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Mountain West · 2026

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors

Head coach Timmy Chang · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
2-61-4 in conference
TDC Rank
#109
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
-11.5
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
-7.2
113th in FBS
Defense
-4.3
100th in FBS
Schedule so far
-9.2
101st toughest
Projected
4.3-7.7
bowl-eligible 8%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

-11.5 now, -9.4 preseason · down 12 spots since preseason
-15-10-50FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8Wk 9#109

Final record odds

4.3-7.7 expected · most likely 4-8 (43%)
2-1014%3-943%4-833%5-78%6-6

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Micah Alejado
QB · SO · 14th in FBS
2186yds
9 TD · 6 INT
Rushing
DeVon Rice
RB · SO · 143rd in FBS
385yds
82 car · 6 TD
Receiving
Kainoa Carvalho
WR · FR · 144th in FBS
399yds
35 rec · 0 TD
Tackles
Jamih Otis
LB · SR · 152nd in FBS
54tkl
2 TFL
Sacks
Julian Smith
LB · JR · 309th in FBS
2sacks
0 hurries
Interceptions
Jeremiah Hughes
DB · JR · 16th in FBS
3INT
3 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Aug 29@100StanfordL 27–37 ›-16.1—ACC Network
1Sep 5vs88UNLVCONFL 6–21 ›-24.6—CW
2Sep 12vs125New Mexico StateW 29–19 ›-9.7—MW+
3—Bye
4Sep 26@120WyomingCONFL 10–27 ›-28.2—CW
5Oct 3vs123San José StateCONFL 16–20 ›-23.4—MW+
6Oct 10@53Arizona StateL 12–30 ›-9.5—FS1
7Oct 17vs48New MexicoCONFL 10–21 ›-9.0—FS1
8Oct 24@133Northern IllinoisCONFW 56–21 ›+9.7—MW+
9—Bye
10Nov 7@137UTEPCONFHawai'i −10.3 · o/u 50.9—75%FS1
11Nov 14vs72North Dakota StateCONFNorth Dakota State −7.9 · o/u 43.8—30%CW
12Nov 21@103NevadaCONFNevada −5.0 · o/u 44.0—37%
13Nov 28vs138Sacramento StateHawai'i −19.7 · o/u 47.8—91%MW+

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.06999th+0.184114th
Success rate41.2%82nd43.6%100th
Explosiveness1.146119th1.22161st
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate41.2%89th43.6%98th
Rushing success rate45.7%45th43.5%83rd
Passing success rate38.9%98th43.7%106th
Explosive run rate12.0%106th13.1%71st
Explosive pass rate7.6%119th10.7%86th
Line yards / carry3.0389th3.20100th
Opportunity rate41.8%31st41.9%122nd
Stuff rate18.5%95th15.8%96th
Sack rate5.0%64th4.4%103rd
3rd-down conversion40.3%78th37.5%52nd
Red-zone TD rate42.9%127th68.2%110th
Havoc rate15.4%113th12.4%101st
Box score · season totals
Points / game20.8119th24.569th
Yards / game365.485th368.377th
Yards / play4.96117th5.85109th
Pass yards / game275.823rd198.345th
Yards / pass att.6.30121st7.70105th
Completion %59.0%105th62.6%84th
Rush yards / game89.6136th170.0105th
Yards / carry3.30129th4.75109th
3rd-down conv. %39.4%78th37.4%60th
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)1.1248th1.3845th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)2.50108th1.50104th
Penalty yards / game57.575th65.826th

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
8.5
85th of 138
YAC per catch
4.1
127th of 138
Deep shots (20+)
11%
112th of 138
Shotgun
98%
46th of 138
No-huddle
41%
86th of 138
QB pressured
13%
72nd of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
10%
127th of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
5.0
79th of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws336 throws charted

58% comp8.5 avg. depth4.1 YAC/catch11% 20+ air yds10–6 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 17 throws (5%), 15 caught (88%), 62 yds, 3.6 per throw1788% · 62yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 40 throws (12%), 22 caught (55%), 123 yds, 3.1 per throw4055% · 123yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 45 throws (13%), 28 caught (62%), 232 yds, 5.2 per throw4562% · 232yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 19 throws (6%), 10 caught (53%), 168 yds, 8.8 per throw1953% · 168yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 13 throws (4%), 3 caught (23%), 66 yds, 5.1 per throw1323% · 66yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 6 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw60% · 0yLeft, 30+ air yards: 10 throws (3%), 5 caught (50%), 202 yds, 20.2 per throw1050% · 202yMiddle, Behind air yards: 5 throws (1%), 3 caught (60%), 15 yds, 3.0 per throw560% · 15yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 16 throws (5%), 9 caught (56%), 123 yds, 7.7 per throw1656% · 123yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 15 throws (4%), 14 caught (93%), 125 yds, 8.3 per throw1593% · 125yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 16 throws (5%), 8 caught (50%), 127 yds, 7.9 per throw1650% · 127yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 11 throws (3%), 4 caught (36%), 70 yds, 6.4 per throw1136% · 70yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 6 throws (2%), 4 caught (67%), 95 yds, 15.8 per throw667% · 95yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (1%), 2 caught (40%), 94 yds, 18.8 per throw540% · 94yRight, Behind air yards: 14 throws (4%), 11 caught (79%), 22 yds, 1.6 per throw1479% · 22yRight, 0–4 air yards: 47 throws (14%), 33 caught (70%), 219 yds, 4.7 per throw4770% · 219yRight, 5–9 air yards: 25 throws (7%), 20 caught (80%), 160 yds, 6.4 per throw2580% · 160yRight, 10–14 air yards: 13 throws (4%), 6 caught (46%), 106 yds, 8.2 per throw1346% · 106yRight, 15–19 air yards: 5 throws (1%), 1 caught (20%), 22 yds, 4.4 per throw520% · 22yRight, 20–29 air yards: 6 throws (2%), 2 caught (33%), 83 yds, 13.8 per throw633% · 83yRight, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw20% · 0y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on198 throws charted

62% comp9.2 avg. depth5.0 YAC/catch13% 20+ air yds7–6 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 12 throws (6%), 12 caught (100%), 85 yds, 7.1 per throw12100% · 85yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 18 throws (9%), 13 caught (72%), 80 yds, 4.4 per throw1872% · 80yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 16 throws (8%), 9 caught (56%), 87 yds, 5.4 per throw1656% · 87yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 10 throws (5%), 6 caught (60%), 101 yds, 10.1 per throw1060% · 101yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 18 yds, 9.0 per throw250% · 18yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 26 yds, 13.0 per throw250% · 26yLeft, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (2%), 2 caught (67%), 93 yds, 31.0 per throw367% · 93yMiddle, Behind air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), -2 yds, -1.0 per throw250% · -2yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 8 throws (4%), 5 caught (63%), 39 yds, 4.9 per throw863% · 39yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 15 throws (8%), 12 caught (80%), 97 yds, 6.5 per throw1580% · 97yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 12 throws (6%), 7 caught (58%), 113 yds, 9.4 per throw1258% · 113yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 10 throws (5%), 6 caught (60%), 190 yds, 19.0 per throw1060% · 190yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 2 caught (40%), 50 yds, 10.0 per throw540% · 50yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (3%), 3 caught (60%), 131 yds, 26.2 per throw560% · 131yRight, Behind air yards: 14 throws (7%), 9 caught (64%), 48 yds, 3.4 per throw1464% · 48yRight, 0–4 air yards: 24 throws (12%), 16 caught (67%), 105 yds, 4.4 per throw2467% · 105yRight, 5–9 air yards: 17 throws (9%), 12 caught (71%), 119 yds, 7.0 per throw1771% · 119yRight, 10–14 air yards: 10 throws (5%), 6 caught (60%), 98 yds, 9.8 per throw1060% · 98yRight, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 3 caught (50%), 44 yds, 7.3 per throw650% · 44yRight, 20–29 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw20% · 0yRight, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (3%), 1 caught (20%), 33 yds, 6.6 per throw520% · 33y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction191 carries

Left
14%
5.6 YPC · 54% succ.
Middle
67%
3.8 YPC · 38% succ.
Right
19%
5.1 YPC · 62% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced260 carries

Left
14%
4.9 YPC · 56% succ.
Middle
69%
5.6 YPC · 49% succ.
Right
17%
5.0 YPC · 45% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Timmy Chang

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
10Bjorn JurgensenQBFR6' 3"200Orlando, FL
12Micah AlejadoQBSO5' 10"180Las Vegas, NV
14Isaac Jaramilla-PheQBSR6' 1"200Pasadena, CA
16Hazyn BotelhoQBFR6' 0"170Kaneohe, HI
0Cam BarfieldRBSR5' 7"190Las Vegas, NV
1DeVon RiceRBSO5' 9"180Las Vegas, NV
26Sitani MikaeleRBSO5' 11"230Waiahole, HI
28TJ Fo'ilefutuRBFR6' 0"240Peoria, AZ
30James Steffany-FiameRBFR5' 8"175Ewa Beach, HI
31Noah BartleyRBSR5' 9"220Waianae, HI
2Audric HarrisWRJR6' 1"190Bellflower, CA
3Carson BrownWRSR6' 2"200Des Moines, IA
4Jarvis HeimuliWRSO6' 3"200Fort Worth, TX
5Pofele AshlockWRSR6' 2"180Euless, TX
6Kainoa CarvalhoWRFR5' 6"165Laie, HI
7Tre' GriffithsWRSO6' 3"205Keller, TX
11Devin AlvesWRSR6' 3"195Melbourne, FL
13Koa EldredgeWRSR6' 0"190Honolulu, HI
17Nick DelgadilloWRJR6' 0"190Paramount, CA
18Blaze KamokuWRSR5' 6"185Kapolei, HI
19Diezel KamokuWRSO5' 9"185Kapolei, HI
22Titan LacadenWRFR5' 6"175Kapolei, HI
80Robert Haynes IVWRFR6' 2"175Houston, TX
83Josiah FetuiWRSO6' 3"185Ewa Beach, HI
84Dillon BoothWRFR5' 9"180Rosamond, CA
86Brandon GaeaWRFR6' 0"190Honolulu, HI
9Devon TauaefaTESR6' 5"230Honolulu, HI
45Micah Kaonohi-KaihenuiTESR5' 11"255Waimanalo, HI
46Matthew BailiffTEJR6' 1"235Kaysville, UT
74Andrew PriceTEFR6' 5"235Boise, ID
81Frank AbreuTEFR6' 4"235Kula, HI
85Oakie Salave'aTESR6' 2"240Leone, American Samoa
88Anthony HickmanTESO6' 3"235Las Vegas, NV
50Tu'i MutiOLSO6' 1"300La'ie, HI
51Eric McFallOLSO6' 4"305Neiafu, Samoa
52Dean BriskiOLSR6' 5"305Pago Pago, American Samoa
53Kawika HallumsOLFR6' 2"295Aiea, HI
54Jordan KernaghanOLFR6' 3"285Ewa Beach, HI
55Jay Tauala-HarrisOLSO6' 3"290Long Beach, CA
56Boogie HendersonOLSO6' 4"310Los Angeles, CA
57Ethan SpencerOLSR6' 2"300Kailua, HI
58Denaris DeRosa Jr.OLSR6' 3"285Redwood City, CA
60Ezekiel SalanoaOLFR5' 11"290Honolulu, HI
62Lautaimi ManumaOLSO6' 3"300Ewa Beach, HI
65Vake HeheaOLJR6' 4"300Melbourne, Australia
73Lipe MoalaOLJR6' 6"345Riverside, CA
74Vainuupo FanuaeaOLFR6' 4"275Nanakuli, HI
77Uluaki TaukiuveaOLFR6' 5"300West Valley City, UT
79Judah KaioOLSR6' 3"305Kaneohe, HI
10Ka'eo AkanaDLSR6' 3"245Honolulu, HI
26Nazaiah CaravalloDLSO6' 2"235Ewa Beach, HI
51Lesterlaisene LagafuainaDLJR6' 4"245Nu'uuli, American Samoa
52Luther McCoyDLSR6' 5"270St. Johns, FL
55Zoram PeteloDLSO6' 4"270Saleaula, Samoa
56Spencer ElliottDLSR6' 3"255Bend, OR
90Ha'aheo Dela CruzDLSO6' 2"260Honolulu, HI
91Josh SagapoluteleDLJR6' 0"255Waimanalo, HI
95Geoffrey Speight Jr.DLSR6' 1"280Mcdonough, GA
96Iosefa LetuliDLSO6' 5"270Oceanside, CA
97Jordan LynchDLSO6' 3"290College Station, TX
98Tonga PaeaDLJR6' 4"315Auckland, New Zealand
99Ozzy PollardDLSO6' 4"300Carmel, IN
7Julian SmithLBJR6' 0"210Bakersfield, CA
8Matteus IoaneLBSO6' 2"225Wahiawa, HI
11Jamih OtisLBSR5' 11"220Las Vegas, NV
12Wynden Ho'ohuliLBSR6' 3"240Kapolei, HI
17Ben HudsonLBSR6' 2"225Miami, FL
18Zaden MariteragiLBFR6' 1"230Kahuku, HI
31Aisiah PaogofieLBFR6' 1"220Waianae, HI
35Junior FiauiLBSO6' 3"215San Jose, CA
43Alika Cavaco-AmoyLBSO6' 0"215Waimanalo, HI
47Kingston CostalesLBFR5' 11"210Waianae, HI
48Kolo KaululaauLBJR6' 0"215Kaneohe, HI
49Tasi TadioLBJR5' 11"225Wahiawa, HI
0Jeremiah HughesDBJR6' 0"180Las Vegas, NV
1Caleb BrownDBSR6' 1"170Anniston, AL
2Kona MooreDBJR6' 0"190Kapolei, HI
3Joenel FigueroaDBSR6' 0"190Lawrence, MA
4Elijah PalmerDBSR5' 8"185Las Vegas, NV
5Jaylon EdmondDBSO5' 10"170Long Beach, CA
6Zion AllenDBSR6' 1"175Stockton, CA
13Elijah GipsonDBSR6' 0"170Los Angeles, CA
19Kela MooreDBJR6' 0"185Kapolei, HI
21Makana MeyerDBJR5' 9"185Waipahu, HI
22Ezekiel RodriguesDBSO6' 0"195Kaneohe, HI
23Kydel StoneDBFR6' 1"185Chicago, IL
24Kodi DeCambraDBJR5' 11"190Honolulu, HI
27Jahren AlturaDBFR5' 10"175Honolulu, HI
28Marquis RichardsonDBFR6' 2"190Chandler, AZ
29Kainoa OntaiDBJR5' 11"180Manteca, CA
30Avin HoustonDBFR6' 3"185San Antonio, TX
34Brayton CorreaDBFR5' 10"185Honolulu, HI
36Jordan FetuDBJR5' 10"175Ewa Beach, HI
16Hudson BorsariPKFR5' 10"175Las Vegas, NV
98Sean Olvera-HarlePKSR6' 0"205San Juan Capistrano, CA
23Bryce MilfordPSO6' 5"190Melbourne, Australia
43Gannon MillerPFR6' 0"190Boise, ID
47Gehrig HeilPFR6' 1"195Phoenix, AZ
33Jack MowreyLSJR6' 3"235Charlotte, NC
45Nick PangLSSR5' 10"220Honolulu, HI

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2025 (-1.8, #77) · worst: 2015 (-14.5, #121)
-15-10-50FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#77
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far2-61-4#109-11.5-7.2-4.3
20259-45-3#77-1.8-0.3-1.4
20245-73-4#110-8.1-6.9-1.2
20235-83-5#126-12.6-6.0-6.6
20223-102-6#126-13.3-6.4-7.0
20216-73-5#94-4.6-0.1-4.5
20205-44-4#82-2.2-0.8-1.4
201910-55-3#77-1.9+4.2-6.1
20188-65-3#101-7.6+1.6-9.3
20173-91-7#117-12.6-5.4-7.1
20167-74-4#108-9.1-3.3-5.9
20153-100-8#121-14.5-8.8-5.8
20144-93-5#111-9.2-6.7-2.6

Hawai'i's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Nov 3, 12:25 PM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →