The TDC Rating after every week of the season
Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result / TDC line | Game score | Win chance | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | vs 74Purdue | W 34–31 | -1.2 | — | CBSSN |
| 2 | Sep 7 | @ 12Oregon | L 6–77 | -24.5 | — | PACN |
| 3 | Sep 14 | vs Weber State FCS | W 19–13 | -16.4 | — | ESPN3 |
| 4 | Sep 21 | @ 128UTEP | W 37–21 | -2.2 | — | ESPN3 |
| 5 | Sep 28 | vs 77Hawai'iCONF | L 3–54 | -38.0 | — | ESPN2 |
| 6 | — | Bye | ||||
| 7 | Oct 12 | vs 104San José StCONF | W 41–38 | -6.0 | — | |
| 8 | Oct 19 | @ 69Utah StateCONF | L 10–36 | -23.2 | — | ESPNU |
| 9 | Oct 26 | @ 51WyomingCONF | L 3–31 | -21.5 | — | |
| 10 | Nov 2 | vs 122New MexicoCONF | W 21–10 | -5.4 | — | ESPNU |
| 11 | Nov 9 | @ 54San Diego StateCONF | W 17–13 | +7.6 | — | ESPN2 |
| 12 | — | Bye | ||||
| 13 | Nov 23 | @ 79Fresno StateCONF | W 35–28 | +7.4 | — | ESPN2 |
| 14 | Nov 30 | vs 118UNLVCONF | L 30–33 | -16.7 | — | |
| Bowls | Jan 3 | vs 58OhioNEUTRAL | L 21–30 | -8.9 | — | ESPN |
Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted
| Stat | Offense | FBS rank | Defense (allowed) | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play) | ||||
| Success rate | 39.3% | 104th | 41.1% | 52nd |
| Rushing success rate | 37.3% | 121st | 41.5% | 43rd |
| Passing success rate | 40.9% | 78th | 40.6% | 60th |
| Explosive run rate | 12.9% | 101st | 15.4% | 77th |
| Explosive pass rate | 10.5% | 69th | 12.7% | 104th |
| Line yards / carry | 2.63 | 118th | 2.90 | 54th |
| Opportunity rate | 33.1% | 121st | 36.7% | 46th |
| Stuff rate | 19.9% | 82nd | 20.5% | 43rd |
| Sack rate | 5.5% | 58th | 4.6% | 103rd |
| 3rd-down conversion | 37.2% | 99th | 35.1% | 24th |
| Red-zone TD rate | 45.5% | 124th | 64.9% | 81st |
| Havoc rate | 13.8% | 95th | 12.8% | 67th |
| Box score · season totals | ||||
| Points / game | 21.3 | 115th | 31.9 | 98th |
| Yards / game | 365.3 | 101st | — | — |
| Yards / play | 4.85 | 113th | — | — |
| Pass yards / game | 249.7 | 51st | — | — |
| Yards / pass att. | 6.49 | 108th | — | — |
| Completion % | 62.0% | 48th | — | — |
| Rush yards / game | 115.6 | 122nd | — | — |
| Yards / carry | 3.37 | 124th | — | — |
| 3rd-down conv. % | 36.7% | 96th | — | — |
| Turnovers / game (lost · forced) | 1.85 | 112th | — | — |
| Sacks / game (allowed · made) | 2.54 | 103rd | — | — |
| Penalty yards / game | 59.4 | 89th | — | — |
68 players who recorded a stat in 2019 (from box scores)
Final ratings for 2019, built with the same model as the current season. ESPN’s 2019 box scores are missing most defensive stats, so players’ tackles, TFL, sacks and breakups are rebuilt from the play-by-play (they run about 10% below official totals). Ratings are in points on a neutral field. All 2019 power rankings →