
The TDC Rating after every week of the season
Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result / TDC line | Game score | Win chance | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 4 | vs Gardner-Webb FCS | W 30–25 | -16.6 | — | ESPN3 |
| 2 | Sep 11 | @ 91Florida Atlantic | L 6–38 | -28.8 | — | |
| 3 | Sep 18 | @ 25Arkansas | L 10–45 | -18.1 | — | SEC Network |
| 4 | Sep 25 | vs 31LouisianaCONF | L 20–28 | -3.9 | — | ESPN+ |
| 5 | Oct 2 | vs 120Arkansas StateCONF | W 59–33 | +10.4 | — | ESPN+ |
| 6 | Oct 9 | @ 101TroyCONF | L 24–27 | -6.5 | — | ESPN+ |
| 7 | Oct 14 | @ 99South AlabamaCONF | L 14–41 | -28.1 | — | ESPNU |
| 8 | — | Bye | ||||
| 9 | Oct 30 | vs 69Georgia StateCONF | L 14–21 | -9.6 | — | ESPN+ |
| 10 | Nov 6 | vs 28Coastal CarolinaCONF | L 8–28 | -15.7 | — | ESPN+ |
| 11 | Nov 13 | @ 116Texas StateCONF | W 38–30 | -0.9 | — | ESPN+ |
| 12 | Nov 20 | vs 26BYU | L 17–34 | -12.2 | — | ESPN+ |
| 13 | Nov 27 | @ 20Appalachian StateCONF | L 3–27 | -13.9 | — | ESPN+ |
Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted
| Stat | Offense | FBS rank | Defense (allowed) | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play) | ||||
| Success rate | 36.5% | 122nd | 45.1% | 85th |
| Rushing success rate | 38.5% | 119th | 43.8% | 62nd |
| Passing success rate | 33.2% | 121st | 46.3% | 102nd |
| Explosive run rate | 12.8% | 95th | 15.4% | 81st |
| Explosive pass rate | 7.4% | 122nd | 14.5% | 123rd |
| Line yards / carry | 2.96 | 98th | 3.27 | 91st |
| Opportunity rate | 35.7% | 97th | 40.8% | 94th |
| Stuff rate | 15.6% | 61st | 13.4% | 101st |
| Sack rate | 7.3% | 90th | 7.5% | 32nd |
| 3rd-down conversion | 35.8% | 109th | 36.9% | 37th |
| Red-zone TD rate | 47.8% | 116th | 65.5% | 95th |
| Havoc rate | 11.0% | 111th | 8.3% | 83rd |
| Box score · season totals | ||||
| Points / game | 20.3 | 116th | 31.4 | 98th |
| Yards / game | 340.4 | 106th | 442.0 | 108th |
| Yards / play | 4.87 | 108th | 6.23 | 113th |
| Pass yards / game | 147.1 | 124th | 273.9 | 125th |
| Yards / pass att. | 6.42 | 111th | 8.57 | 119th |
| Completion % | 51.3% | 124th | 61.9% | 82nd |
| Rush yards / game | 193.3 | 34th | 153.3 | 69th |
| Yards / carry | 4.33 | 63rd | 4.38 | 85th |
| 3rd-down conv. % | 35.3% | 102nd | — | — |
| Turnovers / game (lost · forced) | 1.42 | 68th | — | — |
| Sacks / game (allowed · made) | 2.25 | 66th | 2.25 | 61st |
| Penalty yards / game | 45.3 | 36th | — | — |
59 players who recorded a stat in 2021 (from box scores)
Final ratings for 2021, built with the same model as the current season. ESPN’s 2021 box scores are missing most defensive stats, so players’ tackles, TFL, sacks and breakups are rebuilt from the play-by-play (they run about 10% below official totals). Ratings are in points on a neutral field. All 2021 power rankings →