
The TDC Rating after every week of the season
Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result / TDC line | Game score | Win chance | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3 | vs SE Louisiana FCS | W 24–7 | -6.2 | — | ESPN+ |
| 2 | Sep 10 | vs 92Eastern Michigan | W 49–21 | +17.8 | — | NFL Net |
| 3 | Sep 17 | @ 116Rice | L 21–33 | -18.9 | — | ESPN+ |
| 4 | Sep 24 | @ 117UL MonroeCONF | L 17–21 | -11.0 | — | ESPN+ |
| 5 | Oct 1 | vs 58South AlabamaCONF | L 17–20 | -2.9 | — | ESPN+ |
| 6 | — | Bye | ||||
| 7 | Oct 12 | @ 57MarshallCONF | W 23–13 | +14.8 | — | ESPN2 |
| 8 | Oct 22 | vs 118Arkansas StateCONF | W 38–18 | +8.2 | — | ESPN+ |
| 9 | Oct 27 | @ 88Southern MissCONF | L 24–39 | -16.8 | — | ESPN2 |
| 10 | Nov 5 | vs 42TroyCONF | L 17–23 | -4.4 | — | ESPN+ |
| 11 | Nov 10 | vs 85Georgia SouthernCONF | W 36–17 | +13.0 | — | ESPN2 |
| 12 | Nov 19 | @ 12Florida State | L 17–49 | -13.9 | — | ESPN3 |
| 13 | Nov 26 | @ 114Texas StateCONF | W 41–13 | +18.7 | — | ESPN+ |
| Bowls | Dec 23 | vs 54HoustonNEUTRAL | L 16–23 | -3.9 | — | ESPN |
Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted
| Stat | Offense | FBS rank | Defense (allowed) | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play) | ||||
| Success rate | 40.7% | 93rd | 41.0% | 38th |
| Rushing success rate | 43.8% | 79th | 44.9% | 71st |
| Passing success rate | 37.9% | 95th | 37.5% | 22nd |
| Explosive run rate | 15.8% | 37th | 9.9% | 8th |
| Explosive pass rate | 8.4% | 105th | 8.7% | 31st |
| Line yards / carry | 3.19 | 51st | 3.13 | 71st |
| Opportunity rate | 43.8% | 15th | 38.8% | 69th |
| Stuff rate | 18.1% | 95th | 15.2% | 83rd |
| Sack rate | 4.4% | 37th | 6.1% | 61st |
| 3rd-down conversion | 37.4% | 94th | 40.7% | 76th |
| Red-zone TD rate | 52.6% | 102nd | 55.3% | 41st |
| Havoc rate | 8.2% | 58th | 8.9% | 55th |
| Box score · season totals | ||||
| Points / game | 26.0 | 82nd | 23.0 | 38th |
| Yards / game | 364.2 | 90th | — | — |
| Yards / play | 5.14 | 93rd | — | — |
| Pass yards / game | 222.5 | 79th | — | — |
| Yards / pass att. | 6.54 | 106th | — | — |
| Completion % | 57.2% | 99th | — | — |
| Rush yards / game | 141.7 | 78th | — | — |
| Yards / carry | 4.04 | 74th | — | — |
| 3rd-down conv. % | 38.5% | 75th | — | — |
| Turnovers / game (lost · forced) | 1.38 | 56th | — | — |
| Sacks / game (allowed · made) | 1.85 | 51st | — | — |
| Penalty yards / game | 55.7 | 77th | — | — |
69 players who recorded a stat in 2022 (from box scores)
Final ratings for 2022, built with the same model as the current season. ESPN’s 2022 box scores are missing most defensive stats, so players’ tackles, TFL, sacks and breakups are rebuilt from the play-by-play (they run about 10% below official totals). Ratings are in points on a neutral field. All 2022 power rankings →