th
3rd-down conversion35.1%114th31.4%11th
Red-zone TD rate65.2%50th62.5%87th
Havoc rate12.2%44th17.7%11th
Box score · season totals
Points / game29.065th18.624th
Yards / game393.363rd296.318th
Yards / play5.6863rd4.9744th
Pass yards / game245.348th141.43rd
Yards / pass att.7.8051st5.462nd
Completion %63.7%61st53.6%5th
Rush yards / game148.080th154.988th
Yards / carry4.1087th4.76110th
3rd-down conv. %36.1%98th27.0%4th
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)0.8825th1.6222nd
Sacks / game (allowed · made)1.6248th1.25114th
Penalty yards / game46.833rd47.0109th

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
9.7
33rd of 138
YAC per catch
5.3
75th of 138
Deep shots (20+)
17%
28th of 138
Shotgun
83%
124th of 138
No-huddle
72%
58th of 138
QB pressured
10%
112th of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
18%
21st of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
5.1
78th of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws216 throws charted

63% comp9.7 avg. depth5.3 YAC/catch17% 20+ air yds13–5 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 14 throws (6%), 13 caught (93%), 74 yds, 5.3 per throw1493% · 74yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 19 throws (9%), 14 caught (74%), 84 yds, 4.4 per throw1974% · 84yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 15 throws (7%), 13 caught (87%), 129 yds, 8.6 per throw1587% · 129yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 3 caught (60%), 46 yds, 9.2 per throw560% · 46yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 3 throws (1%), 1 caught (33%), 19 yds, 6.3 per throw333% · 19yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 2 caught (29%), 49 yds, 7.0 per throw729% · 49yLeft, 30+ air yards: 6 throws (3%), 1 caught (17%), 35 yds, 5.8 per throw617% · 35yMiddle, Behind air yards: 1 throws (0%), 1 caught (100%), 13 yds, 13.0 per throw1100% · 13yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 11 throws (5%), 10 caught (91%), 84 yds, 7.6 per throw1191% · 84yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 14 throws (6%), 5 caught (36%), 42 yds, 3.0 per throw1436% · 42yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 11 throws (5%), 7 caught (64%), 120 yds, 10.9 per throw1164% · 120yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 5 caught (71%), 143 yds, 20.4 per throw771% · 143yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 5 caught (83%), 132 yds, 22.0 per throw683% · 132yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (1%), 1 caught (33%), 56 yds, 18.7 per throw333% · 56yRight, Behind air yards: 12 throws (6%), 11 caught (92%), 80 yds, 6.7 per throw1292% · 80yRight, 0–4 air yards: 26 throws (12%), 20 caught (77%), 123 yds, 4.7 per throw2677% · 123yRight, 5–9 air yards: 25 throws (12%), 15 caught (60%), 153 yds, 6.1 per throw2560% · 153yRight, 10–14 air yards: 11 throws (5%), 7 caught (64%), 102 yds, 9.3 per throw1164% · 102yRight, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 2 caught (33%), 40 yds, 6.7 per throw633% · 40yRight, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 2 caught (40%), 57 yds, 11.4 per throw540% · 57yRight, 30+ air yards: 9 throws (4%), 2 caught (22%), 84 yds, 9.3 per throw922% · 84y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on186 throws charted

53% comp8.7 avg. depth5.1 YAC/catch15% 20+ air yds6–9 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 19 throws (10%), 18 caught (95%), 69 yds, 3.6 per throw1995% · 69yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 14 throws (8%), 8 caught (57%), 42 yds, 3.0 per throw1457% · 42yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 13 throws (7%), 7 caught (54%), 61 yds, 4.7 per throw1354% · 61yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 8 throws (4%), 3 caught (38%), 31 yds, 3.9 per throw838% · 31yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw60% · 0yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 3 caught (43%), 82 yds, 11.7 per throw743% · 82yLeft, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw40% · 0yMiddle, Behind air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 1 yds, 0.5 per throw250% · 1yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 8 throws (4%), 5 caught (63%), 25 yds, 3.1 per throw863% · 25yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 10 throws (5%), 6 caught (60%), 46 yds, 4.6 per throw1060% · 46yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 4 caught (57%), 50 yds, 7.1 per throw757% · 50yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 3 throws (2%), 3 caught (100%), 114 yds, 38.0 per throw3100% · 114yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 1 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 1 throws (1%), 1 caught (100%), 31 yds, 31.0 per throw1100% · 31yRight, Behind air yards: 20 throws (11%), 13 caught (65%), 89 yds, 4.5 per throw2065% · 89yRight, 0–4 air yards: 19 throws (10%), 14 caught (74%), 119 yds, 6.3 per throw1974% · 119yRight, 5–9 air yards: 17 throws (9%), 6 caught (35%), 56 yds, 3.3 per throw1735% · 56yRight, 10–14 air yards: 8 throws (4%), 1 caught (13%), 11 yds, 1.4 per throw813% · 11yRight, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 5 caught (71%), 90 yds, 12.9 per throw771% · 90yRight, 20–29 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 1 caught (17%), 33 yds, 5.5 per throw617% · 33yRight, 30+ air yards: 6 throws (3%), 2 caught (33%), 78 yds, 13.0 per throw633% · 78y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction276 carries

Left
18%
7.0 YPC · 49% succ.
Middle
64%
3.2 YPC · 34% succ.
Right
17%
5.9 YPC · 58% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced231 carries

Left
19%
6.0 YPC · 52% succ.
Middle
68%
5.5 YPC · 40% succ.
Right
13%
4.1 YPC · 50% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Matt Campbell

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
3Rocco BechtQBSR6' 1"208Wesley Chapel, FL
7Alex ManskeQBFR6' 3"210Algona, IA
10Connor BarryQBSR6' 1"211Vienna, VA
12Kase EvansQBFR6' 3"200Lexington, TX
14Peyton FalzoneQBFR6' 5"216Nazareth, PA
19Jack LambertQBJR6' 3"202Hampstead, NC
1James PeoplesRBJR5' 10"214San Antonio, TX
21Carson HansenRBSR6' 2"216Lakeville, MN
25Quinton Martin Jr.RBSO6' 1"212Belle Vernon, PA
29D'Antae SheffeyRBFR5' 11"201State College, PA
36Amar'e GloverRBFR6' 0"205Middletown, DE
0Chase SowellWRSR6' 3"203Humble, TX
2Zay RobinsonWRFR5' 11"186Des Moines, IA
4Brett EskildsenWRJR6' 1"198Frisco, TX
6Koby HowardWRSO5' 11"203Pensacola, FL
7Peter GonzalezWRSO6' 2"211Mars, PA
8Karon BrookinsWRFR6' 5"205Pennsauken, NJ
9Amarion JacksonWRFR6' 2"192Omaha, NE
11Lyrick SamuelWRFR6' 4"183Brooklyn, NY
13Hank LustigWRFR5' 9"170State College, PA
15Keith Jones Jr.WRSO6' 4"197New Orleans, LA
31Logan CunninghamWRSR5' 8"183Belle Vernon, PA
37Max HeffnerWRFR5' 11"176Birdsboro, PA
82Ethan BlackWRJR5' 9"178Davidsville, PA
18Benjamin BrahmerTESR6' 7"250Pierce, NE
80Cooper AlexanderTESO6' 4"241Washington, OK
83Brian KortovichTEFR6' 4"241Willoughby, OH
84Gabe BurkleTESR6' 6"247Cedar Rapids, IA
87Andrew RappleyeaTEJR6' 4"242Millbrook, NY
89Finn FurmanekTEJR6' 3"251State College, PA
50Cooper CousinsOLJR6' 6"320Erie, PA
51Brock RikerOLSO6' 4"291Brock, TX
52Dominic RulliOLSR6' 3"298Burlington, KY
54Vaea IkakoulaOLFR6' 3"326Laie, HI
55Chimdy OnohOLJR6' 5"320Baltimore, MD
56Mason BandhauerOLFR6' 6"297Fort Collins, CO
61Liam HoranOLSO6' 3"292West Chester, PA
65Jim FitzgeraldOLSR6' 7"337Severna Park, MD
67Henry BoehmeOLJR6' 5"285Birmingham, AL
68Anthony DonkohOLJR6' 5"334Aldie, VA
70Trevor BuhrOLJR6' 4"318Washington, MO
71Garrett SextonOLSO6' 6"315Hartland, WI
72Tyshon HuffOLJR6' 4"292Cincinnati, OH
74Kuol Kuol IIOLFR6' 6"291Centerville, OH
75Pete EglitisOLFR6' 7"295Columbus, OH
76Hunter AlbrightOLFR6' 5"326Hollidaysburg, PA
77Owen AlicieneOLFR6' 7"303Cheshire, CT
78Malachi GoodmanOLFR6' 6"330Bloomfield, NJ
79Donnie HarbourOLSO6' 3"333Milwaukee, WI
88Elijah ReederDLFR6' 6"210Bayville, NJ
1Ikenna EzeoguDESR6' 5"273Blue Springs, MO
11LaVar Arrington IIDESO6' 3"220Annapolis, MD
18Max GranvilleDESO6' 3"252Sugar Land, TX
19Yvan KemajouDESO6' 3"252Burtonsville, MD
33Alexander McPhersonDESO6' 6"254Stuart, FL
42Mason RobinsonDEJR6' 3"255Randallstown, MD
43Dayshaun BurnettDEFR6' 3"226Pittsburgh, PA
47Aidan ProbstDESO6' 2"246Erie, PA
86Bobby MearsDEJR6' 4"257West Chester, PA
89Jackson FordDEFR6' 4"264Phoenixville, PA
39Ty BlandingDTJR6' 1"301Bronx, NY
56Alijah CarnellDTSO6' 5"299Henderson, NV
73Caleb BrewerDTSO6' 4"295Reading, PA
90Liam AndrewsDTSO6' 4"276Brookline, MA
91Armstrong NnodimDTSO6' 2"310Mesquite, TX
92Siale TaupakiDTSR6' 2"326East Oakland, CA
94De'Andre CookDTSO6' 4"298Washington, DC
8Kooper EbelLBSR6' 4"233Hartley, IA
9Cael BrezinaLBJR6' 3"233Downers Grove, IL
10Caleb BaconLBSR6' 4"242Lake Mills, IA
13Tony RojasLBJR6' 2"236Fairfax, VA
25Alex TatschLBSO6' 2"235Latrobe, PA
26Cam SmithLBFR6' 0"222Salem, NJ
32John KlostermanLBSR5' 11"223Iowa City, IA
34Chris FileppoLBSO6' 4"219Doylestown, PA
40Keian KaiserLBFR6' 4"215Sidney, NE
40Jake LukacLBFR6' 1"210State College, PA
45Josh BanksLBFR6' 1"200Hollidaysburg, PA
0Jahmir JosephCBFR6' 0"190Nyack, NY
2Audavion CollinsCBSR5' 11"183Covington, GA
5Daryus DixsonCBSO6' 0"184Perris, CA
12Xxavier ThomasCBFR5' 11"180Canonsburg, PA
15Joshua JohnsonCBFR6' 2"189Ironton, OH
16Donte NastasiCBJR5' 10"169State College, PA
20Tyrell ChatmanCBFR6' 2"196Lincoln, NE
29Hunter SowellCBFR5' 10"180Humble, TX
35Tyler ArmsteadCBSO6' 1"177Canonsburg, PA
3Jamison PattonSSR6' 2"206Des Moines, IA
4Jeremiah CooperSSR6' 0"188El Paso, TX
24Ibn McDanielsSSO6' 3"202Elizabeth, NJ
27Omarion DavisSSO5' 11"198Charlotte, NC
30Christian AskewSFR6' 4"199Kathleen, GA
31Marcus Neal Jr.SJR6' 1"216Kansas City, MO
41Jake LaVerdeSFR6' 2"210Kirtland, OH
94Ryan BarkerPKJR6' 2"191Landenberg, PA
95Cristiano RosaPKSR5' 11"205Shelton, CT
98Matthew ParkerPKFR6' 0"224York, PA
96Lucas TenbrockPFR6' 6"210St. Charles, IL
35Blaise Sokach-MinnickLSSR6' 3"216West Pittston, PA
92Andrew DufaultLSSO6' 1"249Westwood, MA

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2017 (+19.1, #2) · worst: 2014 (+1.3, #57)
0+10+20FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#18
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far4-41-4#26+12.3+4.3+8.0
20257-63-6#18+10.2+5.1+5.1
202413-38-1#4+16.2+6.0+10.3
202310-37-2#6+16.3+6.0+10.3
202211-27-2#6+14.8+6.5+8.2
20217-64-5#19+7.7+0.3+7.3
20204-54-5#36+4.6+2.6+2.0
201911-27-2#7+15.5+5.7+9.8
20189-46-3#9+12.3+5.4+6.9
201711-27-2#2+19.1+10.3+8.8
201611-38-1#11+11.9+8.4+3.5
20157-64-4#58+2.9-2.8+5.7
20147-62-6#57+1.3-5.7+7.0

Penn State's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Nov 3, 12:25 PM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →