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Mountain West · 2026

Air Force Falcons

Head coach Troy Calhoun · Falcon Stadium
6-23-2 in conference
TDC Rank
#85
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
-5.4
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
-2.8
87th in FBS
Defense
-2.6
86th in FBS
Schedule so far
-11.3
120th toughest
Projected
8.3-3.7
bowl-eligible >99%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

-5.4 now, -9.1 preseason · up 11 spots since preseason
-10-50FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8Wk 9#85

Final record odds

8.3-3.7 expected · most likely 8-4 (52%)
6-613%7-552%8-430%9-310-2

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Liam Szarka
QB · 186th in FBS
296yds
1 TD · 4 INT
Rushing
Evan Medders
QB · SO · 81st in FBS
490yds
73 car · 6 TD
Receiving
Simon Kibbee
TE · SR · 611th in FBS
135yds
8 rec · 0 TD
Tackles
Blake Fletcher
LB · SR · 7th in FBS
80tkl
3.5 TFL
Sacks
Max Mustell
DB · SO · 147th in FBS
3sacks
1 hurries
Interceptions
Blake Fletcher
LB · SR · 49th in FBS
2INT
2 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 5vsDuquesne FCSW 34–0 ›-4.9—MW+
2Sep 12vs72North Dakota StateCONFL 32–38 ›-9.6—FS1
3—Bye
4Sep 26@103NevadaCONFW 36–33 ›-3.5—FS1
5Oct 3vs84NavyW 14–9 ›-3.9—CBS
6Oct 10@133Northern IllinoisCONFW 28–7 ›+2.8—CBSSN
7Oct 17vs88UNLVCONFW 41–31 ›+0.4—CBSSN
8Oct 23@120WyomingCONFL 14–28 ›-25.2—CW
9Oct 31vs80UConnW 35–26 ›+2.3—MW+
10Nov 7@76ArmyArmy −7.0 · o/u 57.5—32%CBS
11Nov 14vs123San José StateCONFAir Force −14.1 · o/u 47.8—83%CBSSN
12Nov 20vs137UTEPCONFAir Force −23.8 · o/u 53.6—95%CW
13Nov 28@48New MexicoCONFNew Mexico −14.9 · o/u 50.6—16%CW

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.20836th+0.10379th
Success rate49.4%15th40.8%63rd
Explosiveness1.013138th1.28496th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate50.3%11th40.9%61st
Rushing success rate52.9%5th42.5%71st
Passing success rate33.3%132nd39.3%56th
Explosive run rate13.0%86th14.5%95th
Explosive pass rate15.9%6th10.6%84th
Line yards / carry3.702nd3.23105th
Opportunity rate43.2%20th40.1%102nd
Stuff rate8.6%2nd15.5%101st
Sack rate8.0%120th6.0%63rd
3rd-down conversion52.6%10th39.3%68th
Red-zone TD rate68.8%32nd60.0%71st
Havoc rate6.8%1st13.7%73rd
Box score · season totals
Points / game29.362nd21.548th
Yards / game400.154th305.423rd
Yards / play5.4190th5.6699th
Pass yards / game59.1138th176.317th
Yards / pass att.6.9095th7.1673rd
Completion %47.8%138th56.3%19th
Rush yards / game341.02nd129.150th
Yards / carry5.3015th4.63104th
3rd-down conv. %51.7%9th35.6%46th
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)0.8825th0.88107th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)0.757th1.50104th
Penalty yards / game46.129th35.9133rd

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
13.0
3rd of 138
YAC per catch
3.9
131st of 138
Deep shots (20+)
22%
7th of 138
Shotgun
39%
138th of 138
No-huddle
5%
132nd of 138
QB pressured
16%
35th of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
15%
63rd of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
5.7
36th of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws63 throws charted

47% comp13.0 avg. depth3.9 YAC/catch22% 20+ air yds4–4 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 3 throws (5%), 2 caught (67%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw367% · 0yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 1 throws (2%), 1 caught (100%), 11 yds, 11.0 per throw1100% · 11yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 3 throws (5%), 3 caught (100%), 31 yds, 10.3 per throw3100% · 31yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 7 throws (11%), 4 caught (57%), 60 yds, 8.6 per throw757% · 60yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 2 throws (3%), 1 caught (50%), 17 yds, 8.5 per throw250% · 17yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 1 throws (2%), 1 caught (100%), 35 yds, 35.0 per throw1100% · 35yLeft, 30+ air yards: noneMiddle, Behind air yards: noneMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 2 throws (3%), 1 caught (50%), 8 yds, 4.0 per throw250% · 8yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 2 throws (3%), 1 caught (50%), 21 yds, 10.5 per throw250% · 21yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 3 throws (5%), 3 caught (100%), 51 yds, 17.0 per throw3100% · 51yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 8 throws (13%), 3 caught (38%), 59 yds, 7.4 per throw838% · 59yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 7 throws (11%), 3 caught (43%), 80 yds, 11.4 per throw743% · 80yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (5%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw30% · 0yRight, Behind air yards: 1 throws (2%), 1 caught (100%), 2 yds, 2.0 per throw1100% · 2yRight, 0–4 air yards: 9 throws (14%), 3 caught (33%), 9 yds, 1.0 per throw933% · 9yRight, 5–9 air yards: 5 throws (8%), 2 caught (40%), 16 yds, 3.2 per throw540% · 16yRight, 10–14 air yards: 1 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0yRight, 15–19 air yards: 2 throws (3%), 1 caught (50%), 18 yds, 9.0 per throw250% · 18yRight, 20–29 air yards: 2 throws (3%), 2 caught (100%), 50 yds, 25.0 per throw2100% · 50yRight, 30+ air yards: 1 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on185 throws charted

56% comp11.0 avg. depth5.7 YAC/catch20% 20+ air yds8–5 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 8 throws (4%), 7 caught (88%), 42 yds, 5.3 per throw888% · 42yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 13 throws (7%), 12 caught (92%), 58 yds, 4.5 per throw1392% · 58yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 14 throws (8%), 7 caught (50%), 51 yds, 3.6 per throw1450% · 51yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 10 throws (5%), 4 caught (40%), 65 yds, 6.5 per throw1040% · 65yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 3 throws (2%), 2 caught (67%), 48 yds, 16.0 per throw367% · 48yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 1 caught (17%), 25 yds, 4.2 per throw617% · 25yLeft, 30+ air yards: 9 throws (5%), 4 caught (44%), 179 yds, 19.9 per throw944% · 179yMiddle, Behind air yards: 1 throws (1%), 1 caught (100%), 10 yds, 10.0 per throw1100% · 10yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 10 throws (5%), 5 caught (50%), 85 yds, 8.5 per throw1050% · 85yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 9 throws (5%), 4 caught (44%), 29 yds, 3.2 per throw944% · 29yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 8 throws (4%), 6 caught (75%), 72 yds, 9.0 per throw875% · 72yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw20% · 0yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: noneMiddle, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (2%), 1 caught (25%), 68 yds, 17.0 per throw425% · 68yRight, Behind air yards: 13 throws (7%), 12 caught (92%), 77 yds, 5.9 per throw1392% · 77yRight, 0–4 air yards: 18 throws (10%), 15 caught (83%), 137 yds, 7.6 per throw1883% · 137yRight, 5–9 air yards: 27 throws (15%), 15 caught (56%), 146 yds, 5.4 per throw2756% · 146yRight, 10–14 air yards: 10 throws (5%), 5 caught (50%), 82 yds, 8.2 per throw1050% · 82yRight, 15–19 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw40% · 0yRight, 20–29 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 2 caught (33%), 54 yds, 9.0 per throw633% · 54yRight, 30+ air yards: 10 throws (5%), 1 caught (10%), 33 yds, 3.3 per throw1010% · 33y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction499 carries

Left
22%
5.2 YPC · 53% succ.
Middle
48%
5.2 YPC · 46% succ.
Right
30%
5.8 YPC · 62% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced205 carries

Left
23%
5.1 YPC · 40% succ.
Middle
52%
5.9 YPC · 48% succ.
Right
25%
3.8 YPC · 35% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Troy Calhoun

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
4Howard Fisher IVQB5' 11"170Wylie, TX
4Kemper HodgesQBSR6' 0"245Santa Rosa Beach, FL
5Evan MeddersQBSO5' 10"210Waxhaw, NC
11Josh JohnsonQBSR6' 2"190New Orleans, LA
13Maguire MartinQBSR6' 1"190Argyle, TX
14Cam ReddickQBFR6' 0"215Dyer, IN
2Owen AllenRBSR5' 11"215Southlake, TX
21Chase FerrellRBSO5' 6"170Houston, TX
32Grady KinseyRBFRGnadenhutten, OH
34Oswaldo MoralesRBSO5' 9"210Tomball, TX
44Rocco ContiRBSR5' 8"190Olmsted Falls, OH
24Luke RauhFBJR6' 0"210Enid, OK
27Price DavisFBSO6' 0"195Maryville, TN
28Gage LaDueFBJR5' 10"215Maryville, TN
45Omari EliasFBJR5' 9"205Wichita, KS
0Owen ChambersWRSR5' 10"195Dana Point, CA
3Matt LongWRJR5' 10"205Folsom, CA
8Jonah DawsonWRJR5' 9"170Rancho Cucamonga, CA
10Adam HrynciwWRSR6' 3"180Fremont, OH
18Mason HayesWRJR5' 11"210Normandy Park, WA
20Keegan SackWRSO5' 10"210Hurricane, WV
29Sylas Maiava-AlaimaloWRSO5' 9"195Oahu, HI
30Major QuinWRSO5' 10"185Jackson, MS
33Mason LoweWRJR5' 10"185Littleton, CO
36Astin HangeWRJR5' 10"175Kapolei, HI
89Noah McNairWRSO6' 0"205Sunnyside, WA
Calix LempWRFR6' 0"185Wadsworth, OH
80Simon KibbeeTESR6' 6"250Aurora, CO
81Dominic HenningTESO6' 3"245Aurora, CO
82Henry BarbischTESO6' 5"250Pittsburgh, PA
85Mitchell BlakesleeTESR6' 4"260The Woodlands, TX
87Harry CaskeyTEJR6' 2"240Ogallala, NE
52Nathan ElwoodOLSR6' 3"290Marysville, WA
53Michael RayOLSO6' 4"300Memphis, TN
54Justus PeralesOLJR6' 2"280Garland, TX
56Ian FisherOLSR6' 3"285Peachtree City, GA
57Brody SmithOLJR6' 3"290Jefferson City, MO
62Jonny BrambilaOLJR6' 3"300Murray, UT
63Eli CampbellOLSO6' 2"310Princeton, WV
64Caden RomoOLJR6' 3"245Wimberley, TX
67Cole AndersonOLSO6' 3"315Jacksonville, FL
71Marcus RoserOLJR6' 2"280Ashburn, VA
72Jon AshfordOLJR6' 2"320Edmond, OK
73Brandon NazworthOLJR6' 3"290Folsom, CA
75Alec FalkOLSR6' 5"315Monument, CO
76Alex BoydOLSO6' 4"280Maryville, TN
77Peyton KnoebelOLJR6' 4"300Arvada, CO
78Gary LassleyOLSO6' 4"300Frisco, TX
55Cullen DevineDLSO6' 3"225Austin, TX
59Chaz BarnettDLJR6' 5"260Highlands Ranch, CO
90Muhammad AlcineDLSO6' 2"255Lawrenceville, GA
95Noah DanielsDLSO6' 3"260Winter Park, FL
96Charlie GleasonDLSR6' 4"235Stillwater, MN
98Christian KrietzerDLSO6' 2"240Macon, GA
99Jayden OquendoDLSR6' 2"285Olathe, KS
18DeSean DavisDEJR6' 3"225Prosper, TX
34Jalen DavisDEJR6' 3"220Prosper, TX
48Antonio MenardDEJR6' 1"230Lakeville, MN
50Grady ForsytheDEJR6' 4"235Conifer, CO
53Ryan LippeDESO6' 4"250Hartville, OH
84Samuel Rhoades VDEJR6' 3"240Tulsa, OK
0Luke FisherLBSR6' 0"225Columbus, MS
6Blake FletcherLBSR6' 1"230Racine, WI
8Dallas DaleyLBSR6' 1"215Renton, WA
30Isaac HubertLBSR6' 1"225Canton, GA
32Andrew JurasekLBSO5' 11"235Westlake, TX
33Brody BujnochLBSR6' 1"235Hutto, TX
35Bryce BradenLBSO6' 2"225Stratford, TX
39Brodie MitchellLBJR6' 1"205Portland, TX
41Sam OaklandLBSO6' 2"225San Antonio, TX
43Seth McFarlandLBSO6' 0"235Longview, TX
44Jonah BowmanLBJR6' 0"235Prosper, TX
45Jaylin ReeseLBJR5' 11"235Woodbury, MN
47Jake KeplerLBJR6' 2"230Springfield, IL
51Vinnie CanosaLBJR6' 1"230Acworth, GA
2Korey JohnsonDBJR6' 0"195Glendale, AZ
3Kyle ChenDBJR6' 0"200Vancouver, WA
4Mikhail SeikenDBJR5' 11"190Takoma Park, MD
5Roger Jones Jr.DBJR5' 10"184Huntington, MD
7Nick BeckwithDBJR6' 0"205Lafayette, LA
10Jerome DrainDBSO6' 3"190Fulshear, TX
12Jax GatesDBSO5' 11"190Lincoln, NE
13Joseph KramlichDBSO5' 10"175Kulm, ND
14Tyshan MitchellDBSO5' 10"170Montgomery, NY
15Mikey InwehDBFR6' 4"205San Antonio, TX
19Houston HendrixDBSR6' 1"205Boerne, TX
21Clayton HartDBSO6' 1"195Henderson, TX
22Ehimen OyamendanDBSO5' 10"190La Crescenta, CA
23Cade PatersonDBSO5' 11"195Eastvale, CA
24Jordan Elie-StuartDBSO5' 11"170Tomball, TX
26Alexander PerezDBSO5' 10"200Henderson, NV
31Jayden MalbrancheDBSO5' 11"180Fort Myers, FL
36Max MustellDBSO5' 10"175Miami, FL
40Jaxon PaulsrudDBFR6' 0"190Cherokee, IA
39Jacob MedinaPKJR5' 10"170Chandler, AZ
90Carter CremascoliPKSO5' 11"210Mount Prospect, IL
91Rip PerezPSR6' 2"200Atlanta, GA
94Will DuncanPJR6' 0"220Katy, TX
98Rocco D'AngeloPJR5' 11"180Naples, FL
46Jake HelmsLSJR6' 0"210Austin, TX

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2019 (+8.4, #25) · worst: 2024 (-7.0, #106)
-10-50+5+10FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#95
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far6-23-2#85-5.4-2.8-2.6
20254-83-5#95-5.2+0.2-5.4
20245-73-4#106-7.0-8.0+1.0
20239-45-3#48+3.2-1.3+4.5
202210-35-3#36+4.8-1.6+6.4
202110-36-2#27+7.0+2.6+4.4
20203-32-2#33+5.3-2.7+8.0
201911-27-1#25+8.4+3.1+5.3
20185-73-5#73-0.4+0.6-1.1
20175-74-4#82-2.9+2.3-5.2
201610-35-3#52+2.7+3.4-0.7
20158-66-2#60+2.1+2.0+0.2
201410-35-3#64-0.10.0-0.1

Air Force's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Nov 3, 12:25 PM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →