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Mountain West · 2026

UNLV Rebels

Head coach Dan Mullen · Allegiant Stadium
5-33-1 in conference
TDC Rank
#88
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
-5.9
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
-4.0
97th in FBS
Defense
-1.9
80th in FBS
Schedule so far
-7.4
91st toughest
Projected
7.3-4.7
bowl-eligible 98%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

-5.9 now, -3.6 preseason · down 12 spots since preseason
-50FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8Wk 9#89

Final record odds

7.3-4.7 expected · most likely 7-5 (39%)
5-715%6-639%7-538%8-46%9-3

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Jackson Arnold
QB · SR · 60th in FBS
1660yds
13 TD · 4 INT
Rushing
Jai'Den Thomas
RB · SR · 37th in FBS
657yds
128 car · 4 TD
Receiving
Kayden McGee
WR · SO · 104th in FBS
442yds
21 rec · 5 TD
Tackles
Jake Pope
S · SR · 30th in FBS
70tkl
2 TFL
Sacks
Tre Fulton
DB · SO · 110th in FBS
3.5sacks
0 hurries
Interceptions
Mumu Bin-Wahad
DB · SR · 6th in FBS
4INT
5 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Aug 29vs58MemphisL 21–27 ›-6.3—FOX
1Sep 5@109Hawai'iCONFW 21–6 ›+7.2—CW
2Sep 12@56North TexasL 6–44 ›-21.4—ESPNU
3—Bye
4Sep 26@132AkronW 38–10 ›+8.6—ESPN+
5Oct 3vs93CaliforniaW 39–31 ›-2.4—CBSSN
6Oct 10vs72North Dakota StateCONFW 13–7 ›+2.4—CW
7Oct 17@85Air ForceCONFL 31–41 ›-11.6—CBSSN
8—Bye
9Oct 31vs133Northern IllinoisCONFW 31–24 ›-18.6—CBSSN
10Nov 7vs120WyomingCONFUNLV −12.7 · o/u 44.5—80%CBSSN
11Nov 14@48New MexicoCONFNew Mexico −15.4 · o/u 48.7—15%CW
12Nov 21@123San José StateCONFUNLV −6.1 · o/u 45.9—66%CBSSN
13Nov 28vs103NevadaCONFUNLV −8.1 · o/u 44.8—71%CBSSN

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.11473rd+0.08363rd
Success rate39.7%106th41.0%68th
Explosiveness1.25761st1.24871st
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate39.9%107th41.0%63rd
Rushing success rate38.9%113th48.5%129th
Passing success rate41.2%75th32.9%5th
Explosive run rate14.4%57th19.0%135th
Explosive pass rate9.5%87th10.7%86th
Line yards / carry3.1173rd3.65136th
Opportunity rate37.4%91st45.1%134th
Stuff rate15.9%54th13.4%122nd
Sack rate6.6%96th6.4%51st
3rd-down conversion43.5%47th42.2%99th
Red-zone TD rate50.0%113th54.2%44th
Havoc rate13.9%80th13.3%80th
Box score · season totals
Points / game25.090th23.861st
Yards / game383.470th395.3108th
Yards / play5.6367th5.6396th
Pass yards / game208.093rd205.556th
Yards / pass att.7.6061st6.7148th
Completion %58.6%110th54.7%10th
Rush yards / game175.445th189.8123rd
Yards / carry4.6053rd5.06123rd
3rd-down conv. %41.7%51st40.7%99th
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)1.3876th1.2558th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)2.2594th2.1263rd
Penalty yards / game66.8106th67.918th

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
10.7
16th of 138
YAC per catch
3.8
134th of 138
Deep shots (20+)
17%
40th of 138
Shotgun
95%
75th of 138
No-huddle
22%
112th of 138
QB pressured
13%
65th of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
12%
102nd of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
5.7
35th of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws206 throws charted

58% comp10.7 avg. depth3.8 YAC/catch17% 20+ air yds12–6 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 10 throws (5%), 10 caught (100%), 73 yds, 7.3 per throw10100% · 73yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 13 throws (6%), 7 caught (54%), 38 yds, 2.9 per throw1354% · 38yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 22 throws (11%), 13 caught (59%), 131 yds, 6.0 per throw2259% · 131yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 2 caught (40%), 24 yds, 4.8 per throw540% · 24yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 2 caught (50%), 50 yds, 12.5 per throw450% · 50yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 3 caught (50%), 101 yds, 16.8 per throw650% · 101yLeft, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 44 yds, 22.0 per throw250% · 44yMiddle, Behind air yards: 2 throws (1%), 2 caught (100%), 8 yds, 4.0 per throw2100% · 8yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 11 throws (5%), 9 caught (82%), 47 yds, 4.3 per throw1182% · 47yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 14 throws (7%), 6 caught (43%), 53 yds, 3.8 per throw1443% · 53yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 17 throws (8%), 11 caught (65%), 132 yds, 7.8 per throw1765% · 132yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 10 throws (5%), 5 caught (50%), 96 yds, 9.6 per throw1050% · 96yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw50% · 0yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (2%), 3 caught (75%), 140 yds, 35.0 per throw475% · 140yRight, Behind air yards: 12 throws (6%), 7 caught (58%), 4 yds, 0.3 per throw1258% · 4yRight, 0–4 air yards: 13 throws (6%), 11 caught (85%), 47 yds, 3.6 per throw1385% · 47yRight, 5–9 air yards: 23 throws (11%), 14 caught (61%), 106 yds, 4.6 per throw2361% · 106yRight, 10–14 air yards: 13 throws (6%), 6 caught (46%), 89 yds, 6.8 per throw1346% · 89yRight, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 3 caught (43%), 49 yds, 7.0 per throw743% · 49yRight, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 3 caught (60%), 77 yds, 15.4 per throw560% · 77yRight, 30+ air yards: 8 throws (4%), 5 caught (63%), 251 yds, 31.4 per throw863% · 251y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on230 throws charted

54% comp9.3 avg. depth5.7 YAC/catch13% 20+ air yds11–9 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 20 throws (9%), 16 caught (80%), 68 yds, 3.4 per throw2080% · 68yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 19 throws (8%), 13 caught (68%), 71 yds, 3.7 per throw1968% · 71yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 23 throws (10%), 13 caught (57%), 128 yds, 5.6 per throw2357% · 128yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 12 throws (5%), 6 caught (50%), 116 yds, 9.7 per throw1250% · 116yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 11 throws (5%), 3 caught (27%), 63 yds, 5.7 per throw1127% · 63yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 2 caught (29%), 41 yds, 5.9 per throw729% · 41yLeft, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw50% · 0yMiddle, Behind air yards: 3 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw30% · 0yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 9 throws (4%), 5 caught (56%), 26 yds, 2.9 per throw956% · 26yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 9 throws (4%), 5 caught (56%), 124 yds, 13.8 per throw956% · 124yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 8 throws (3%), 5 caught (63%), 83 yds, 10.4 per throw863% · 83yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 14 throws (6%), 7 caught (50%), 146 yds, 10.4 per throw1450% · 146yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 3 throws (1%), 1 caught (33%), 26 yds, 8.7 per throw333% · 26yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (1%), 1 caught (33%), 46 yds, 15.3 per throw333% · 46yRight, Behind air yards: 13 throws (6%), 13 caught (100%), 66 yds, 5.1 per throw13100% · 66yRight, 0–4 air yards: 25 throws (11%), 17 caught (68%), 101 yds, 4.0 per throw2568% · 101yRight, 5–9 air yards: 15 throws (7%), 6 caught (40%), 51 yds, 3.4 per throw1540% · 51yRight, 10–14 air yards: 15 throws (7%), 3 caught (20%), 36 yds, 2.4 per throw1520% · 36yRight, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 6 caught (100%), 193 yds, 32.2 per throw6100% · 193yRight, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 4 caught (80%), 104 yds, 20.8 per throw580% · 104yRight, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (2%), 1 caught (20%), 48 yds, 9.6 per throw520% · 48y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction275 carries

Left
19%
5.2 YPC · 44% succ.
Middle
57%
5.5 YPC · 42% succ.
Right
24%
6.2 YPC · 42% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced279 carries

Left
18%
7.5 YPC · 57% succ.
Middle
58%
4.5 YPC · 41% succ.
Right
24%
7.7 YPC · 59% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Dan Mullen

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
1Alex OrjiQBSR6' 3"240Sachse, TX
11Jackson ArnoldQBSR6' 1"220Denton, TX
13Sebastian CircoQBFR6' 2"195Fort Lauderdale, FL
14Derek GarciaQBFR6' 4"205Ventura, CA
0Jaylon GloverRBSR5' 9"210Lakeland, FL
9Jai'Den ThomasRBSR5' 9"195Atlanta, GA
24Darrien JonesRBJR6' 0"215Kansas City, MO
29Mohammad MaaliRBSR5' 11"210Las Vegas, NV
2Taz ReddicksWRJR5' 11"195Fort Lauderdale, FL
4DeAngelo Irvin Jr.WRSR5' 8"170Midwest City, OK
5Tavian McNairWRFR6' 2"185North Las Vegas, NV
6Kayden McGeeWRSO6' 0"170Muskogee, OK
8Taeshaun LyonsWRJR6' 1"190Hayward, CA
10Troy StellatoWRSR6' 1"195Fort Lauderdale, FL
15Tatum Bell Jr.WRFR6' 0"205Frisco, TX
19Danny BodenWRFR6' 0"180Dunwoody, GA
80Jesse HardenWRFR6' 3"185Tampa, FL
81Vincent CarnerWRFR6' 4"205Newbury Park, CA
83Cassidee MilesWRFR6' 5"190Fort Worth, TX
86David Titone-PerezWRSO6' 0"170Hacienda Heights, CA
87Demari NunleyWRFR6' 3"195Los Angeles, CA
43Jae Beasley IITEJR6' 3"250Henderson, NV
84Keyan BurnettTESR6' 6"250Ladera Ranch, CA
85Matt ByrnesTESR6' 6"250Chicago, IL
88Velltray JeffersonTESR6' 5"260Fresno, CA
89Andreas Diaz-NicolaidisTEFR6' 3"250Portland, OR
50Tevita TausingaOLFR6' 5"350Sacramento, CA
55Griffin ScroggsOLSR6' 3"330Grayson, GA
57Zach ScottOLFR6' 5"325Henderson, NV
60Josh HaneyOLFR6' 4"280San Juan Capistrano, CA
61Fuad MaaliOLFR6' 6"285Orlando, FL
62Eli SanchezOLFR6' 3"300Sandusky, OH
64Joe MetzgerOLSR6' 5"310Franklinville, NJ
65Ace RobinsonOLFR6' 4"285Oakland, CA
66BJ ToloOLJR6' 1"320Santa Ana, CA
68Ivan PenaOLFR6' 6"345Las Vegas, NV
70Alekai AfoaOLJR6' 4"295San Ramon, CA
71Ed HaynesOLSO6' 4"310Henderson, NV
72Will ThomasOLSR6' 7"305Tulsa, OK
73Jesus Garcia IIOLFR6' 5"290San Diego, CA
74Amare TaaseOLSO6' 4"330Scottsdale, AZ
75Mateo BilaverOLFR6' 6"315North Hollywood, CA
76Chrysanthos FetokakisOLFR6' 5"335Houston, TX
77Colton ThomassonOLJR6' 8"325Spring Branch, TX
78Jackson BrownOLJR6' 6"310Danville, CA
79Austin BoydOLSR6' 4"305Lehi, UT
0Cohen FullerDLSR6' 3"300Inglewood, CA
9Landen ThomasDLJR6' 3"255Zachary, LA
16Mohamed AltayebDLSR6' 4"290Castle Rock, CO
40Armand AusbonDLJR6' 3"250Houston, TX
44Kal-El TogafauDLFR6' 3"270Rancho Cucamonga, CA
48CJ BesserDLFR6' 3"245Las Vegas, NV
54Poe PurcellDLFR6' 3"320Las Vegas, NV
88Mo AbbasherDLJR6' 3"305Coppell, TX
90Eliah LogoDLFR6' 2"310Henderson, NV
92Herb GrayDLSO6' 3"275Upper Marlboro, MD
94Lucas ContiDLJR6' 5"295Corona, CA
96Prin FoxDLFR6' 2"280Cashmere, WA
97Bryce RobinsonDLFR6' 3"280Marietta, GA
99Jordan CovingtonDLFR6' 4"290McKinney, TX
32Kenji ScanlanDESO6' 2"245Tacoma, WA
42Andre PorterDESO6' 2"245Las Vegas, NV
3Dee CraytonLBSR6' 2"230Alpharetta, GA
8Kamuela Ka'aihueLBSR6' 2"240Papakolea, HI
11Mark IheanachorLBFR6' 2"220Los Angeles, CA
15Blesyng Alualu-TuiolemotuLBJR6' 1"220Kalihi, HI
23Cam SanteeLBSR6' 3"235Avon, OH
30Jordan NjokuLBFR6' 3"235Los Angeles, CA
31Ronnell Hewitt Jr.LBFR6' 1"225Los Angeles, CA
33Tate MatthewsLBFR6' 2"215Denver, CO
36Justin FloweLBSR6' 2"230Chino, CA
45Cole AlbrechtLBFR6' 4"245Sandy, UT
51Alexander GreenLBFR6' 2"235Las Vegas, NV
52Jacob BezaLBSO6' 0"235Henderson, NV
91Elias RudolphLBSO6' 5"205Deerfield Beach, FL
1Mumu Bin-WahadDBSR5' 11"190Atlanta, GA
2Denver HarrisDBSR6' 0"190Houston, TX
4Tony-Louis NkubaDBSO6' 1"195Lewisville, TX
5Quandarius KeyesDBSR6' 1"185Laurel, MS
10Tre FultonDBSO6' 3"190Bakersfield, CA
13Jaylen AllenDBSO6' 0"185Las Vegas, NV
19Tylen MathewsDBFR6' 0"185Lake Cormorant, MS
22Darien LewisDBFR6' 0"205Amarillo, TX
24Avery HelmDBSR6' 1"185Missouri City, TX
27Cameron ParodiDBFR6' 2"200Milton, GA
28Vern BlairDBFR6' 0"170Amarillo, TX
29AJ MortonDBFR6' 0"190Seattle, WA
37Triston ThomasDBFR5' 9"180Los Angeles, CA
38Kyron ChambersDBSR6' 0"200Dallas, TX
7Jake PopeSSR6' 1"200Buford, GA
14Logan ChristensenSSO6' 0"200Rancho Santa Margarita, CA
20Landyn ClevelandSJR6' 0"190Dallas, TX
25Brock DeFriesSFR5' 10"190Mission Viejo, CA
35Brayden BakerPKFR6' 0"170Scottsdale, AZ
49Noah RandazzoPKFR5' 11"185Las Vegas, NV
26Matt ChoulesPFR6' 3"225Canberra, Australia
39Ethan SchwartzPSO6' 5"205Mission Viejo, CA
46Mason SenzakiLSFR6' 1"205Las Vegas, NV
47Tyson JacobsonLSJR6' 0"215Camas, WA
56Andrew O'ReillyLSSO6' 4"210Las Vegas, NV

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2024 (+7.1, #29) · worst: 2014 (-14.6, #123)
-100+10FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#64
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far5-33-1#88-5.9-4.0-1.9
202510-46-2#64+0.8+5.3-4.6
202411-36-1#29+7.1+4.7+2.4
20239-56-2#61+0.2+4.6-4.4
20225-73-5#101-6.5-2.2-4.4
20212-102-6#111-9.4-4.8-4.6
20200-60-6#122-14.4-6.3-8.1
20194-82-6#118-11.1-3.7-7.4
20184-82-6#107-9.8-1.0-8.8
20175-74-4#101-6.9+0.2-7.1
20164-83-5#110-9.5-0.2-9.4
20153-92-6#102-9.3-2.4-6.9
20142-111-7#123-14.6-5.0-9.5

UNLV's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Nov 3, 12:25 PM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →