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Big Ten · 2026

USC Trojans

Head coach Lincoln Riley · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
7-24-2 in conference
TDC Rank
#23
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
+13.5
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
+9.1
15th in FBS
Defense
+4.4
40th in FBS
Schedule so far
+5.2
16th toughest
Projected
8.4-3.6
bowl-eligible >99%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

+13.5 now, +13.3 preseason · down 5 spots since preseason
0+5+10+15FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8Wk 9#23

Final record odds

8.4-3.6 expected · most likely 8-4 (52%)
5%7-552%8-437%9-36%10-2

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Jayden Maiava
QB · SR · 6th in FBS
2525yds
20 TD · 5 INT
Rushing
King Miller
RB · SO · 31st in FBS
681yds
138 car · 5 TD
Receiving
Trent Mosley
WR · FR · 64th in FBS
512yds
32 rec · 6 TD
Tackles
Deven Bryant
LB · JR · 137th in FBS
55tkl
0.5 TFL
Sacks
Kennedy Urlacher
S · 147th in FBS
3sacks
0 hurries
Interceptions
Prophet Brown
CB · SR · 49th in FBS
2INT
3 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Aug 29vs123San José StateW 42–26 ›-3.4—NBC
1Sep 4vs75Fresno StateW 39–0 ›+23.9—FOX
2Sep 12vs89LouisianaW 49–30 ›+9.4—BTN
3Sep 19@94RutgersCONFW 42–35 ›+3.6—CBS
4Sep 26vs11OregonCONFL 27–41 ›+1.5—NBC
5Oct 3vs43WashingtonCONFW 25–21 ›+7.6—NBC
6Oct 10@26Penn StateCONFW 31–23 ›+24.1—NBC
7—Bye
8Oct 24@33WisconsinCONFL 7–24 ›-1.8—NBC
9Oct 31vs2Ohio StateCONFW 30–18 ›+34.7—NBC
10—Bye
11Nov 14@6IndianaCONFIndiana −13.9 · o/u 52.0—18%
12Nov 21vs79MarylandCONFUSC −19.5 · o/u 58.8—91%
13Nov 28@17UCLACONFUCLA −5.7 · o/u 55.1—35%

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.24722nd+0.12287th
Success rate50.1%10th40.9%64th
Explosiveness1.20789th1.25877th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate49.9%13th41.3%70th
Rushing success rate45.3%49th41.3%62nd
Passing success rate53.8%6th41.3%80th
Explosive run rate13.8%68th9.4%19th
Explosive pass rate11.3%49th11.2%99th
Line yards / carry3.0679th2.8240th
Opportunity rate38.2%80th31.9%17th
Stuff rate19.3%102nd17.7%74th
Sack rate3.6%31st5.1%81st
3rd-down conversion48.5%21st36.5%40th
Red-zone TD rate65.0%53rd58.6%67th
Havoc rate11.7%35th11.5%120th
Box score · season totals
Points / game32.442nd24.265th
Yards / game423.841st346.057th
Yards / play6.1237th5.4785th
Pass yards / game294.410th221.284th
Yards / pass att.8.5022nd7.90117th
Completion %67.3%26th63.5%97th
Rush yards / game129.3107th124.840th
Yards / carry3.90101st3.7749th
3rd-down conv. %49.5%17th35.9%50th
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)1.0035th0.78119th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)1.4440th2.1172nd
Penalty yards / game53.655th41.0127th

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
8.1
98th of 138
YAC per catch
6.4
22nd of 138
Deep shots (20+)
12%
105th of 138
Shotgun
96%
60th of 138
No-huddle
80%
44th of 138
QB pressured
7%
131st of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
10%
128th of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
6.1
17th of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws299 throws charted

67% comp8.1 avg. depth6.4 YAC/catch12% 20+ air yds20–7 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 19 throws (6%), 16 caught (84%), 115 yds, 6.1 per throw1984% · 115yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 26 throws (9%), 18 caught (69%), 128 yds, 4.9 per throw2669% · 128yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 19 throws (6%), 12 caught (63%), 118 yds, 6.2 per throw1963% · 118yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 16 throws (5%), 8 caught (50%), 134 yds, 8.4 per throw1650% · 134yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (2%), 1 caught (14%), 18 yds, 2.6 per throw714% · 18yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 3 caught (60%), 94 yds, 18.8 per throw560% · 94yLeft, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw40% · 0yMiddle, Behind air yards: 2 throws (1%), 2 caught (100%), 12 yds, 6.0 per throw2100% · 12yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 12 throws (4%), 9 caught (75%), 62 yds, 5.2 per throw1275% · 62yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 16 throws (5%), 14 caught (88%), 130 yds, 8.1 per throw1688% · 130yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 17 throws (6%), 12 caught (71%), 194 yds, 11.4 per throw1771% · 194yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 13 throws (4%), 9 caught (69%), 277 yds, 21.3 per throw1369% · 277yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 6 throws (2%), 3 caught (50%), 132 yds, 22.0 per throw650% · 132yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 31 yds, 15.5 per throw250% · 31yRight, Behind air yards: 25 throws (8%), 19 caught (76%), 175 yds, 7.0 per throw2576% · 175yRight, 0–4 air yards: 36 throws (12%), 30 caught (83%), 287 yds, 8.0 per throw3683% · 287yRight, 5–9 air yards: 35 throws (12%), 25 caught (71%), 256 yds, 7.3 per throw3571% · 256yRight, 10–14 air yards: 17 throws (6%), 12 caught (71%), 158 yds, 9.3 per throw1771% · 158yRight, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (2%), 4 caught (67%), 75 yds, 12.5 per throw667% · 75yRight, 20–29 air yards: 10 throws (3%), 4 caught (40%), 101 yds, 10.1 per throw1040% · 101yRight, 30+ air yards: 6 throws (2%), 3 caught (50%), 103 yds, 17.2 per throw650% · 103y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on245 throws charted

63% comp8.8 avg. depth6.1 YAC/catch13% 20+ air yds13–5 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 18 throws (7%), 16 caught (89%), 81 yds, 4.5 per throw1889% · 81yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 19 throws (8%), 11 caught (58%), 74 yds, 3.9 per throw1958% · 74yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 14 throws (6%), 8 caught (57%), 70 yds, 5.0 per throw1457% · 70yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 3 caught (30%), 40 yds, 4.0 per throw1030% · 40yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 11 throws (4%), 6 caught (55%), 119 yds, 10.8 per throw1155% · 119yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 3 throws (1%), 1 caught (33%), 29 yds, 9.7 per throw333% · 29yLeft, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (2%), 1 caught (20%), 43 yds, 8.6 per throw520% · 43yMiddle, Behind air yards: 1 throws (0%), 1 caught (100%), 24 yds, 24.0 per throw1100% · 24yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 4 caught (57%), 28 yds, 4.0 per throw757% · 28yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 18 throws (7%), 12 caught (67%), 140 yds, 7.8 per throw1867% · 140yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 9 throws (4%), 6 caught (67%), 140 yds, 15.6 per throw967% · 140yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (2%), 2 caught (33%), 62 yds, 10.3 per throw633% · 62yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 6 caught (86%), 176 yds, 25.1 per throw786% · 176yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (1%), 1 caught (33%), 42 yds, 14.0 per throw333% · 42yRight, Behind air yards: 25 throws (10%), 19 caught (76%), 174 yds, 7.0 per throw2576% · 174yRight, 0–4 air yards: 30 throws (12%), 28 caught (93%), 221 yds, 7.4 per throw3093% · 221yRight, 5–9 air yards: 23 throws (9%), 15 caught (65%), 167 yds, 7.3 per throw2365% · 167yRight, 10–14 air yards: 14 throws (6%), 8 caught (57%), 116 yds, 8.3 per throw1457% · 116yRight, 15–19 air yards: 9 throws (4%), 4 caught (44%), 79 yds, 8.8 per throw944% · 79yRight, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 2 caught (40%), 48 yds, 9.6 per throw540% · 48yRight, 30+ air yards: 8 throws (3%), 2 caught (25%), 84 yds, 10.5 per throw825% · 84y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction270 carries

Left
19%
6.9 YPC · 65% succ.
Middle
59%
4.4 YPC · 41% succ.
Right
23%
3.7 YPC · 36% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced272 carries

Left
15%
6.3 YPC · 55% succ.
Middle
69%
4.0 YPC · 36% succ.
Right
16%
4.2 YPC · 40% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Lincoln Riley

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
7Sam HuardQBSR6' 1"205Bellevue, WA
14Jayden MaiavaQBSR6' 4"230Palolo, HI
21Alex MedynQBFR6' 0"210Norco, CA
28James JohnsonQBFR5' 11"190Huntington Beach, CA
29Will DohertyQBJR6' 4"220Manhattan Beach, CA
2Waymond JordanRBSR5' 10"210Pensacola, FL
6Deshonne RedeauxRBFR5' 10"205Carson, CA
8King MillerRBSO6' 0"225Calabasas, CA
22Shahn AlstonRBFR5' 10"220Painesville, OH
30Kayne MillerRBFR5' 8"185Calabasas, CA
34Tyson ParkRBFR5' 6"195Austin, TX
41Cian McKelveyRBJR5' 9"185Prescott, AZ
1Ethan FeasterWRFR6' 1"190Shreveport, LA
4Trent MosleyWRFR5' 10"180Chicago, IL
9Terrell AndersonWRJR6' 2"200Detroit, MI
10Corey SimmsWRSO6' 3"205St. Louis, MO
16Tanook HinesWRSO6' 0"190Houston, TX
17Kayden Dixon-WyattWRFR6' 2"200Hayward, CA
18Romero IsonWRFR6' 0"185Baltimore, MD
81Cameron SermonsWRFR5' 10"160San Bernardino, CA
85Tron BakerWRFR6' 0"200Long Beach, CA
86Luke DegnerWRSR5' 11"190Laguna Beach, CA
89Griffin BrahmWRFR6' 1"195Dana Point, CA
19Mark BowmanTEFR6' 4"245Castle Rock, CO
23Walter MatthewsTESO6' 6"305Hiram, GA
38Patrick O'BrienTESO6' 5"240San Diego, CA
44Manoah LeiatoTEFR6' 2"255Huntington Beach, CA
83Fisher MeltonTEFR6' 4"245Ladera Ranch, CA
84Tucker AshcraftTEJR6' 5"260Seattle, WA
87Josiah JeffersonTEJR6' 3"240San Diego, CA
51Vlad DyakonovOLFR6' 6"295Folsom, CA
56Kannon SmithOLFR6' 4"310Aurora, CO
60Kaylon MillerOLSO6' 0"305Calabasas, CA
62Travis LeonardOLSO5' 11"275Long Beach, CA
63Cash JacobsenOLFR6' 4"295Jenks, OK
64Ryan PauleyOLSR6' 2"320Carmel, IN
66Breck KolojayOLFR6' 7"310Denver, CO
67Kilian O'ConnorOLSR6' 1"300Ladera Ranch, CA
70Aaron DunnOLFR6' 7"310Spanish Fork, UT
71Keenyi PepeOLFR6' 7"330Long Beach, CA
72Elijah PaigeOLJR6' 7"315Phoenix, AZ
73Tobias RaymondOLJR6' 6"310Ventura, CA
75Ratumana BulabalavuOLSO6' 3"325Stockton, CA
76John FifitaOLFR6' 6"380Mountain View, CA
77Alani NoaOLSR6' 3"315Sacramento, CA
78Chase DenizOLFR6' 7"315San Diego, CA
1Kameryn CrawfordDEJR6' 5"255Mobile, AL
10Braylan ShelbyDESR6' 5"260Friendswood, TX
18Zuriah FisherDESR6' 4"265Aliquippa, PA
49Simote KatoangaDEFR6' 5"275Oceanside, CA
54Ethan BroughamDEJR6' 2"245Dana Point, CA
92Sam SmithDEFR6' 3"235San Juan Capistrano, CA
95Jadyn RamosDEFR6' 4"250Houston, TX
4Jahkeem StewartDTSO6' 5"295Reserve, LA
44Braeden JonesDTFR6' 4"270Chicago, IL
88Floyd BoucardDTSO6' 3"315Montreal, Canada
89Brendan ChoDTSO6' 3"300Chatsworth, CA
90Jake JohnsonDTFR6' 3"300Prosper, TX
96Jordan AbarcaDTSO6' 4"260Seal Beach, CA
97Jide AbasiriDTJR6' 5"280Prior Lake, MN
99Jamaal JarrettDTJR6' 5"360Greensboro, NC
8Desman Stephens IILBJR6' 3"250Clarkston, MI
14Ta'Mere RobinsonLBJR6' 3"240Pittsburgh, PA
17Deven BryantLBJR5' 11"230Carson, CA
22Talanoa IliLBFR6' 3"225Chino, CA
24Shaun ScottLBFR6' 3"240Fontana, CA
26Elijah NewbyLBSO6' 3"235Cheshire, CT
41Ryan O'ConnellLBSR6' 1"230Fairfield, CT
46Nick De FinaLBSR6' 0"195San Diego, CA
47Austin EngroffLBFR5' 11"215Boise, ID
50Taylor JohnsonLBFR6' 0"220San Bernardino, CA
57Roman MarchettiLBSR6' 2"225Tustin, CA
58GianCarlo RufoLBSR6' 2"230Honolulu, HI
2Elbert Hill IVCBFR5' 10"190Cleveland, OH
7Alex GrahamCBFR6' 0"195Detroit, MI
16Prophet BrownCBSR5' 11"190Sacramento, CA
19Brandon LockhartCBFR6' 2"175Los Angeles, CA
21RJ SermonsCBFR6' 1"190San Bernardino, CA
27Chasen JohnsonCBSO6' 1"195Sanford, FL
28Carrington PierceCBSO5' 11"185Rancho Cucamonga, CA
29Joshua Holland IICBFR6' 1"185Long Beach, CA
34Jayden CrowderCBFR5' 10"175Eastvale, CA
37Trestin CastroCBFR6' 0"190Upland, CA
40Shawn SehraCBJR5' 9"180Thousand Oaks, CA
48Derek DinizCBFR5' 10"185Pebble Beach, CA
6Christian PierceSSR6' 1"205Rancho Cucamonga, CA
23Kendarius ReddickSSO5' 11"190Thomasville, GA
30Marquis GallegosSSO6' 0"195North Hollywood, CA
31Madden RiordanSFR5' 10"180Pasadena, CA
36Peyton DyerSFR6' 0"200Decatur, GA
38Isaiah RubinSSO5' 11"195Long Beach, CA
39Peter SciarrinoSFR5' 10"190Manhattan Beach, CA
45Caden ChittendenPKSO5' 10"190Las Vegas, NV
35Lachlan CarriganPSO6' 3"205Melbourne, Australia
36Rey SanchezPSR6' 2"225Carson, CA
37Zachary NandlalPSO5' 8"177Sydney, Australia
39Nate HillenburgPSR6' 4"220Indianapolis, IN
48Ryon SayeriPSO5' 11"185West Hills, CA
46Dylan BlackLSSR6' 1"220Reno, NV
53Luke BrownLSFR6' 2"215China Spring, TX

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2016 (+12.9, #8) · worst: 2021 (-1.4, #74)
0+5+10+15FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#13
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far7-24-2#23+13.5+9.1+4.4
20259-47-2#13+11.8+8.4+3.4
20247-64-5#18+8.9+6.7+2.2
20238-55-4#25+7.1+13.4-6.3
202211-38-1#17+8.9+11.1-2.2
20214-83-6#74-1.4+2.5-3.9
20205-15-0#25+6.5+4.8+1.7
20198-57-2#33+5.5+7.0-1.5
20185-74-5#62+1.2-0.4+1.6
201711-38-1#19+9.3+5.3+4.0
201610-37-2#8+12.9+5.7+7.2
20158-66-3#18+10.0+4.5+5.6
20149-46-3#15+11.4+5.7+5.7

USC's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Nov 3, 12:25 PM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →