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SEC · 2026

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Head coach Jeff Lebby · Davis Wade Stadium
4-42-4 in conference
TDC Rank
#45
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
+6.7
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
+5.2
35th in FBS
Defense
+1.5
58th in FBS
Schedule so far
+11.2
3rd toughest
Projected
6.2-5.8
bowl-eligible 82%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

+6.7 now, -0.7 preseason · up 20 spots since preseason
0+5+10FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8Wk 9#45

Final record odds

6.2-5.8 expected · most likely 6-6 (47%)
4-817%5-747%6-632%7-58-4

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Kamario Taylor
QB · SO · 78th in FBS
1460yds
17 TD · 4 INT
Rushing
Fluff Bothwell
RB · JR · 61st in FBS
563yds
108 car · 3 TD
Receiving
Anthony Evans III
WR · SR · 27th in FBS
666yds
56 rec · 5 TD
Tackles
Tyler Lockhart
LB · SO · 221st in FBS
48tkl
2.5 TFL
Sacks
Jaray Bledsoe
DL · SR · 110th in FBS
3.5sacks
1 hurries
Interceptions
Jalen Smith
LB · JR · 145th in FBS
1INT
0 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 5vs136UL MonroeW 62–13 ›+5.2—ESPNU
2Sep 12@52MinnesotaW 38–13 ›+32.9—CBS
3Sep 19@28South CarolinaCONFW 41–34 ›+22.8—SEC Network
4Sep 26vs18MissouriCONFW 31–24 ›+18.3—SEC Network
5Oct 3vs7AlabamaCONFL 23–56 ›-8.1—ABC
6—Bye
7Oct 17@4LSUCONFL 0–31 ›+2.0—ESPN
8Oct 24vs31OklahomaCONFL 15–23 ›+0.2—SEC Network
9Oct 31@9TexasCONFL 3–31 ›+0.7—ESPN
10Nov 7vs64VanderbiltCONFMississippi State −8.2 · o/u 55.6—71%SEC Network
11Nov 14vs27AuburnCONFAuburn −1.9 · o/u 56.6—45%
12Nov 21vsTennessee Tech FCSMississippi State −23.5 · o/u 58.8—94%SECN+
13Nov 27@10Ole MissCONFOle Miss −18.8 · o/u 62.6—10%ABC

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.09987th+0.14699th
Success rate43.3%57th43.7%103rd
Explosiveness1.22479th1.16330th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate44.2%50th43.8%102nd
Rushing success rate43.5%70th41.3%62nd
Passing success rate44.8%42nd45.8%118th
Explosive run rate14.0%62nd9.2%16th
Explosive pass rate11.0%53rd11.9%113th
Line yards / carry3.1857th3.0878th
Opportunity rate40.2%57th35.4%46th
Stuff rate17.3%75th15.5%101st
Sack rate9.5%132nd6.5%46th
3rd-down conversion42.0%56th44.0%115th
Red-zone TD rate52.2%108th52.0%37th
Havoc rate13.6%73rd14.4%59th
Box score · season totals
Points / game26.682nd28.1103rd
Yards / game408.151st378.092nd
Yards / play5.6268th5.4177th
Pass yards / game246.547th261.5128th
Yards / pass att.7.9045th7.81111th
Completion %64.8%47th68.3%133rd
Rush yards / game161.663rd116.532nd
Yards / carry4.3074th3.4530th
3rd-down conv. %41.5%54th40.9%103rd
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)1.3876th0.88107th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)3.50135th2.6230th
Penalty yards / game70.5117th71.312th

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
9.1
52nd of 138
YAC per catch
5.6
56th of 138
Deep shots (20+)
14%
78th of 138
Shotgun
99%
3rd of 138
No-huddle
88%
21st of 138
QB pressured
14%
54th of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
14%
68th of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
5.9
24th of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws230 throws charted

65% comp9.1 avg. depth5.6 YAC/catch14% 20+ air yds20–6 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 10 throws (4%), 9 caught (90%), 92 yds, 9.2 per throw1090% · 92yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 21 throws (9%), 13 caught (62%), 107 yds, 5.1 per throw2162% · 107yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 18 throws (8%), 12 caught (67%), 139 yds, 7.7 per throw1867% · 139yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 11 yds, 5.5 per throw250% · 11yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 2 caught (50%), 34 yds, 8.5 per throw450% · 34yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 3 caught (43%), 70 yds, 10.0 per throw743% · 70yLeft, 30+ air yards: 8 throws (3%), 1 caught (13%), 43 yds, 5.4 per throw813% · 43yMiddle, Behind air yards: 4 throws (2%), 4 caught (100%), 8 yds, 2.0 per throw4100% · 8yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 9 throws (4%), 7 caught (78%), 62 yds, 6.9 per throw978% · 62yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 5 caught (50%), 65 yds, 6.5 per throw1050% · 65yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 14 throws (6%), 11 caught (79%), 161 yds, 11.5 per throw1479% · 161yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 2 caught (40%), 42 yds, 8.4 per throw540% · 42yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw20% · 0yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (1%), 2 caught (67%), 84 yds, 28.0 per throw367% · 84yRight, Behind air yards: 22 throws (10%), 18 caught (82%), 103 yds, 4.7 per throw2282% · 103yRight, 0–4 air yards: 34 throws (15%), 24 caught (71%), 170 yds, 5.0 per throw3471% · 170yRight, 5–9 air yards: 25 throws (11%), 20 caught (80%), 196 yds, 7.8 per throw2580% · 196yRight, 10–14 air yards: 16 throws (7%), 11 caught (69%), 183 yds, 11.4 per throw1669% · 183yRight, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 3 caught (50%), 85 yds, 14.2 per throw650% · 85yRight, 20–29 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 2 caught (100%), 49 yds, 24.5 per throw2100% · 49yRight, 30+ air yards: 8 throws (3%), 3 caught (38%), 115 yds, 14.4 per throw838% · 115y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on255 throws charted

68% comp7.6 avg. depth5.9 YAC/catch13% 20+ air yds18–2 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 24 throws (9%), 21 caught (88%), 117 yds, 4.9 per throw2488% · 117yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 29 throws (11%), 20 caught (69%), 158 yds, 5.4 per throw2969% · 158yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 12 throws (5%), 7 caught (58%), 61 yds, 5.1 per throw1258% · 61yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 13 throws (5%), 7 caught (54%), 147 yds, 11.3 per throw1354% · 147yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (2%), 3 caught (50%), 57 yds, 9.5 per throw650% · 57yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 6 throws (2%), 2 caught (33%), 54 yds, 9.0 per throw633% · 54yLeft, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (1%), 2 caught (67%), 84 yds, 28.0 per throw367% · 84yMiddle, Behind air yards: 6 throws (2%), 6 caught (100%), 66 yds, 11.0 per throw6100% · 66yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 9 throws (4%), 5 caught (56%), 32 yds, 3.6 per throw956% · 32yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 19 throws (7%), 17 caught (89%), 204 yds, 10.7 per throw1989% · 204yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 1 caught (25%), 21 yds, 5.3 per throw425% · 21yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 1 caught (20%), 20 yds, 4.0 per throw520% · 20yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 3 throws (1%), 2 caught (67%), 69 yds, 23.0 per throw367% · 69yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 6 throws (2%), 1 caught (17%), 44 yds, 7.3 per throw617% · 44yRight, Behind air yards: 27 throws (11%), 25 caught (93%), 177 yds, 6.6 per throw2793% · 177yRight, 0–4 air yards: 31 throws (12%), 22 caught (71%), 138 yds, 4.5 per throw3171% · 138yRight, 5–9 air yards: 24 throws (9%), 19 caught (79%), 172 yds, 7.2 per throw2479% · 172yRight, 10–14 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 5 caught (50%), 65 yds, 6.5 per throw1050% · 65yRight, 15–19 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 2 caught (50%), 38 yds, 9.5 per throw450% · 38yRight, 20–29 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 2 caught (20%), 53 yds, 5.3 per throw1020% · 53yRight, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (2%), 3 caught (75%), 141 yds, 35.3 per throw475% · 141y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction267 carries

Left
14%
6.6 YPC · 58% succ.
Middle
72%
5.5 YPC · 45% succ.
Right
14%
3.7 YPC · 38% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced242 carries

Left
21%
4.4 YPC · 39% succ.
Middle
56%
3.9 YPC · 36% succ.
Right
23%
5.3 YPC · 48% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Jeff Lebby

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
1Kamario TaylorQBSO6' 4"230Macon, MS
8Jaden RashadaQBJR6' 4"195Pittsburg, CA
14Brodie McWhorterQBFR6' 2"220Kingston, GA
15Parker PuckettQBFR6' 0"180Madison, MS
17AJ SwannQBSR6' 2"220Canton, GA
5Xavier GaytenRBJR6' 0"205Brookhaven, MS
21J.J. HillRBFR6' 0"220Tupelo, MS
24Fluff BothwellRBJR5' 10"230Oneonta, AL
25Cooper CrosbyRBFR6' 0"205Gulfport, MS
0Gracen HarrisWRFR5' 11"175Ennis, TX
2Marquis JohnsonWRSR5' 11"190Dickinson, TX
3Anthony Evans IIIWRSR5' 11"190Converse, TX
7Zion RaginsWRSO5' 8"170Macon, GA
9Camden CapehartWRFR5' 8"180Winnsboro, TX
10Bull MitchellWRFR5' 11"210Fort Valley, GA
12Matt MayfieldWRJR6' 2"200Sunset, LA
13Sanfrisco MageeWRSO6' 2"200Mccomb, MS
16Jayden CrationWRFR6' 3"200Canton, MS
19Junior HendersonWRFR6' 4"205Carthage, TX
22Jayytee TaylorWRFR6' 0"195Macon, MS
80Fisher SouthallWRFR6' 2"185Fairhope, AL
81Zion CrumptonWRFR6' 1"165Montgomery, AL
89Jessie Primer IVWRSO6' 0"175Canton, MS
4Zayion CottonTEFR6' 5"230Grenada, MS
84Adam LandTEFR6' 3"230Panama City, FL
85Luke HutchinsonTEFR6' 3"235Nashville, TN
88Joeseph SkipworthTEFR6' 5"225Pace, FL
50LJ PrudhommeOLFR6' 3"330Shreveport, LA
53Dylan SteenOLFR6' 5"315Doral, FL
54Blake SteenOLSR6' 6"340Miami, FL
55Jakheem Shumpert-PerkinsOLJR6' 5"340Plantersville, MS
56Wesley DavisOLSR6' 4"300Collierville, TN
58Miles McVayOLJR6' 6"335East St. Louis, IL
59Tyler MillerOLFR6' 6"335Laurel, MS
60Matthew LefeauOLJR6' 5"350Tacoma, WA
62Jamari FreemanOLSR6' 4"310Fairburn, GA
63Mario NashOLFR6' 4"305De Kalb, MS
65Spencer DowlandOLFR6' 6"300Athens, AL
66Ja'Elyne MatthewsOLFR6' 6"325Toms River, NJ
71Saquon MilesOLJR6' 5"320Greenville, AL
72Canon BooneOLSR6' 4"325Kemah, TX
73Leon Noil Jr.OLFR6' 5"290New Orleans, LA
74Kison ShepardOLJR6' 7"350Memphis, TN
75Isaiah DentOLSO6' 6"330Fulton, MS
76Jayden RossOLFR6' 6"320Ocean Springs, MS
77TJ LockhartOLSO6' 5"350Kilmichael, MS
78DJ ChesterOLJR6' 6"315Conyers, GA
9Jaray BledsoeDLSR6' 4"315Marlin, TX
14Dealyn EvansDLSO6' 5"310Longview, TX
19Micah NickersonDLFR6' 5"260Magnolia, MS
33Douglas Adams IIIDLJR6' 3"240San Francisco, CA
35Kalvin DinkinsDLSR6' 2"320Lake, MS
40Gus CordovaDLSO6' 4"270Austin, TX
42DJ ReedDLJR6' 4"295Columbus, GA
55Colin CoatesDLJR6' 2"320Baltimore, MD
88Tico CrittendonDLFR6' 4"310Lithonia, GA
91Lorenz CammonDLJR6' 4"260Upland, CA
92Kaleb MorrisDLFR6' 4"285Mobile, AL
93Eddie Kelly Jr.DLSR6' 5"288Orlando, FL
97Jayson JenkinsDLSR6' 6"280Bordentown, NJ
99Jamarcus MoyeDLSR6' 5"330Phenix City, AL
49Shawn GeeDESO6' 4"280Birmingham, AL
0Fatt ForrestLBJR6' 2"235Kilmichael, MS
7Zakari TillmanLBSR6' 2"235Florence, MS
10Jalen SmithLBJR6' 2"230Grayson, GA
11Tyler LockhartLBSO6' 2"225Kilmichael, MS
12Ja'Bryis StewartLBSR6' 1"215Crystal Springs, MS
13LaKendrick JamesLBJR6' 2"250Shelby, MS
16Derion GulletteLBJR6' 3"240Marlin, TX
32AJ RiceLBFR6' 1"240Crawford, MS
44Gav HolmanLBFR6' 1"245Uniondale, NY
45James Heard Jr.LBJR6' 2"230Camden, NJ
48Chris AddisonLBFR6' 3"250Winnsboro, LA
47Sean PleasantDBFR6' 2"170Austin, TX
1Kelley JonesCBSR6' 4"205Clarksdale, MS
8Kaylib SingletonCBSO6' 1"190Jacksonville, FL
17Kyle JohnsonCBFR5' 11"185Cottonport, LA
20Jett JeffersonCBJR6' 1"200Tylertown, MS
24Quentin TaylorCBSO6' 0"205Apopka, FL
26Jamroc GrimsleyCBSO6' 2"200Tampa, FL
30Camron BrownCBFR6' 1"180Valdosta, GA
36Terrell Johnson Jr.CBFR6' 2"195Lexington, MS
37Dre OteyCBFR6' 2"185Murfreesboro, TN
38Jaylen AntoineCBFR5' 11"180Bay St. Louis, MS
2Isaac SmithSSR6' 0"220Fulton, MS
3Kendel DolbySSR5' 11"195Springfield, OH
5Jardin GilbertSSR6' 1"195White Castle, LA
18Sekou Smith Jr.SFR6' 0"180Miami, FL
21Dre RileySJR6' 1"185Charleston, MS
25Kolby BarrettSFR6' 2"210Chattanooga, TN
28Tanner JohnsonSSR6' 0"195Kyle, TX
29Boogie JohnsonSSO6' 2"200Hooks, TX
31Terrance LoveSJR6' 2"210Atlanta, GA
34Vic SuttonSJR6' 3"215Madison, MS
48Hayden ChambersPKFR6' 1"205Fort Payne, AL
80Kyle FerriePKSR6' 1"205Searcy, AR
83Oisin FlynnPKFR6' 3"200Dublin, Ireland
8Ethan PulliamPJR6' 1"190Starkville, MS
39Kallen CosperLSFR6' 4"215Kingwood, TX
46Kyle RushingLSFR6' 1"200Mccomb, MS

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2014 (+12.3, #12) · worst: 2024 (-4.2, #92)
-50+5+10+15FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#71
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far4-42-4#45+6.7+5.2+1.5
20255-81-7#71-0.1+3.5-3.6
20242-100-8#92-4.2+0.5-4.7
20235-71-7#77-1.9-3.7+1.8
20229-44-4#18+8.2+4.5+3.7
20217-64-4#58+2.4+0.5+1.9
20204-73-7#75-0.8-3.0+2.2
20196-73-5#44+3.1+1.3+1.8
20188-54-4#10+11.9-1.3+13.3
20179-44-4#20+9.3+2.8+6.5
20166-73-5#56+1.4+3.7-2.2
20159-44-4#10+11.7+6.9+4.8
201410-36-2#12+12.3+6.6+5.7

Mississippi State's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Nov 3, 12:25 PM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →